Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 24, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FROM A BORING BIOTECH TO A TRAILBLAZING PIONEER)
(VRTX), (ABBV), (MRNA), (CRSP), (EDIT), (BEAM), (NTLA)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 24, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FROM A BORING BIOTECH TO A TRAILBLAZING PIONEER)
(VRTX), (ABBV), (MRNA), (CRSP), (EDIT), (BEAM), (NTLA)
When will the turmoil in the stock market come to an end? Unfortunately, nobody can offer a definitive answer.
At this point, there’s still no end in sight to high inflation, climbing interest rates, and the continuing war in Ukraine.
Needless to say, all these issues are affecting the stock market. However, not all stocks are getting negatively affected by the turmoil.
There are still relatively safe bets to buy, with some crushing the market these days.
One of them is Vertex (VRTX).
Vertex stock soared by over 30% year-to-date by mid-April.
While it has given up some of that gain in the past weeks, this biotechnology and healthcare stock is comfortably outperforming the rest of the market, with its shares still up by around 15%.
One reason for Vertex’s good performance is its undisputed monopoly in the cystic fibrosis (CF) market. In fact, its closest potential competitor is AbbVie (ABBV), which recently announced disappointing results for its Phase 2 trials for a CF combo.
This means Vertex’s dominance in the CF space is set to go on for quite some time.
Here’s a bit of background. Vertex has 4 CF treatments.
Among these, the latest treatment, Trikafta, generates the lion’s share of the profits. It raked in $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2022 alone, with the total revenue for the entire CF pipeline recording $2 billion.
Considering its approved indications and potential approvals, Trikafta is anticipated to treat 90% of the entire CF patient population.
Looking at its current performance and how strong its hold is in the CF market, it appears that Vertex’s prediction that it can sustain its dominance in this segment until at least the late 2030s will be proven right.
Moreover, it’s evident that Trikafta has yet to reach its peak revenue. However, Vertex isn’t depending on this particular treatment alone.
Rather, the company is working on developing a worthy competitor to this top-selling treatment.
That is, Vertex is working on a CF candidate that may potentially be even more effective than Trikafta.
So far, this new drug candidate not only has the capacity to beat Trikafta in terms of efficacy but also offers a more convenient option.
Trikafta is a twice-a-day oral drug that comes in the form of 3 tablets. Meanwhile, this potential competitor is a once-a-day alternative.
If everything goes according to plan, the Phase 3 trial for this Trikafta challenger could start by the end of 2022 or early 2023.
This means that the closest potential rival for the company’s top-selling treatment is its own candidate.
Apart from this, Vertex is working with Moderna (MRNA) to come up with an mRNA therapy for CF patients.
The goal is to offer an alternative option to patients who are not eligible for the current CF therapies.
Although this continued dominance in the CF sector is already a good enough reason to buy Vertex shares, they may be an even better one.
To date, Vertex has at least 6 programs queued in mid to late-stage clinical studies, all of which are projected to become multi-billion dollar revenue streams.
Outside its CF segment, Vertex could have another big winner in the form of gene-editing treatment CTX001.
This is a treatment for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia that the company has been working on with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).
While CTX001 is promising, it won’t be entering the gene therapy market without any competition. It has to battle the likes of Editas (EDIT), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), and Intellia (NTLA).
Nonetheless, CTX001, if approved, is a game-changer because it is developed as a one-time cure for genetic blood disorders.
So far, trial results have been positive, and the collaborating duo is expected to file for regulatory approval by the end of 2022 and possibly launch the product by the first half of 2023.
This gene-editing therapy is a significant milestone for Vertex, with CTX001 expected to become another blockbuster, raking in roughly $1 billion in annual sales for the company even after giving CRISPR its share of the profits.
Recently, Vertex added another $900 million to its collaboration with CRISPR to boost its share from 50% to 60%, indicating that it values CTX001 at roughly $10 billion.
Other critical treatments outside the CF space are VX548, an opioid alternative targeting acute pain, and VX800, a stem cell-derived therapy developed to treat Type 1 diabetes.
Vertex has been accused as a company scared of getting out of its comfort zone for quite some time.
With these new ventures, Vertex has become something of a pioneer—a strategy that is projected to open long-term and lucrative revenue streams for the company.
Overall, all these efforts paint an obvious picture. That is, Vertex is a well-balanced company with a main business that capably and reliably generates billions and is complemented by an exciting pipeline that holds the potential to replicate the success of its already established portfolio.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 19, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A PASSIVE INCOME STOCK THAT STEADILY DELIVERS)
(ABBV), (ABT), (AMGN), (BIIB)
Even the most aggressive and high-risk investor would appreciate a passive income.
Now would be an excellent time to consider stocks that could offer robust returns throughout your lifetime for those with some cash stored up.
One stock that fits this description is AbbVie (ABBV).
Spun off from Abbott Labs (ABT) in 2013, AbbVie is widely recognized as a dependable Dividend King thanks to its 50-year track record of consecutive dividend increases. Since going solo, it has boosted its dividend by over 250%.
In the latest report, AbbVie’s annual dividend has reached $5.64 per share and is paid at a yield of 3.71%. This is roughly double the 1.86% long-term average of the S&P 500.
In the first-quarter earnings report, AbbVie’s year-over-year revenue climbed by 4.1% to reach $13.5 billion, pushing its earnings higher by 9%.
However, the company’s shares declined by approximately 10% after these results were released.
While the update wasn’t that disappointing, the impending patent loss of AbbVie’s top-selling rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira affected the market’s perception.
In fact, sales of Humira have already started to weaken, falling by 2.7% year-over-year to report $4.7 billion.
This report is hardly shocking, especially since the drug continues to battle it out against the generic competition.
Actually, Amgen (AMGN) and Biogen (BIIB) already have approved biosimilar versions of Humira out in the market since 2018.
Humira sales are anticipated to continue to fall in 2023 when the drug loses its patent exclusivity. Its competitors have started to apply for FDA approvals in the US for their biosimilars of this blockbuster treatment.
Another reason for the sell-off of AbbVie shares following its first-quarter results is the drop in sales of other products, particularly Imbruvica.
Since the competition in the oncology sector has become more intense, this treatment struggled to keep its share, resulting in a 7.4% decline in its revenue year-over-year to report $1.2 billion.
Although the decline in the sales of any company’s product is never a good sign, it should be noted that Imbruvica has been dealing with various issues even prior to this quarter.
In 2021, the global sales for Imbruvica only exhibited a meager 1.8% increase to reach $5.4 billion.
Like what happened in the first quarter of 2022, this unimpressive contribution also resulted from more intense competition.
The good news is that the critical products anticipated to offset the decline of Humira sales continue to reap excellent results.
AbbVie showed off a 21% year-over-year boost in revenue across its neuroscience and aesthetics segment, which was led by the solid performance of the recently launched migraine drug Ubrelvy as well as the in-demand Botox Cosmetic and Juvederm.
Meanwhile, momentum continues to grow for immunosuppressants Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are projected to have practically all the major indications earned by Humira.
In the first quarter, Skyrizi sales went up 63.7% to reach $940 million while Rinvoq recorded a 53.6% increase to rake in $465 million.
Looking at their trajectory, both products are estimated to generate over $15 billion in sales in 2025.
These are promising numbers for AbbVie’s immunology segment. Plus, bear in mind that Humira actually hit peak sales in 2021 at $20.7 billion.
That means this treatment can still contribute meaningfully to the company. After all, it’s highly unlikely that Humira sales would immediately drop to zero just because generics start to infiltrate the US market.
Needless to say, AbbVie’s portfolio appears to be increasingly well-prepared for a post-Humira era.
Given that its revenue and earnings clearly show growth, and a strategy firmly in place to continue expanding its portfolio, AbbVie can easily sustain its yearly dividend boosts and offer passive income to its shareholders for many years.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 17, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A BIOTECH PIONEER WITH AN ENDURING LEGACY)
(AMGN), (AZN), (ABBV)
Forever is a long time, and the move to buy and hold stocks for good is a decision that should never be approached lightly.
How can you guarantee that a company is capable of delivering solid numbers every year?
One way to approach this is to consider stocks with a long history, especially when these businesses are frontrunners in steadily growing industries that are on track to keep developing and expanding in the next few years.
In the biotechnology and healthcare sector, a name that fits the bill is Amgen (AMGN).
Amgen is a pioneer in the biotechnology sector, with the company developing innovative treatments in oncology, inflammatory conditions, and biosimilars since the early 1980s.
For the past 12 months, Amgen has generated roughly $24.4 billion in revenues globally.
Its first-quarter results for 2022 showed a respectable 6% year-over-year increase thanks to the double-digit growth of its key drug programs. In effect, the company also reported a 15% rise in its adjusted earnings per share.
In particular, the main growth drivers during this quarter are Repatha, which was up 15% to reach $329 million, Evenity, up by 59% to rake in $170 million, and Prolia, up by 12% to report $852 million.
Amgen prides itself on many products, with revenues growing by double-digit percentages, with several newer treatments in the lineup projected to drive top-line growth for an extended period.
Aside from the potential of Prolia, Evenity, and Repatha, Amgen and AstraZeneca’s (AZN) collaborative work, asthma medication Tezspire, and non-small cell lung cancer treatment Lumakras are anticipated to become top-selling products as well.
Approved in almost 40 countries, Lumakras is expected to gain more regulatory approval in the coming years, making the argument for its blockbuster potential stronger than ever.
On top of these, Amgen has over 24 programs queued for clinical trials, with the company continuously bolstering its pipeline.
Meanwhile, its biosimilar arm is growing with 5 high-quality treatments already out on the market and an additional 6 more expected to be launched from 2023 to 2030.
Among the biosimilars in the lineup, perhaps the most exciting and possibly most profitable would be the biosimilar to AbbVie’s (ABBV) mega-blockbuster Humira. Looking at the timeline, Amgen’s candidate should be out by January 2023.
Apart from being a good defensive stock, Amgen is also a great option for income-seeking investors.
This biotech titan offers a 3.08% dividend yield, which is starkly better than the S&P 500’s 1.37%.
Meanwhile, its cash dividend payout of roughly 47.88% is conservative enough to guarantee that the company manages to sustain dividend boosts in the following years.
Over the past 3 years, Amgen’s payouts have increased by 33.79%—and there’s more where that came from.
Lifesaving treatments are crucial to patients, and available therapies for several conditions can always be improved upon. Moreover, there are many diseases with no approved drugs just yet.
In addition, the global population is aging. The number of people aged 60 and above is expected to approximately double by 2050.
This means that the spending on prescription drugs would also go up as the demographic ages.
Hence, companies like Amgen are anticipated to enjoy an even bigger target market in the coming decade.
Those are strong reasons that ensure the longevity of the businesses in the healthcare sector. For high-quality companies, these can serve as excellent catalysts not only for continuous revenue generation but also for potential blockbuster treatments.
As the largest biotechnology company in terms of market capitalization, Amgen continues to deliver positive returns and promise stability to its shareholders amid all the chaos and uncertainties.
With an excellent dividend, bolstered with a solid pipeline, key franchise programs, and lineup, Amgen is a great target for investors looking for stocks to buy and hold for a long time.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 12, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN UNDERRATED PREMIUM HEALTHCARE STOCK)
(ABT), (DXCM), (MDT)
The healthcare industry is a complex system. Nevertheless, it's an exciting space filled with opportunities valued at almost $12 trillion globally.
Healthcare needs are practically guaranteed never to disappear. Moreover, there will always be a consistent demand for expansion and innovation as patients look for more effective treatments and therapies.
This could signify several up-and-coming budding companies in the following years.
However, it's vital to keep tabs on the well-established blue-chip stocks in the healthcare world.
After all, these names have proved their worth for decades, evolving with the industry and developing innovative drugs and services to stay at the forefront of the field.
One name that fits that description is Abbott Laboratories (ABT).
There are many reasons why Abbott is an outstanding stock to buy. One excellent reason is its long history, as it goes way back to the late 1800s.
Admittedly, that reason alone isn't enough to promise a bright future. But, the fact that Abbott managed to sustain its growth and remain competitive for decades speaks volumes of the stock's quality.
Another appeal of Abbott to investors, which is unlikely to change anytime soon, is its diversified portfolio. The company produces virtually everything from COVID-19 diagnostic tools to surgical equipment and medical devices targeting diabetes.
Moreover, Abbott has developed a solid relationship with healthcare professionals and facilities. This establishes brand recognition, which arms it with a decisive competitive advantage.
With over $43 billion in trailing 12-month revenue, its portfolio of products is so extensive and popular in the healthcare field that it's difficult to imagine a future where a particular failure in any market would severely damage its share price.
That makes AbbVie a remarkably safer stock compared to many of its peers in the healthcare sector.
The first three months of 2022 saw Abbott Laboratories record $11.9 billion in revenue, showing off a 13.8% year-over-year climb.
The diagnostic sales segment grew with a 32% increase year-over-year, with roughly $3.3 billion of the amount generated from COVID-19 diagnostic tools.
Apart from this, other segments of the business posted good numbers. For instance, the company's established pharmaceuticals and medical device sector climbed by over 7% in the first quarter.
The only business arm that failed to record an increase in revenue is its nutritional segment, which fell by 7% primarily due to product recalls and the unfavorable conditions in the Chinese market.
Although the quarterly revenue of Abbott isn't growing as fast as other healthcare companies, this shouldn't be an alarming concern.
Actually, this is effectively this industry titan's norm.
Besides, the moment a company reaches a market capitalization of more than $211.6 billion, it's challenging to continue making more money at a similar rate as the years when it was a smaller firm.
Meanwhile, a key revenue growth segment for Abbott is diabetes care.
Thanks to its FreeStyle Libre franchise, Abbott has established a notable presence in the diabetes market, particularly in the glucose monitoring (CGM) systems.
Based on the first-quarter report, sales from the diabetes segment jumped by 14.9% to record $1.1 billion.
From this, the FreeStyle Libre franchise raked in $1 billion in revenue, showing off an impressive 20.4% increase year-over-year.
CGM gadgets allow diabetes patients to conveniently and automatically track their own blood glucose levels. Evidently, the fast adoption of this technology is driving sales of the FreeStyle Libre.
Thus far, Abbott Laboratories is nowhere near entirely dominating the CGM market, with the likes of DexCom (DXCM) and Medtronic (MDT) still capable of contesting its market share.
Considering that this is only the first-quarter sales, though, it's incredible to watch how far the FreeStyle Libre franchise could go.
For context, this portfolio brought in annual revenue of $2.6 billion in 2020 and grew by 35.8% the following year to bring in $3.7 billion in 2021.
Finally, Abbott is an excellent option for income-seeking investors. This business is widely considered a Dividend King, increasing its payouts for an impressive 50 years.
Looking at the past five years, Abbott's dividend was raised by over 77%. Given its rapidly increasing cash flow, it's clear that it has a strong capacity to continue paying out dividends.
The market has been experiencing stomach-churning rough patches as more and more companies struggle with supply chain disruptions and increasing interest rates. This is just the kind of environment where Abbott thrives.
This company has a 10-year return of 378% that easily beats the market's 282%, making Abbott a stock that many investors aspire to own.
Between its steadily climbing dividend payouts, consistent flow of innovative products, and the capacity to hold its title as one of the largest healthcare companies worldwide, it's clear to see the reason for investors' confidence in this stock: all these benefits could make any shareholder wealthy over time.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 19, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A RELIABLE STOCK THAT CAN WITHSTAND ANY GLOBAL SHOCKWAVE)
(JNJ), (PFE), (VTRS), (MRK), (OGN), (ABBV), (ABT), (NVO)
Investing is a long-term bet that requires patience and a strong risk appetite to enjoy eventual big wins.
In a world filled with uncertainties and gambles in the ever-evolving stock market trends, risk-averse investors are on the lookout for secure and stable options.
After all, who wouldn’t want to invest their hard-earned cash in a stock that can survive even the most intense macroeconomic shocks?
The name that easily fits these criteria in the biotechnology and healthcare sector is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
Reviewing JNJ’s five-year price movements from 2017 until 2022, a steady bullish trend of roughly 46% growth can be seen.
This trend has continued amid the slowdowns, with the stock delivering consistent growth and recovery despite serious dips.
In early 2020, when the COVID-19 outbreak wreaked havoc on the global economy, JNJ tanked along with other stocks. However, the company steadily showed signs of recovery mere weeks following the outbreak.
By 2021, JNJ managed to record a substantial increase of 11.4%. More importantly, it was able to sustain that trend throughout the year.
In March 2022, when the Ukraine-Russia crisis disrupted the economy, several businesses in the industry once again crashed due to supply chain and logistical issues. Amid these disruptions, JNJ still managed to stay on its growth path and develop contingencies to protect its assets.
Widely known as a global healthcare titan, JNJ holds a market capitalization that is hovering close to roughly half a trillion dollars.
As the parent company of the top-rated brands like Benadryl, Listerine, and Neutrogena, JNJ’s market operations are trifurcated into three main segments: MedTech, Pharmaceutical, and Consumer Health.
In November 2021, the company disclosed its plans to spin off its consumer arm into a separate publicly-traded company.
Similar to the move of Pfizer (PFE) with its Viatris (VTRS) spinoff and Merck (MRK) with Organon (OGN), JNJ’s goal is to reclassify a number of its international OTC drugs from its Consumer Health branch to form part of the pipeline of the new spinoff company.
Needless to say, the company’s notably diversified portfolio provides its with a competitive advantage in this highly volatile market.
Meanwhile, its other two segments are also contributing to JNJ’s growth. Its Pharmaceutical branch recorded a 6.3% increase in revenue in the first quarter of 2022, while its MedTech segment grew by 5.9%.
In total, JNJ’s sales for the first quarter of 2022 rose by 5% to reach $23.4 billion. This also boosted the company’s earnings per share to $2.67.
Riding the momentum of its strong first-quarter showing this year, JNJ once again demonstrated why it is hailed as a Dividend King.
The company hiked its quarterly dividend by 6.6% to $1.13 per share, making this the 60th consecutive annual dividend increase.
Considering that the company has been paying out dividends since 1963, this latest increase is indicative of how safe JNJ is for investors who want to multiply their cash while earning a regular income via dividends.
Moreover, JNJ is a clear frontrunner in the healthcare world and continues to work on innovative solutions to keep it ahead of its competitors.
Taking a closer look at the broader competitive field of healthcare industry players that are considered similarly sized, like AbbVie (ABBV), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Novo Nordisk (NVO), JNJ has the most significant market capitalization.
In this aspect, the company is the largest among its direct rivals. Therefore, it essentially reinforces its capacity to raise finances.
Given its perpetual bullish climb since its trade initiation back in 1982 and its addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), JNJ stock has been long known to hold strong credibility.
Actually, JNJ and Microsoft (MSFT) are the only two American companies with an AAA credit rating, a grade above the United States government itself.
This means that JNJ has such a strong sense of certainty in debt repayment that it holds a lower probability of default than the US government—an entity allowed by law to print money.
Overall, JNJ has proven to be an excellent option for risk-averse investors searching for growth and profitability.
It has strong financial fundamentals and a commanding market position, making it a highly stable and secure investment.
Moreover, its diverse portfolio minimizes the risk exposure of the company. All these make JNJ a great buy. Hence, it would be a wise move to buy the dip.
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.