I like being up 22% on the year, and I want to stay up 22%, or more.
I am pulling this off in the worst trading year in hedge fund history, beating funds that have hundreds of in-house analysts.
So I am therefore going to stick to my strict stop loss discipline and bail out here on my position in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) November, 2016 $203-$208 in-the-money vertical bull call spread for a small loss.
This trade will almost certainly be a winner, as there are only 12 trading days left until expiration.
I seriously doubt the (SPY) is going to trade below the 200-day moving average at 206.49 at the November 18th expiration, just below the breakeven point for this position.
The pinprick inflicted by this trade is more than amply offset by the large gains I took in with my hedges in short positions in the S&P 500 (SPY), the Russell 2000 (IWM), oil (USO), US Treasury bonds (TLT) and my long in gold (GLD).
This puts me in the enviable position of going into the November 8th presidential election entirely in cash. That has been my goal for all of 2016.
And I go into this cash position coming off an absolute tear in trading performance, making an eye popping 8.13% in October, enduring a flat September, and taking in a whopping 7.52% in August.
Those lucky folks who bought my service in July must think I?m some kind of genius.
I?m not. I just work very hard and love what I do.
Cash has an option value, and by maximizing my cash here I am creating the maximum amount of dry powder going into an extreme risk event, one of the biggest in a decade.
I think Hillary Clinton has the Electoral College locked up. It is mathematically impossible for Trump to win.
Of the 13 battle ground states, Clinton is winning 10 by large margins and breaking even in three. It is an insurmountable lead.
And Clinton has 50,000 ground troops to get out the vote, which Trump lacks.
Absentee voting in Hispanic neighborhoods across the country is coming in at levels 100% higher than in the last election.
Donald Trump finally pulled off what Democrats were never able to do on their own: get Hispanics to vote in large numbers for Democrats.
If you want the 50,000-foot view, this is all part of a century long transition of the United States from a predominately white to a multiethnic society where no single group has a majority.
That happened in San Francisco 20 years ago, in California ten years ago, and will take place nationally by 2040.
Our politics are changing as a result. Expect the road to be bumpy.
Even the betting polls are showing 70-30 odds in Clinton?s favor.
I have another poll to refer to that is even more valuable.
Of the 6,000 followers in all 50 US states and 135 countries who read the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader on a daily basis, I know of only two who are voting for Donald Trump.
After all, this is an educated, pragmatic, and opportunistic group who are primarily interested in making money.
Of the two who are going to vote for Clinton, one is a hard core conservative in Arkansas who is still fighting the Civil War (yes, that?d be you, Rufus!).
The other, in Oklahoma, believes in every Internet conspiracy theory that comes along, no matter how frequently they are proven wrong.
But I would rather read about the election outcome in the newspapers than in my portfolio. This is how you get to stay in the game for 50 years, as I have.
The last time I went 100% into cash was before the Brexit vote, and that worked out pretty well.
The goal here is not to be right, feel good, or seize the moral high ground. It is all about earning absolute positive returns at all times.
THIS IS HOW YOU DO IT!
Having said all that, and being out of the market, I?m now heading off to the Incline Village, Nevada Public Library to vote early. Nevada is a battleground state, and every vote will count, even mine.
Occasionally I hear from subscribers to the flagship publication of Mad Hedge Fund Trader, Global Trading Dispatch, that they can?t execute one of my market beating Trade Alerts because broker commissions will eat up a large chunk of their potential profits.
This is especially true with low dollar priced stocks, like Bank of America (BAC), involving large numbers of contracts.
When I ask how much they are paying in commissions, I am absolutely flabbergasted. Investors are being raped left, right, and center by excessive commissions, ticket charges, custodial expenses and exchange fees.
Brokerage management philosophy seems to be, ?if it moves or breathes, charge it.? Small individual investors are particularly abused.
You want to be paying for your own yacht, not your broker?s.
So, I decided to go shopping for a new online broker, assuming that I would be executing a typical volume of orders one might execute following the sometimes frenetic Trade Alerts of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. That works out to about 20 trades a month in options, stocks, and ETFs at about 40 contracts per trade.
After speaking to a dozen different companies, I gained a pretty good read on the current state of the business.
This is a fantastically competitive industry. Firms are fighting tooth and nail to gain customer trade flows which they then sell to high frequency traders, where the real money is made.
If you are strictly passive and simply open an account on your own, the initial commissions will be very high. But lift up the phone, and suddenly everything is negotiable, and the world is your oyster.
Some will offer you 60 days of commission free trading to wrest your account away from the competition. Others will pay cash bonuses up to $2,000, depending on the size of your trading capital.
Services will vary all over the map, from bare bones discount services, to full service houses with massive research and analytical resources. Some companies charge premiums for speaking to live humans, while others don?t.
It is very important that their technical support be easily accessible to sort out the inevitable glitches and mistakes. Before taking any action, visit a potential broker?s website for a test-drive and see if it meets your needs.
Caution: none of these guys have any idea whatsoever what the market is going to do. That is my job.
Before sending that wire transfer, make sure that your new broker is FDIC insured for $250,000. Several houses went bust during the crash, and that government guarantee was worth its weight in gold.
If you have the financial sophistication, you might also ask for the broker?s financial statement. Small private firms won?t have these as they are privately owned.
When times get tough, keeping all your money in a financial institution that is ?too big to fail? is a good idea.
Here?s another warning: the people who work in this business are fantastically aggressive. Don?t give them your home phone number or they will pester you to death until you send them money. It?s almost as bad as talking to solar panel installers.
Remember also that opening a brokerage account these days requires gargantuan amounts of paperwork, thanks to vastly expanded regulation.
I?m sure they cause entire forests to needlessly fall under the axe. It is also one of the last industries, along with real estate, to still use the dinosaurian fax machine.
A further headache: many documents have to be notarized to make sure you are not a terrorist or a drug dealer laundering money.
I would also keep open a minimum of two accounts at different brokers at any one time. The lesson of MF Global is that you never want all your eggs in one basket. Everyone eventually got all their money back, but it took three years of litigation to get the last couple of bucks.
Once your account is open and has established a trade history, call your broker again. If your size or frequency of trading has increased, so has your negotiating leverage, and they will agree to better deals and bigger discounts.
Remember, it is the squeaky wheel that gets the grease.
I spoke to a dozen brokers and here is what I found. Commissions are expressed in terms of a ticket charge per options trade and a fixed commission per contract. A few cents in exchange fees get tacked on to every trade.
Interactive Brokers
Has been rated the number one firm for the last three years by the Barron?s annual survey of online brokers. They also have a large international following among my many readers abroad (we have customers in 135 countries).
They offered me a very competitive 50-cent a share commission, and ticket charges depending on whether I am adding to, or subtracting from, liquidity in the market. To learn more, go to their website: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/ind/en/main.php
OptionsHouse (formerly TradeMonster)
Founded by my friends, Jon and Pete Najarian, TradeMonster is a full service house with extensive analytical and educational resources. You can even find the Mad Hedge Fund Trader in there sometimes. They offered me a flat commission rate of 60 cents a share, no ticket charge, and a $600 cash back signing bonus.
TradeMonster merged with Options House, and the two firms have integrated customer lists, market data management, and services. https://www.optionshouse.com/
Place Trade
A deep discount broker located in Raleigh, North Carolina would charge me a 75-cent commission and a $1.00 ticket charge, but these were soft numbers. I?m sure one more phone call would have dropped them by half. http://www.us.placetrade.com/
TD Ameritrade
Their website offered a 60 cent commission, $600 in cash back and 60 days of free commissions. But when I called to learn more, I was left on hold for 20 minutes, so I gave up. https://www.tdameritrade.com/home.page
TradeStation
This ubiquitous marketer offered me a $4.99 ticket charge and a 20 cent commission if I did more than 200 trades a month. Drop below this and it jumps up quite a lot. http://www.tradestation.com/
OptionsXpress
This Charles Schwab subsidiary could do an $8.95 ticket charge and a 75-cent commission. It has recently invested a lot in mobile (smart phone) executive, one of the fastest growing parts of the market.
About a third of my readers now access my research through their phones, although how they read those tiny letters is beyond me. http://www.optionsxpress.com/
TradeKing
Is giving customers a $4.95 ticket charge and a 65-cent commission. They have been growing through acquisition in recent years, picking up a number of other small online brokers. https://www.tradeking.com/
Fidelity
Its website offers a $7.95 ticket charge and a mere 10 cent commission along with its Trade Armor service. Unfortunately, I couldn?t find out what this is because I was left on hold for 20 minutes. As you can probably tell by now, my patience with poor customer service is pretty low, so I hung up. https://www.fidelity.com/
E*TRADE
This firm earned a perpetual place in the minds of San Francisco based traders when a disgruntled customer shot out one of their massive windows at their Market Street branch at the height of the financial crisis.
This firm seemed one of the most eager to get my business. They have a steep starter $9.95 ticket charge and a 75-cent commission. But that declines dramatically if I trade more than 150 times a month. They also offered me a generous $1,200 cash bonus to switch my account, and 60 days of commission free trading. Tony, I?ll get back to you! https://us.etrade.com/home
Merrill Edge
This old line wire house came close to going under during the crash, and was bought at the last minute by Bank of America (BAC) for a pittance, after no small amount of government pressure.
With a $6.95 ticket charge and a 75-cent commission, they are no bargain. But if you like a lot of hand holding, and want someone to take you out to play golf on your birthday, this is your place. And if you maintain cash balances of over $25,000 at (BAC) you get 100 free trades and a cash back bonus of $1,200. It?s all in the family. https://www.merrilledge.com/
Scottrade
Another prolific advertiser, they came in at a $7 ticket charge and a $1.25 per contract commission. They will offer cash bonuses to move an account from $100 up to $2,000 for amounts over $1 million. They will also toss in another $100 to cover transfer fees.
Although they are an online broker, they boast a 500 branch national network that comes in handy when handling the extensive paperwork for a new account. https://www.scottrade.com/
Charles Schwab
My first impression after looking at the Charles Schwab website was ?Charles, you?re getting really old!? Schwab has graced the box next to mine at the San Francisco Opera for the last 20 years.
It?s interesting to see how this firm has evolved over the last four decades. When it first arrived on the scene, it was a disruptive, iconoclastic discount broker that thumbed its nose at Wall Street.
Today, it is dripping with establishment pretention, and has moved up market, getting more expensive. Its main presence in the options market comes from its purchase of optionsXpress described above. https://www.schwab.com/
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Female-Office-Worker.jpg277366Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-03 01:06:472016-11-03 01:06:47Shopping for a New Broker
I have been covering Silicon Valley since it was a verdant, sun-kissed peach orchard in Northern California.
I have to say that in the half century that I have followed the technology industry, I have never seen the principals, gurus, and visionaries so excited about a major new trend.
That would be artificial intelligence or AI.
Asking if AI is relevant now is like pondering the future of Thomas Edison?s new electricity in 1890.
If you think that AI still belongs in the realm of science fiction, you obviously didn?t get the memo. It is all around us all the time, 24/7. You just don?t know it yet.
And here?s the rub.
It is impossible to invest purely in AI.
All new AI startups comprise small teams of experts from labs and universities financed by big venture capital firms like Sequoia Capital, Kleiner Perkins, and Andreeson Horowitz.
After developing software for a year or two, they are sold on to major technology firms at huge premiums. They never see the light of day in the form of a public listing.
Alphabet (GOOG) acquired Britain based, Deep Mind, in 2014. Later that year, Google?s AlphaGo program defeated the world?s top-ranked Go player.
Last year, Microsoft (MSFT) purchased Equivio, a small firm that applies AI to advanced document searches on the Internet.
Amazon (AMZN) recently bought out Orbeus, a startup known for machine learning tools for image recognition.
Amazon?s Jeff Bezos now says that his Amazon Fresh home food delivery service is using AI to grade strawberries.
Really!
We?re not talking small potatoes here.
The global artificial intelligence market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 44.3% a year to $23.5 billion by 2025.
Nearly half of all applications now use some form of AI that by 2020 will earn businesses an extra $60 billion a year in profits.
And from what I have learned from speaking to the major players over the last few weeks, I am convinced that these numbers are low by an order of magnitude.
I have been following developments in artificial intelligence since the 1960s.
There were those feeble computer dating attempts in the early seventies where we all had to prepare IBM punch cards.
I was matched with an annoyingly aggressive real estate agent. (Really?). Her only real qualification was that she was female.
It took decades and tens of thousands of programming man hours before IBM?s Deep Blue could become a chess grandmaster in 1996, defeating Gary Kasparov.
Big Blue?s latest effort came to us with Watson in 2007, an 85,000-watt behemoth, with 90 servers and 15 terabytes of data, or three quarters of the content of the entire Library of Congress.
The machine can read a staggering 1 million books a second. IBM has so far poured $15 billion into the project.
In 2011, Watson defeated the top-rated Jeopardy game show contestant by answering the question ?What city?s national museum lost the Lion of Nimrod??. The answer was ?What is Baghdad??. (I knew that!).
Today, Watson is on loan to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where it has been deployed to cure cancer.
It took scientists a week to teach Watson how to read medical literature. In the second week, it read every paper published on cancer, some 25 million.
By the third week it was proposing customized cures for advanced cancer patients, which achieved a 33% success rate.
After all, it can read all of the 8,000 cancer papers that are published every day from around the world IN SECONDS!
Scientists say that Watson has so far reached only 1% of its true potential.
It gets better than that.
A clinic can now biopsy your tumor, sequence its DNA, design a custom protein that will target and destroy your personal tumor, mass produce it, inject it in your tumor, and cure you of cancer in a month.
This is being done with human volunteers in clinical trials NOW.
Expect this procedure to go retail in about ten years. And by that I mean cheap, locally available, and covered by your health insurance.
I believe that Watson, and its future offspring, will cure the major human maladies within a decade. My generation will probably be the last to suffer serious disease.
It isn?t just Watson that will take us the great leap forward in computing. By 2020, you will be able to buy a low-end laptop for $500 that can hold ALL KNOWLEDGE ACCUMULATED IN HUMAN HISTORY!
They better hurry. That body of knowledge is doubling every 18 months!
It is a key part of my argument that the US will enjoy a Golden Age and see a return of the ?Roaring Twenties? during the 2020s.
If you have in any way been involved in the stock market for the past five years, AI has invaded your life.
High frequency trading and hedge funds now account for 70% of the daily trading volume on the major stock exchanges, and almost all of this is AI driven.
Having spent my entire life trading stocks, I can confirm that in recent years the market?s character has dramatically changed and not for the better. Call it trading untouched by human hands.
Algorithms are trading against algorithms, and whoever wins the nuclear arms race brings home the big bucks.
You used to need degrees in Finance and Economics, or perhaps an MBA, to become a professional fund manger. Now it?s a PhD in Computer Science.
Remember the May, 2010 flash crash, when the Dow Average plunged 1,100 points in minutes, wiping out $4.1 billion in equity value? AI?s fingerprints were all over that.
And only weeks ago, the British pound lost 6% of its value in a mere two minutes, a move unprecedented in the history of foreign exchange markets. The culprit was AI.
Don?t expect the path forward to AI to be an easy one.
Indeed, the machines already have the power of life and death over all of us.
No less figures than Nobel Prize winner, Dr. Stephen Hawking, and Tesla?s Elon Musk have warned that computers and the Internet may have the power to pose a threat to human existence within a decade.
They are especially concerned about the militarization of powerful robots, something I know the US Defense Department is hell bent on developing.
As I write this, the only thing preventing a drone attacking a village in Afghanistan is an Army corporal hitting a red button on a console in Nevada.
In the future, antivirus software won?t be needed to protect your computer. It will be essential to protect you FROM your computer.
You know that massive denial of service attack that hit the United States on October 21, 2016?
I asked one of my friends at security giant Palo Alto Networks (PANW) if it was the Russians again. He replied, ?You better hope it?s the Russians.?
The implication is that the Internet may have launched the attack itself.
Now, about that stock recommendation.
Since we aren?t venture capitalists we can?t buy into pure AI firms in their early stages. And I?m too old to get a PhD in computer science.
We therefore have to be sneaky and get in through the back door via an indirect play which still has plenty of upside leverage.
What is the one medium sized, publicly traded company that most benefits from the AI explosion?
I have found exactly such a company (it was small at the beginning of the year) that represents the marrying of the f
our biggest trends in technology today: AI, self-driving cars, big data, and virtual reality.
That would be Nvidia (NVDA).
The Santa Clara, California based company manufactures graphics-processing units (GPUs) for the gaming market as well as system-on-a-chip units (SOCs).
It is heavily involved in super computing and mobile computing, producing processors for tablets, iPhones, and vehicle navigation systems.
Nvidia, named after the Roman god, Nemesis, was founded in 1993. It was the original supplier of processors for the Microsoft Xbox and Sony?s (SNE) PlayStation 3.
In 2011, it demonstrated the first quad-core processor for mobile devices.
Nvidia has been on an acquisition tear over the past decade, picking up more than a dozen companies to expand its reach in the most advanced AI and manufacturing technologies, as well as picking up some first class talent.
Nvidia has more engineers working on AI than any other company or institution in the world.
Its integrated stack of imaginative chip designs is unmatched.
Its principal competitors are Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC) and QUALCOM (QCOM).
I spoke to Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang right after the company announced blockbuster second quarter results, when sales rocketed by 110% year-on-year.
The Taiwan born, Stanford grad co-founded Nvidia in 1993. He bubbled with enthusiasm about the company?s prospects.
He said that deep learning (AI) was progressing much faster than he imagined possible, where major firms use massive clusters of his company?s GPUs.
AI will be the number one driver of Nvidia?s earnings going forward.
Huang also told me that self-driving cars will profoundly change society, and much sooner than you think.
The company has disruption written all over it.
Stock analysts have been stumbling over each other to upgrade their shares, with near term upside targets of over $100 now commonplace. Hint: that?s 51.51% higher than the recent close.
Sales of Nvidia?s flagship product, the passively cooled 16GB Tesla P100 GPU, is being ravenously consumed by data centers around the country, and should grow by 95% during 2016, and another 50% in 2017.
Hold one of these dense, wicked fast processors in your hand and you possess nothing less than the future of western civilization.
Over the long term, the picture looks even better. It should continue with annual earnings growth of 20%-30% a year for the foreseeable future.
At a minimum, the shares have at least another double in them, and perhaps another double after that as well.
To learn more about Nvidia, please visit their website at Nvidia
Sounds like a peach of a long-term investment to me.
As for your computer, you better start leaving it unplugged at night. You never know.
She?s Smarter Than You Think
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-with-Tesla-e1463435153171.jpg385400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-02 01:06:232016-11-02 01:06:23The Great Artificial Intelligence Stock Play You?ve Never Heard Of
Featured Trade: (THE QUANTUM COMPUTER IN YOUR FUTURE), (AMZN), (GOOG), (FREE REPLAY LINK FOR THE GREAT JOHN THOMAS VERSUS HARRY DENT DEBATE), (WATCH OUT FOR THE MILLENNIAL VOTER)
This event made the Clinton Trump debates pale by comparison.
It was a knock down, drag out, tooth and nail affair.
Think of mud wrestling meets extreme fighting.
Over one and a half hours, Harry and I covered every asset class, each major geopolitical trend, as well as the outcome of the presidential election and its impact on the markets.
If you are looking for a relaxed and pleasant evening with your significant other, this is definitely NOT the place to go. You?re better off watching Dancing With the Stars.
However, if you are looking for insights with which to artfully trade the markets or expertly invest your retirement portfolio, you have come to the right place.
Using my not inconsiderable powers of persuasion, I managed to obtain a link to a replay of our earth- shaking debate FOR FREE.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-Thomas-Harry-Dent-e1477452680675.jpg301580DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-01 01:07:342016-11-01 01:07:34Free Replay Link for the John Thomas Versus Harry Dent Debate
I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market.
Well, politics is no different.
Millennials were born during 1982-1998, and are now aged 18-34 (I have three of them).
According to recent surveys, they are suspicious of government, have a strong anti-business bias, are opposed to new regulation, are highly conscious of environmental issues, and universally believe in global warming.
They are also overwhelmingly pro-choice, support same sex marriage, and back the legalization of marijuana, even in red states.
Millennials also happen to care the least about health care, apparently believing they can live forever, and are a major headache for Obamacare.
They put a high value on ethics.
We also have learned that they don't bother to vote in midterm elections, but can have an outsized influence on presidential elections.
?This is important because the Millennium Generation surpassed in size the 80 million strong baby boomer generation, exceeding 85 million in total.
No wonder this election focused so much energy on online campaigning and social media. Is the outcome of future elections to be determined by clicks and bandwidth? You betcha!
The data effectively means that the population of liberals is growing, while that for conservatives is shrinking, confirming the long term march of history.
This is why sedition, slavery, Indian removals, child labor, horizontal monopolies, poisonous food, and harmful drugs are illegal, and women and eighteen year olds have the right to vote.
Politician planners and makers of campaign tchotchke take note.
Deciding the Next Election
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/College-Kids.jpg181362Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-01 01:06:562016-11-01 01:06:56Watch Out for the Millennial Voter
The nation is sitting on the edge of its seats and holding its collective breath.
No, I?m not talking about the presidential election, dummy!
I?m referring to the World Series, and whether the Chicago Cubs will break a 108-year losing streak.
Go Cubs!
Welcome to the best trading week of the year.
Yes, historically, the first trading week of November has the highest year-on-year return of any week of the year, based on data going back 70 years.
You know that ?Sell in May and go away? thing? The flipside is ?Buy in November and hold until May? which kicks in tomorrow.
This is the six months of the year that, for the past seven decades, have delivered the ENTIRE positive return for US equity investment.
Except that this time, a certain development which occurred last Friday may turn this precedent upside down.
That would be a new batch of emails.
That?s just what the Clinton campaign DIDN?T want to hear 11 days before the presidential election.
Stocks sold off, but recovered when it was learned that the source was Anthony Weiner, the infamous and disgraced ?sexting? former congressman.
So what are we looking for here? Dirty pictures?
I know for sure that Weiner and his wife are NOWHERE on the security clearance ladder, so it's highly unlikely that they have anything of consequence.
I doubt it will change a single vote.
After pounding away on the email issue all day, every day for a year, Donald Trump has exhausted the issue. We all have hardened scar tissue on our nerve endings regarding this matter.
A Clinton win is a done deal. At least the stock market thinks so. Notice how the health care and energy sectors got hammered on Friday while the general market selloff was over in minutes.
These politically sensitive, high beta sectors would be rocketing if investors thought The Donald was about to occupy the White House.
Listen to what the stock market is telling you.
Still, all are bracing for the newest revelations about both candidates in the final week before the election.
The Clinton bombshell is now out. What will the next Trump bombshell look like?
Perish the thought.
With the national election decided, look for Californians to focus on local initiatives.
Look for the Golden State to cap drug prices, legalize marijuana, approve massive new school bond issues, permanently raise taxes on the ultra wealthy, add a $2 a pack tax on cigarettes, require condoms for porn stars, introduce a one cent an ounce tax on sodas, allow early parole for non violent offenders, ban the death penalty, require background checks for ammunition purchases, prohibit supermarket plastic bags and approve world peace (I made the last one up).
The state-issued voter guide is a positively wrist breaking 224 pages (I read the whole thing).
With all the excitement of the technology earnings now behind us, the coming week is likely to be more sedentary on the reporting front.
Although no one knows it, we have a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting this week where they are expected to do exactly nothing. The fireworks aren?t expected to happen until mid December.
And, yikes, we get the Nonfarm Payroll Report on Friday.
Traders will certainly be earning their crust of bread this week.
Monday, October 31st at 9:45 AM EST, we get the ChicagoPurchasing Managers Index.
That night, millions of trick or treaters will be canvassing the country foraging for free candy.
On Tuesday, November 1st at 9:00 AM EST we get a new update on the ISM Manufacturing Index. Given last week?s sharp GDP upgrade, the report should be interesting, to say the least.
On Wednesday, November 2nd at 2:00 PM EST, the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. We should also pay careful attention to the EIA Petroleum Status Report, due out at 10:30 AM EST.
Thursday, November 3rd, we learn the PMI Services Index at 9:45 AM EST, following the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM.
On Friday, November 4th at 8:30 AM EST we get the October Nonfarm Payroll Report. I am expecting a print around 200,000, but we could run hotter, given the recent GDP report.
1:00 PM delivers us the Baker HughesRig Count. Worryingly for oil producers, the trend has been up for the past 17 out of 18 weeks.
Good luck going door to door tonight. You never know who you might run into.
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