
Global Market Comments
October 5, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE JOHN THOMAS BIOGRAPHY IS OUT)
(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR)
(THE BEST TESTIMONIAL EVER)
If you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme.
One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights.
Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only 2.5% is fresh, and three quarters of that is locked up in ice at the North and South poles. Global warming is freeing up some of this, but not fast enough.
In places like China, with a quarter of the world's population, up to 90% of the fresh water is already polluted, some irretrievably so.
Some 18% of the world population lacks access to potable water, and demand is expected to rise by 40% in the next 20 years.
Aquifers in the US, which took nature millennia to create, are approaching exhaustion.
While membrane osmosis technologies exist to convert seawater into fresh, they use ten times more energy than current treatment processes, a real problem if you don't have any, and will easily double the end cost of water to consumers.
While it may take 16 pounds of grain to produce a pound of beef, it takes a staggering 2,416 gallons of water to do the same. Beef exports are really a way of shipping water abroad in concentrated form.
The UN says that $11 billion a year is needed for water infrastructure investment. It says a lot that when I went to the University of California at Berkeley School of Engineering to research this piece, most of the experts in the field had already been retained by major hedge funds!
At the top of the shopping list to participate here should be the Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF (CGW). You can get is for a bargain now, as it has just fallen by more than 10% since the stock market melt down began.
You can also visit the PowerShares Water Resource Portfolio (PHO), the First Trust ISE Water Index Fund (FIW), or the individual stocks Veolia Environment (VE), Tetra-Tech (TTEK), and Pentair (PNR).
Who has the world's greatest per capita water resources? Siberia, which could become a major exporter of H2O to China in the decades to come.
The US is Still the Saudi Arabia of Fresh Water
“The money pouring out of the emerging markets is not bad for the US. We are the oasis in this situation,” said strategist Louis Navellier, of Navellier Associates.
Global Market Comments
October 4, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, OCTOBER 31 MIAMI, FLORIDA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(DON’T GET SCAMMED BY THE MUTUAL FUNDS),
(THE FALLING MARKET FOR KIDS)
"I wouldn't rush to come back from the beach this summer," said my buddy, Steve Weiss of Short Hills Capital Partners.
Global Market Comments
October 3, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY OCTOBER 6 FRANKFURT GERMANY STRATEGY DINNER)
(CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE)
(WHO SAYS THERE AREN’T ANY GOOD JOBS?)
Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Dinner, which I will be conducting in Frankfurt, Germany. The event begins at 7:00 PM on Friday, October 6, 2023.
A full dinner will be provided and there will be an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $287.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a downtown Frankfurt hotel, the details of which will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.
Thanks to China's “one child only” policy adopted 40 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls.
Large-scale interference with the natural male-to-female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years and is constantly generating unintended consequences.
Until early in the last century, starving rural mothers abandoned unwanted female newborns in the hills to be taken away by “spirits.” Today, pregnant women resort to the modern-day equivalent by getting ultrasounds and undergoing abortions when they learn they are carrying girls.
Millions of children are “little emperors,” spoiled male-only children who have been raised to expect the world to revolve around them. The resulting shortage of women has led to an epidemic of “bride kidnapping” in surrounding countries. Stealing of male children is widespread in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Mongolia.
The end result has been a barbell-shaped demographic curve unlike that seen in any other country. The Beijing government says the program has succeeded in bringing the fertility rate from 3.0 down to 1.8, well below the 2.1 replacement rate. As a result, the Middle Kingdom's population today is only 1.2 billion instead of the 1.8 billion it would have been.
Political scientists have long speculated that an excess of young men would lead to more bellicose foreign policies by the Middle Kingdom. But so far the choice has been for commerce, to the detriment of America's trade balance and Internet security.
In practice, the one-child policy has only been applied to those who live in cities or have government jobs. That is about two-thirds of the population. On my last trip to China, I spent a weekend walking around Shenzhen city parks. The locals doted over their single children, while visitors from the countryside played games with their three, four, or five children. The contrast couldn’t have been more striking.
Economists now wonder if the practice will also shave points off China's long-term economic growth rate. The early evidence is that it did. Parents with boys tend to be bigger savers, so they can help sons with the initial big-ticket items in life, like education, homes, and even cars.
The end game for this policy has to be the Japanese disease; a huge population of senior citizens with insufficient numbers of young workers to support them. The markets won't ignore this.
In the latest round of reforms announced by the Chinese government was the demise of the one-child policy. But no matter how hard you try; you can’t change the number of people born 40 years ago. The boomerang effects of this policy could last for centuries.

While recently winging my way across the South Pacific a few years ago and browsing the local papers, I spotted an unusual job offer:
WANTED: Social worker, tax-free salary of $60,000 with free accommodation and transportation, no experience necessary, must be flexible and self-sufficient.
With the unemployment rate rising for recent college grads, I was amazed that they were even advertising for such a job. Usually, such plum positions get farmed out to a close relative of the hiring officials involved.
Intrigued, I read on.
To apply, you first had to fly to Auckland, New Zealand, then catch a flight to Tahiti. After that you must endure another long flight to the remote Gambler Island, then charter a boat for a 36-hour voyage.
Once there, you had to row ashore to a hidden cove on the island, as there was no dock or even a beach.
It turns out that the job of a lifetime is on remote Pitcairn Island, some 2,700 miles ENE of New Zealand, home to the modern descendants of the mutineers of the HMS Bounty.
History buffs will recall that in 1790, Fletcher Christian led a rebellion against the tyrannical Captain William Bligh, casting him adrift in a lifeboat.
He then kidnapped several Tahitian women and disappeared off the face of the earth. When he stumbled across Pitcairn, which was absent from contemporary naval charts, he burned the ship to avoid detection.
An off-course British ship didn’t find the island until some 40 years later, only to find that Christian had been killed for his involvement in a love triangle decades earlier.
The job is not without its challenges. There is only one doctor, and electric power is switched on only 10 hours a day. Supply ships visit every three months. The local language is a blend of 18th century English and Tahitian called Pitkern, for which there is no dictionary.
Previous workers have a history of going native. Oh, and 10% of the island’s 54 residents are registered sex offenders, due to its long history of incest.
The next time someone you know complains about being unable to find a job, just tell them they are not looking hard enough, and to brush up on their Pitkern.
For more on the job situation, please visit my website by clicking here.
Global Market Comments
October 2, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or BACK IN BUSINESS)
(TLT), (GLD), (SLV), (XLU), (IWM), (EEM), (FXA), (FXE), (FXB), (USO), (UUP), (AMZN), (TSLA), (F)
















