Global Market Comments
April 18, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO JOIN THE SPRING 2016 US STRATEGY LUNCHEON TOUR),
(PLEASE USE MY FREE DATA BASE SEARCH),
(WHO WAS BEN BERNANKE?)
Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting around the US on the dates below.
A three course lunch will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too.
Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets range from $200 to $250.
I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at exclusive five star hotels in every city center that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com and click on the ?STRATEGY LUNCH? tab in the second row, then the ?USA? tab, and finally the city of your choice.
Friday, April 15 - Houston, TX
Monday, April 18 ? Miami, FL
Tuesday, April 19 ? Atlanta, GA
Wednesday, April 20 ? Washington DC
Thursday, April 21 ? Boston, MA
Friday, April 22 ? New York, NY
Monday, April 25 ? Chicago, IL
Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depended on the judgment of Ben Bernanke, I thought I?d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke?s War on the Great Panic.
I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn?t already know. I couldn?t have been more wrong, as David gave me some fascinating insights into the inner soul of our much-vaunted Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Bernanke was the smartest kid in rural Dillon, South Carolina, who, through a series of improbable accidents, and intervention by a local black civil rights leader, ended up at Harvard.
He built his career on studying the Great Depression, then the closest thing to paleontology economics had to offer, a field focused so distantly on the past that it was irrelevant.
Bernanke took over the Fed when Greenspan was considered a rock star, inhaling his libertarian, free-market, Ayn Rand inspired philosophy in great giant gulps.
Within a year the economy had suddenly transported itself back to the Jurassic Age, and the landscape was suddenly overrun with T-Rex?s and Brontosauri. He tried to stop the panic 150 different ways, 125 of which were terrible ideas, the remaining 25 saving us from the Great Depression II. This is why unemployment is now only 5%? instead of 25%.
The Fed governor is naturally a very shy and withdrawing person and would have been quite happy limiting his political career to the Princeton, NJ school board.
To rebuild confidence, he took his campaign to the masses, attending town hall meetings and pressing the flesh like a campaigning first term congressman.
The price tag for Ben?s success has been large, with the Fed balance sheet exploding from $800 million to $4 trillion, solely on his signature. The true cost of the financial crisis won?t be known for a decade or more.
The biggest risk is that we grow complacent, having pulled back from the brink and let desperately needed reforms of the financial system and the rebuilding of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slide.
Ben Bernanke?s legacy will be defined by how well his successor, my friend, Janet Yellen, does her job. Unwind the bubble too soon and we go back into a real depression. Too late and hyperinflation hits.
That?s when we find out who Ben Bernanke really was.
?Though the preachers of pessimism prattle endlessly about America?s problems, I?ve never seen one who wishes to emigrate (though I can think of a few for whom I would happily buy a one-way ticket), said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.
Global Market Comments
April 15, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE APRIL 19 ATLANTA GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(HITTING THE ROAD),
(CNN'S JOHN LEWIS:? THE DEATH OF A COLLEAGUE)
?
I am taking off today on my Spring 2016 US Road Show, hitting seven cities in seven days. The schedule will include:
Friday, April 15 - Houston, TX
Monday, April 18 ? Miami, FL
Tuesday, April 19 ? Atlanta, GA
Wednesday, April 20 ? Washington DC
Thursday, April 21 ? Boston, MA
Friday, April 22 ? New York, NY
Monday, April 25 ? Chicago, IL
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, click on the ?STRATEGY LUNCH? tab in the second row, then the ?USA? tab, and then click on the city of your choice.
These are small groups, usually 6-12, giving me the opportunity to answer any individual questions you may have, as well as enabling me to learn how to improve your service.
Since I will be running in and out of airports, hotels, and lunches for the next week, I won?t be able to file my regular in-depth research reports and incisive market updates. So my intrepid staff will be sending you my ?golden oldies? for the interim.
This is so new subscribers can benefit from past research nuggets and legacy subscribers can review pieces they either missed the first time around, or have forgotten.
Don?t worry, I?ll still be watching the markets. I am THAT addicted. The modern world?s panoply of beeping electronic devices, like iPhones and iPads, make this easy.
While sitting in airport club lounges, I?ll also be knocking out the next week?s letters, drawing on the hundreds of ideas I constantly have swirling around in my head. If you only knew what I find in there sometimes!
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader team is currently in a major expansion mode, and we have doubled our staff since the beginning of the year. The result will be a series of new products and services for your benefit that will knock your socks off, as well as enhance your trading ability.
Yes, this is costing me millions of dollars. But I?m sure that it will be the best investment I?ll ever make, except maybe for those Tesla shares (TSLA) I bought six years ago at $16.
It appears that in this zero or negative interest rate world there is a lot of demand for the 38% average annualized return the Trade Alert service has delivered. And a lot of followers make a lot more than that! It looks like my service will be paying for quite a few new Tesla Model S-1?s and Model X?s this year.
Sure, the last six months have been tough. This too shall pass.
I?ll take this opportunity to say thanks again for supporting my research.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
Hitting the Road
?The economy without debt is like major league baseball without steroids,? said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank.
Global Market Comments
April 14, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE APRIL 18 MIAMI GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(ROTATING INTO HEALTH CARE AND BIOTECH),
(VRX), (ABBV), (BSX),
(IBB), (AMGN), (GILD), (CELG), (BIIB), (REGN),
(HOW TO AVOID PONZI SCHEMES),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX)
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB)
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Celgene Corporation (CELG)
Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN)
Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Miami, Florida on Monday, April 18, 2016.
A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $247.
I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a restaurant at a major downtown hotel.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.
There has been no more despised sector in the stock market for the past eight months than health care and biotech.
Ever since presidential aspirant Hillary Clinton launched the Tweet that sank the troubled sector in August, both political parties have taken turns beating it up, like tag team wrestlers.
Clinton wants more competition in the industry and an end to price gouging, naming companies by name, like Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) as guilty parties. Trump is demanding more competition from foreign imports.
Ted Cruz intends to demolish that great wellspring of health care profits, Obamacare, on his first day in office. Bernie Sander wants to nationalize the lot.
Traders and investors can be forgiven for not wanting to touch health care with a ten-foot pole. The stocks responded by cratering a heart rending 30%-80%.
However, a funny thing has happened over the last few weeks. Health care and biotech stocks have started going up.
And you know what? They are going to keep going up. In fact, I think that health care, along with banks, and energy will be your big alpha plays for 2016.
The sector has one big thing going for it: the calendar.
Each passing day brings the end of the current election closer, and the end of the present onslaught on the sector. Think of all the negativity as an option approaching accelerated time decay.
And here?s the crucial thing about health care. The earnings story never went away, only the share valuations did. Health care and biotech remain the healthiest segments of US industry with the greatest earnings prospects.
China, eat your heart out!
So fall down on your knees and thanks the politicians for a gift that will keep on giving. Their fulminating is enabling you to get into one of the best industries at the cheapest possible prices.
The shopping list is rich.
AbbVie (ABBV) was spun off from Abbot Labs in 2013. It has a relatively low cost cancer drug, Imbruvica, that dodges political risk. It also sells a blockbuster rheumatoid arthritis drug, Humira, and a hot thyroid drug. Earning per share will double in two years.
Boston Scientific (BSX) has a solid market share in medical devices, one of the safest corners of the health care field. No controversial $100,000 cures here. So does Thermofisher (TMO).
Gilead Sciences (GLD) is a name my Trade Alert followers already know and love, having made fortunes there in the last couple of years. They have the last word in a hepatitis cure, Solvaldi. For more depth on the compan,y please read my latest opus by clicking here for ?Keep Gilead Sciences on Your Radar?? (note: you have to be logged in to read it).
Celgene (CELG) has several blockbuster drugs in the pipeline treating psoriasis (Otezla), blood cancer (Revlimid), and cancer (Abraxane). A classic baby boomer retirement play, the company should double in value in five years.
Finally, if you want to take a safer basket play, look at the IShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB). Their top holdings include Amgen (AMGN), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Celgene (CELG), Biogen (BIIB), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN).
To view its prospectus, please click here.
As for Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), I wouldn?t touch IT with a ten-foot pole.
