I am sitting in the transit lounge of Mohammed V airport in Casablanca, Morocco.
Women in brightly colored, flowing burkas, reflecting disparate Berber tribes, sit impatiently, waiting flights to the remote corners of the kingdom. Their hyperactive children are running around aimlessly, their screams eloquently bouncing off the cavernous ceiling.
My flight is seven hours late, and I am the only westerner in the airport. Ah, the joys of travel.
When I was three years old, in 1955, my parents took me to the opening day of Disneyland in Anaheim, California. Tickets were impossible to get, and on the first day, more than 10,000 tried to get into the fabled theme park, more than double the capacity.
However, my dad knew Walt?s brother, Roy Disney, and managed to gain us entry.
Right there on Main Street was Walt himself, greeting each guest as they strolled down an avenue from yesteryear. We lined up to shake his hand, and when my turn came, I pulled out my cowboy cap gun and shot Walt at point blank range.
He smiled, and to my delight, he feigned an agonizing death. My embarrassed mother hurriedly hustled me aside.
I never forgot that incident. Walt Disney was ever the entertainer, although later I learned he was a real bastard to work for, a screamer of the first order.
Some 60 years later, and 49 years after his passing from lung cancer in 1966 (he was an inveterate chain smoker), Walt Disney Corp. (DIS) is still going strong.
It survived the financial crisis in fine fettle. It went on an aggressive round of acquisitions, cherry picking the entertainment industry of its crown jewels. It is now poised to see its earnings go ballistic as the global demand for quality content explodes.
If there was ever a company that had pixie dust sprinkled upon it, this is it.
You would not think that Disney would be piquing my interest here, with the failure of the just released Tomorrowland, and the disastrous Lone Ranger two years ago.
But without anyone noticing, Disney has in recent years turned into a monster global conglomerate.
It bought Steve Jobs? Pixar in 2006, locking up the best programming in animation (Toy Story, Finding Nemo, and the present runaway hit, Inside Out). It picked up Marvel Entertainment in 2009 (Iron Man, Spiderman, the Incredible Hulk, and Captain America). It paid $4 billion to my friend George for Lucas Entertainment in 2012 (the Star Wars monopoly).
Bet you didn?t know Disney owned the sports money machine ESPN, which alone promises to kick in a staggering $4.5 billion in EBITDA this year, accounting for 28% of group earnings.
As a result, Disney has created an entire ecosystem of products, not unlike Apple?s (AAPL). Watch a film, and you end up buying the toys, games, clothes, TV show, and eventually taking your kids on the ride and the cruises.
This massive content upgrade has enabled them to become the top box office draw of 2015. Incredibly, Avengers: Age of Ultron, a story about a monster who lives inside the Internet and wants to destroy the earth, promises to become one of the top five grossing films of all time.
Apparently, wiping out the planet sells well these days.
This is happening globally!
Nobody has assembled a portfolio of assets with the breadth and depth that Disney has.
What?s more, the tried and true sequel rollout is about to jump to warp speed over the next two years. Through 2017, we will see new iterations of Star Wars, The Jungle Book, Finding Nemo, Toy Story, The Avengers, and Pirates of the Caribbean.
Ring that cash register!
The Star Wars relaunch is particularly interesting, as it means the company is about to capture the lion?s share of the $107 billion a year entertainment based toy and merchandise business. They are already handily beating out competitors Viacom (VIA), Time Warner (TWX), and DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA).
Plastic, made-in-China Wookies, R2D2?s, Darth Vaders, and Millennium Falcons made George Lucas a staggering $27 billion in sales, compared to the $8 billion he took in from films, because the original movie producers considered the rights to such tchotchke worthless.
Indeed, Disney is already dominant in the business, with 300 stores worldwide. Any dad with kids who passed near one of these franchises was always easy prey for a $50 hoodie or princess doll.
A synchronized revival of the global economy means the marquee park business is going from strength to strength. A new one near Shanghai is about to open and become the biggest ever.
It seems that opening a Disneyland near a city of 25 million upwardly mobile consumers is always a good idea. The second a new middle class Chinese consumer joins the western economy, they want to buy a set of mouse ears.
Even the perennial loser, Disney Paris, the only park that serves wine, is turning around, thanks to the European Central Bank?s new, aggressive program of quantitative easing. Ironically, Disney bonds are among the hundreds of private issues that the ECB is hovering up.
Walt was always fascinated with technology. His first animated cartoon, Steamboat Willie, which introduced Mickey Mouse to the world in 1928, was state of the art. He blew audiences away with Fantasia in 1939, inventing new three-dimensional glass plate cameras to do so.
Disney became the first customer of two struggling engineers working out of a Palo Alto garage, who went on the form Hewlett Packard (HPQ). Their homemade oscilloscopes provided sound for the movie.
From a trading and investment perspective the story here gets better. (DIS) shares are trading at 18 times 2016 projected earnings of $18 a share. That compares to other competitors trading at higher multiples with lower earnings growth.
It is a rare instance of the best quality growth selling at a discount. This means that the stock could easily rise another 50% over the next two years based on what Disney already has in place.
All of this makes (DIS) stock fodder for a low risk, in-the-money, vertical call spread, even a long dated one. It seems to be the stock that perpetually goes up, ideal for long-term portfolios as well.
Of course, I always add the proviso to buy on a pullback. Good luck finding one of those. The shares have only seen a single 15% decline in the past year (in October).
However, the second I see one, I?ll be knocking out a Trade Alert as fast as I can write it.
Mickey?s Mandarin is Improving, Goofy, Not So Much
I hope that this note finds you well.
Thank you for everything you do to make my world a better place. I am simply, grateful.
Please let JT know I said he?s earned every minute of his upcoming vacation.
I am grateful he challenged me to do more, and that I accepted.
I hope our paths cross soon, until then stay inside & hydrate.
Thank you again?. :)
Bill,
North Carolina
?I keep six honest serving men. (They taught me all I knew); Their names are What and Why and When and How and Where and Who.? said the writer, Rudyard Kipling.
Global Market Comments
July 15, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR)
(FLYING WITH SIR RICHARD BRANSON)
Global Market Comments
July 14, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 MILAN, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(REPORT FROM LONDON),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Come join me for lunch at the?Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s?Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Milan, Italy on Wednesday, July 22, 2015. A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $267.
I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a boutique Hotel in the downtown area of the city near the Galleria and the Duomo Cathedral.
Milan is one of the great renaissance cities of Italy. Even your local neighborhood trattoria?serves the best food on the planet.
I am spending a few days there to visit the 2015 Milan Expo, which is expecting 20 million visitors this year (click here?for the website).
Not far from the hotel you can view Leonardo da Vinci?s greatest masterpiece,?The Last Supper?at the Santa Maria delle Grazie church.
Opera lovers will find?La Scala?just around the corner, which is doesn?t perform during the summer, but offers a fascinating museum and tour.
And if you like to shop, Milan is your town, as it the fashion capital of the world. Every year, I find the pull of the local?Brioni?store irresistible.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please?click here.
I write this to you from my double suite on the Orient Express crossing the Swiss Alps. My manservant, Charles, is off fetching a cup of tea and steam pressing my white dinner jacket for tonight?s luxury soiree.
Customs at London?s Heathrow airport was a breeze, and the new express train whisked me into Paddington in a mere 18 minutes.
That night at the Naval & Military Club, a group of British Army officers just back from Afghanistan, and their dates, hosted a blowout black tie homecoming party, complete with disc jockey and disco ball.
While singing a drunken ?Rule Britannia? at 4:00 AM we maxed out the amplifiers and ended up blowing the power, not only for our building, but for the entire block.
Suddenly, our 18th century building was plunged back to the 18th century, meaning no lights, Internet, or flushing toilets. Candelabras solved the first problem, and a pink hard copy Financial Times the second, but when nature called, I had to retire to the pub across the street.
Each time I did so, I enjoyed a pint of Fuller?s London Pride, not sure if I was making my problem better or worse. Two days later, two truck sized diesel generators on loan from the British Army magically showed up and solved the power problem, and we returned to the 20th century.
In England, it?s always been all about who you know.
The next morning, I staggered out of the club, my eyes blinking at the light, my head pounding, to be greeted by 1,500 cyclists, completely naked in all their glory.
It was some form of protest against the use of cars in the city. London never changes, does it? It is only a matter of time before the movement migrates to the states, I hope.
The Globe Theater is a magnificent reproduction of the original, which burned down in 1613 during a canon scene in Henry VIII (click here for the link at http://www.shakespearesglobe.com/).
Its thatched roof, open-air seats, and 12-inch roughhewn oak beams led me to expect The Bard from Stratford-upon-Avon to walk out any moment. Actors tore through the standing crowds, reciting lines, and embracing a startled few theatergoers.
Half way through As You Like It, I realized that the devotees sitting next to me were mouthing the lines. They had memorized the entire script.
One afternoon I asked a somewhat doddering old taxi driver to take me to Kensington Palace, who seemed quite impressed. He drove me directly to Harry and Kate?s private entrance.
After giving me the gimlet eye, Scotland Yard directed us to the correct entrance for the tourists. I try not to cause international incidents when on vacation, and this time I came close.
England definitely did not show its best face when I walked out of a comedy club into Leicester Square at 2:00 AM. The women were so drunk that they walked barefoot across the vomit-covered pavement, unable to walk in high heels.
Another day found me at Christie?s auction house for a private viewing of John James Audubon?s spectacular Birds of America. The multi-volume set was in mint condition, the colors as bright as the day they were printed.
Only 70 of the original print run of 140 in 1838 are known to exist. One sold for $11.5 million last year, making it the world?s second most valuable book after the Gutenberg Bible.
My last morning in London found me desperately hailing a taxi in a torrential downpour. The taxi gods smiled upon me, and I was soon barreling down the streets of Piccadilly and Westminster on the way to Victoria Station.
It seems that a ?20 tip can move mountains here. I arrived with more than enough time for a pre-prandial glass of Champagne before boarding the Orient Express.
To be continued.
Global Market Comments
July 13, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(REPORT FROM VENICE),
(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)
If you ever need someone to owe you a big favor, make sure it is the world?s best hotel.
That is what I discovered when I checked into the legendary Cipriani Hotel in Venice, Italy. I had booked their cheapest room at $1,500 a day. Due to a screw up on the reservations, I learned to my great distress, that I could stay only one night.
The good news was that they graciously offered me a free upgrade to their presidential suite, a two-bedroom palace stuffed with 18th century antiques, exquisite Murano glass chandeliers, and its own private pier.
All of this was a bargain for $12,000 a day. Would you care for a $1,000 complimentary dinner for two? And, oh, seniore, could we please cover the cost of the rest of your entire stay in Venice at the Hotel Danieli, a 16th century palace that was the city?s other trophy hotel? Total value of these freebees: $18,000.
Thank you Orient Express!
Thus, my stay in Venice was off to a spectacular and serendipitous start. They say ?See Venice, and die.? That?s because so many drop dead when they get the bill.
Feel like a continental breakfast for two with cappuccino for $100? It was all worth it, as breakfast on the roof of the Danieli was one of those once in a lifetime, bucket list type experiences.
Watercraft churned by in the hundreds, including ancient gondolas, wheezing, smoky old vaporetos, water taxis, inflatable dinghies, and even sail boats. I fought the sea gulls for the butter patties, which if not eaten immediately, melted in the heat.
Squeezing my way through the crowded alleyways of this enchanted Renaissance city, I caught a snapshot of the global economy.
The only Americans I saw were either young hedge fund traders wearing Rolex watches, or technology moguls cashing in this this year?s bubbliscious prices. The rest were clearly scared off by the price tag.
The Japanese were still there in force. But the groups included many single spinster women in their thirties and forties escorting their parents, unable to get married in an economy that has shown almost no growth in two decades.
They were joined by large tour groups from the up and coming economies of China and Brazil, their leaders barking out orders and leading the charge with large umbrellas or flags.
The super yachts of the Russian oligarchs lined the waterfront, conspicuous with their obscure Caribbean flags of convenience.
Extended Arab families that included two, three, or even four wives, and uncountable children in designer togs could be spotted in the best restaurants, the women laboring in their burkas in the 95-degree heat. It seems that oil at $100 a barrel will cover every bill and excuse any excess.
I have been coming here since 1968, and am never disappointed. I made my ritual stop by Harry?s Bar for a Champagne Bellini, and strolled past the American Express office where I used to pick up my mail during my wild and reckless, pre Internet youth.
I made a pilgrimage to Quadracci?s on the Piazza San Marco, where my grandfather used to sip espresso with another young ambulance driver named Earnest Hemingway during WWI. Family legend has it that Hemingway modeled his Italian driver friend on grandpa, who in the book gets killed.
That night, I had the concierge send a speedboat around to my room to take me across the lagoon to the Casino at the Lido. An Arab at my blackjack table was losing $50,000 a hand and sending out hugely negative vibes, so I moved.
I just wanted to let you know where the money for your $4 a gallon gasoline was going. As I was playing merely to see who was there, I gave my winnings to the dealer, who gave me a big grazie. It seems that Italians are lousy tippers.
On my way back, I stood in my powerboat alone, holding on to the cabin and racing across the water at 40 knots in the darkness, wearing my white dinner jacket and bow tie, the wind blowing through my hair, thinking life is good.
I better come up with some new trades to pay for all of this. I mentally prepared myself for my strategy luncheon the next day in Milan.
To be continued.