(THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH), (WHY I?M KEEPING MY BOND SHORTS), (TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (JNK), (HYG), (LINE), (ITB), (TESTIMONIAL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
iShares US Home Construction (ITB)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-14 01:06:242014-01-14 01:06:24January 14, 2014
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, February 20, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I also hope to provide some insight into America?s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $209.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a downtown hotel the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Melbourne-AU.jpg331469Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-14 01:05:502014-01-14 01:05:50Thursday, February 20 Melbourne, Australia Lunch Invitation
There are only 5 trading days left until the equity option expiration on January 17. My short dated January expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all of these positions quickly turning profitable. During the two-week December holidays when markets fell asleep, time decay assured that we made money almost every day, and closed us on the year at an all time high.
As a result, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s model trade portfolio has a ton of remaining positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the full benefit.
I am cautious about automatically rolling positions into February and March, as I have done for the last several months, because markets are all vastly over expended. This is my way of cutting back risk at interim market tops.
I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go.
The options traded on US exchanges and referred to in my Trade Alerts are American style, meaning that they can be exercised at any time by the owner. This is in contrast to European style options, which can only be exercised on the expiration day.
The call option spreads that I have been recommending for the past year are composed of a deep out-of-the-money long strike price plus a short portion at a near money strike price.
When stocks have high dividends, there is a chance that the near money option you are short gets exercised against you by the owner. This requires you to deliver the stock equivalent of the option you are short, plus any quarterly dividends that are due. Don?t worry, because your long position perfectly hedges you against this possibility.
You usually get notice of this assignment in an email after the close. You then need to email or call your broker back immediately informing him that you want to exercise your remaining long option position to meet your assigned short position.
This is a gift, as it means that you can realize the entire maximum theoretical profit of the position without having to take the risk of running it all the way into expiration. You can either keep the cash, or pile on another sort dated option spread position and make even more money.
This should completely close out your position and leave you with a nice profit. This is not an automatic process and requires action on your part!
Assignments are made on a random basis by an exchange computer, and can happen any day. Exercise means the owner of the option that you are short completely loses all of the premium on his call.
Dividends have to be pretty high to make such a move economic, usually at least over 3% on an annual rate. But these days, markets are so efficient that traders, or their machines, will exercise options for a single penny profit.
Surprise assignments create a risk for option spread owners in a couple of ways. If you don?t check your email every day after the close, you might not be aware that you have been assigned. Alternatively, such emails sometimes get lost, or hung up in local servers or spam filters, which occasionally happens to readers of my own letter.
Then, you are left with the long side deep out-of-the-money call alone, which will have a substantially higher margin requirement. This is equivalent to going outright long the stock in large size.
This is a totally unhedged position now, and suddenly, you are playing a totally different game. If the stock then rises, you could be in for a windfall profit. But if it falls, you could take a big hit. Better to completely avoid this situation at all cost and not take the chance. You are probably not set up to do this type of trading.
If you don?t have the cash in your account to cover this, you could get a margin call. If you ignore this call as well, your broker will close out your position at market without your permission.
It could produce some disconcerting communications from your broker. They generally hate issuing margin calls, and could well close your account if it is too small to bother with, as they create regulatory issues.
In order to get belt and braces coverage on this issue, it is best to call your broker and find out exactly what are their assignment policies and procedures. Believe it or not, some are still in the Stone Age, and have yet to automate the assignment process or give notice by email. An ounce of prevention could be worth a pound of cure here. You can?t believe how irresponsible some of these people can be.
Consider all this a cost of doing business, or a frictional execution cost. In-the-money options are still a great strategy. But you should be aware of all the ins and outs to get the most benefit.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-10 01:03:082014-01-10 01:03:08A Special Note on Exercised January Options
Featured Trade: (FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH), (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CLOSES 2013 WITH 67.45% PROFIT), (AAPL), (XLE), (XLF), (FXY), (TLT), (SFTBY), (GILD) (TESTIMONIAL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-09 09:07:252014-01-09 09:07:25January 9, 2014
The performance of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert Service finished 2013 with a total return for followers of 67.45%.
Including both open and closed trades, 75 out of the 90 Trade Alerts were profitable, a success rate of 83%. The final month of December alone came in at an eye popping 11.45%.
The three-year return is an eye popping 122.5%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 35%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 39.7%.
This has been the best profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched three years ago. It all is a matter of the harder I work, the luckier I get.
The hot streak continues. So far in January, we are up a further 3.58% in a down market. It seems like I can do no wrong, but am avoiding walking under ladders, breaking mirrors, and trading on Friday the 13th.
I held on to every risk on position during the two-week December correction, fully expecting the pause to become the springboard for a new run to all time highs by year-end. That is exactly what happened in the wake of the Federal Reserve?s decision to taper its quantitative easing program by only $10 billion a month, mere sofa change given the size of our bond market.
That sent off to the races my long positions in the Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF), and the S&P 500 (SPY). I also piled into new longs in Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK). To spice things up, I also bought some Gilead Sciences (GILD), seeking to cash in on the windfall profits generated by Obamacare.
Only the Internet giant Softbank (SFTBY) has been boring, persistently hanging around my costs price. I cashed in two of my three short positions in the Japanese yen (FXY), which broke to new multiyear lows. I took profits on my shorts in the Treasury bond market (TLT), which crashed, then quickly jumped back in on the short side on the next rally.
This is how the pros do it, and you can too, if you wish.
Carving out the 2013 trades alone, 77 out of 92 have made money, a success rate of 83%. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, has also been coining it. Since April, his own performance numbers have just come back from the auditors, revealing that he is up a staggering 300%.
The coming winter promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy. Please join me on the gravy train. You will never get a better chance than this to make money for your personal account.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars.? Upgrade to Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO and you will also receive Jim Parker?s Mad Day Trader service.
To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
Burma 1974 Taking on All Comers
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/TA-Performance.jpg667492Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-09 09:05:132014-01-09 09:05:13Mad Hedge Fund Trader Closes 2013 With 67.45% Profit
Featured Trade: (TEN TIPS FOR SURVIVING A DAY OFF WITH ME), (TESTIMONIAL), (US HEADED TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE), (USO), (UNG), (KOL), (XOM), (OXY)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-08 01:06:592014-01-08 01:06:59January 8, 2014
My inbox was clogged with responses to my ?Golden Age? for the 2020?s piece, particularly my forecast that the US was moving towards complete energy independence. This will be the most important change to the global economy for the next 20 years. So I shall go into more depth.
The energy research house, Raymond James, put out an estimate this morning that domestic American oil production (USO) would rise from 5.6 million barrels a day to 9.1 million by 2015. That means its share of total consumption will leap from 28% to 46% of our total 20 million barrels a day habit. These are game changing numbers.
Names like the Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and the Bakken Shale, once obscure references on geological maps, are now a major force in the country?s energy picture. Ten years ago North Dakota was suffering from depopulation. Now, itinerate oil workers must brave -40 degree winter temperatures in their recreational vehicles pursuing their $150,000 a year jobs.
The value of this extra 3.5 million barrels/day works out to $121 billion a year at current prices (3.5 million X 365 X $95). That will drop America?s trade deficit by nearly 25% over the next three years, and almost wipe out our current account deficit. Needless to say, this is a hugely dollar positive development.
This 3.5 million barrels will also offset much of the growth in China?s oil demand for the next three years. Fewer oil exports to the US also vastly expand the standby production capacity of Saudi Arabia.
If you want proof of the impact this will have on the economy, look no further that the coal (KOL), which has been falling in a rising market. Power plant conversion from coal to natural gas (UNG) is accelerating at a dramatic pace. That leaves China as the remaining buyer, and their economy is slowing.
It all makes the current price of oil at $95 look a little rich. As with the last oil spike three years ago, this one is occurring in the face of a supply glut. Cushing, Oklahoma is awash in Texas tea, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stashed away in salt domes in Texas and Louisiana is at its maximum capacity of 727 barrels. It is concerns about war with Syria and Iran, fanned by elections in both countries that took prices to $112 in the fall.
My oil industry friends tell me this fear premium has added $30-$40 to the price of crude. This is why I have been advising readers to sell short oil price spikes to $110. The current run up isn?t going to take us to the $150 high that we saw in the last cycle. It is also why I am keeping oil companies with major onshore domestic assets, like Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY), in my long term model portfolio.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/US-Canada-Border-Map.jpg371492Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-08 01:03:502014-01-08 01:03:50US Headed Towards Energy Independence
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
PowerShares Fundamental High Yld Corp Bd (PHB)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
HCP, Inc. (HCP)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
Vale S.A. (VALE)
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Monsanto Company (MON)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG)
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
United States Oil (USO)
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
United States Steel Corp. (X)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Premium Energy Corp. (PPTL)
ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL)
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-07 01:03:092014-01-07 01:03:09January 7, 2014
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.