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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Throwing in the Towel on the Bond Market

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

Here are the long-winded, feeble bunch of excuses I promised you.

I have broken every rule in my trading book hanging on to my position in the (TBT) for the past four months. I ignored my own stop losses. I listened to the morons on TV saying interest rates were about to spike up. I took the pile of charts that were telling me there was no bottom in sight, and deliberately lost them behind the radiator.

I even listened to the Fed signaling me with an emergency flare gun that they would raise rates in June.

As a result, I have been punished. Not too severely though, for I did follow one cardinal rule: I kept the position small. I did not double, triple and quadruple up, as many in the hedge fund industry have done.

As a result, I am merely suffering a thrashing in the woodshed, the kind my grandfather used to give me when he caught me shooting out the lights with my .22 rifle on our ranch in Indio, California. This is not a beheading, nor even a water boarding, and not a scintilla of an existential threat.

Still, a $14, 25% loss on a single position is no laughing matter. It?s about as welcome as a slap in the face with a wet mackerel. This is all proof that after 45 years in this business, I can still make the mistakes of a first year intern that was only hired for her good looks, shapely figure and loose morals.

If you told me that US GDP growth was 5%, unemployment was at a ten year low at 5.6%, and energy prices had just halved, I would have pegged the ten-year Treasury bond yield at 6.0%. The US economy created 2.9 million jobs in 2014, the most since 1999. Full employment is now almost a gimme.

Yet here we are at 2.00%.

You might as well take your traditional economic books and throw them in the trash. Apologies to John Maynard Keynes, John Kenneth Galbraith, and Paul Samuelson. It is yet another indication that this market has an insatiable need to teach an old dog new tricks.

After turning a blind eye to the writing on the wall, it?s time for me to read it out to you loud and clear.

The collapse of the German bond market is the big deal here. With the European economy in free fall, and doubts remaining about the ability of quantitative easing to work there under any circumstances, investors are assuming the future demand for money on the beleaguered continent will be zero.

German 10 year bond yields at 0.45% and still falling make 10 year US Treasuries at 2.00% appear the bargain of the century. Governments and hedge funds alike can buy US paper, sell short European paper against it, hedge out the currency risk, and lock in a risk free 1.55% a year for ten years. Sounds like a deal to me.

Multiply this by trillions of dollars and you can see what the problem is.

The other big deal here is the price of oil. I will reiterate my belief that if Texas tea stays down at the $40 handle, it is worth not just a 10% gain in stocks, but a double. The flipside is that interest rates stay far lower for longer than anyone expects, even including the Fed.

People just don?t understand how far reaching the impact of oil prices is. This heralds an entire new leg in the deflation story, one that could continue for years. It completely rules out any chance of a hike in interest rates this year. It is also fantastic news for the US bond market, and terrible for the (TBT).

If you want to add a third strike against continuing with a short bond position, look no further than the string US dollar. Investors around the world are pouring money into the greenback for a host of reasons. What do they do with the dollars when they get here? Buy bonds.

For more depth on why I totally missed the boat on bonds, please click here for ?10 Reasons Why I Am Wrong on Bonds?.

There are also opportunistic issues to consider here.

With implied volatilities on options sky high here, I can slap on almost any other options position and make back my 2.5% loss on the (TBT) in a couple of weeks. So there is no point in tying up 10% of my portfolio in a position that is dying a death of a thousand cuts.

Also, If you have been short the Euro (FXE), (EUO) and the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) after the past seven months, as I begged you to do, you have already more than made back the money.

 

TBT 1-9-15

TLT 1-9-15

John Thomas

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 9, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 9, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A VERY CHICAGO CHRISTMAS),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(BREAKFAST WITH MOHAMED EL-ERIAN)

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Very Chicago Christmas

Diary, Newsletter

There is nothing more enjoyable than partaking in an all you can eat Christmas buffet lunch with a group of friends. That was how my Chicago Global Strategy Luncheon turned out two weeks ago.

Guests came from Detroit, Canada, and remote Illinois. The abundance of roast beef, ham, and turkey on our plates matched the tales of outsized trading returns in 2014. We all had much to give thanks for.

I even managed to dispense some career advice for some of the guests? kids, and no, it was not to go into plastics (with apologies to The Graduate).

Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, was there to back up, or dispute my own market views. Jim has had a particularly hot hand of late, and attendees vigorously pumped him for more guidance.

Countless personal financial advisors have told me that the market color he provides is invaluable, freeing them up for more productive client interactions.

After the lunch, I took a few rare days off to revel in a festive Windy City. I never fail to visit the Chicago Art Institute when in town as it is across the street from my usual abode. The works of the great masters, Van Gogh, Degas, Rodin and Monet, always seem to improve with age. The museum store there is perfect for last minute Christmas shopping.

In the Museum of Modern Art wing there was a special exhibition on the 1960?s urban renewal projects in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. There, I saw photos of the old Victorian buildings in downtown L.A.I remembered as a child, every one now demolished. If this shortsighted city had preserved them, they would be worth a fortune today. That?s why I now live in San Francisco.

At the Museum of Science and Industry I enjoyed this cool interactive experience on the WWII German submarine U-505, which subjected me to an imaginary underwater depth charge attack. A case displaying artifacts found on the ship had a rare pair of 1930?s Zeiss officer?s binoculars. I bought an identical pair years ago at a garage sale for $10 because the case had a broken strap.

I saw Abraham Lincoln?s stovepipe hat at the Chicago History Museum. His suit had my length, but definitely not my waist. He must have been a size 38 extra long. At size 14, we could have shared boots.

One afternoon, I bundled up with every piece of clothing I had and took the Architectural Tour on the Chicago River. A lifelong love of architecture took me to suburban Oak Park to seek out the many masterpieces of Frank Lloyd Wright. I did a drive by in a taxi at Ernest Hemingway?s Home because it was too cold to get out of the car.

I then had a drink in Al Capone?s private booth at The Green Mill, a Depression era speakeasy.

At Navy Pier I picked up a pedestrian fish and chips for lunch. To work off the meal, I rented a City Bike and rode the length of the Chicago waterfront, through Millennium Park all the way to Soldier Field, now nicknamed ?The UFO?.

Of course, I took the dare and stood on the glass floor 108 stories up at the top of the Sears Tower, now known as the Willis Tower.

The service at Gibson?s, one of the world?s greatest steak restaurants, was marvelous as always. They give a detailed description of their many cuts of meat worthy of a medical school. Call my friend there, the maitre d?, Alex Lampugnani, and he?ll set you up with a good table. Just tell him John Thomas sent you.

If you had any doubts about the health of the economy, make a visit to the Water Tower Place shopping Mall on Michigan Avenue. Every store saw massive lines. The parking lots were full, and the streets to get there were jammed. People couldn?t spend money fast enough.

Judging by what I saw, the Q3 GDP growth rate at a blistering 5% is probably a low number. For good measure, I chartered a helicopter for a night tour of Chicago, with a low pass over the spectacular lights at the Lincoln Zoo.

As for the invitation to dive into the freezing waters of Lake Michigan at North Avenue Beach on New Year?s day, this year I decided to give it a pass.

I?ll be back in Chicago for another Global Strategy Luncheon in the spring, and to catch the few parts of the city I missed.

 

John Thomas - Art Museum

John Thomas - Helicopter

John Thomas - Chg Lunch

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/John-Thomas-Art-Museum.jpg 377 372 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-09 01:05:372015-01-09 01:05:37A Very Chicago Christmas
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 8, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 8, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER?S Q1, 2015 VIEWS),
(SPY), (XLV), (XLK), (PCLN), (F),
(TLT), (TBT),
(FXE), (EUO), (FXA), (FXB),
(GLD), (GDX), (SLV),
(USO)
(VIX), (VXX)
(THE MARKETS ARE NOT RIGGED)
(TESTIMONIAL)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)
The Select Sector SPDR Trust - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)
The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares Trust II - ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB)
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
Market Vectors ETF Trust - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
United States Oil Fund LP (USO)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-08 09:45:062015-01-08 09:45:06January 8, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker?s Q1, 2015 Views

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker is expecting the first quarter of 2015 to offer plenty of volatility and loads of great trading opportunities. He thinks the scariest moves may already be behind us.

After a ferocious week of decidedly ?RISK OFF? markets, the sweet spots going forward will be of the ?RISK ON? variety. Sector leadership could change daily, with a brutal rotation, depending on whether the price of oil is up, down, or sideways.

The market is paying the price of having pulled forward too much performance from 2015 back into the final month of 2014, when we all watched the December melt up slack jawed.

Jim is a 40-year veteran of the financial markets and has long made a living as an independent trader in the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He worked his way up from a junior floor runner to advisor to some of the world?s largest hedge funds. We are lucky to have him on our team and gain access to his experience, knowledge and expertise.

Jim uses a dozen proprietary short-term technical and momentum indicators to generate buy and sell signals. Below are his specific views for the new quarter according to each asset class.

Stocks

The S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ have met all of Jim?s short-term downside targets, and a sustainable move up from here is in the cards. But if NASDAQ breaks 4,100 to the downside, all bets are off.

His favorite sector is health care (XLV), which seems immune to all troubles, and may have already seen its low for the year. Jim is also enamored with technology stocks (XLK).

The coming year will be a great one for single stock pickers. Priceline (PCLN) is a great short, dragged down by the weak Euro, where they get much of their business. Ford Motors (F) probably bottomed yesterday, and is a good offsetting long.

Bonds

Jim is not inclined to stand in front of a moving train, so he likes the Treasury bond market (TLT), (TBT). He thinks the 30-year yield could reach an eye popping 2.25%. A break there is worth another 10 basis points. Bonds are getting a strong push from a flight to safety, huge US capital inflows, and an endlessly strong dollar.

Foreign Currencies

A short position in the Euro (FXE), (EUO) is the no brainer here. The problem is one of good new entry points. Real traders always have trouble selling into a free fall. But you might see profit taking as we approach $1.16 in the cash market.

The Aussie (FXA) is being dragged down by the commodity collapse and an indifferent government. The British pound (FXB) is has yet to recover from the erosion of confidence ignited by the Scotland independence vote and has further mud splattered upon it by the weak Euro.


Precious Metals

GOLD (GLD) could be in a good range pivoting off of the recent $1,140 bottom. The gold miners (GDX) present the best opportunity at catching some volatility. The barbarous relic is pulling up the price of silver (SLV) as well. Buy the hard breaks, and then take quick profits. In a deflationary world, there is no long-term trade here. It is a real field of broken dreams.

Energy

Jim is not willing to catch a falling knife in the oil space (USO). He has too few fingers as it is. It has become too difficult to trade, as the algorithms are now in charge, and a lot of gap moves take place in the overnight markets. Don?t bother with fundamentals as they are irrelevant. No one really knows where the bottom in oil is.

Agriculturals

Jim is friendly to the ags (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), but only on sudden pullbacks. However, there are no new immediate signals here. So he is just going to wait. The next directional guidance will come with the big USDA report at the end of January. The ags are further clouded by a murky international picture, with the collapse of the Russian ruble allowing the rogue nation to undercut prices on the international market.

Volatility

Volatility (VIX), (VXX) is probably going to peak out her soon in the $23-$25 range. The next week or so will tell for sure. A lot hangs on Friday?s December nonfarm payroll report. Every trader out there remembers that the last three visits to this level were all great shorts. However, the next bottom will be higher, probably around the $16 handle.

If you are not already getting Jim?s dynamite Mad Day Trader service, please get yourself the unfair advantage you deserve. Just email Nancy in customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and ask for the $1,500 a year upgrade to your existing Global Trading Dispatch service.

 

Volatility WeeklyVolatility Weekly

 

Volatility Monthly (2)Volatility Monthly

 

Euro to the DollarEuro to the Dollar

 

PCLN 1-7-15

F 1-7-15

Jim Parker

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Volatility-Weekly.jpg 325 579 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-08 09:44:082015-01-08 09:44:08Mad Day Trader Jim Parker?s Q1, 2015 Views
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 7, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 7, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A VERY WESTERN CHRISTMAS),
(THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS),
(USO), (TSLA), (GE),
(TESTIMONIAL)

United States Oil ETF (USO)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
General Electric Company (GE)

 

?

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Very Western Christmas

Diary, Newsletter

This year I had the pleasure of spending a nostalgic Christmas day in Virginia City, Nevada, now a national historic monument.

The old western town is the home of the famed Comstock load, once the world?s largest silver deposit, discovered in 1859. The ore mined here played a major role in building San Francisco into an important city, and financed the Union?s victory in the Civil War.

It was here that Mark Twain landed his first job as a writer for the town?s first newspaper, the Territorial Enterprise, after failing to find any silver of his own. I have read his complete works (Adventures of Tom Sawyer, The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, Innocents Abroad, etc.), and owe much to the legendary humorist for my own oddball, ironic sense of humor.

Walking the creaky boardwalk, one admires the many sagging brick, false front buildings, their rusted cast iron shutters nearly falling off their hinges. You almost expect to run into the former riverboat captain around the next corner. Where bordellos, saloons, and gambling dens once flourished, one now finds T-shirt purveyors, gem merchants, candy shops, and period antique stores.

You older folks will remember Virginia City as a central location in Bonanza, the most popular American TV series of the 1960?s. Every week, the determined, but moral, Cartwright family prevailed over a never ending assortment of villains and the formidable challenges of living in an untamed West. Visitors today still flock to the site of their imaginary ranch, the Ponderosa, named for a local pine tree.

The site is still littered with the detritus of the mid 19th century mining boom, preserved in an eternally arid desert. Wander aimlessly at your own peril. Abandoned mining shafts are everywhere, marked, or not.

I first came here as a kid during the early 1960?s, eagerly collecting old bottles turned blue by a scorching sun, as well as a shoebox full of Indian arrowheads.

I understand that this sort of thing is now illegal. This time, I satisfied myself with throwing a few 100 pound chunks of colorful basalt into the back of the truck to decorate my cactus garden at home.

The highlight of the day was a trip on the Candy Cane Express, operated by the old Virginia and Truckee Railroad. We chugged an hour out into the barren desert mountains, entertained by an assortment of cider bearing elves, singing Christmas carols, and blowing the steam whistle at every opportunity.

The weather was blustery, with intermittent snow flurries. A heard of mustangs, or wild horses, ran along side the tracks, thrilling the children more than Santa Claus, and enthralling the vacationing European photographers.

The federal Bureau of Land Management estimates there are 200,000 of these beasts still roaming free in the western wilderness (down from 2 million 100 years ago). You can adopt one with the payment of a $100 fee, if you promise not to eat it.
On our return, we repaired to the Bucket of Blood saloon for some complimentary sarsaparillas, an ancient predecessor of Coca Cola, and some rollicking country western music from the Comstock Cowboys.

There we toasted a Merry Christmas to all.

 

Candy Cane Express

Bucket of Blood Saloon

Ponderosa Map

MustangsMustangs Taking a Break

 

Country Western Band

John Thomas

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Dear Jim Parker,

I cannot thank you enough for the service that you are providing. ?In my case, I can honestly say that you are accomplishing your goals of enabling me to trade profitably. ?

I wish you a well-earned rest and the best of joy with your family and friends during this season. ??

Rene Y.
Retired Canadian Farmer

 

Jim Parker

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 7, 2015 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day
David Tepper

?2015 is setting up to be a repeat of 1999,? the year when NASDAQ delivered a nonstop melt up, rocketing by a stunning 85%, said my friend and hedge fund legend, David Tepper.

David Tepper

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 6, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 6, 2015
Fiat Lux

2015 Annual Asset Class Review

FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Featured Trades:
(SPX), (QQQ), (XLF), (XLE), (XLI), (XLY), (EEM), (SCTY), (TAN),
(TLT), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (PCY), (MUB), (HCP)
(FXE), (EUO), (FXC), (FXA), (YCS), (FXY), (CYB)
(FCX), (VALE), (MOO), (DBA), (MOS), (MON), (AGU), (POT), (PHO), (FIW), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (JJG)
(DIG), (RIG), (USO), (DUG), (UNG), (OXY), (X)
(GLD), (DGP), (SLV), (PPTL), (PALL)
(ITB)

S&P 500 Index (SPX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
PowerShares Fundamental High Yld Corp Bd (PHB)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
HCP, Inc. (HCP)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
Vale S.A. (VALE)
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Monsanto Company (MON)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG)
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
United States Oil (USO)
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
United States Steel Corp. (X)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Premium Energy Corp. (PPTL)
ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL)
iShares US Home Construction (ITB)

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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