Featured Trade: (TRUMP?S GIFT TO TRADERS), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD), (USO), (CAT), ?(X), (FCX), (BAC), (GS), (LEN), (ITB)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) United States Oil (USO) Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) United States Steel Corp. (X) Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Lennar Corporation (LEN) iShares US Home Construction (ITB)
In 50 years of trading, I have never seen markets turn on a dime as they did last week. As a result, they have created some of the best trading opportunities of the century.
The sector rotation has been fast and furious. And trading volumes across all asset classes exploded to their highest levels in years.
Of course, they were responding to the biggest election upset in history which flipped the direction of the global economy 180 degrees in a heartbeat.
I am suddenly reminded of economist John Maynard Keynes' famous quote: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir"?
My ancestors hailed from Missouri, before they moved to California during the 1849 gold rush. Their black and white tintypes adorn the walls of my Lake Tahoe estate.
Every time I cross Donner Pass on Interstate 80, I remember their gaunt grim faces.
And you know what the motto of the state Missouri is?
SHOW ME!
Incredible as it may seem, I am already in touch with several senior officials of the Trump administration, thanks to my ancient Wall Street ties.
That will give me an early read on which Trump policies are campaign fluff, which will be seriously watered down, and the few that will actually be implemented.
AS EVERYONE IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS KNOWS, THIS IT TRADING GOLD!
Early indications are that the incoming economic policies will be Reagan 2.0.
I remember well the jovial, backslapping president, who served from 1982-1990. I knew him too well for 25 years.
For three decades, he campaigned from the far right, championing McCarthyism, bemoaning Rowe versus Wade, demanding a balanced budget, and constantly warning of the communist threat.
The day he got into office he forgot all of this, negotiating huge arms reduction treaties with the Russians, and never lifting a finger to curtail women's rights.
We know how Reagan 1.0 ended. Thanks to large tax cuts and massive spending increases, the national debt skyrocketed 400%, from $1 trillion to $4 trillion. The bond market got killed.
And despite all his saber rattling on the campaign trail, Reagan never ensnared America in a single serious war.
Trump could well do the same. The big shock of the decade would be how fast Trump rushes to the middle.
But he has to "SHOW ME" first.
I am expecting a similar result with Reagan 2.0. Certainly the bond market thinks so, the ten-year Treasury yield adding a hair-raising 40 basis points in yield in a mere three days.
What we do know for sure is virtually the entire investment industry has been caught seriously wrong footed by the Trump win.
They were all, to a person, perfectly positioned for a Clinton win, and owned a heavily-weighted Clinton portfolio.
What they got was a Trump wild card.
IT WILL TAKE YEARS FOR INSTITUTIONS TO ROTATE SECTORS AND REPOSITION FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER.
THIS IS NOTHING LESS THAN THE GREATEST GIFT TO TRADERS OF ALL TIME.
There is one great structural tailwind to this unbelievable sector rotation.
It takes you out of over owned, expensive sectors close to all time highs, like technology, that have been leading the market for most of this decade.
It moves you into under owned, cheap sectors, such as financials, heath care, commodities, and energy, that have been despised for years .
That's fine with me. I was getting tired of chasing technology for small incremental gains at the risk of gigantic one-day crashes, some four in the last 15 months.
You can make a lot more money buying stocks off of five-year bottoms than seven-year tops.
Maybe I can squeeze a few thousands basis points of performance out in 2016?
I have presented four Emergency Strategy Webinars for major hedge funds, clients, and the Online Trader's Summit in as many days.
Financial advisors tell me they are finding the points contained enormously helpful in explaining the New World Order to their clients.
So I am giving them to you in full below:
THE NEW WORLD ORDER:
Control of the Presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Supreme Court mean the Republicans have a free hand
Republicans blocked fiscal spending for eight years, but will now move forward full steam ahead
$1 trillion in new infrastructure spending in the Midwest amounts to Quantitative Easing 5.0
Massive Keynesian stimulus could double US economic growth in the short term
Inflation will make an earlier return
It all adds up to a big RISK ON and BUY!
THE NEW BIG TRENDS:
OUT WITH THE NEW & IN WITH THE OLD
WINNERS:
Value The Economy Deregulation Taxpayers Domestic US Stocks Defense Stocks Inflation Oil & Gas Commodity Stocks Bridges and Freeways The Midwest Rust Belt The US Dollar Savers Homeowners Cheap Stocks
THE NEW STOCK PLAYS:
Get These Right and You'll Retire Early
Caterpillar (CAT) - Infrastructure
US Steel (X) - Infrastructure
Nucor (NUE) - Steel
Pfizer (PFE) - Big Pharma
Ely Lily (LLY) - Big Pharma
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Defense
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) - Commodities
Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Big Oil
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - Energy
Bank of America (BAC) - Financials
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Financials
Lennar Homes (LEN) - Homebuilding
LOSERS:
Growth Globalization Regulation Multinational Stocks Telecom and Utilities Emerging Markets The Budget Deficit Solar Energy Bonds Yield Plays The Euro The Japanese Yen Borrowers Renters Expensive Stocks
THE OLD STOCK PLAYS:
Time to Say "Thank You Very Much" and Unload:
Alphabet (GOOG) - Technology
Apple (AAPL) - Technology
Facebook (FB) -Technology
Amazon (AMZN) - Technology
Tesl
a (TSLA) - Electric Cars
First Solar (FSLR) - Solar Panels
Sun Power (SPWR) - Solar Panels
General Motors (GM) - Globalization
AT&T (T) - Telecommunications
Mexico (EWW) - Mexico ETF
China (FXI) - China ETF
Euro (FXE) - Euro ETF
Yen (FXY) - Yen ETF
Gold (GLD) - Gold
THE BOND MARKET: THE FAT LADY IS SINGING:
Sell Short every Five Point Rally in the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) for the next Ten Years
Bonds are Toast
The first fiscal stimulus in eight years will pour $1 trillion into infrastructure spending
Taxes will be cut across the board, concentrated for the wealthy and business
Replenishing of the military adds further spending demands
All of this adds $10 trillion to the national debt in eight years
Throw in a new war and that doubles it to $20 trillion
Is a replay of the 400% rise in national debt under Reagan during 1982-1990, when Treasury bond yields hit 12%
Interest rates will rocket
Buy the Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT)
FOREIGN CURRENCIES: DOLLAR RALLY CONTINUES
Rising interest rates have the US dollar rocketing against all other currencies
Interest rate differentials are the biggest driver of foreign exchange rates
Buy the US Dollar Index ETF (UUP), calls, call spreads, and futures on dips
Yen fundamentals are as bad as ever, the Japanese will be the last to raise interest rates, if ever, expect a long-term decline, sell short Japanese Yen Trust (FXY), or buy the Ultrashort Yen (YCS)
Future of Euro is dependent on whether or not the EC breaks up
ENERGY: THE DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD
Stronger economy is oil positive
But a trade war with China, the world's largest new marginal consumer, could cause demand to slow there
Any run up to $60 will see new US fracking production pour into the market
Sell rallies up to $52, buy dips to $40
PRECIOUS METALS: TRUMPED!
Spiking interest rates are hugely negative for gold (GLD)
Current selloff creates a great entry point for long term investors
When inflation really shows up, that is when you want to pile back into gold
China and emerging nations have to buy several thousand tonnes to bring their holdings up to western level
Should take prices from $1,250 to $5,000 an ounce in 15 years
REAL ESTATE: A 20-YEAR BOOM
Millennial demographic wave is about to drive US home prices northward for the next 20 years
Only 2.4 million homes are for sale, down -6.8% YOY, creating a severe shortage; normally, homes for sale rise in the fall which predicts a very hot market in the spring
US home building is proceeding at less than half the peaks seen in the 2000s, despite rapidly rising demand, creating a structural shortage
Home equity has been the top-performing, individually owned asset class for the past 5 years
The Only Audited Trading Performance Online
?Average Annual Return +37.18%
Major Stimulus with Jobless Claims at a 43-Year Low? Hugely Inflationary
What a Difference a Day Makes!
Oops! THE NEW WORLD ORDER
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Trump-Pence-e1479001844658.jpg266400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-14 01:06:232018-04-27 19:52:33Trump's Gift to Traders
?Managing money is going to be fun over the next six months.? said Jeffrey Gundlach of Double Line, on the surprise Trump election win.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/John-with-Beware-of-Bull-Sign.jpg465462DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-14 01:05:102016-11-14 01:05:10November 14, 2016 - Quote of the Day
I just finished a 48-hour nonstop slog trying to figure out the trading and investment consequences of The New World Order, and then to get the message out to my subscribers.
So, I am taking a hard earned day off today.?
It is Veterans Day, and I?ll be putting on my faded Marine Corp fatigues, with gold railroad track bars on my shoulders, and leading the hometown parade. So, I thought it would be a good day to tell you the story of my Uncle Mitch.
Since job prospects for high school graduates in rural Pennsylvania in 1936 were poor, Mitch walked 200 miles to the nearest Marine Corp recruiting station in Baltimore.
After basic training, he spent five years rotating between duty in China and the Philippines, manning the fabled gunboats up the Yangtze River.
When WWII broke out, he was a seasoned sergeant in charge of a machine gun platoon. That put him with the seventh regiment of the First Marine division at Guadalcanal in October, 1942.
When the Japanese counterattacked, Mitch was put in charge of four Browning .30 caliber water-cooled machine guns and 33 men, dug in at trenches on a ridge above Henderson Field.
The Japanese launched massive waves of suicide attackers in a pouring tropical rainstorm all night long, frequently breaking through the line and engaging in fierce hand-to-hand combat.
If the position fell, the flank would have been broken, leading to a loss of the airfield, and possibly the entire battle. WWII would have lasted two more years.
After the first hour, all of Mitch's men were either dead or severely wounded, shot or slashed with samurai swords.
So Mitch fired one gun until it was empty, then scurried over to the next, and then the next. In between human waves, he ran back and reloaded all the guns.
To more easily pitch hand grenades, he cut the arms off his herringbone fatigues. When the Japanese launched their final assault, and then retreated, he picked up a 40-pound Browning and ran down the hill after them, firing all the way, and burning all the skin off his left forearm.
Mitch's commanding officer, Col. Herman H. Hanneken, heard the guns firing all night from the field below.
He was shocked when he visited the position the next morning, finding Mitch alone in front of a twisted sea of 1,000 Japanese bodies, not a scratch on him.
Mitch was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor in Australia a few months later.
?
Henderson?s Ridge in 1942
After the war, Mitch, now a colonel, was handed the plum of all Marine Corp jobs, acting as the liaison officer with Hollywood.
?
He provided the planes, ships, and beaches needed to make the great classic war films. He got to know stars like John Wayne, Lee Marvin, and yes, even Elvis Presley.?
The iconic fictional hero in the 1949 film, Sands of Iwo Jima, Sergeant John M. Striker, was modeled after Mitch.
Tradition dictated that all military officers salute Mitch, even five star generals, and he was given a seat to attend every presidential inauguration from FDR on.
?
Pacific countries issued stamps with his image, and Mattel sold a special GI Joe in his likeness.?
When Mitch got older and infirm, I used my captain's rank to escort him on diplomatic missions overseas to attend important events, like the 40th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy.
Whenever Mitch was in town, he would join me for lunch with some of my clients with a history bent, and a more humble and self-effacing guy you never met.
Mitch passed away in 2003 while he was working as a technical consultant for the pre-production of the HBO series, The Pacific.
?
The funeral in Riverside, California was marked by an eagle continuously circling overhead which, according to the Indian shaman present, only occurs at the services for great warriors.
When I get back from the parade, I'll take out the samurai sword Mitch captured on that fateful day, a 1692 Muneshige, the hilt still scarred with 30-caliber slugs, and give it a ritual polishing in sesame oil and powdered deer horn, as samurai have done for millennia.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Medal-of-Honor.jpg463342Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-11 01:06:342016-11-11 01:06:34A Tribute to a True Veteran
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) United States Steel Corp. (X) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Apple Inc. (AAPL) QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) iShares MSCI Mexico Capped (EWW) AT&T, Inc. (T) Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Talk about a game changer, a disruption of the status quo of the first order.
With the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, and the retaining of the House of Representatives and the Senate by the Republican Party, we are looking at nothing less than a new world order.
After staying awake for the past 48 hours, speaking to seasoned money managers, strategists, and even senior economic advisors to the new president, I think I have a sense of the immediate trading opportunities that have been placed before us, as well as the long-term impacts.
What we are looking at are permutations of permutations of permutations.
Call it a trader?s dream come true, and it is heralding the greatest sector rotation of all time.
Donald Trump?s campaign was so far off the grid that it couldn?t be measured by traditional tools used by Democrats, Republicans, or even Trump himself.
There is no way Google (GOOG) was going to be able to effectively analyze a demographic that doesn?t know how to use a computer or use electricity. And no one was more surprised than Trump.
While Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, a highly vocal minority turned out to be large enough to win 278 Electoral Votes, sufficient for a Trump win.
All it took was a swing of 60,000 votes that came out of nowhere in rural Pennsylvania. The butterfly flaps its wings.
We trade the market we have, not the one we want. So let's get on with the important business of making money.
We got the 1,000 point sell off I predicted for the Dow Average. Who knew we would make a round trip? in hours.
Did you like the effect Ben Bernanke?s quantitative easing (QE) 1,2,3, and 4 had on your asset prices? Donald Trump just handed you QE 5 in the form of his proposed $1 trillion infrastructure budget.
Dumping this amount of cash on the economy will raise GDP growth for the short term, but also invite an earlier return of inflation and higher interest rates.
For years, analysts searched the horizon for causes of the next recession and found none. Now we have an obvious one, a US growth spurt that sparks inflation and leads to another Fed induced series of interest rate spikes. This could be a 3-4 year time horizon.
The bond markets are telling us as much, with ten year Treasury bond yields (TNX) rocketing an eye popping 17 basis points today, smashing through 2.02%.
What this brings us is a higher high in stock prices, followed by another crash a few years down the road. This is simply the boom and bust cycle that has been a hallmark of capitalism since time immemorial.
I?ll start with a clear list of winners and losers from a Trump administration.
WINNERS
Banks Health Care Big Oil US Dollar Infrastructure Commodities Gold Domestic Businesses The Wealthy Russian Ruble The Midwest Rust Belt States
LOSERS
Alternative Energy Solar Gun makers Bonds Utilities REITS Emerging Markets Technology Large Multinationals The Poor The Euro and Yen The Mexican Peso The Coasts
Here is the interesting thing for stock traders:
The sectors benefiting from the New Order have been in long-term secular bear markets. The losers have been in bull markets and are just coming off of all time highs.
So there are a series of sector rotations going on here which, if you get them right, could deliver out performance for years to come.
Let me spell it out for you. Buy domestic plays like commodities (FCX), infrastructure, construction (CAT), steel (X), banks (BAC), energy (XOM), and health care (XLV).
Sell international plays such as technology (AAPL), semiconductors (QCOM), large multinationals (AMZN), emerging markets (EEM) (EWW), yield plays, utilities, telecommunications (T), REITs (SPG), solar (FSLR), and other alternative energy stocks (SCTY).
I?ll make a few quick comments on each asset class.
Banks will benefit from steeply rising interest rates, the repeal of Dodd-Frank, and the end of the Volker Rule limiting risk taking. So the starting gun has been fired for the next financial crisis years off.
Health care will prosper from the end of Obama Care and the freedom to raise prices at will. Narrow monopolies will persist, and price gouging will grow.
The energy industry will face a double-edged sword. Big oil will love the rollback of environmental regulation.
On the other hand, a trade war with China will slow growth there, the world?s largest new consumer of energy, keeping oil prices lower for longer.
With a big infrastructure spend on the way, commodities, steel, and construction are all obvious plays.
Big tax cuts will favor companies with large domestic businesses and income, but not so much for those with large international trade.
Of course, the big winners are the One Percent, who will see their fabulous tax breaks preserved, if not expanded, especially the golden ?net operating loss carry forward? that Trump has mined so successfully.
Concerning the losers, now that the denial of global warming is official government policy, you can pretty much kiss solar energy goodbye.
The various tax incentives for investment there will soon be a distant memory. Notice that Tesla (TSLA) shares were down $10 today during a massively strong market.
Tougher trade deals and the tearing up of international treaties come at the expense of every emerging stock market.
Bonds are now in a 20-year bear market, but then we already knew that. That?s why I have been selling every rally in the Treasury bond market (TLT) for the past three months.
What?s on the table now is a prolonged move that could take yields up to 6% in coming years.
Adding a turbocharger will be the $10 trillion in new government debt Trump?s combination of tax cuts and spending hikes will bring. Remember, Trump is a "debt guy" big time.
Throw in a new war with Iran, or anyone else, and you can double that figure, taking our total national debt up to $40 trillion. Recall that Trump said on many occasions that ?We?ll bomb the s? out of them.? We?ll find out how real that sentiment is.
Oh, and an abrogation of the Iran nuclear deal gives them an operational weapon within a year. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it. Hope you don?t have any draft age sons.
Gold (GLD) will sniff out the coming inflation sooner rather than later, and resume its new bull trend. Did you notice the $50 knee jerk move last night? That?s what that was all about.
Of course, the US dollar will love all this, as it will become the preeminent high-yielding currency for the next several years. Woe to the Euro (FXE), the Japanese yen (FXY), and the Australian dollar (FXA).
Fortunately, I saw this one coming, and went into the election short the euro, which provided a nice hedge for my equity plays.
Real estate, both residential (LEN) and commercial, will have a spurt in the short term, as buyers rush to beat rising home mortgage rates.
However, we know that this always ends in a bubble and a crash, probably within three years.
It?s that capitalism thing again.
I was looking forward to a quiet and easy retirement in the years ahead. It looks like that is just not in the cards for me.
Here?s the New World Order
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Trump-Finger-Wagging-Acceptance-Speech-e1478748827389.jpg275400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-10 01:06:242016-11-10 01:06:24The New World Order
?Pollsters are zero for two this year. They should find new jobs.? said investor Nelson Peltz.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/L-is-for-Loser-e1478746099765.jpg164300DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-10 01:05:442016-11-10 01:05:44November 10, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 18TH LAS VEGAS, NV GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (THE WAR IS OVER) (WHY FRACKING WILL MAKE YOUR 2017 PERFORMANCE), (USO), (DIG), (UNG), (XOM), (OXY), ?(DVN), (APC), (COG)
United States Oil (USO) ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG) United States Natural Gas (UNG) Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG)
Ulysses S. Grant was a man only America could produce.
A shy boy who was exceptionally good with math and horses, his father gained him entry to the US Military Academy at West Point without even telling him. Not an outstanding student, he graduated in the lower half of his class.
During the Mexican War of 1846, he was disappointed when put in charge of the Quartermaster Corps. He later become an alcoholic when sent to a distant post in Northern California, and left the Army in disgrace in 1854.
A series of disappointments followed in real estate speculation, farming, and debt collection. He ended up working as a clerk in his father?s leather goods shop in Galena, Illinois when the Civil War broke out in 1861.
Suddenly, his logistical skills were greatly valued by an army that was ramping up in size from tens to hundreds of thousands.
He was quickly promoted to brigadier general and went on to win a series of victories unprecedented in American history: Fort Donaldson, Shiloh, Vicksburg (where my ancestor served), Atlanta, the Wilderness, and Richmond.
His recurring strategy would be very familiar to any US Marine today: attack, attack, attack! He is viewed by many as the greatest general of the 19th century.
When Robert E. Lee surrendered the Confederate army in 1865 at Appomattox Court House, there was enormous political pressure from the North for Grant to enforce harsh and vindictive peace terms.
The Confederate Army was starving, so he immediately gave them 450,000 rations, which, as a logistics expert, he just so happened to have on hand.
He permitted the rebel army to keep one rifle per seven men to protect themselves from roving brigands.
Grant made the full resources of the US Navy available to the defeated army?s men to get them home. Many of the exhausted soldiers had traveled over 1,000 miles to fight in Northern Virginia.
He knew that the men would be returning to cities and farms that had been ravaged by the war. He did what he could to help them restart their lives.
Finally, General Lee was permitted to keep his sword, an important symbolic gesture. Historians believe that Grant?s generous terms substantially shortened the war and saved 100,000 lives.
Grant?s rationale for the soft terms was simple: ?We are all Americans now.?
Grant went on to become US president for 8 years, from 1868-76.
His work was considered vital in reuniting a sharply divided country.
His memoir, completed a week before he died, and published by Mark Twain, became the biggest seller in history up to that time.
At his 1885 funeral, his coffin was fittingly carried by three Union and three Confederate generals.
America has just undergone perhaps the most serious internal divide since the Civil War. One side may be ebullient and celebratory, while the other is disappointed, bitter, and disillusioned.
I think it is time for all of us to move on and apply ourselves to the important business of making America the great shining city on the hill.
That?s how the rest of the world sees us.
We should too.
We are all Americans now.
Now for that Trade Alert.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ulysses-S-Grant-e1478665426825.jpg238400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-11-09 01:06:552016-11-09 01:06:55The War is Over
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