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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 2, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 2, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHAT’S REALLY BEHIND THE BRISTOL MYERS/CELGENE MERGER),
(BMY), (CELG),
(ON EXECUTING MY TRADE ALERTS),

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-04-02 09:08:032019-04-02 09:20:27April 2, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

What’s Really Behind the Bristol Myers/Celgene Merger?

Diary, Newsletter

The start of 2019 saw Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) reveal a plan that rattled a number of its investors: the 132-year-old biotech giant plans to buy Celgene (CELG) for $74 billion or approximately $102.43 per share.

While these kinds of moves happen often, Bristol’s decision has some of its major shareholders up in arms. So far, Bristol top holder Wellington with 8% of shares, Dodge & Cox with 2.61%, and Starboard Value with 0.06% have publicly expressed their opposition to the merger.

Aside from labeling this deal as “ill-advised,” Starboard suggested that Bristol should either consider selling itself or simply put an end to this plan.

Here’s a short background on the matter.

For Bristol, this deal seemed to have stemmed from the dwindling performance of its mega-blockbuster immuno-oncology drug Opdivo compared to its greatest competitor, Merck & Co’s (MRK) Keytruda.

Unfortunately for Bristol, Opdivo failed to obtain a monotherapy in first-line lung cancer result while Keytruda succeeded on this front. The whole process resulted in costly losses to Bristol and massive sales for Merck in the tune of $7.2 billion, outpacing Opdivo’s $6.7 billion in 2018 – a first for both drugs since the two had been neck to neck since their launches.

The threat of competing cancer drugs – generic and otherwise – against Opdivo didn’t help either. In effect, Bristol has been facing pressure from investors to recoup the costs either via expansion or a profitable merger. By comparison, Bristol’s annual revenue is at $22.6 billion while Merck is at $42.3 billion and fellow competitor Pfizer (PFE) is at $53.4 billion.

On the other side of the merger, Celgene (CELG) has been struggling with the looming loss of its patent protection for their major drug Revlimid, a multiple myeloma medication which accounts for 65% of the company’s $14.2 billion annual revenue. By 2022, generic alternatives are anticipated to eat away the shares of Revlimid. This puts roughly $10 billion in annual sales at risk for Celgene.

In comparison, Celgene’s competitors seem miles ahead based on their reported annual revenues alone, with Eli Lilly (LLY) at $24.6 billion and Novartis (NOVN) at $51 billion.

Celgene’s response to this impending “doom” is to come up with a promising stable of treatments and medications to offset their future losses. This is where Bristol comes in.

While it’s still up in the air if the merger would actually benefit Bristol massively, Celgene seems to be on a win-win situation here. With the money from Bristol, Celgene can relax a bit about the competitors chomping at the bit to decimate Revlimid’s status in the market. On top of that, they’ll be able to insulate themselves (and portfolios) from potential failures in their pipeline.

What about Bristol?

Well, you can look at the merger as Bristol paying for Celgene’s ideas. With a pipeline brimming at the seams, Bristol would be able to have choice picks on what could be their next blockbuster drug especially in light of the weakening performance of Opdivo in the market.

Not only that, another Bristol mega-blockbuster drug Eliquis, an atrial fibrillation medication, is expected to see a decline in sales starting 2022 due to its pending patent expiration.

So far, Bristol shares have experienced a drop by -25.29% or -$17.25, putting it at $50.97 per share in comparison with its previously recorded high of $68.22 last week. The past 52 weeks have also seen Bristol trade as low as $44.3. Meanwhile, its current earnings-per-share (EPS) is estimated to sit at around $1.04 per share.

These estimates make a number of investors bullish with regard to the near-term reports of Bristol a modest prediction of an 11.3% increase in its average price target. This is estimated to lead to a potential market cap rise to $93.04 billion.

How realistic is this promising future of overflowing pipeline for Bristol?

Details of the merger reveal that Celgene will get a contingent value right (CVR) worth a one-time $9-per-share bonus if the company’s three most promising treatments snag FDA approval on set dates: multiple sclerosis drug Ozanimod and Liso-cel by December 31, 2020, as well as bb2121 by March 31, 2021.

Is it achievable?

It looks like it since all three drugs already have available data and are set for late-stage trials necessary for regulatory approvals.

Is this a slam dunk deal then?

This depends greatly on how Celgene works out the kinks of their drugs. So far, Ozanimod was rejected by the FDA in 2018 due to doubts on the company’s capacity to execute the trials effectively. Will Bristol’s backing guarantee approval in the next round? Possibly, especially since the FDA’s rejection was reportedly due to a lack of potential funding by Celgene to support their trials.

Whether or not this deal pushes through heavily depends on the other major shareholders of Bristol. So far, the opposition raised by the three investors hasn’t really resulted in the company wavering on this plan.

However, April 12 is a long way to go when it comes to finalizing this takeover and both sides are still working on persuading their fellow shareholders to stand by their arguments.

What about Celgene? How does this takeover sound to their investors?

Celgene’s investors should be celebrating since this merger has a lot of promising upsides for them and quite frankly, offers a highly lucrative escape plan. Bristol’s buying price of $102.43 per stock is a 54% premium in comparison to the average price of per Celgene share. The CVR incentive offered by Bristol definitely adds the icing to the cake for Celgene investors as well.

Overall, the deal seems to be a reasonable move for both Celgene and Bristol. While the merger definitely has its fair share of risks, Bristol’s key takeaway here is the plethora of opportunities to grow their SKUs. Even with the threat of Celgene’s Revlimid losing patent protection in the years to come, this takeover still offers good strategic positioning shots and promising pipeline expansion for Bristol.

After all, both companies are not necessarily goldmines for investors and are poised to crash sometime soon given their recent performance trends. Perhaps joining forces would give them a fighting chance to ward off more hostile takeovers or worse, a bankruptcy.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-04-02 09:07:552019-04-02 09:20:38What’s Really Behind the Bristol Myers/Celgene Merger?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 1, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE INMATES ARE RUNNING THE ASYLUM)
(SPY), (TLT), (FCX), (DIS), (TSLA), (IWM), (AAPL),
 (GOOGL), (MSFT), (PYPL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-04-01 08:07:292019-04-01 08:12:16April 1, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Inmates are Running the Asylum

Diary, Newsletter

I have decided to run for president next year. If you wondered why my content has been slacking off lately, it’s because I’ve been hard at work writing the Mueller Report. Oh, and the Dow Average will reach 100,000 by December.

Ha! Gotcha! April fool.

Still, looking at the market action last week, you really have to wonder if the inmates have seized control of the asylum when the average rose four of five days. These are people who are buying stocks at a decade high, with collapsing earnings, and the rest of the world falling into recession.

However, there is a method to their madness. Interest rates across every maturity in Europe and Japan turned negative last week. Suddenly both US stocks AND bonds looked like the bargain of the century, but only if you were foreign. An avalanche of cash into the US followed triggering an explosive move up in the bond market. For the first time in three years, I was not short.

And here’s the interesting part. It could continue for months.

In the meantime, investors have been grappling with a number that will be the most important print of the year. The first look at Q1 2019 GDP will be published on April 23, and it is widely expected to be awful, at less than a 1% annual rate. It will include the effects of the record 34-day government shutdown as well as the horrendous weather and flooding of last winter.

So, on the one hand, you have a stock market that is simultaneously being propped up by enormous cash flows and held back by a weakening economy and earnings and profit-taking from the best quarterly start in ten years. It all adds up to a market that could go absolutely nowhere.

And I just so happen to have the perfect portfolio for such a market. These are the precise conditions where deep in-the-money call and put option spreads absolutely prosper. When everything is going nowhere, spreads always expire at their maximum profit points.

The global easing trend is accelerating as central banks rush to head off the next global recession. Expect interest rates to drop to levels you once thought impossible.

The global bond short covering panic continues, with ten-year US Treasury yields dropping to an eye-popping 2.33%. Slowing global growth is to blame. Did I hear the word “refi”?

Foreign investors poured into the US bond market, driving ten-year US Treasury yields down to 2.33%. When everyone else in the world has negative yields, our bonds become the best paying in the world.

Q4 GDP final report came in at 2.2% as expected, down a third from Q3. Expect that figure to more than halve in Q1 2019. Put on your hard hat.

The Mueller Report gave Trump a clean bill of health, at least on the collusion issue. But it opened up a dozen other lines of investigation that will continue for years. It’s definitely a “RISK ON” development.

US Existing Home sales jumped 11.8% in January. Low mortgage interest rates are finally kicking in with the 30-year fixed at 4.23%. This is a one hit wonder, not the beginning of a new trend. But interest rates are going lower.

New Home Sales were up 4.9% to 667,000 units in February in a rare positive data point. Could low interest rates finally be kicking in? Still, avoid homebuilders.

Apple (AAPL) announced its new streaming service, Apple TV Plus, and the stock fell on a “sell the news” drop. Roku is included in the package so buy (ROKU). The Apple offering is weak enough to allow plenty of room for Disney to launch its own streaming service Disney Plus at the end of this year. Prepare for an onslaught of princesses. Buy (DIS) too.

Home price appreciation hit a four-year low with the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index growing only 4.2% YOY in January, down from 4.6% the previous month. Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Minneapolis are still showing the biggest gains while San Francisco and Seattle are seeing the biggest price drops. Avoid homebuilders (ITB).

Lyft (LYFT) priced at $72 a share, the top end of expectations, valuing the company at an eye popping $25 billion at the end of the day. Never mind that the company is losing money hand over fist, it’s all about potential. The tech IPO bubble top has started!
 

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader was up on the week with time decay in our combed 13 positions our best friend. The quarter end window dressing was kind to us.

March turned positive in a final burst, up 1.78%.  My 2019 year to date return retreated to +15.49%,  boosting my trailing one-year return back up to +35.16%. 
 
My nine-year return recovered to +315.56%, a new all-time high. The average annualized return appreciated to +33.81%. I am now 45% in cash, 30% long and 25% short, and my entire portfolio expires at the April 18 option expiration day in 9 trading days. I took generous profits on my positions in copper miner Freeport McMoRan (FCX) right when it bounced off the 200-day moving average.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter maintained long positions in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and PayPal (PYPL), and Amazon (AMZN), which are clearly going to new highs.

It’s jobs week again with the usual trifecta of employment reports. Last month was a disaster, so this month will be interesting.

On Monday, April 1 at 8:30 AM, February Retail Sales are published.

On Tuesday, April 2, 8:30 AM EST, we learn February Durable Goods.

On Wednesday, April 3 at 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report comes out for private hiring.

On Thursday, April 4 at 8:30 AM EST, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced.

On Friday, April 5 at 8:30 AM, we obtain the big number of the week, the February Nonfarm Payroll Report.

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I’m going to use a rare spell of good weather to drive up to Lake Tahoe and start the planning work on my October 25-26 Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference. Half the dinner tickets sold out on the first day, so you better get moving now.

Maybe it’s something I said? To learn more about the conference, please click here. I’ll see you there.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-04-01 08:06:362019-04-01 08:12:28The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Inmates are Running the Asylum
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 29, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 29, 2019
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL FANG ISSUE

Featured Trade:

(FINDING A NEW FANG),
(FB), (AAPL), (NFLX), (GOOGL),
(TSLA), (BABA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-29 09:07:252019-03-29 10:51:56March 29, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 28, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA, CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 25-26, 2019)
(THE REBIRTH OF THE MASTER LIMITED PARTNERSHIP),
(USO), (AMLP), (FPL), (MLPS), (MLPX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-28 03:09:142019-03-28 03:11:55March 28, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 27, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(JUMP ON THE VERTEX BANDWAGON),
(VRTX), (CRSP),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CELEBRATES ITS 11-YEAR ANNIVERSARY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-27 01:08:342019-03-26 18:15:41March 27, 2019
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Jump on the Vertex Bandwagon

Diary, Newsletter

The biotech industry has at least 500 stocks listed on the market today. These companies range from huge biotech firms with several blockbuster drugs to humble money-losing startups still on the lookout for their first big break.

Among these companies, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) presents a compelling case that could attract investors.

Recent developments on Vertex's triple-combination treatment for cystic fibrosis (CF) have been predicted to spur the company's revenues this year in a major way. If the results of the studies turn out successful, then Vertex is on the verge of becoming the sole treatment provider to at least 90% of the people suffering from this severe genetic condition. That’s a nice monopoly to have.

While the recent developments have yet to aggressively show its effect in Vertex stock, the company has already recorded an impressive 160% growth since 2017 and this is anticipated to go higher in the years to come.

At present, the annual revenue of Vertex is recorded as $3 billion, while major competitors like Pfizer has $53.4 billion, Bristol-Myers Squibb has $22.6 billion, and Novartis has $51 billion. In order words, there is plenty of room to grow.

Just how far can Vertex shares go?

Let's take a look at previous reports on the company. Its December 2018 financial report reveals that its earnings per share jumped by 113% year-over-year to $1.3. Its quarterly revenues increased by 40% and reached $869.44 million -- a gigantic 39.7% leap from the $622.63 million it achieved during the same period in the previous year.

While the March 2019 EPS for this company is anticipated to go down to $0.68 compared to the $0.76 recorded the same period last year, its 2020 EPS is projected to get a 49.46% boost. With that estimate, Vertex is expected to reach its long-term annual earnings growth rate of 53.86%.

How can investors be sure that Vertex continues with its remarkable progress?

The company's moves in the past months have been quite promising. A major factor that could guarantee its success is its dominance in the CF market. At the moment, Vertex has three approved CF drugs available in the market: Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko.

Of these three, two are already considered as blockbuster products while Symdeko is poised to hit the $1 billion yearly sales mark this year.

Another promising reason to invest in Vertex is its move to expand the addressable CF market it currently covers. If the company succeeds in cornering the market for treating younger patients, then its target population will increase from 39,000 to 44,000.

Vertex is also working towards gaining approval for a triple-drug combo this year. The biotech company projects an additional 24,000 patients globally to benefit from this triple-drug regimen.

Should all these plans fall into place, Vertex would see a 75% expansion on its addressable CF market in the years to come.

Although CF has been the focus of Vertex in the previous years, the company also intends to widen its scope and plans to conduct early-stage clinical studies for at least two new diseases this year.

This move would prove to be beneficial in the long-term considering the decision of AbbVie Inc (ABBV) to join the triple-drug CF race. So far, AbbVie has a long way to go before it can catch up with Vertex's progress in this arena especially since the latter practically has a monopoly as it alone offers the drugs that can treat the underlying causes of CF.

Vertex's collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) on gene-editing treatments, which aim to treat rare blood disorders beta-thalassemia and sickle cell disease, is yet another promising development for the company.

All in all, Vertex is a good biotech stock to invest in today. However, its plans are not foolproof.

There remains the risk that its pipeline candidates fail at clinical trials or that the company loses its bids for regulatory approvals. Nonetheless, it's a promising stock to add to your portfolio especially since the company has more than doubled its stock in the past two years.

High risk, high gain. Welcome to the world of biotech stocks.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/kalydeco.png 358 604 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-27 01:07:082019-07-09 03:59:35Jump on the Vertex Bandwagon
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Eleventh Year Anniversary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Diary, Newsletter

The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is now celebrating its 11th year of publication.

During this time, I have religiously pumped out 1,500 words a day, or eight double-spaced typed pages, of original, independent-minded, hard-hitting, and often wickedly funny research.

I’ve been covering stocks, bonds, commodities, energy, precious metals, real estate, and agricultural products.

You’ve been kept up on my travels around the world and listened in on my conversations with those who drive the financial markets.

I also occasionally opine on politics, but only when it has a direct market impact, such as with the recent administration's economic and trade policies.

The site now contains over 11 million words or 13 times the length of Tolstoy’s epic War and Peace.

Unfortunately, it feels like I have written on every possible topic at least 100 times over.

So, I am reaching out to you, the reader, to suggest new areas of research that I may have missed until now which you believe justify further investigation.

Please send any and all ideas directly to me at support@madhedgefundtrader.com/, and put “RESEARCH IDEA” in the subject line.

The great thing about running an online business is that I can evolve it to meet your needs on a daily basis.

Many of the new products and services that I have introduced since 2008 have come at your suggestion. That has enabled me to improve the product’s quality to your benefit.

This originally started out as a daily email to my hedge fund investors giving them an update on fast market-moving events. That was at a time when the financial markets were in free fall and the end of the world seemed near.

Here’s a good trading rule of thumb: Usually, the world doesn’t end. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes.

The daily emails gave me the scalability that I so desperately needed. Today’s global mega enterprise grew from there. Today, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader and its Global Trading Dispatch is read in over 140 countries by 24,000 followers.

I’m weak in North Korea and Mali, in both cases due to the lack of electricity. But that may change.

If you want to read my first pitiful attempt at a post, please click here for my February 1, 2008 post.   

It urged readers to buy gold at $950 (it soared to $1,920), and buy the Euro at $1.50 (it went to $1.60).

Now you know why this letter has become so outrageously popular.

Unfortunately, I also recommended that they sell bonds short. I wasn’t wrong on that one, just early, about eight years too early.

I always get asked how long will I keep doing this?

The government tells me that the latest I can start drawing down on my retirement funds and Social Security is 70. That’s some three years off for me.

Given the absolute blast I have doing this job, that is highly unlikely. Take a look at the testimonials I get only an almost daily basis and you’ll see why this business is so hard to walk away from (click here for those).  

In the end, you are going to have to pry my cold dead fingers off of this keyboard to get me to give up.

Fiat Lux (let there be light).

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/john-suit-e1507749585324.jpg 201 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-27 01:06:102019-07-09 03:59:50Eleventh Year Anniversary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 26, 2019

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY I’M SELLING SHORT TESLA SHARES),
(TSLA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-26 10:07:062019-03-26 10:18:12March 26, 2019
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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