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DougD

March 23, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 23, 2009
Featured Trades: (BAC), (JAVA), (MSFT), (IBM), (NTAP), (SNDK), (EMC), (CTXS), (CRUDE), (GOLD), (TM), (HONDA)

1) I'm sorry I'm late getting my comments out today, but I had to get my application in to manage the Treasury's latest $1 trillion bailout program. They're due April 10, and I wanted to get mine in ahead of Black Rock's.?? I only have to show $10 billion in assets under management and the ability to raise $500 million. For this, the FDIC will effectively lend me interest free long term loans to buy all of the toxic assets I want at deep discount prices with 6:1 leverage. I'm sorry, but I can't resist those 'heads I win tails, you lose' trades the Feds are offering, hence the rush. This certainly takes nationalization of the banks off of the table, and makes those buyers of Bank of America (BAC) two weeks ago at $2.50 look pretty smart. The government has now shot its wad, and there is really nothing else they can do now but sit back and pray until the $3 trillion in stimulus/bailout/reliquifying they have committed to starts to work.

BACToday.png picture by sbronte

2) Has anyone noticed that the economies with the biggest infrastructure stimulus packages, the US and China, are having the biggest bounces in their stock markets? Those with a 'deer caught in the headlights' policy response, like in Europe, are seeing a much less impressive move in their markets. Gee, do you think there is a connection?

3) When Citigroup (C) fell below $1 two weeks ago it became the first Dow stock to be offered on McDonald's dollar menu.

4) IBM's $8 billion takeover bid for Sun Microsystems (JAVA) at double the previous market price has sparked an explosion in call option buying by hedge funds betting the industry consolidation trend will accelerate. The big buyers in this sector, IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT) have cash coming out of their ears, and things certainly are cheap enough. Traders loaded the boat with perennial takeover targets like Network Appliance (NTAP), SanDisk (SNDK), EMC Corp. (EMC), and Citrix Systems (CTXS). A flurry of takeover activity is a classic sign of a market bottom. The best way to play this is to buy call spreads on all of them, and hoped you picked a lottery ticket

4) Last week traders were confused and disoriented when they saw something for the first time this year. Green arrows! It's getting so I can't tell the difference between the fake financial news on Saturday Night Live and John Stewart, and the real thing.

6) Honda has triggered a price war among Japan's hybrid car makers with the launch of its new $19,000 Insight model. The price undercuts a stripped down version of the leading marquee Toyota Prius by a good 10%. Honda was able to beat the competition by using a smaller lightweight gasoline?? engine, slashing weight, smaller batteries, and sharing parts with its existing Civic model. The Japanese carmaker accomplished this at the cost of a mileage drop from 46 to 43 miles per gallon compared to the Prius. These are not small stakes Honda is playing for. In October, JP Morgan predicted that global annual sales of hybrid cars will grow exponentially from 500,000 to 9.6 million by 2018. The vehicles are expected to go a long ways towards helping both the US and Japan wean themselves from unreliable foreign oil imports.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Cash bonuses on Wall Street are going to become a dinosaur,' said Jon Corzine, governor of New Jersey, and former chairman of Goldman Sachs.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-23 12:37:432009-03-23 12:37:43March 23, 2009
DougD

March 20, 2009

Diary
Global Market Comments for March 20, 2009
Featured Trades: (GE)

1) I thought President Obama did a pretty good job with comedian Jay Leno last night. With some pundits already pronouncing his administration a failure, he has the moxie to appear on a late night talk show. For the last eight years, presidential visits to California have been about as frequent as Bigfoot sightings. You can diss all those rumors about Treasury secretary Tim Geithner resigning anytime soon. After 59 days in the White House his bowling score is up to 129. All of his favorite picks for the Final Four basketball championships were in politically sensitive swing states (North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa). While playing basketball, he doesn't get knocked down as much while the secret service is watching, guns at hand. Obama still has the magic touch, speaking with the deliberateness of a trial lawyer, but with the folksy charm of your local barber. One thing is for sure though. Your taxes are going up, baby.

2) There have been 14 bear markets in the postwar period with an average 25% decline. This bear market is down 58%, and it still may have farther to go. No wonder everyone's risk models are blowing up. This time it really is different. Over the last 100 years the average return on stocks has been 10% a year, with 40% of that coming from dividends. Today there are dozens of prime industrial companies offering dividends rates in the mid teens. Why investors are not loading the boat with General Electric (GE) stock yielding 12% at $9/share is beyond me. Take systemic risk out of the equation, and investors will leap at these.

GE.png picture by sbronte

3) Since you do 50% of your business while driving your car, you'll love this new product from the Canadian company Ilane. A combination of a small dashboard box, Blackberry, and blue tooth earpiece permit verbal commands to open your email and have it read to you by a seductive female voice. You can respond with canned answers like 'in transit'. You can also have a short verbal response recorded and then sent as an attached MP3 file. You can have all of this for $600 and an $8 a month subscription fee. It works great as long as your various talking mobile devices don't get in an argument with each other.

4) Private equity funds bemoaning the disappearance of the once lucrative LBO market are migrating en masse to distressed debt as their new raison de etre. Yields of 25% are now common, but this is no market for dilatants. The 4.6% default rate seen at the end of 2008 is expected to soar to 13%-18% by the end of this year. Players are going to need industrial strength research departments, abundant bankruptcy law capability, and expert trading desks just to find this illiquid paper. But with a modicum of leverage their may be able to attain returns for investors that restore them to their former glory.

5) The median home price in the San Francisco Bay Area has fallen to $295,000, a ten year low. This is down 56% from the $665,000 peak seen in July, 2007 (it seems like only yesterday). Sales are up 25% YOY, fueled by a tidal wave of foreclosures and cheap FHA financing. If prices fall further this place might even become affordable. Too bad you can't live off of the sunshine here.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Stocks are not bought on Wall Street, they're sold', say seasoned brokers.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-20 12:33:512009-03-20 12:33:51March 20, 2009
DougD

March 19, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 19, 2009
Featured Trades: (C), (GE), (USO), (TBT)

1) Way to go Ben! If pouring gasoline on the fire doesn't work, try nitroglycerine! Some $1.2 trillion in new agency and bond purchases, including previously untoucheable long term treasury bonds. Goodbye dollar, hello 4% home mortgage rates. Just tack on another 3% to the 2010 inflation rate. The bond market had its biggest up day in history, gold soared $50, the euro gapped up 4%, and commodity prices roared. Citigroup (C) has quadrupled from $1 to $4 since last week, while General Electric (GE) has doubled from $5 to $10! Just when you think this guy has thrown in the kitchen sink, he shows up another truckload of kitchen sinks. I guess this is what a 1590 SAT score gets you.

2) I have a question, Mr. Market.?? If General Electric (GE) got down to $5, Bank of America (BAC) to $2, and Citigroup (C) to $1, where were the share buybacks? Are these companies too broke to buy their own shares, or do they think a few bucks over zero is too much to pay? I'm not sure I like either answer, or even my own question.

3) Early data show that the economy was getting traction even before B-52 Ben launched his carpet bombing campaign. Some $45 billion poured out of near zero yielding money market funds last week. Fannie Mae financed $41 billion in new home loans, the most in a year. Bring on the 'V' recovery!

4) This could be the year of the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which was one of the few growth products in an otherwise disastrous year for the brokerage community. Asset allocators are attracted by the ability to make single sector bets, like in oil (USO), leveraged short plays that would otherwise be banned, like the 200% short long Treasuries fund (TBT), intraday trading, and low fees. The only thing missing is liquidity, which is still inadequate in all but a few of the biggest ETF's. There is now thought to be $400-$500 billion invested in these funds, compared to $4 trillion plus in mutual funds, and the rate of innovation is accelerating. The early entrants in the field, like Vanguard and Barclays Bank, are raking in the cash, leaving more conservative families of funds like Fidelity in the dust. Expect to start seeing more ETF's in your 401K's and pension holdings.

USO.png picture  by sbronte

5) President Obama is getting 40,000 letters a day from individuals and small businesses complaining that their credit has been cut off. He reads a sampling.

6) There is now the equivalent of 60% of the US stock market capitalization sitting on the sidelines in minimally yielding money market funds. What else will Bernanke do to entice this money out of its bunker?

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'An investor has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself,' said Jessie Livermore, a legendary stock speculator of the twenties.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-19 12:30:482009-03-19 12:30:48March 19, 2009
DougD

March 18, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 18, 2009
Featured Trades: (XLF), (XLY), (RLX), (HGX), (HD)

1) The quality of this rally is convincing some investors that this could be the big one. After financials (XLF), which are having an obvious dead cat bounce, the leaders of the past week have been the sectors that led into this recession, like consumer discretionaries (XLY), retailers (RLX), and home builders (HGX). The chart of Home Depot (HD) tells the whole story. These are exactly the sectors you would expect to move in a new bull market.

HD.png picture by sbronte

2) Consumer prices jumped by 0.4% in February, the largest increase since July, suggesting that we may not be plunging into a deflationary death spiral after all. Rising gasoline and clothing prices led the way. Expect contradictory economic data to increase from here.

3) Here is another mustard seed. Pfizer successfully floated a jumbo $15 billion multi tranche, multi maturity bond issue to finance its $65 billion takeover of Wyeth. The three year paper was priced at 305 pips over Treasuries, with the shorter term paper 195 basis points over three month LIBOR. These are not exactly bargain terms, but the fact that this deal got done at all is proof that life is certainly returning to the corporate lending market. Seeing investors show up tells you that some of the systemic risk is starting to ebb.

4) OPEC voted to keep quotas at their current reduced levels, spurring crude to top $50 yesterday, a two month high. At this point, helping revive near comatose importers with low prices is more important for members than squeezing out a few more dollars in revenues. The cartel has done a better job keeping cheaters in line than in the past, with Saudi Arabia doing the heavy lifting on production cuts. We are backing off a couple of bucks today because of a surprise 3.2 million barrel jump in gasoline inventories. But the enormous contango has started to shrink, suggesting that the $32 low we saw in December is looking safer by the day. Could crude's revival be another early hint at a recovery in the broader global economy?

WTIC-1.png picture by sbronte

5) I'm glad that I'm not counting on an AIG bonus check to clear the bank. CNBC has turned into the AIG channel. I can only imagine how that annual review conversation went down. 'The good news is that your bonus is $5 million. The bad news is that you will have to spend $25 million in legal fees defending it'. Thank goodness for small favors. What hath Obama wrought?

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'To be right when a great power is wrong can be a dangerous thing,' said Benjamin Franklin. He should know.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-18 12:26:532009-03-18 12:26:53March 18, 2009
DougD

March 17, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 17, 2009
Featured Trades: (REAL ESTATE)

1) I am more convinced than ever that real estate has another 25% to fall, and best case, it is dead money for another five to ten years. The New York Times produced some insightful data on inflation adjusted home prices for the last 120 years, which baselines at a $100,000 for a single family home in 1890. Few people realize how superheated the recent real estate bubble really got. Past bubbles very consistently peaked at $125,000 in 1896, 1979, and 1989. This last one peaked at $205,000 in 2005, almost double the previous record highs. And while we have dropped 34% since then, to $135,000, we haven't even fallen to the past all time highs yet. If you look at historical lows, my call for a further 25% slump looks positively bullish. We saw lows consistently around $66,000 in 1920, 1932, and 1942. Postwar lows came in at $105,000 in 1976, 1983, and 1996. These figures suggest the best case low is down a further 28%, and the worst case is down another 51%. I think I'll go find something else to trade.

2) After a merciless torrent of budget cuts, California's public education system has been bled dry, and now ranks 50th in the US, down from number one when I attended classes here a half century ago (oops!). The golden state now spends more on its 170,000 prisoners that on educating the young. When I recently tried to get Fedex to send a package to Japan, the clerk thought it was a city on the east coast and refused to take it because she couldn't find the zip code. I ended up mailing it. Those trying to engineer an economic recovery in California don't understand that you can't become globally competitive with a dumbed down work force.

3) If you are wondering why it has gotten so hard to sell wine, look at this chart of personal consumption cuts which I fudged from Business Week. It says that Americans have chopped their purchases of alcoholic beverages by $11.2 billion YOY. Opening a restaurant is even a worse idea because spending there has dropped by $55.7 billion.

Change in personal consumption
billions of 2007 dollars
january08-january09

Cars, light trucks, SUV's???? ?????? ??-$115.2 billion
Food???? ??-$55.7 billion
Clothing, accessories, and jewelry???? ??-$18.1 billion
Household operation???? ?????? ?????? ??-$15.9 billion
Alcoholic beverages???? ?????? ?????? ??-$11.2 billion


QUOTE OF THE DAY

'The dark side of the moon is the hardest to see,' said Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan-The Impact of the Highly Improbable.'

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-17 12:23:052009-03-17 12:23:05March 17, 2009
DougD

March 16, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 16, 2009
Featured Trades: (CHINA), (BAC), (C)

1) Fed chairman Ben Bernanke did a great interview with CBS 60 Minutes last night. It's nice to know that the recession 'might' end this year. He ruled out the big banks going to zero, which is great news for Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). This should support global stock markets for at least another day, and every day helps! Who knew he missed only one question on his SAT test to score a 1590 and that his mother didn't want him to go to Harvard because he didn't have the right clothes? I bet it was a question in the verbal section. It was all a nice bit of hand holding while we may be enduring the worst quarter for the economy in a century. If we don't surpass the -8.1% seen in Q1, 1981, it will certainly be in the top three worst quarters of all time. Anyone going shopping, visiting a car dealer, or waiting in long lines for unemployment benefits will tell you this. By the way, BAC is now trading like a penny stock, up nearly triple from last week's low. A BAC triple? Pinch me!

BAC-3.png picture by sbronte

2) Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, the world's preeminent independent risk control consultant, passed through town last week to promote his latest book, The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing. The book details how money managers must become cognizant of and deal with foreign laws, regulation, government turnovers, civil unrest, expropriation, terrorism, and war, in order to survive in this increasingly complex and interconnected world. Globalization has ground to a screeching halt. Governments are now more important than multinationals in influencing our economic future, and a new form of 'state capitalism' is emerging. We are shifting from a unipolar to a nonpolar world. Iraq is morphing from war into a peace keeping operation, while Afghanistan is rapidly moving in the opposite direction. Geopolitical risks are rising. With crude at $46 a barrel there is no Iran premium currently in the market, and $20-$30 could price in very quickly. China and Brazil are the long term winners in the new set up, and the dollar is the big loser. The greatest risk to the US is its overdependence on borrowing from China. This is a must read book for any hedge fund manager struggling with his global risk exposure and looking for some great long term plays.

3) In one of the worst market timing efforts ever, the Financial Times reports that China dramatically increased it weighting in equities and other risk assets for its $1.8 trillion in reserves in early 2007, just before the markets crashed.?? The, unfortunately named, State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) boosted its holdings in US equities alone, from $4 billion to $100 billion, which have since dropped at least by half. It turns out the Middle Kingdom took its hard earned profits from US exports and used the money to buy, now worthless, American lottery tickets. I'm glad I'm not the guy who has to explain this decision to the country's senior leadership. At least poorly performing fund managers in the West don't face firing squads, or at least not yet.

4) The top Ten Messages Found on Bernie Madoff's answering machine, according to comedian David Letterman:

10) 'This is Barnes & Noble. I'm sorry we don't sell calendars for the year 2159.'
9) 'Hey Bernie, I've been out of the country-how are my investments doing?'
8) 'Blockbuster calling. Your copies of 'The Great Escape' and 'The Shawshank Redemption' are overdue.'
7) 'Do I have the correct number? Is this 1-800-F***-***?'
6) 'It's Ruth'?if you go out, remember to swindle some milk and eggs.'
5) 'If you're under house arrest why aren't you home?'
4) 'Sorry, I didn't mean to dial your number. I just sat on my phone.'
3) 'Hi Bernie, its A-Rod's cousin. You looking to bulk up for prison?'
2) 'It's Michael Phelps. Need something to help you relax?'
1) 'It's George W. Bush. Can I still get in?'


QUOTE OF THE DAY

'How badly can you get hurt falling out of a basement window,' said Bob Brusca of Fact and Opinion Economics about current stock prices.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-16 12:19:032009-03-16 12:19:03March 16, 2009
DougD

March 13, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 13, 2009
Featured Trades: ($USD), (DOLLAR)

1) I ran into governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the men's bathroom at San Francisco's Mark Hopkins yesterday, much to the distress of his posse of ex Marine bodyguards. He was there to take credit for hammering together a compromise solution to his state's $42 billion budget fiasco in front of 400 admiring members of the Commonwealth Club of California. After heavies physically dragged hecklers out of the ballroom, the retired Terminator confessed that enduring the tedious, and often contentious negotiations was worse than watching his first movie, 'Hercules in New York.' The shortfall was so gigantic, that even firing all 200,000 state workers would not have filled the gap. Well funded special interests from both the right and the left make it impossible to get anything done in Sacramento. Unrestrained gerrymandering means that extremists are rewarded at the polls, and moderates punished. Of course, the budget compromise still requires an amendment to the state constitution which must be approved by voters on May 19, not exactly a sure thing. I have never been a big fan of the 'governator,' but a lot of what he said made sense.

2) I once gave you the specs of your next car, the plug-in Prius. Now I can tell you what your kids will drive. Toyota is rumored to be working on a sub compact hybrid that will sell 20%-30% cheaper than its existing alternative vehicle. The Japanese giant is attempting to head off inroads being made by Honda's Insight model, and lay a greater claim to the world's car market.

3) Chinese president Hu Jintao has expressed 'concern' about the safety of his country's $696 billion investment in US Treasury bonds. What he is not telling you is that he is even more 'concerned' about the hundreds of billions of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GMAC, and other agency debt, which are either now untradeable, or have gone into the toilet. And 'concerned' he should be. Not only is some of the paper China owns now worthless, there is a 50% devaluation of the dollar in the cards which is the guaranteed result of current US government printing press policies. One of the great luxuries of running a dictatorship is that you can skip mark-to-market accounting. The government entities that own this garbage are carrying it on their books at par, because they intend to hold it to maturity. If China used mark-to-market they would have plunged into another civil war by now. Expect to hear more 'concerns' from Japan, Singapore, and the sovereign wealth funds that are in the same boat.

DollarIndex.png picture by sbronte

4) The diamond market has crashed. Recession plagued wholesalers and retailers in the US, which account for half of world demand, are glutted with stagnant inventory, and have watched helplessly as prices dropped a third from the 2007 peak. De Beers has shuttered its Botswana mine, which supplied a quarter of the world's rough sparklers. Diamonds account for a third of the African country's GDP and 80% of its foreign exchange income, and now Standard and Poor's is threatening a sovereign ratings downgrade. Was there ever a better time to drop down on one knee and make that marriage proposal?


QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Politics are like a road. The middle is drivable, but on the right and left you find the gutter,' said President Dwight D. Eisenhower.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-13 14:42:232009-03-13 14:42:23March 13, 2009
DougD

March 12, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 12, 2009
Featured Trades: (TBT)

1) Forbes Magazine has published its annual list of the 400 wealthiest, and the carnage has been awesome. The net worth of the elite club has shrunk from $4.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion, with the average dropping from $3.9 billion to $3 billion. Bill Gates, worth $40 billion, jumps back up to the number one position, even though he lost $18 billion in 2008. The number of billionaires has plunged from over 1,100 to 793. Among the fallen are Citigroup's Sandy Weil, Facebook's Mark Zukerberg, and AIG's Hank Greenberg, and of course, Sir Alan Stanford.?? China managed to add five new billionaires, including Wang Chuanfu, founder of battery maker BYD, who has attracted backing from Warren Buffet for his electric car efforts.

2) The global economic collapse has finally hit China with full force, knocking down exports by 25.7%, and shrinking imports by 24% in February. The ghastly figures show how rapidly international trade is shrinking. The Middle Kingdom's trade surplus is in free fall, and it is just a matter of time before the renminbi starts to fall against the dollar. Do you suppose that anyone in the US government understands that this will lead to fewer Chinese purchases of Treasuries, just when they need to sell the most? Better double up on the TBT, the 200% short long bond ETF.

TBT-2.png picture by sbronte

3) Looks like we are going to have to invent ourselves out of this mess. One third of US GDP is produced by companies that were created after 1980. Almost all new jobs are created in firms that are less than five years old. These figures show that innovation is the primary driver of new hiring.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

' For decades, the money shufflers, the paper shufflers, have been the captains of the universe. That is now changing. The people who produce real things will be on top. You're going to see brokers driving taxis,' said legendary investors Jim Rogers, former partner of George Soros.

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DougD

March 11, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 11, 2009
Featured Trades: (GOLD)

1) Noted international monetary economist Judy Shelton believes the US should return to at least a partial gold standard to help damp volatility in the $4.4 trillion a day foreign exchange market to hasten an economic recovery. The current 'dirty float' system, where a free market is subject to occasional coordinated central bank intervention that emerged after the collapse of the original Bretton Woods agreement in 1973, is not working. The US currently holds 260 million ounces of the yellow metal, which for some arcane government accounting reason is still carried on its books at the old fixed rate of $42 an ounce. At today's prices the holdings are worth no less than $231 billion. Such a system would make it easier for governments to manage interest rates and control inflation. The highlight of the evening came when she passed around a ten ounce gold bar worth $9,000 and a one billion deutschmark Weimar Republic bank note, both of which were miraculously returned to her. In the meantime, the recent bounce in global stock markets raise the risk that we have put in a medium term double top in the chart for the barbaric relic.

GoldNew.png picture by sbronte

2) The economic crisis is accelerating the demise of print journalism, whose migration to the Internet was already well underway as cash hemorrhaging owners desperately take a hatchet to costs. Advertising by car dealers has almost vaporized, and revenues from retailers are off by half. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer is in the process of downsizing from print to online only, and early indications are that 85% of the staff will be laid off. If you extrapolate these figures nationally, 37,000 of the 44,000 full time employed journalists in this country are soon to be fired. Newly laid off investment bankers, brokers, and hedge fund managers hoping to build second careers as writers are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'When we declared war in 1941, there were not 8,000 earmarks attached,' said Warren Buffet in chiding congress in its handling of the economic crisis.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-11 14:30:512009-03-11 14:30:51March 11, 2009
DougD

March 10, 2009

Diary

Global Market Comments for March 10, 2009
Featured Trades: (GE), (ABX), (SPX), (WTIC), (OIL)

1) It only took a few dew drops of good news for the Dow to recover from its near death experience and rocket 350 points. The 'I love America trades' of long bonds and Treasuries came back with a vengeance. The 'short America trades' were last seen running down the street with their tails between their legs, with gold breaking key support at $900. News that Citigroup was profitable in 2008, and rumors of the suspension of the uptick rule and mark-to-market accounting were enough to do the trick. It also helped that every technical analyst on the planet was screaming 'Buy!'Although this may not last, even a single day of fresh air is welcome.

2) While most industries are facing the worst conditions in 70 years, the market for business journalists is booming, who investors increasingly look to for advice on how to save their last dollar. During the first two months of this year the financial network CNBC, a subsidiary of General Electric (GE), averaged 282,000 home viewers, compared to 264,000 last year and 233,000 in 2007. The financial crisis is boosting profits there, much as the Gulf War did for CNN in 1991. The network is now increasingly becoming the story itself, offering a rallying point for criticism of the Obama administration as it plays to its overwhelmingly conservative audience. Anti bailout comments by futures markets reporter Rick Santelli, who called those behind on mortgages 'losers', sparked nationwide 'tea party' rallies. The theatrical Jim Cramer accused Obama of causing 'the greatest wealth destruction of any US president,' inviting a White House counterattack. Convincing people they are sick, and then offering to sell them the medicine for a cure, has always been a great business strategy.

3) There is one canary in the coal mine that was squawking loud and clear yesterday. Chinese stockpiling, hedge fund short covering, and rebel interruption of exports from Nigeria drove crude to a two month high yesterday at $48.50, up 50% from its December low. The huge contango, where far month futures contracts traded at enormous premiums, has shrunk dramatically, taking selling pressure off of the front month contract. Perish the thought, but could this be an early indicator of an economic recovery? Today's stock market action certainly says so. Go buy that Smart car!

Crude.png picture by sbronte

3) The Financial Times printed a great interview with Peter Munk, the visionary chairman of Canada based Barrick Gold (ABX), the world's largest gold producer. He says that it will only take decisions by a few central banks to move gold up to $2,000 an ounce. The feeling of insecurity is here to stay, and the appeal of gold as a hedge has broadened enormously. With a new floor of gold at $800, the profitability of gold mining companies is soaring. Gold is a win-win play because if financial distress continues, so will gold's flight to safety bid. If the economy recovers, jewelry demand will come roaring back. The world's gold supply is constrained, as miners are having to dig deeper and deeper. Send me another sack of American eagles!

GOLD-1.png picture by sbronte


QUOTE OF THE DAY

'If I had only followed CNBC's advice, I'd have a million dollars today, provided that I'd started with $100 million,' said John Stewart of the comedy program, The Daily Show.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2009-03-10 14:25:272009-03-10 14:25:27March 10, 2009
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