Economists around the world have been scanning the horizon with their high powered Zeiss binoculars in search of the cause of the next global recession.
It has been a conundrum of the first order because a recession has NEVER taken place in the face of LOW interest rates and LOW oil prices.
However, we may have just found the trigger.
The possible impending departure of the United Kingdom from the European community has cataclysmic implications for economies everywhere.
We?ll know for sure when the referendum is held on June 23.
Yikes! I?ll be in England then!
The move is being driven by the same factors present in the American Republican Party presidential nomination race.
Working class Brits have lost jobs to a tidal wave of immigrants from the rest of the EC, whose common passports allow unfettered access to Old Blighty.
Take a weekend trip to London, and chances are that the desk clerk is from Poland, the porter is from Croatia, the waitress is from Italy, and the cleaning ladies are from Spain and Greece.
Actual Englishmen are to be found only in distant suburbs, or in unemployment offices.
The recent influx of immigrants from the Middle East has also placed a massive strain on the country?s social services resources.
Visit your local neighborhood National Health GP, and you will share the waiting room with foreign refugees missing arms or legs, or bearing near fatal combat injuries. It?s almost like visiting a wartime MASH unit.
Net net, the view is that EC membership is costing England jobs and money, probably in the billions of pounds per year.
As with the US, the populist view is at odds with the economic reality.
While the UK is a net contributor to the Brussels budget, that misses the point. It is greatly outweighed by the additional economic growth generated by EC membership.
Goods flow freely, duty free between all 23 member countries.
A manufacturer in Birmingham, Leeds, or Manchester doesn?t think twice about jumping on the Channel train to call on customers in Paris, Munich, or Copenhagen.
I often sit next to them during my summer continental travels and also get an update on whatever business they may be in.
A British departure would take nearly 20 years of business integration and dump it into the dustbin of history.
That would be a crushing loss for the British economy, which would lose much of the nearly ?200 billion pounds worth of exports it sent to the EC in 2015. These exports have grown at an impressive 3.6% a year for the past 15 years.
It would also deliver a fatal blow to the City of London, the financial center for all of Europe and one of its largest employers.
I can see the dominoes fall from here.
Europe would lose a similar amount of trade with the UK, taking a chunk out of GDP growth there.
A weak Europe brings a stumbling China, which relies on the continent as its largest customer (yes, even bigger than the US). And a wobbling China will certainly torpedo US exports, increasing volatility in our own financial markets.
In fact, the EC is the world?s largest economic entity. It is hard to see trouble there not spreading everywhere.
The turmoil is already easily visible in the foreign exchange markets. The British pound (FXB) has suffered a gut churning 10.5% nosedive over the past four months to a new ten year low. It has also smothered in the crib the recent rally in the Euro (FXE).
A newly resurgent dollar (UUP) is starting to once again cast a shadow over US multinational earnings.
It seems like the UK is determined to shrink to a smaller country, either by hook or crook.? Only last year, Scotland mounted a campaign to split off from the UK, an effort that eventually failed.
However, it is another one of those cases of being careful what you wish for.
How do you spell ?GLOBAL RECESSION??
Caveat Emptor
I Don't See Anything Yet
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Man-with-Binoculars-e1456964153541.png186400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-03-03 01:07:482016-03-03 01:07:48Will ?Brexit? Cause the Next Recession?
?I think this is about Russia reasserting itself on the international stage, basically saying that Russia is back and is a force to be reckoned with.? I think we underestimated for a long time the extent of the humiliation that Russians felt after the collapse of the Soviet Union,? said former Secretary of Defense and CIA head Robert M. Gates.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Vladimir-Putin.jpg267354Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-03-03 01:05:192016-03-03 01:05:19March 3, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Yes, it seems like it was only yesterday. But as of February 1 the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader has been going out to idea hungry investors now for eight long years.
And what an eight years it has been!
So I will take the opportunity to explain the murky history of this august publication, which is now visited by thousands of readers every day from 137 countries around the world.
I am weak in Mali and North Korea, but am working on that, as soon as they get electricity.
Way back in mid 2007, I was toying with the idea of launching another hedge fund, and started emailing global macro ideas to a list of potential investors. This grew into a daily commentary.
However, I was soon to discover that the regulatory and legal costs of launching a new fund had risen astronomically since the last time I did this in 1989.
The competitive environment had also changed dramatically. When I first started, there were only 20 hedge funds. Now there were 10,000, many with marketing teams in the dozens targeting large institutional clients and pension funds.
The bottom line was that it would cost a minimum of $10 million to get started, and I needed to raise at least $500 million in assets just to break even.
In other words, it was a young man?s game.
So I decided to post my comments on the Internet and see what happened.
Something happened.
First, I had to come up with a name. A quick search at the US Copyright Office records revealed that every possible combination of ?trading?, ?hedge fund?, ?macro?, and ?research? was already taken.
So, I modified the name of an obscure and long forgotten 1970 Alice Cooper movie, ?Diary of a Mad Housewife.? My friends laughed, so I ran with that.
Then, I had to build a website. After obtaining offers from professional website developers to do this for hundreds of thousands of dollars, I decided to try it myself.
With mere teenagers accomplishing this, how hard could it be?
So I spent $5 and bought a used copy of Website for Dummies from Amazon. My goal was to see if I could launch a profitable Internet business for free.
Months of laborious programming followed, where I literally constructed the site on a trial and error basis. Another $5 investment brought a copy of Online Commerce for Dummies. That got me into the arcane world of merchant accounts, search engine optimization, and SSL certificates.
I almost pulled it off. My total up front costs for the launch of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader came to $500.
Finally, I put the letter up for sale on February 1, 2008 for $29 a month. I sold one subscription. I thought ?This was the height of hubris for me to think that someone would pay me money for my ideas on the Internet.?
Then a funny thing happened.
Other financial newsletters started stealing my stories. So I developed a business model that encouraged and profited from stealing.
I started posting pieces on sites that then linked back to my own website, like Seeking Alpha, Business Times, Huffington Post, and Zero Hedge.
It also helped that I got a hold of Google?s 50 page long patent for their search engine, and figured out how to make my site unusually sticky and discoverable by searches.
Traffic started to build.
Then in 2010, I decided to enhance the product. Readers were raving about my trading recommendations, so I decided to create a premium Trade Alert service for $2,000 a year. This was quite a leap of faith, as the price then was $499 a year.
This would give followers the exact details they needed to execute on my ideas, including price, number of contracts, ticker symbols, and potential P&L?s.
The idea was to make subscribers feel like they were sitting at the desk of a top hedge fund trader. We launched the product on November 1, 2010.
I was thinking that I might sell a dozen subscriptions by the end of the year. So I didn?t bother to build an online store, expecting to create one when the traffic grew.
I asked buyers to send checks instead.
Oops!
A week later, I happened to be driving by the post office, so I thought I would stop and pick up the mail. The postal clerk asked me to bring my truck around the back. I said I didn?t have a truck.
Some five minutes later, three out of shape postal workers were dragging a 50-pound mail sack across the floor. It was all for me.
I couldn?t believe it.
To make a long story short, we took in 6,000 checks for $2,000 each over the following three months. It was one of the greatest Internet marketing miracles in history. My $500 investment had suddenly turned into $12 million. Overnight, I become a part of Internet lore.
My entire family spent their Christmas vacation opening up letters and manually entering names and email addresses into an excel spreadsheet.
Then something even more amazing happened. Many checks came with effusive letters of thanks. Much to my amazement, readers had been making hundreds of millions of dollars in profits trading off of my advice.
I had no idea.
I learned of college educations I had funded, mortgages paid off, parents retired early, and uninsured chemotherapy treatments for kids paid off.
Some letters brought tears to your eyes, others laughs. I particularly remember the guy who thanked me for his new Toyota Tundra pickup truck, the luxury trailer that slept eight, the camos, and the AR-15. He was going to visit me on his first cross-country trip.
He did, and I still live to tell about it.
The problem then arose of what to do with the checks. My main bank was then in Las Vegas. I didn?t trust FedEx or UPS, so I stuffed $12 million in checks into a backpack and headed for the airport.
Standing in line, I wondered if the metallic strips on the checks would set off the metal detectors. What was my explanation to Homeland Security going to be as to why I was carrying $12 million in a backpack? Was this all some kind of elaborate money laundering operation? Was I a mafia courier headed for Vegas?
In then end, nothing happened. False alarm. Wild imagination.
Once in Sin City, I took a taxi straight for the bank. No, I was not tempted to head for a casino.
I dropped the backpack at the teller?s window and said ?Please deposit these, I?ll be back.? They said ?Oh no, you can?t go anywhere. You have to stand here and watch us individually deposit each and every single check.?
They put two clerks on it, and it took eight hours. Minutes before closing, they handed me back a fist full of checks, that were unsigned, undated, or made out to me personally. I closed my account there shortly thereafter.
We have since used every opportunity to add services and functionality for subscribers. It?s all about getting you, the customer, to make more money.
I added staff around the world. The text alert service, although expensive, accelerated the Trade Alerts to the speed of light, globally. Hedge Fund Radio made its debut. Then came the travel videos, which I promise to add to when I have time.
We are still growing, and looking for new ways to grow. I am always looking for ways to improve the product. Here next to Silicon Valley they like to say that ?As soon as you think you?re finished, you're finished.?
So true, so true.
Looking at my early letters can be quite amusing.
I strongly recommended that everyone protect their assets by piling into gold (GLD) at $900 an ounce (it went to $1,927). I also suggested traders sell short the dollar against the Euro at $1.40 (it went to $1.03).
There is also mention of Microsoft?s bid for Yahoo at $31/share. Jerry Yang later turned down the offer, and the stock plunged to $8, vaporizing $22 billion of market capitalization. It was one of the worst business decisions in history.
Does the quality of any of these tips sound familiar?
Finally, I want to thank the thousands of subscribers who have supported my research over the years and supported a lifestyle that would make Jay Gatsby envious.
Regards, John Thomas The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/John-Thomas2.jpg371339DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-03-02 01:06:312016-03-02 01:06:31The Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s 8th Anniversary Issue
I think we are at the tag end of the recent unbelievable bout of yen strength.
Triggered by the Bank of Japan?s shocking move to negative interest rates (NIRP), it has been driven by a massive unwind of hedge fund positions in everything around the world that were all financed by short yen positions.
The memo is out now, and the bulk of the ?hot money? positions are gone. After some fits and starts, I expect the yen to resume its long-term structural downtrend shortly.
If for any reasons you can?t do options, just buy the ProShares Ultra Short Yen ETF (YCS) outright. This is the best entry point in a year.
?Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.?
I?m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade.
To remind you why you hate the currency of the land of the rising sun, I?ll refresh your memory with this short list:
1) With the world?s structurally weakest major economy, Japan is certain to be the last country to raise interest rates. Interest rate differentials between countries are the single greatest driver of foreign exchange rates. That means the yen is taking the downtown express.
2) This is inciting big hedge funds to borrow yen and sell it to finance longs in every other corner of the financial markets. So ?RISK ON? means more yen selling, a lot.
3) Japan has the world?s worst demographic outlook that assures its problems will only get worse. They?re just not making enough Japanese any more. Countries that are not minting new consumers in large numbers tend to have poor economies and weak currencies.
4) The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is prompting investors to scan the horizon for the next troubled country. With gross debt well over a nosebleed 270% of GDP, or 160% when you net out inter agency cross holdings, Japan is at the top of the list.
5) The Japanese ten-year bond market, with a yield AT AN ABSOLUTELY EYE-POPPING -0.08%, is a disaster waiting to happen. It makes US Treasury bonds look generous by comparison at 1.70%. No yield support here whatsoever.
6) You have two willing co-conspirators in this trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, who will move Mount Fuji if they must to get the yen down and bail out the country?s beleaguered exporters and revive the economy.
When the big turn inevitably comes, we?re going from the current ?112.75 to ?125, then ?130, then ?150. That works out to a price of $150 for the (YCS), which last traded at $76.88. But it might take a few years to get there.
If you think this is extreme, let me remind you that when I first went to Japan in the early seventies, the yen was trading at ?305, and had just been revalued from the Peace Treaty Dodge line rate of ?360.
To me the ?112.75 I see on my screen today is unbelievably expensive.
Its All Over for the Yen
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Japanese-Girl-e1414074431163.jpg280400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-02-26 01:07:152016-02-26 01:07:15It?s Safe to Sell Short the Yen Again
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