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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Diary, Newsletter

I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming.

Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end of the spectrum, where migrant workers from the provinces are earning up to 40% more than a year ago. Wage settlements of 20% or more for trained workers are common. One factory that gave staff only a 10% increase saw many of them fail to return after the recent Chinese lunar New Year.

Of course China's blistering 8% GDP growth is the cause, which has pushed inflation well beyond the government's 4% target. So the cost of living in the Middle Kingdom is rising dramatically. The problem has been particularly severe with imported commodities, such as in food. Hence, the increased demands.

This is important for the rest of us because low wages have been the cornerstone of the Chinese economic miracle. In just the last decade, average monthly Chinese wages have climbed from the bottom rung to the middle tier. That seriously erodes the country's cost advantage, which has gained it such enormous shares in foreign markets, like the US. Take away the country's price advantages, and demand will wither, slowing growth globally.

What will they be demanding next? Collective bargaining rights? In the meantime, keep checking those Craig's List entries for Shanghai.

Average Monthly Salary

$3,099 Yokohama, Japan
$1,220 Seoul, South Korea
$888 Taipei, Taiwan
$235 Shenzhen, China
$148 Jakarta, Indonesia
$100 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
$47 Dhaka, Bangladesh

Chinese Men$1.25 an Hour? You Must Be Joking!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Chinese-Men.jpg 326 221 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-17 01:05:542013-12-17 01:05:54Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Check Out Obama?s Latest Stimulus Package

Diary, Newsletter

Was there is no limit to how far President Obama was willing to go to stimulate the economy and reassure his election? So I had to be amused when a friend sent me a link to his proposal. Warning: the source is a college humor website, so I would take it with so many grains of salt. For a good laugh, click here at
http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6710602/obamas-young-adult-novel-plan .

Fellow writers should be prepared for the worst. The economy will not be the only thing stimulated.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Obama-1.jpg 368 423 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-17 01:04:552013-12-17 01:04:55Check Out Obama?s Latest Stimulus Package
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 16, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 16, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(REPORT FROM THE FROZEN WASTELANDS OF THE WEST)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-16 01:04:282013-12-16 01:04:28December 16, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 13, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 13, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(MY MARKET TAKE FOR THE REST OF 2013),
(DOUBLING UP ON SOFTBANK), (SFTBY)
(SPY), (XLF), (TLT), (FXY), (SFTBY), (AAPL),
(TESTIMONIAL)

SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-13 01:07:002013-12-13 01:07:00December 13, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 12, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 12, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(IS THIS THE BIG TRADE OF 2014?),
(GLD), (SLV), ($SSEC), (EEM), (FXI),
(JJC), (DBA), (CORN), (CU), (USO), (KOL),
(A CHRISTMAS DONATION FOR THE WORTHIEST OF CAUSES)

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
United States Oil (USO)
Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-12 08:15:452013-12-12 08:15:45December 12, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Christmas Donation for the Worthiest of Causes

Diary, Newsletter

I follow a broad range of unconventional, but highly useful leading economic indicators that gives me a decisive edge when predicting the future direction of global financial markets. One of them has started flashing a warning sign.

I fund an orphanage in remote Zhanjiang, in China?s southern Guangdong province, near Hainan Island called The Zhanjiang Kids Organization that catches the kids who missed out on China?s economic miracle.

Lacking America?s social safety net, child abandonment in the Middle Kingdom usually leads to a cruel death through malnutrition or disease at the few primitive public institutions that exist. With China?s one child policy now 30 years old, most families prefer their sole heir to be a boy, which means that girls account for the vast majority of orphan children.

Recently, there has been an upsurge of children dropped off at the orphanage and a sudden increase in the age of the kids. Twelve-year-old boys are being dumped because they cannot be fed.

For a Chinese family to give up a boy this close to working age is truly an act of desperation. As a trader, this is all proof to me that the Chinese economy is slowing faster than people realize, and that the global economy will take a deeper dip this summer.

I usually avoid organized charities like the plague. The great majority are scams where 95% of the funds raised go to ?administrative costs? that usually end up in someone?s personal bank account. As we all know, the corruption in China is rampant.

The Zhanjiang Kids Organization is a rare exception. I know the organizers personally, who originally got involved by adopting a couple of girls there, and they are saints. They carefully oversee the spending of every single dollar, assuring that it gets spent for its intended purposes.

Instead of doling out cash to local organizations, which often gets lost, as other organizations do, they undertake physical delivery of desperately needed food, books, and medical supplies. They also organize trips for volunteer pediatricians, educators, and administrators from the US.

As a result of my spring fund raising effort, I am told that the administrators were able to pay for a pediatrician and a dentist to fly in from the US. Kids were also given new toys. Initially, some didn?t know what to do with these, as they had never seen toys before. We take things like blocks, puzzles, and picture books for granted. Imagine what goes through a five year olds mind when he or she sees one for the first time.

Yes, I know that I am a hardened old ex-Marine combat veteran and am driven by the harsh reality of numbers, and not emotion. But when I hear stories like these, I melt. I know a lot of you have made a bundle following my advice this year, with some up as much as 500%.

If you made $1 million, please donate $1,000. If you clocked $100,000, that should be worth a $100 gift. This is a rare example where $1 worth of generosity creates $1,000 worth of good. Talk about bang per buck!

To learn more about The Zhanjiang Kids Organization, please visit their website http://www.zhanjiangkids.org/. There, you can contribute directly through your PayPal account or credit card. If you have any further questions about this fine organization, please contact director Susan Doshier directly at susandoshier@gmail.com .

Checks should be made payable to the ?Zhanjiang Kids Organization? and sent to Zhanjiang Kids Organization, c/o Susan Doshier, 2 Abbey Woods Lane, Dallas TX 75248, USA. Print out a hard copy of your receipt. This organization is set up as a US 501 (3) (c), so all contributions are fully deductible on the 2012 Form 1040, schedule ?A?. There is no reason why Uncle Sam shouldn?t pick up one third of the tab.

Act in your own self-interest. You may be working for one of these orphans someday. If you don?t, your kids will.

Orphans

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-12 08:10:402013-12-12 08:10:40A Christmas Donation for the Worthiest of Causes
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 11, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 11, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE BIPOLAR ECONOMY),
(SAY GOODBYE TO YOUR FAVORITE TEACHER),
(RAILROADS ARE BREAKING OUT ALL OVER),
(UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (ACI)

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
Arch Coal Inc. (ACI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-11 01:06:312013-12-11 01:06:31December 11, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Bipolar Economy

Diary, Newsletter

Corporate earnings are up big! Great! Buy! No wait! The economy is going down the toilet! Sell! Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell! Help! Anyone would be forgiven for thinking that the stock market has become bipolar. There is, in fact, an explanation for this madness. According to the Commerce Department?s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the answer is that corporate profits accounts for only a small part of the economy. Using the income method of calculating GDP, corporate profits account for only 15% of the reported GDP figure. The remaining components are doing poorly, or are too small to have much of an impact. Wages and salaries are in a three decade long decline. Interest and investment income is falling, because of the low level of interest rates and the collapse of the housing market. Farm incomes are up, but are a small proportion of the total. Income from non-farm unincorporated business, mostly small business, is unimpressive. It gets more complicated than that. A disproportionate share of corporate profits are being earned overseas. So multinationals with a big foreign presence, like Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Caterpillar (CAT), and IBM (IBM), have the most rapidly growing profits and pay the least amount in taxes. They really get to have their cake, and eat it too. Many of their business activities are contributing to foreign GDP?s, like China?s, much more than they are here. Those with large domestic businesses, like retailers, earn far less, but pay more in tax, as they lack the offshore entities in which to park profits. The message here is to not put all your faith in the headlines, but to look at the numbers behind the numbers. Those who bought in anticipation of good corporate profits last month, got those earnings, and then got slaughtered in the marketplace. Buyer beware. APL 12-10-13 CAT 12-10-13

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Caveat-Emptor.jpg 331 498 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-11 01:05:332013-12-11 01:05:33The Bipolar Economy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Say Goodbye to Your Favorite Teacher

Diary, Newsletter

Don?t bother taking an apple to school to give your favorite teacher, unless you want to leave it in front of a machine. The schoolteacher is about to join the sorry ranks of the service station attendant, the elevator operator, and the telephone operators whose professions have been rendered useless by technology.

The next big social trend in this country will be to replace teachers with computers. It is being forced by the financial crisis afflicting states and municipalities, which are facing red ink as far as the eye can see. From a fiscal point of view, of the 50 US states, we really have 30 Portugals, 10 Italys, 10 Irelands, 5 Greeces, and 5 Spains.

The painful cost cutting, layoffs, and downsizing that has swept the corporate area for the past 30 years is now being jammed down the throat of the public sector, the last refuge of slothful management and indifferent employees. Some 60% of high school students are already exposed to online educational programs, which enable teachers to handle far larger class sizes than the 40 students now common in California.

It makes it far easier to impose pay for productivity incentives on teachers, like linking teacher pay to student test scores, as a performance review is only a few mouse clicks away. These programs also qualify for government funding programs, like ?Race to the Top.? Costly textbooks can be dispensed with.

The alternative is to bump classroom sizes up to 80, or close down schools altogether. State deficits are so enormous that I can see public schools shutting down, privatizing their sports programs, and sending everyone home with a laptop. The cost savings would be huge. No more pep rallies, prom nights, or hanging around your girlfriend?s locker. Of course, our kids may turn out a little different, but they appear to be at the bottom of our current list of priorities.

Teacher The Old School Marm Will Be Sorely Missed

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Teacher.jpg 355 354 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-11 01:04:222013-12-11 01:04:22Say Goodbye to Your Favorite Teacher
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 10, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 10, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(GOTTA LOVE THAT NOVEMBER NONFARM PAYROLL),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER PROFIT SPURTS TO 59%),
(SPY), (SFTBY), (AAPL), (TLT), (FXY)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
SoftBank Corp. (SFTBY)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-12-10 01:05:232013-12-10 01:05:23December 10, 2013
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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