Diary Archives

Join the ?Invest Like a Monster? San Francisco Trading Conference

I am pleased to announce that I will be participating in the Invest Like a Monster Trading Conference in San Francisco during October 25-26. The two-day event brings together experts from across the financial landscape who will improve your understanding of markets by a quantum leap and measurably boost your own personal trading performance.

Tickets are available for a bargain $399. If you buy the premium $499 package you will be invited to the Friday 6:00 pm VIP cocktail reception, where you will meet luminaries from the trading world, such as Trademonster?s Jon and Pete Najarian, Guy Adami, Jeff Mackey, and of course, myself, John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All in all, it is great value for the money, and I?ll personally throw in a ride on the City by the Bay?s storied cable cars for free.

Jon Najarian is the founder of OptionMonster, which offers clients a series of custom crafted computer algorithms that give a crucial edge when trading the market. Called Heat Seeker ?, it monitors no less than 180,000 trades a second to give an early warning of large trades that are about to hit the stock, options, and futures markets.

To give you an idea of how much data this is, think of downloading the entire contents of the Library of Congress, about 20 terabytes of data, every 30 minutes. His firm maintains a 10 gigabyte per second conduit that transfers data at 6,000 times the speed of a T-1 line, the fastest such pipe in the civilian world. Jon?s team then distills this ocean of data on his website into the top movers of the day. ?As with the NFL,? says Jon, ?you can?t defend against speed.?

The system catches big hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds shifting large positions, giving subscribers a peek at the bullish or bearish tilt of the market. It also offers accurate predictions of imminent moves in single stock and index volatility.

Jon started his career as a linebacker for the Chicago Bears, and I can personally attest that he still has a handshake that?s like a steel vice grip. Maybe it was his brute strength that enabled him to work as a pit trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange for 22 years, where he was known by his floor call letters of ?DRJ.? He formed Mercury Trading in 1989 and then sold it to the mega hedge fund, Citadel, in 2004.

Jon developed his patented algorithms for Heat Seeker? with his brother Pete, another NFL player (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings), who like Jon, is a regular face in the financial media.

In order to register for the conference, please click here. There you will find the conference agenda, bios of the speakers, and a picture of my own ugly mug. I look forward to seeing you there.

Cling! Cling!

Jon Najarian

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

Diary

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a year-to-date gain of 43.24%, a new all time high. Performance since inception 33 months ago soared to 98.29%. This pegs the average annualized return at 35.7%, putting me in the absolute top tier of all hedge fund managers.

These numbers come off the back of a blistering September month to date of up +5.66%. Some 72% of all Trade Alerts since the beginning have been profitable. Carving out the closed 2013 trades alone, 42 out of 51 have made money, a success rate of 82%. In addition, we are carrying six open trades, which are profitable. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.

This performance was only made possible by correctly calling the near term direction of stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, energy, precious metals and the agricultural products. This may sound easy, until you try it. Some retirement!

My big win this month has been my major short position in the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), which is probing new lows against the dollar as we speak. The Japan win on hosting the 2020 Olympics gave the beleaguered Japanese currency some extra downside momentum. The yen has already collapsed in the crosses, and a further major breakdown against the dollar is imminent.

We really coined it on a short position in the Euro (FXE), coming out near the bottom. A new position in copper producer, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), become immediately profitable, jumping some 5% after the Trade Alert went out. I jumped at the $60 selloff in Apple shares in the wake of their latest product launch, instantly, moving into the green with this holding as well. The same is true for my long in the Australian dollar (FXA).

Only my oil short left me with a hickey, which I stopped out of, thanks to the Syria gas attack. Still, if I had held it for only two more hours it would have made money when the Russian peace initiative for Syria was announced. Risk control is paramount if you want to swing for the fences. Welcome to show business.

The coming autumn promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. On the menu are the taper, a new Fed governor, a debt ceiling crisis, a possible war with Syria, and the death of the bull market in bonds. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy.

Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars, Global Trading Dispatch PRO adds Jim Parker?s Mad Day Trader service to the mix.

To subscribe, please go to my website: ?www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.

Some Retirement!

September 24, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 24, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APPLE?S BLOWOUT NUMBERS SEND BEARS SCAMPERING),
(AAPL), (QCOM), (CHL), (SSNLF), (MSFT), (GOOG),
(EXPIRATION OF MY YEN BEAR PUT SPREAD),
(MY PERSONAL LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR),
(NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS)

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (SSNLF)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Google Inc. (GOOG)

Expiration of my Yen Bear Put Spread

Diary, Newsletter

Add this one to the ?WIN? column.

I strapped on this position because I believed that the world was adding risk, expecting major bull moves, once it becomes clear that the multiple disasters now threatening the world don?t actually happen. The list includes war with Syria, the taper, the Bernanke replacement, the debt ceiling crisis, another sequester, yada, yada, yada.? A yen short is one of many ways to achieve this.

This is why US stocks refuse to sell off in any meaningful way. We are setting up for a great ?buy the rumor, sell the news? event. Remember when the first Gulf War started in 1991? Stocks drifted for six months in the run up, then soared once the bombs actually fell. We could be in for another one of those. That would take the yen and the euro to new lows for 2013.

Count on President Obama to draw out the Syria crisis for as long as possible. This gives the message of the coming military action the greatest political impact internationally. It also boosts his own political fortunes at home, leaving the Republicans drifting in the wind. Why be in a hurry to end it? They are now in the uncomfortable position of having to turn pacifist, after supporting Middle Eastern wars with a blank check for the last 11 years.

All of this worked out exactly as expected for our yen short, which is why it expired on Friday at its maximum value. The expiration print of $98.35 cleared our nearest strike of $103 by miles. This added a welcome $1,330 in profits to our $100,000 model trading portfolio for 2013.

On to the next one.

Kaching!

My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Diary, Newsletter

One of the joys of having small children is that you get to know the guy at the local plumbing supply shop really well. It?s amazing what will fit down a toilet these days.

He once told me that when Troll Dolls hit the market, every plumber in the country was guaranteed a job for life. When I went there yesterday I thought I?d pick up some leading economic indicators as well. After a deadly year, business is picking up a bit. Sure, it is still down from the onset of the Great Recession five years ago, but there is a definite improvement going on.

This was the Eureka moment! His comments confirm the sort of modest recovery I have been expecting. We aren?t going to zero anymore, but it is not exactly off to the races either. Throughout the nineties, a salesman at Circuit City (RIP) walked me through every generation of technology, and he was worth his weight in gold. All I had to do was buy a new TV from him every year, and they kept getting bigger and more expensive. I bought the second high definition TV sold in California, after George Lucas, who I used to run into at the local IHOP having breakfast with an aspiring young starlet. It was his casting couch.

Sometimes figuring out the direction of the economy is as simple as going down to the local butcher, baker, or candlestick maker and asking. They are on the front lines of economic activity, and they will see any changes months before those of us glued to computer screens. Make it your own unfair advantage, your own heads up in the marketplace. Just keep your eyes open and observe.

Asking George Lucas also helps.

A Troll Doll

Notice to Military Subscribers

Diary, Newsletter

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you cash out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from Southeast Asia four decades ago.

I have but one request. No more subscriptions with .mil addresses, please. The Defense Department, the CIA, the NSA, Homeland Security, and the FBI do not look kindly on newsletters entering the military network, even the investment kind. If you think civilian spam filters are tough, watch out for the military kind! And no, I promise that there are no coded secret messages embedded with the stock tips. ?BUY? really does mean ?BUY.?

If I did not know the higher ups at these agencies, as well as the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I might be bouncing off the walls in a cell at Guantanamo by now. It also helps that many of the mid-level officers at these organizations have made a fortune with their meager government retirement funds following my advice. All I can say is that if the Baghdad Stock Exchange ever become liquid, I?m going to own it.

Where would you guess the greatest concentration of readers The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is found? New York? Nope. London? Wrong. Chicago? Not even close. Try a ten-mile radius centered on Langley, Virginia, by a large margin. The funny thing is, half of the subscribing names coming in are Russian. I haven?t quite figured that one out yet.

So keep up the good work, and fight the good fight. But please, only subscribe to my letter with personal Gmail, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses, or with your spouse?s address. That way my life can become a lot more boring. Oh, and by the way, Langley, you?re behind on your bill. Please pay up, pronto, and I don?t want to hear whining about any damn budget cuts!

I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!

September 23, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 23, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(TAKE A LOOK AT OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM),
(OXY), ($WTIC), (USO),
(TESTIMONIAL)

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Light Crude Oil ($WTIC)
United States Oil (USO)

November 1 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $191.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Take a Look at Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Diary, Newsletter

I have kept oil companies in my long term model portfolio for many years now. But there are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can?t dance with all of them.

While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics class, which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country where I had spent the summer of 1968 caravanning among the Bedouins, fighting rebels and bandits, crawling out of the desert starved, lice ridden, and half dead.

I concluded in my paper that the North African country should immediately nationalize the oil industry, and raise prices from $3/barrel to $10 (USO).? I knew that Los Angeles based Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was interested in exploring for oil there, so I sent my paper to the company for review. They called the next day and invited me to their imposing downtown headquarters, then the tallest building in Los Angeles.

I was ushered into the office of Dr. Armand Hammer, one of the great independent oil moguls of the day, a larger than life figure who owned a spectacular impressionist art collection, and who confidently displayed a priceless Faberg? egg on his desk.

He said he was impressed with my paper, and then spent two hours grilling me. Why should oil prices go up? Who did I know there? What did I see? What was the state of their infrastructure? Roads? Bridges? Rail lines? Did I see any oil derricks? Did I see any Russians?

I told him everything I knew, including the two weeks spent in an Algiers jail for taking pictures in the wrong places. His parting words were to never take my eye off the oil industry, as it is the driver of everything else. I have followed that advice ever since.

When I went back to UCLA, I told a CIA friend of mine that I had just spent the afternoon with the eminent doctor (Marsha, call me!). She told me that he had been a close advisor of Vladimir Lenin after the Russian Revolution, had been a double agent for the Soviets ever since, that the FBI had known this all along, and was currently funneling illegal campaign donations to President Richard Nixon. Shocked, I kicked myself for going into an interview so ill prepared, and had missed a golden opportunity to ask some great questions. I never made that mistake again.

Some 40 years later, while trolling the markets for great buying opportunities, I stumbled across (OXY) once more (click here for their). (OXY) has a minimal offshore presence, nothing in deep water, and huge operations in the Middle East and South America. It was the first US oil company to go back into Libya when the sanctions were lifted in 2005.

(OXY?s) substantial California production is expected to leap to 45% to 200,000 barrels a day over the next four years. Its horizontal multistage fracturing technology will enable it to dominate California shale. It has raised its dividend for the eighth year in a row, to 2.90%, more than ten year Treasury bonds Need I say more?

The clear message that has come out of the BP oil spill is that onshore energy resources are now more valuable than offshore ones. A lead in fracking is a huge plus. I think (OXY) will continue to make money, no matter what the price of oil does. That?s why it lives in my long-term model portfolio.

Oh, and I got an A+ on the paper, and the following year Algeria raised the price of oil to $12.

Can You Spot the Double Agent?

A Faberge Egg

September 20, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 20, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(SEPTEMBER 25 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT)

<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13390" alt="BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-2" src="https://madhedgefundradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-22.jpg" width="400" height="264" />Some Retirement!

<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-17011" src="https://madhedgefundradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Japanese-Girl.jpg" alt="Japanese Girl" width="480" height="337" />Kaching!

<img decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16847" src="https://madhedgefundradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Soldier.jpg" alt="Soldier" width="480" height="341" />I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!

Can You Spot the Double Agent?

A Faberge Egg

Some Retirement!

Kaching!

I Want My Mad Hedge Fund Trader!