Global Market Comments
July 13, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JULY 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TSLA), (NVDA), (MSFT), (BRKB), (TLT)
Global Market Comments
July 13, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JULY 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TSLA), (NVDA), (MSFT), (BRKB), (TLT)
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, October 15, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These involve the:
(MSFT) 7/$200-$210 call spread 10.00%
(NVDA) 7/$120-$130 call spread 10.00%
(TSLA) 7/$500-$550 call spread 10.00%
(BRKB) 7/$220-$230 call spread 10.00%
(TLT) 7/$119-$122 put spread 10.00%
Provided that we don’t have another 2,000-point move down in the market this week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.
So far, so good.
I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the Tesla (TSLA) July 2022 $500-$550 vertical bull call spread, which I almost certainly will run into expiration. Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $50.00 expiration value - $42.00 cost = $8.00 net profit
(2 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $8.00 profit per option)
= $1,600 or 19.05% in 21 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, July 18 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday July 15. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
You Can’t Do Enough Research
Global Market Comments
July 12, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING FOR 2022)
I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might generate 100-200 trades, and often come in frenzied bursts.
Since I am one of the greatest tightwads that ever walked the planet, I only like to buy positions when we are at the height of despair and despondency, and traders are raining off the Golden Gate Bridge like a heavy winter downpour.
Similarly, I only like to sell when the markets are tripping on steroids and ecstasy and are convinced that they can live forever.
Some 99% of the time, the markets are in the middle, and there is nothing to do but deep research and looking for the next trade. That is the purpose of this letter.
Over the five decades that I have been trading, I have learned a number of tried and true rules which have saved my bacon countless times. I will share them with you today.
1) Don’t over-trade. This is the number one reason why individual investors lose money. Look at your trades of the past year and apply the 90/10 rule. Dump the least profitable 90% and watch your performance skyrocket. Then aim for that 10%. Over-trading is a great early retirement plan for your broker, not you.
2) Always use stops. Risk control is the measure of a good hedge fund trader. If you lose all your capital on the lemons, you can’t play when the great trades set up. Consider cash as having an option value.
3) Don’t forget to sell. Date, don’t marry your positions. Remember, hogs get fed and pigs get slaughtered. My late mentor, Barton Biggs, told me to always leave the last 10% of a move for the next guy.
4) You don’t have to be a genius to play this game. If that was required, Wall Street would have run out of players a long time ago.
If you employ risk control and stops, then you can be wrong 40% of the time, and still make a living. That’s a little better than a coin toss. If you are wrong only 30% of the time, you can make millions.
If you are wrong a scant 20% of the time, you are heading a trading desk at Goldman Sachs. If you are wrong a scant 10% of the time, you are running a $20 billion hedge fund that the public only hears about when you pay $100 million for a pickled shark at a modern art auction.
If someone says they are never wrong, as is often claimed on the Internet, run a mile, because it is impossible. By the way, I was wrong 12% of the time in 2019. That’s what you’re paying me for.
5) This is hard work. Trading attracts a lot of wide-eyed, naïve, but lazy people because it appears so easy from the outside. You buy a stock, watch it go up, and make money. How hard is that?
The reality is that successful investing requires twice as much work as a normal job. The more research you put into a trade, the more comfortable you will become, and the more profitable it will be. That’s what this letter is for.
6) Don’t chase the market. If you do, it will turn back and bite you. Wait for it to come to you. If your miss the train, there will be another one along in minutes, hours, days, weeks, or months. Patience is a virtue.
7) Limit Your Losses. When I put on a position, I calculate how much I am willing to lose to keep it. I then put a stop just below there. If I get triggered, I just walk away. Emotion never enters the equation.
Only enter a trade when the risk/ reward is in your favor. You can start at 3:1 which means only risk a dollar to potentially make three.
8) Don’t confuse a bull market with brilliance. I am not smart, just old as dirt and have seen everything ten times over. I only have to decide which movie they’re replaying.
9) Tape this quote from the great economist and early hedge fund trader of the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes, to your computer monitor: "Markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent." Hang around long enough, and you will see this proven time and again (ten-year US Treasuries at 1.45%?!).
10) Don’t believe the media. I know, I used to be one of them. Look for the hard data, the numbers, and you’ll see that often the talking heads, the paid industry apologists, and politicians don’t know what they are talking about (the Gulf oil spill will create a dead zone for decades?).
Average out all the public commentary, and half are bullish and half bearish at any given time. The problem is that they never tell you which one is right (that is my job). When they all go one way, the markets usually go the opposite direction.
11) When you are running a long/short portfolio, 80% of your time is spent managing the shorts. If you don’t want to do the work, then cash beats a short any day of the week.
12) Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.
13) Invest like a fundamentalist, execute like a technical analyst. This is what all the pros do.
14) Use technical analysis only, and you will buy every rally, sell every dip, and end up broke. That said, learn what an “outside reversal” is, and who the hell is that Italian guy, Leonardo Fibonacci.
15) The simpler a market approach, the better it works. Everyone talks about “buy low and sell high”, but few actually do it. All black boxes eventually blow up, if they were ever there in the first place.
16) Markets are made up of people. Understand and anticipate how they think, and you will know what the markets are going to do.
17) Understand what information is in the market and what isn’t and you will make more money.
18) Do the hard trade, the one that everyone tells you that you are “Mad” to do. If you add a position and then throw up on your shoes afterward, then you know you’ve done the right thing. This is why people started calling me “Mad” 40 years ago. (What? Tech stocks were a huge buy the first week of January?).
19) If you are trying to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is quit digging and throw away the shovel. Sell everything. A blank position sheet can be invigorating and illuminating.
20) Making money in the market is an unnatural act, and fights against the tide of evolution.
We, humans, are predators and hunters who evolved to track the game on the horizon of an African savanna. If you don’t believe me,b v just check out how sharp your front incisor teeth are. They’re for tearing raw meat. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years.
Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue to do so.
This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts.
Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training. I am in the latter group.
With all that said, good luck and good trading. Fresh content resumes next week when I am back from Australia.
Great Hunter, Lousy Trader
Great Trader
Global Market Comments
July 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)
Global Market Comments
July 8, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS, OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY)
(MSFT)
Global Market Comments
July 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)
Global Market Comments
July 6, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE GREEKS)
Global Market Comments
July 5, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LEARNING THE ART OF RISK CONTROL)
Now that you know how to make money in the options market, I’m going to teach you how to hang on to it. There is no point in booking winning trades only to lose the money by making careless mistakes. So today, I am going to talk about risk control.
The first goal of risk control is to conserve whatever capital you have. I tell people that I am too old to start over again as a junior trader if I lose all my money. So, I’m pretty careful when it comes to risk control.
The art of risk control is to make sure your portfolio is profitable, no matter what happens to the market. You want to be a winner, whether the market goes up, down, or sideways.
Remember, we are not trying to beat an index here. Our goal is the make actual dollars at all times, and to keep the P&L chart always moving from the lower left to the upper right. You can’t eat relative performance, nor can you use it to pay your bills.
The second goal of a portfolio manager is to make your portfolio bombproof. You never know when a flock of black swans is about to alight on the market, or a geopolitical shock comes out of the blue causing markets to crash.
The biggest mistake I see beginning traders make is that they are in too much of a hurry to get rich. As a result, they lose too much money too soon. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard of first-time traders losing all their money on their first trade, well before they got a handle on the basics.
I’m usually right 80% to 90% of the time. That means I’m wrong 10% to 20% of the time. If you bet the ranch on one of my losing trades, you’ll get taken to the cleaners. Never bet the ranch.
If you do, you are turning calculated risk into random risk. It is akin to buying a lottery ticket. I often tell clients they have gambling addictions. Make sure you’re not one of them. You can’ trade yourself back from zero with no money.
If you can master the skills which I am teaching you, you can make a living at this FOREVER! So, what’s the hurry? As my old trading mentor used to tell me, the Late Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley, “invest in haste, repent in leisure,” a time-tested nostrum in this business.
I recommend that you use NO real money on your first few trades. Start with paper trading only. All of the online trading platforms offer wonderful tools that allow you to practice trading before you try the real thing. If you lose your “pretend money”, no harm, no foul. They don’t want you to go broke either. Broke customers don’t pay commissions.
The more time you spend learning trading, the more money you will get out of it. Remember, work in, money out. Spend at least an hour or two getting to know your own trading platform well.
Once you start trading with real money, it will become a totally different experience. Your heart rate steps up. Your hands get sweaty. You start checking your watch. It’s a lot like going into combat. In fact, combat veterans make great traders, which is why the military recruits so actively from the military. I think all these instincts trace back to our Neanderthal days when our main concern was being chased by a saber-tooth tiger.
The time to learn a trading discipline is NOW. All of a sudden, your opinions, your ego, and your savings are on the line. It’s crucial for you to always start small when using real money.
That way, making a beginner’s mistake, like confusing “BUY” and “SELL” (I see it every day) will only cost you a cup of coffee at Starbucks, and bet your kids' college education, your house, or your retirement. It won’t take long for you to grow from one contract to thousands, as I have done myself for many years.
It’s all about finding your comfort level and risk tolerance. You never want to have a position that is so large that you can’t sleep at night, or worse, call me in the middle of the night. My answer is always the same. Cut your position in half. If you still can’t sleep, cut it in half again.
I make a bold prediction here. The more experience you gain, the faster your risk tolerance goes up.
I’ll give you one more piece of advice. Take your broker's technical support phone number and paste it to the top of your computer monitor. You don’t want to go looking for it when you can’t figure out how to get out of a position, or your platform breaks. These are machines. It happens. As they teach in flight school, it’s not a matter of if, but when, a machine breaks.
There’s one more thing. When you’re ready to commit real money, don’t forget to take your account off of paper trading. The profits you make can’t be spent.
Risk management is an important part of the position sheet I will be sending you every day.
Take a look below at a position sheet I sent out during sharply rising markets, which I update every day.
The important thing to look at here is my long/short balance. On the left is the position name and on the right is the position weighting. I usually run 10% positions so I don’t have all my eggs in one basket. Maybe twice a year, I’ll run a 20% position in a single stock, and once a year I’ll have a 30% weighting. Above that, I start to lose sleep.
I have further subdivided the portfolio into “RISK ON” and “RISK OFF.” “RISK ON” means the world is getting better, while “RISK OFF” means the world is getting worse. The long positions have positive numbers, while the short positions have negative ones.
I like to balance “RISK ON” and “RISK OFF” to remove overall market risk from the portfolio. When markets are rising, I tilt positive. When markets are falling, I tilt negative. At the bottom, I have my total net exposure. On this particular day, I was running 60% in longs and 20% in shorts, for a total net position of 40% long. This is an aggressively bullish portfolio.
When I’m bullish, the net position is positive. When I’m bearish the net position is negative. When I have no strong views, the net position is zero. That way, if nothing happens you still get to rake the money in.
I have no positions at all only a few days a year. I only play when the risk/reward is overwhelmingly in my favor, and sometimes that is just not possible.
One more warning to the wise. There are literally hundreds of gurus out there, marketing services promising 100% a year, if not a 100% a month, or even 100% a day. They are all fake, created by 20-year-old marketing types who have never worked in the stock market, or even traded. Unfortunately, I work in an industry where almost everyone else is a crook.
I have worked in the markets for more than 50 years and have seen everything. Ray Dalio is the top-performing hedge fund manager in history and he only averages 35% a year. The number of real traders who are right more than 80% of the time you can almost count on one hand. If returns sound too good to be true, they never are.
I want to offer special caution about naked put-shorting strategies which are promoted by 90% of these letters. This is where a trader sells short a put position without any accompanying hedge, hence the word “naked.” This is an unlimited risk position.
You might take in a $1 of premium with this approach, but if the market turns against you, and implied volatilities go through the roof, your losses could balloon exponentially to $100 or more, wiping you out. The newsletters recommending these have absolutely no idea when or if this is going to happen.
I call this the “picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller strategy.” No professional trader worth his salt will put money into it. It is banned by most investing institutions. And only a few brokers will still let you do this, and then only with 100% margin requirements because when losses exceed 100% of capital, they’re left carrying the bag.
Many of those strategies you see being hawked online look great on paper but can’t actually be executed. In other words, you just paid thousands of dollars for a service that is utterly useless. Sounds like a “No Go” to me.
Stop losses are an important part of any trading strategy. No one is right 100% of the time. If they claim so, they are lying. The best way to avoid a big loss is to take a small one.
There are many possible places to use stop losses. I use 2% of my total capital. If I start to lose more than that, I am out of there. It’s easy for me to do this because 90% of the time, the next trade will be a winner and I’ll make back all the money I just lost.
Others use a 10% decline in the underlying stock as a good arbitrary point to limit losses. Others rely on Fibonacci levels (I’ll get to him later). Many traders rely on key moving averages, like the 50-Day or the 200-day.
The problem with this is that high-frequency traders have access to the same charting data as you do. They’ll program their algorithms to quickly take a stock through your stop loss level, buy your stock for cheap, and then take it right back up again to book a quick profit. You are left with a “SELL” confirmation in your inbox and no position in a rising market. No wonder people think Wall Street is rigged.
Another concept is the “trailing stop”. That’s when after an initial rise, you place a stop-loss order at your cost. That way you CAN’T lose money. This is known as “playing with the house's money.” This approach has one shortfall. You can’t place stop losses in the options market that are executed automatically. The same is true for options spreads.
In this case, you use what is known as a “pocket stop-loss” where you set your own mental level on when to get out. Also, these are not automatic, they do establish a trading discipline. Caution: You can’t execute a pocket stop loss when you’re playing golf or on a one-week cruise in the Caribbean.
So, there you have it. By managing your risk prudently, you can tip the risk/reward balance in your favor.
I hope this helps.
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