Global Market Comments
July 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(SATURDAY, AUGUST 5, 2023 ROME, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Global Market Comments
July 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(SATURDAY, AUGUST 5, 2023 ROME, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Rome, Italy at 12:30 PM on Saturday, August 5, 2023. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $286.
I’ll be arriving on time and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive private restaurant in the heart of historic Rome, right on the beautiful Piazza Navona. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click the BUY NOW! button above or click here.
Global Market Comments
July 13, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(TUESDAY, AUGUST 1, 2023 FLORENCE, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Florence Italy on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $287.
I’ll be arriving on time and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel in the heart of Old Florence near the Medici Palace and the Uffizi Gallery. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click the BUY NOW! button above or click here.
In the run-up to every options expiration, which is the third Friday of every month, there is a possibility that any short options positions you have may get assigned or called away.
If that happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.
Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.
The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.
Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away. I’ll use the example of the Microsoft (MSFT) December 2019 $134-$137 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread.
For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 8 days before the December 20 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $4.50 last week is now $5.00!
All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (MSFT) December 134 calls to close out your short position in the (MSFT) December $137 calls.
This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same expiration date, the same amount of contracts in the same stock, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.
Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
To say it another way, you bought the (MSFT) at $134 and sold it at $137, paid $2.60 for the right to do so, so your profit is 40 cents, or ($0.40 X 100 shares X 38 contracts) = $1,520. Not bad for an 18-day limited risk play.
Sounds like a good trade to me.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.
A call owner may need to buy a long (MSFT) position after the close, and exercising his long December $134 call is the only way to execute it.
Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.
There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it. They’ll tell you to take delivery of your long stock and then most additional margin to cover the risk.
Either that, or you can just sell your shares on the following Monday and take on a ton of risk over the weekend. This generates a ton of commission for the brokers but impoverishes you.
There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. It doesn’t pay. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many legal ways to steal money that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
Calling All Options!
Global Market Comments
July 12, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(WHAT THE NEXT RECESSION WILL LOOK LIKE),
(FB), (AAPL), (NFLX), (GOOGL), (KSS), (VIX), (MS), (GS),
(TESTIMONIAL)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Global Market Comments
July 11, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 19, 2023 LONDON, ENGLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MEET THE GREEKS)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London at 12:30 PM on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. A three-course lunch is included. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $298.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club on St. James Street, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here or click on the Buy Now! above.
Hang around any professional options trading desk and it will only be seconds before you hear the terms Delta, Theta, Gamma, or Vega. No, they are not reminiscing about their good old fraternity or sorority days (Go Delta Sigma Phi!).
These are all symbols for mathematical explanations of how options prices behave when something changes. They provide additional tools for understanding the price action of options and can greatly enhance your own trading performance.
Bottom line: they are all additional ways to make money trading options.
The best part about the Greeks is that they are all displayed on your online options trading platform FOR FREE! So if you can read a number off a screen, you gain several new advantages in the options trading world.
Deltas
The simplest and most basic Greek symbol to comprehend is the Delta. An option delta is a prediction of how much the option price will change relative to a change in the underlying security.
Here it is easiest to teach by example. Let’s go back to our (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option. Let’s assume that (AAPL) shares are trading at $110, and our call option is worth $2.00.
If (APPL) share rises $1 from $110 to $111, the call options will rise by 50 cents to $2.50. This is because an at-the-money call option has a delta of +0.50, or +50%. In other words, the (AAPL) call options will rise by 50% or half of the amount of the (AAPL) shares.
Let’s say you bought (AAPL) shares because you expect them to rise 10% going into the next big earnings announcement. How much will the above-mentioned call options rise?
That’s easy. A call option with a delta of 50% will rise by half the amount of the shares. So if (AAPL) shares rise by 10% from $110 to $121, the call options will appreciate by half this dollar amount, or $5.50. This means that the call options should jump in price from $2.00 to $7.50, a gain of 375%.
By the way, did I mention that I love trading options?
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
50% delta X $11 stock gain = $5.50
$2.00 option cost + $5.50 option price increase = $7.50
Deltas - the downside
Now let’s look at the Put side of the equation. Let's assume that Apple is about to disappoint terribly in their next earnings report and that the stock is about to FALL 10%.
We want to buy the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike put option, which will profit when the stock falls. Remember, put options are always more expensive than call options because investors are always willing to pay a premium for downside protection. So our put options here should cost about $4.00.
If we’re right and Apple shares tank 10%, from $110 to $99, how much will the put options increase in value?
We use the same arithmetic as with the call options. An at-the-money put option also has a delta of 0.50, or 50%. So the put options will capture half the downside move of the stock, or $5.50. Add this to our $4.00 cost, and our put option should now be worth $9.50, a gain of 237.5%.
Did I happen to tell you that I love trading options?
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike put option
50% delta X $11 stock decline = $5.50
$4.00 option cost + $5.50 option price increase = $9.50
Selling Options short and deltas
Let’s consider one more example, the short position. Let’s assume that Apple shares are going to fall, but we don’t know by how much, or how soon.
In that case, you are better off selling short a call option than buying a put option. That way, if the stock only falls by a small amount, or goes nowhere, you can still make a profit.
When you sell short an option, your broker PAYS you the premium, which sits in your account until you close the position.
Short positions in options always have negative deltas. So a short position in the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option will have a delta of -50%.
Let’s say you sold short the (AAPL) calls for $2.00 and Apple shares fell by 10%. What does the short position in the call option do? Since it has a delta of -50%, it will drop by half, from $2.00 to $1.00 and you will make a profit of $1.00.
Here is the beauty of short position options. Let’s assume that (AAPL) stock doesn’t move at all. It just sits there at $110 right through the options expiration date of June 17, 2016.
Then the value of the call option you sold at $2.00 goes to zero. Your broker closes out the expired position from your account and frees up your margin requirement.
Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? In fact, the numbers are so attractive that a large proportion of professional traders only engage in selling short options to earn a living.
To accomplish this, they usually have mainframe computers, highly skilled programmers, and teams of mathematicians backing them up which cost tens of millions of dollars a year.
However, there is a catch.
When you sell short a call option, you are taking on UNLIMITED RISK. The position is said to be naked, or unhedged. Let’s say you sell short the (AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option, and (AAPL) shares, instead of falling, RISE from $110 to $200, a gain of $90.
Then the value of your short position with the -50% delta soars from $2.00 to $45.00. You will get wiped out. It gets worse. The delta on this option is only 50% for the immediate move above $110. The higher the stock rise, the faster your delta increases until it eventually reaches 100%. You now have a loss that increases exponentially!
This is why many hedge fund managers refer to naked option shorting as the “picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller” strategy.
For this reason, brokers either demand extremely high margin requirements for these “naked”, or unhedged short positions, or they won’t let you do them at all.
If you dig down behind many of the extravagant performance claims of other options trading services, they are almost always reliant on the naked shorting of options. They all blow up. It is just a matter of when.
For that reason, we here at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader NEVER recommend the naked shorting of put or call options, no matter what the circumstances.
We want to keep you as a happy, money-making customer for the long term. If you succumb to temptation and engage in naked shorting of options, you will be separated from your money in fairly short order.
(AAPL) June 17, 2016 $110 strike call option
(AAPL) shares rise from $110 to $200
$2.00 short sale proceeds + $90 - $88.00
a loss of 4,400%!!
Theta
All options have time value. This is why an option with a one-year expiration date cost far more than one with a one-week expiration date. The theta is the measurement of how much premium you lose in a day. This is what options traders like me refer to as time decay.
The theta on an option changes every day. For example, an option with a year until expiration is miniscule. An option that has a day until expiration is close to 100%, since it will lose its entire value within 24 hours, if it is out of the money. The closer we get to expiration; the faster theta accelerates. As mathematicians say, it is not a straight-line move.
This is why you never want to hold a long option position going into expiration. The value of this option will vaporize by the day. Unless the stock goes your way very quickly, you will have a really tough time making money.
If you are short an option, this is when you can earn your greatest profits. But you only want to consider a short option position when you have an offsetting hedge against it. That will minimize and define your risk and keep you from blowing up and going to the poor house. We’ll talk more about that later.
I could go into how you calculate your own thetas, but that would be boring. Suffice it to say that you can read it right off the screen of your online trading platform.
Implied Volatility
While we’re here meeting the Greeks, there is one more concept that I want to get across to make your life as an options trader easier.
You have probably heard of the term implied volatility. But to understand what this is, let me give you a little background.
Back in the 1970s, a couple of mathematicians developed a model for pricing options. Their names were Fisher Black and Myron Scholes and they received the Nobel Prize for their work. Their equation became known as the Black Scholes formula.
The Black Scholes equation predicts how much an option should be worth based on the historic volatility of the underlying securities, the current level of interest rates, and a few other factors.
When options trade over their Black Scholes value, they are said to have a high implied volatility. When they trade at a discount, they have a low implied volatility.
Let’s say that a piece of news comes out that a company is going to be taken over. The shares will rocket, and so will the implied volatility of the options.
If you pay a very high implied volatility for a Call option, the chances of you making money decline, and you are taking on more risk. If you pay too much, you could even see a situation where the stock rises, but the call option doesn’t rise, or even falls.
On the other hand, let's say you buy a call option that is trading at a big discount to its theoretical implied volatility. You usually find this when a stock has shown little movement over a long period of time.
Chances are that you will get a good return on this low-risk position, especially if you pick it up just before a major news event that you have correctly predicted.
At the end of the day, you should attempt to do with implied volatilities what you do with stocks and their options, buy low and sell high.
Fisher Black and Myron Scholes
The minors
There are a few other Greek letters you may hear about in the options market or find on your screen. For the most part, these are unnecessary, most basic options strategies, gamma is well above your pay grade.
Gamma is the name of the most powerful type of radiation emitted when an atomic bomb goes off. But we won’t talk about that here.
In the options world, gamma is the amount that the delta changes generated by a $1 move in the underlying stock price.
You may hear news reports of funds gamma hedging their portfolio during times of extreme market volatility. This occurs when managers want to reduce the volatility of their portfolios relative to the market.
Vega is another Greek term you’ll find on your screen. All options have a measurement called implied volatility or “vol” which indicates how much the option should move relative to a move in the underlying stock.
Vega is the measurement of the change in that option volatility. When a stock has a volatility that is changing rapidly, vega will be high. When a stock is boring, vega will be low.
Finally, for the sake of completeness, I’ll mention rho. Rho is the amount that the price of an option will change compared to a change in the risk-free interest rate, i.e. the interest rate of US Treasury bills.
Back in the 1980s, rho was a big deal because interest rates were very high. Since they have been close to zero for the past eight years, rho has been pretty much useless. The only reason you would want to mention rho today is if you were writing a book about options.
With that, you should be fairly fluent in the Greeks, at least in regards to trading options. Just don’t expect this to get you anywhere if you ever plan to take a vacation to Greece.
“We live in a world that is not described by classical economics,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.
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