It was the kind of dinner invitation I couldn?t turn down. What I learned was amazing.
I usually prefer to spend my evenings at home catching up on my research, calling subscribers, and plotting my next Trade Alert.
So it takes a lot to get me out of my cozy digs, especially during an evening of rare torrential downpours.
Attending would be senior executives from Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (GM), and engineering professors from the University of California at Berkeley and the California Air Resources Board.
With US car production blasting through 17 million annual units, a new all time high, I thought the topic was particularly timely. That, by the way, has been my target all year.
The dinner was hosted by a retired billionaire from Microsoft at the top of the Mark Hopkins Hotel in San Francisco.
The topic for discussion would be the very long-term future of the car industry. I get invited to these things because the guests want to know how their views fit in within a long-term global geopolitical/economic context, my own particular specialty.
I didn?t want to cramp anyone?s style, so I kept my notebook under the table and scribbled away blindly and illegibly. There?s no particular story line here. I?ll just give you my random thoughts.
GM launched its second generation Chevy Volt last year, and the customer response has been fantastic.? The company is building a new $400 million battery plant on the east coast to help meet demand.
Some 60% of the buyers are coming from other automakers. It is fast becoming the new face of Chevy, like the Corvette Stingray and Camaro of years past.
The future is in a 200-mile range $30,000 car, and the Volt is that car, followed by the recently launched Bolt. Customers want to get away from oil and will only buy the products that accomplish that, be they hybrids or all electric.
He also mentioned that GM is launching an electric bike next year which is already widespread in Europe. Not a big needle mover there.
The Tesla guy then proceeded to jump all over him, saying the Volt was ?green washing? as usual, since it represents only a tiny fraction of the company?s sales.
GM had a vested interest in promoting the internal combustion engine, in which it had made a century- long investment. Its real focus can be seen in the giant new Suburban factory it is now building in Texas.
Mr. Tesla had driven from the south Bay with his S-1 entirely on autopilot. The hardware has already been pre installed in every S-1 produced since 2014, and all that is needed to make them self driving is to execute a wireless overnight software upgrade.
What is truly amazing is that each car will have a learning program unique to the vehicle. If it misses a hard turn the first time, it will remember that turn and then make it perfectly every time thereafter.
The Tesla person said that once the new Gigafactory comes online in 2017, the company will be on schedule for a tenfold ramp up in car production by 2020.
The $35,000 Tesla 3 that will make this possible will be offered in two-wheel and four-wheel drive variations. That will take them from 92,000 units a year to 500,000.
I asked him if this means that, if your wife suspects you are cheating, will your Tesla rat you out? He answered, ?Only if she is a coder.?
Then I wondered what would stop Tesla from selling your driving habits to marketers, who would then make special offers from stores you prefer. A previous Tesla experiment landed me a pair of Seven for All Mankind designer jeans for half off.
Tesla outsold every other luxury car of its class during the first half of 2016, including the Mercedes S class, the BMW Series 7, and the Audi 8.
Among the US car industry, only Ford and Tesla have never filed for bankruptcy. Tesla is the first new car manufacturer to succeed since Chrysler made its debut in 1928.
I asked about the S-1 maximum single charge range achieved by a driver. An enthusiast in Norway managed to take one 800 miles on a flat track with no wind and perfect conditions. Wow! My drive from Lake Tahoe record of 400 miles doesn?t even come close.
He said he was aware of it, but that it takes a long time to get a technology from the bench to the marketplace. Just with their own in-house tinkering, Tesla is boosting battery ranges by 3-5% a year. The current S-1 gets a 290-mile range, compared to my three-year-old 255-mile range.
The Berkeley professor made some interesting observations about Millennials. He said that while 75% of baby boomers got drivers licenses at 16, and 70% of Generation Xer?s did so by then also, only 55% of Millennials took to the road at that age. The rule of thumb for anything regarding Millennials is that they do everything later.
The gentleman from the Air Resources Board brought out some interesting facts. More than 80% of all cancer causing chemicals entering the atmosphere come from diesel engines, so a major effort will be made to cut back emissions from commercial trucks.
Look for the electric fleet coming to a neighborhood near you soon. Goodbye Volkswagen!
Workplace charging of employee cars will be the next big growth area for charging stations.
Half of all greenhouse gases derive from the burning of oil. The biggest savings in greenhouse gas emissions will come from a clampdown on the refining industry. Think Koch Brothers.
I was amazed at his commitment to meet California?s goal of obtaining 50% of its energy from alternative sources by 2030. The oil industry, managed to exempt gasoline from this legislation, SB 350. But Governor Jerry Brown put it back in through an executive order.
The state is paying for the initial build out of hydrogen refueling stations for the new $57,500 Toyota Mirai. A single tank with take the fuel cell vehicle 312 miles.
The state is making major investments in biofuel, planning to obtain 10% of the 50% target from this source.
During a slow moment, I asked a bleach blond trophy girlfriend sitting next to me of her interest in electric cars, expecting the worst. To my surprise, she said that last summer, she drove an electric bike from New York to Los Angeles, towing a trailer with a solar panel cut in half to provide power.
The southern route avoided the high mountain ranges. I noticed she seemed unusually tanned, and it wasn?t from a can.
I was humbled. For once, I knew less about electric cars than anyone else in the room.
After the dinner, I went up to the Tesla executive and told him ?Job well done.? I own one of the oldest S-1s, number 125 off the assembly line,? and the odometer had just turned 54,000 miles, with no major problems.
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https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/John-Plugging-In-Electric-Car-e1475795820512.jpg282400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-07 01:07:142016-10-07 01:07:14The Incredible Future of the Automobile
Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 21ST SAN FRANCISCO, CA GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE TRUMP INSURANCE TRADE), (SPY), ($INDU), (VIX), (INTRODUCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER EXECUTIVECONCIERGESERVICE)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco, CA on Friday, October 21, 2016. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $229.
I?ll be arriving at 11:30 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg238359DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-06 01:08:422016-10-06 01:08:42October 21st San Francisco, CA Global Strategy Luncheon
I have spent a lifetime analyzing risk for major hedge funds, and what I can always rely on is that firms staffed by the smartest people in the industry never fail to underestimate the threats to their business.
Often, they are totally ignorant of the biggest risks of all.
My friend, mathematician Nassim Taleb, explained all of this in his widely read tome, The Black Swan, a few years ago, .
He mentioned the example of a major casino that hired him to analyze their business risk. Management was expecting to find ways to frustrate card counters at black jack, or cash grab-and-run thieves at the roulette wheels.
After doing some simple research, Nassim informed the company that it completely missed the four biggest risks to gambling in Nevada.
For a start, their state gambling license was about to expire, resulting in a potential immediate shutdown and a long and expensive reapplication process.
Next, an irate gambler who lost money parked a truck bomb in front of the casino. It failed to blow up because, not only was the man a poor gambler, he was incompetent at building timers and fuses.
In fact, the casino?s main concerns didn?t even rank in the top ten of business risks and were minor affairs at worst.
As I learned in karate school in Tokyo half century ago, it?s the punch you don?t see coming that knocks you out.
We have another one of those potential punches coming up on November 8th.
Donald Trump is so pitifully behind in the polls that his chances of wining are less that 100:1. You can get 90:10 odds at the betting pools in London. He now has less than five weeks to pull his campaign out of the fire.
But what if he does win?
You can expect the Dow Average to open down 1,000 points at the opening, possibly as much as 2,000 points. I don?t see firm support until we hit 17,000, down 9.1%, or off 1,700 points from the recent high.
Below that, we are looking at the February, 2016 low of 15,500, or a 3,200 point, 17.1% plunge.
When I mention this to subscribers, they recoil in horror. It must be impossible!
I respond, ?No Way Jose!?
I was standing on the equity trading floor at Morgan Stanley on October 19, 1987 when the Dow Average collapsed an incredible 22.1% in one day (from 2,500 to 1,750).
And there really wasn?t anything special happening that day, just the execution of the hedges for an arcane strategy called ?portfolio insurance? that all hit at the same time.
So it behooves us to take out some insurance against the unlikely 100:1 event actually occurring.
I know many hedge funds that are already strapping on this position right now. It is a truly "asymmetric trade" which hedge funds happen to love, one with a very low risk, but a very high possible return.
In fact, there are funds now that are solely devoted to this kind of trade.
This is how you do it.
You buy the cheapest put options you can find deep out-of-the-money for the front month on stock market indexes.
For example, at the October 5th close you could buy the S&P 500 (SPY) November 195 puts for 50 cents. They expire on November 18, 2016.
If Trump loses, you write off your entire investment.
However, if he wins, it?s another story completely.
Let?s say the (SPY) opens on November 9th down 10 points. The November 195 puts should rocket by 265%, from 50 cents to $1.32.
And they should rise much more than that, as there will also be a simultaneous explosion in options implied volatility and the Volatility Index (VIX).
If the (SPY) opens down 15 points, not inconceivable, your November 195 puts should soar by 420% to $2.10 or more.
You can play around with the numbers to see what works for you. You can buy (SPY) put options for as little as five cents.
It gets better.
Dozens of hedge funds are already putting this trade on to protect existing long-term core positions.
So you should get a generalized rise in deep out-of-the money put options going into the election even if the stock market continues to trade in a narrow range.
You could make a decent profit on that rise alone, and then take the profit before Election Day.
And what if the election is still undecided by the November 9 opening? Put options will be extremely well bid, even if Clinton eventually wins in a recount (remember 2000), in a tied Supreme Court, or wherever?
A friend of mine did exactly this kind of trade in the run up to the 1987 crash. He had started working at Morgan Stanley only two weeks before. He saw the crash coming on his first day at work.
He then borrowed $10,000 from his dad and bought very deep out of the money (SPY) put options. Everyone thought he was nuts.
On crash day his $10,000 turned into $15 million! He then said ?It?s been great guys,? and retired to start his own hedge fund.
Ask any old timer at Morgan Stanley, and they know the story. Some might even remember his name.
Don?t expect to make $15 million on this trade. However, you should get the kind of asymmetric return you can brag about to your friends for the rest of your life.
I am pleased to announce the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Executive Concierge Service, a program that is aimed at our most valuable clients.
The goal is to provide high net worth individuals with the extra degree of assistance they may require in managing diversified portfolios. Tax, political, and economic issues will all be covered.
It is also the ideal service for the small and medium-sized hedge fund that lacks the resources to support their own in-house global strategist full time.
The service includes the following:
1) A risk analysis of your own personal portfolio with the goal of focusing your investment in the highest return sectors for the long term.
2) A monthly phone call from John Thomas to update you on the current state of play in the global financial markets.
3) An in- personal meeting with John Thomas anywhere in the world once a year to continue our in-depth discussions.
The cost for this highly personalized, bespoke service is $10,000 a year.
To best take advantage of the ExecutiveConcierge Service, you should possess the following:
1) an existing subscription to Mad Hedge Fund TraderPro so you are already well aware of our strengths and limitations;
2) a liquid net worth of over $500,000; and
3) a degree of knowledge and sophistication of financial markets.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/john-headshot-e1475724748969.png400304DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-06 01:06:292016-10-06 01:06:29Introducing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Executive Concierge Service
Featured Trade: (LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND OCTOBER 7th INCLINE VILLAGE, NV GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (11 SURPRISES THAT WOULD DESTROY THIS MARKET), (SPY), (TLT), (FXE), (USO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE) United States Oil (USO)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, NV on Friday, October 7, 2016. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $218.
I?ll be arriving at 11:30 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at the premier restaurant in Incline Village, Nevada on the sparkling shores of Lake Tahoe. Those who live there already know what it is. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheon, please click here.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Lake-Tahoe-e1445285284640.jpg297400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-10-04 01:07:212016-10-04 01:07:21Last Chance to Attend October 7th Incline Village, NV Global Strategy Luncheon
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