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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 2, 2014

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
September 2, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TACKLING THE INFLATION MYTH),
(AAPL), (GOOG), (TWTR), (FB),
(THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES)

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-02 01:05:542014-09-02 01:05:54September 2, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 1, 2014

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
September 1, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SALUTING THE ?OLD BREED?)
(WHERE THE ECONOMIST ?BIG MAC? INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE), (MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB)
(TESTIMONIAL)

McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-01 01:06:532014-09-01 01:06:53September 1, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Saluting the ?Old Breed?

Diary, Evening VIP, Newsletter

It was with a mixture of nostalgia and awe that I attended the reunion luncheon celebrating the 72nd anniversary of America?s invasion of Guadalcanal. The event was hosted by my former division commander in Desert Storm, Major General Mike Myatt, at the Marines Memorial Association in San Francisco.

I was there to represent the family. My Uncle, Colonel Mitchell Paige, won the first Congressional Medal of Honor of WWII at Guadalcanal; single handedly wiping out 2,000 attacking Japanese in one night with his 30 caliber Brown machine gun (click here for ?Tribute to a True Veteran?).

My dad was there too, as a driver of a Steward light tank. My grandfather served in WWI, and historians tell me that I have a string of military heroes behind me that stretches all the way back to Valley Forge, where the first John Thomas served on George Washington?s staff.

I got plenty of dust under my fingernails myself, but lost a disc in my back from a plane crash, flying support missions for the First Marine Division in the Persian Gulf. Today I have three nephews serving in the Middle East in harm?s way, all in intelligence. So it is safe to say that my family has paid its dues in the defense of our country, and then some.

General Myatt delivered a lecture outlining the desperation and cruel arithmetic of the conflict. The Marines went in with virtually no intelligence and the few primitive maps they could scavenge from National Geographic Magazine against a Japanese army that until then had been undefeated. The US lost 7,000 men, 29 ships, and 600 aircraft. The Japanese lost 30,000 men, 37 ships, and many of their experienced pilots.

Japan never recovered from the blow, and played defense for the rest of the war. It was the single most important battle of the Pacific war. Afterwards, the Marines were sent to Melbourne, Australia for rest, wearing rags, often barefoot, but with weapons in perfect operating condition.

Whenever I give a strategy luncheon in that fair city, I never fail to thank my guests for the hospitality they once extended to my family. Today, a small case at the Melbourne Cricket Ground pays tribute to their sacrifice.

The youngest living Guadalcanal veteran today is 87, and eight of the elderly warriors made it to the reunion. Got to love that Marine health care plan! One 95 year old flew his own plane up from Los Angeles. Once a Marine, always a Marine.

I dined at a table with a van load of veterans from the California Veterans Hospital in Yountville, Napa Valley (click here if you want to, they need you).

One grizzled old sergeant told me that if a friend went missing at night, he was often found tied to a palm tree the next day, tortured to death.? Another time, a surrendering Japanese pulled a hand grenade out of his loincloth and threw it into a sympathetic, but gullible squad, with deadly results. Despite these atrocities, he respected the Japanese today as humble, respectful, and hard working. You don?t find these sentiments among the veterans of other nations at all.

Time has taken a toll on these aging vets more than the enemy ever could. Much of the conversation revolved around the daily aches and pains of living in your late eighties. Pulling out genuine anecdotes was difficult, often resulting in a canned memory dredged from a book or TV documentary produced decades after the event. Some may have been worried that if they did open the door to the past, they would dread what they found.

For a riveting account of the historic battle, please read ?The Pacific? by For a riveting account of the historic battle, please read ?The Pacific? by Hugh Ambrose.? You can purchase the book at Amazon by?clicking here. My uncle Mitch cooperated with Ambrose in the research for the book, which was the basis for the recently released and incredibly realistic HBO series of the same name.

 

The Pacific by Hugh Ambrose

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/The-Pacific-by-Hugh-Ambrose.jpg 429 290 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-01 01:05:542014-09-01 01:05:54Saluting the ?Old Breed?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 29, 2014

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
August 29, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAKING HAY WITH THE EAGLE FORD SHALE),
(USO), (UNG), (XOM), (CVX), (LNG), (CHK), (HAL)
(THE PASSING OF A GREAT MAN)

United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK)
Halliburton Company (HAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-29 01:05:042014-08-29 01:05:04August 29, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Making Hay in the Eagle Ford Shale

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

Sell the shovels to the gold miners. That was the lesson of the 1849 California gold rush.

How many individual gold miners can you name today? How about none, unless you are an expert on the obscure street names of San Francisco.

And the companies that sold supplies and services to them? Try Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Union Pacific (UNP), and Levi Strauss. Some 165 years later, they not only survive, they thrive. This is the lesson that I remind readers of when they flock to me for advice on where to make money in the current natural gas fracking boom (UNG), (USO).

They do so because I was a pioneer in this revolutionary technology 15 years ago, driving down the endless washboard roads of the Barnet Shale in West Texas to lock up leases on depleted fields for pennies on the dollar. It turns out that there was still more gas and oil down there than had ever been extracted from the original wells. Kaching!

The problem, as it always is in radical new emerging technologies, is that it is tough for the outsider to participate. Fracking still only accounts for a tiny share of the profits of majors like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

The small plays have already risen tenfold, such as my recommendation for Cheniere Energy (LNG) (click here to read ?Revisiting Cheniere Energy (LNG)?). Much of the rest is privately held and closed to outside investors.
The last thing in the world you want to do is go out and buy natural gas itself. Why buy a commodity just when the supply is massively ramping up? So, how is the ordinary guy to get in on the ground floor of this modern day bonanza?

The other day I got a call from one of my old drilling buddies, who has since moved on to the Eagle Ford Shale in East Texas. You know, the one with the oil permanently stuck under his fingernails and a deeply tanned face that looks like an old saddle?

He said that the industry is facing a major problem in that the new fields are often in the middle of nowhere, lacking even the most basic infrastructure. Housing is non-existent and workers in scarce supply. Civilization in Texas, like the towns, is found around the geology of traditional oil, usually under giant underground salt domes. Oil shale is a different story.

Their choice now is to tell workers to bring their own recreational vehicles to live in the boondocks, or endure four-hour daily commutes. When you are paying your blue-collar workers $200,000 a year, you don?t want them spending half of their day on a bus listening to an iPod, watching videos, or staring blankly out at the desolate landscape. Obviously, families don?t fit anywhere in this picture.

My friend told me about a company called InVision Housing Solutions Management LLC that had come up with a great means for solving this vexing problem, carving out a highly lucrative niche for themselves. It is in the business of building and leasing out temporary housing for oil workers.

These are not the dreaded, ticky tacky mobile home parks of old, but high-end affairs, complete with pleasant grounds, high-end finishes, and generous common amenities. When workers are earning well into triple digits, they expect better accommodations.

Their primary customers are leading companies you all know and love, like Chesapeake (CHK) and Halliburton (HAL), which are opening up new oil and gas fields as fast as they can get the permits. These firms are more than happy to pay lease rates of $100 a day or more, or what you might expect to pay for a mid level hotel in a major city.

Then my friend really got my attention. He said that InVision?s existing facility, the ?Double C Resort,? was getting occupancy rates of 75% or more, usually on long-term leases, something a major hotel chain would kill for. This was enabling it to earn net returns on its investment for outside investors up to an eye popping 20% a year, or better.

The story gets better. The project is scalable. The Double C Resort is just one of 20 locations in Texas where the supply/demand dynamics favor similar developments. Beyond that, it could expand nationally to service fields as far away as North Dakota and California.

InVision can build a town with 300 units for $15 million, including the roads, utilities, sewers, Wi-Fi, etc. Operational expenses are minimal, so after the initial build out you are left with a big cash flow machine on your hands. You do the math.

What happens when the new fields get fully developed? For a start, these new natural gas fields are much larger than people realize. Once the primary gas pocket at 5,000 feet is emptied, there are more at 7,000, 9,000, 11,000, 13,000, 15,000 feet and more.

The same fields will get drilled over and over again for years to come. When they say that a century?s worth of cheap energy has just been discovered, they?re not kidding.

There will also always be continuing demand for housing to service the new infrastructure, such as the pipelines. After that, the housing is so portable that it can simply be placed on a flatbed trailer and moved elsewhere.

InVision is not a public company, but is accepting outside investors with a minimum $50,000 stake. Besides the generous cash flow, if the company ever does go public at some point in the future, you would then get the earnings multiple bump up in the value of your asset.

To get more information about InVision Housing Solutions Management LLC please, visit their website at http://invisionhousing.com . You can also contact, Tom Tamrack, directly at info@invisionhousing.com, or call him at 888-516-2221.

 

HousePerhaps an Investment Opportunity?

 

Shale

United States

Eagle Ford Shale Play

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/House.jpg 321 463 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-29 01:04:312014-08-29 01:04:31Making Hay in the Eagle Ford Shale
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 28, 2014

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
August 28, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TAKING A LOOK AT SOLAR CITY),
(SCTY), (TSLA), (PCG)
(SAN FRANCISCO?S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT)

SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
PG&E Corporation (PCG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-28 09:36:362014-08-28 09:36:36August 28, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 27, 2014

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
August 27, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHAT TO DO ABOUT APPLE?), (AAPL),
(THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ)

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-27 01:05:392014-08-27 01:05:39August 27, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

?Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.? I?m sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. I firmly believe that a short position in the yen should be at the core of any hedged portfolio for the next decade.

To remind you why you hate the currency of the land of the rising sun, I?ll refresh your memory with this short list:

* With the world?s structurally weakest major economy, Japan is certain to be the last country to raise interest rates. Interest rate differentials are the greatest driver of foreign exchange rates.
* This is inciting big hedge funds to borrow yen and sell it to finance longs in every other corner of the financial markets.
* Japan has the world?s worst demographic outlook that assures its problems will only get worse. They?re not making enough Japanese any more.
* The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is prompting investors to scan the horizon for the next troubled country. With gross debt well over a nosebleed 240% of GDP, or 120% when you net out inter agency crossholdings, Japan is at the top of the list.
* The Japanese long bond market, with a yield of only 1%, is a disaster waiting to happen.
* You have two willing co-conspirators in this trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, who will move Mount Fuji if they must to get the yen down and bail out the country?s beleaguered exporters.

When the big turn inevitably comes, we?re going to ?110, then ?120, then ?150. That works out to a price of $200 for the (YCS), which last traded at $62. But it might take a few years to get there.

If you think this is extreme, let me remind you that when I first went to Japan in the early seventies, the yen was trading at ?305, and had just been revalued from the Peace Treaty Dodge line rate of ?360. To me the ?83 I see on my screen today is unbelievable. That would then give you a neat 17-year double top.

Japanese Lady-SadIt?s All Over For the Yen

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Japanese-Lady-Sad.jpg 254 250 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-27 01:03:422014-08-27 01:03:42The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 26, 2014

Diary, Newsletter

Global Market Comments
August 26, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(WHY I?M COVERING SOME EURO SHORTS),
(FXE), (EUO),
(THAT WAS SOME SHAKER!)

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-26 01:06:032014-08-26 01:06:03August 26, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

That was Some Shaker!

Diary, Newsletter

Wow! There is nothing like being tossed out of bed at 3:20 AM by a massive earthquake! It really gets the juices flowing. I was really praying that the wooden roof creaking and groaning above was not about to land on my head.

After hurriedly getting dressed, I grabbed a flashlight and ran downstairs to check the gas lines and water mains. So far, so good. Compliant with state law, my water heaters are strapped to the wall, so they were OK.

It looks like I escaped the biggest earthquake in Northern California in 25 years with a mere six foot long horizontal crack in the stucco on my home.

The earthquake was devastating for the wine industry, where owners today are mopping up the wine spilled from millions of smashed bottles. Some 200 buildings have been ?red tagged?, cited by city inspectors as unsafe for habitation.

Every road going into and out of Napa buckled, or was cut in half by giant cracks. Some unlucky drivers drove right into the buckles in the darkness, totaling their cars.

There were more than 90 water main breaks and 50 gas lines sheared, which meant that fire engines had insufficient water to fight fires. The unfortunate residents of one mobile home park saw their residences burn down almost immediately.

I spent the day next to my cell phone, waiting for notice of an emergency call up as a rescue pilot. When the ?big one? comes, I am set up to fly into devastated areas to transfer patients to other hospitals.

But the call fortunately never came. Napa?s Queen of the Valley Medical Center was able to handle the 200 injuries that arrived, mostly from flying glass.

We all knocked on wood that the damage had not been greater. If the earthquake had happened just eight hours later, the sidewalks packed with thousands of peak season tourists would have been showered with glass. Decades of retrofitting bridges at enormous expense paid off, as all passed inspection nicely.

One interesting wrinkle was that the University of California at Berkeley?s earthquake warning system worked, giving a ten second heads up, at least to those who were awake at 3:20 AM. Expect to hear a lot more about this in the future.

Many thanks for the emails I received from around the world voicing concern for my safety. It takes more than a lousy 6.0 earthquake to do in this trader in.

We are all keeping our fingers crossed that this is not the prelude to a much bigger quake, which sometimes happens.

Hey, why have waves suddenly appeared in my coffee cup...?

Crack in StuccoThe Price of Living in the Golden State

Napa Valley Earthquake 8-2014

Broken Wine Bottles

Wine Casks Overturned

Earthquake - Store

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Napa-Valley-Earthquake-8-2014.jpg 264 447 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-26 01:03:532014-08-26 01:03:53That was Some Shaker!
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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