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Hot Tips
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June 27, 2025
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Punitive Tariffs Return on July 9,
possibly bringing the stock rally to a grinding halt. Yes, that would include the 145% tariff for China. Countries are hesitant to sign deals without knowing how these sectoral levies will impact them, and some, like India, are pushing for commitments from Washington that any deal will match the best agreement offered to any other nation.
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Consumer Sentiment Improves,
in June to a four-month high, with the final June sentiment index increasing to 60.7 from 52.2 a month earlier. Consumers expect prices to rise 5% over the next year, down from 6.6% in May, and they saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4% over the next five to 10 years. Despite the improvement in sentiment, consumers remain anxious about the potential impact of tariffs, and their views are still consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. It's really very simple: rising share prices make people more confident.
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US Equity Funds See Sixth Weekly Outflow,
as of June 25 as investors took profits near record highs and stayed on edge ahead of key growth and inflation data. According to LSEG Lipper data, investors withdrew a net $20.48 billion from U.S. equity funds during the week, posting their largest weekly net sales since March 19.
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Why is Bitcoin Dead in the Water?
The stock market has made an extraordinary comeback from its lows earlier in the year despite lingering questions about the economy and rising geopolitical tensions, but bitcoin’s gains have been more muted. The flagship cryptocurrency hasn’t rallied in a big way since the beginning of the year. Since May 9, it’s traded in a tight $10,000 range – with a brief blip above that ceiling to its all-time high of nearly $112,000. And this is despite billions of dollars in ETF inflows in that period. On Wednesday, bitcoin ETFs logged 12 consecutive sessions. Both milestones underscore the strength of institutional demand even amid market uncertainty. The funds have collectively seen about $3.5 billion in inflows this month, while the price of bitcoin itself has risen just 2%, according to Coin Metrics.
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Bitcoin Buying Firms are Multiplying.
Over the past year, the number of bitcoins held by companies has jumped nearly 170 per cent. A total of about 130 listed firms hold a combined $87bn of bitcoin, equivalent to about 3.2 per cent of all the bitcoins that will ever exist. MicroStrategy (MSTR) started the trend and now holds a heart-stopping $33 billion in Bitcoin. Among those pivoting to a “bitcoin treasury” strategy is the Trump family media firm. While some firms’ main focus is on buying bitcoin, others are hoarding it while still running other, larger business lines.
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June 20, 2025
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Mad Hedge Hits 42.59% Profit in 2025,
up 12.90% in June alone. We went into June with a 100% “RISK OFF’ portfolio, and every position came good with the June 20 options expiration. That takes our trailing one-year return to a mind-bending 98.01%. The harder I work, the luckier I get.
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The Economy is Sinking,
according to Fed governor Jay Powell. Uncertainty about tariffs and inflation appears to be taking its toll on the economy. Members of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy committee yesterday lowered their projections for annualized growth in America’s gross domestic product to just 1.4% for 2025 on Wednesday.
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More AI Cuts Hit the Jobs Market.
Microsoft plans to lay off several thousand employees within weeks. It’s the latest knock-on effect of investment in artificial intelligence, where efficiencies come from increased AI capabilities, and there is a need to offset spending on the technology. Microsoft will cut thousands of jobs in its sales department and other teams from July. Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion in its current fiscal year to build out data centers that train models and run AI applications. The latest cuts come on top of a reduction of around 6,000 jobs in May across product and software developer roles. Microsoft had around 228,000 full-time employees at the end of June last year.
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New Export Restriction on China Slap Chip Stocks.
A US official told top global semiconductor makers that he wanted to revoke waivers they have used to access American equipment in China. Such a move is expected to escalate trade tensions. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, a closely watched benchmark, fell as much as 2% after the report was published.
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Nvidia Goes Nuclear.
TerraPower, the nuclear startup founded and backed by Bill Gates, announced a new $650 million funding round this week. The investment will help the company build its first commercial power plant. Like other nuclear startups, TerraPower has been riding a wave of interest from hyperscalers, data center developers, and, now, chip designers. Nvidia’s venture arm, NVentures, participated in the round, marking its first energy investment. Buy Nuscale Power (SMR) on dips.
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June 18, 2025
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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged.
GDP expectations were cut from 1.7% to 1.4% in 2025, while inflation and unemployment expectations are rising. It’s a perfect stagflationary forecast. The number of voters opposed to a rate cut rose from 4 to 7. I don’t expect any rate cuts this year because of tariff-driven inflation.
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Housing Starts Hit 5-Year Low.
Multifamily dropped 30% MOM as a record supply hits the market. Single-family home starts fell 7% YOY. All housing-related stats are falling off a cliff.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, down 5,000 to 245,000.
The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed widespread layoffs in the prior week, which had boosted claims to an eight-month high. Though some technical factors accounted for the elevation in claims, layoffs have risen this year, with economists saying President Donald Trump's broad tariffs had created a challenging economic environment for businesses.
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US Crude Inventories Hit One-Year Low.
Crude inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels in the week ending June 13, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel draw. The rise in exports came even as the price differential between Brent and WTI futures has narrowed in recent weeks, a move that typically discourages exports. Companies are attempting to shrink inventories of assets whose price is falling.
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Waymo Applies for New York City License,
for self-driving taxes. The company has applied with the city’s Department of Transportation to operate its vehicles autonomously in Manhattan with a trained human specialist supervising behind the wheel. Shares in rival ride-hailing providers Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) and Lyft Inc. (LYFT) slid on the news. We already have 1,500 in San Francisco.
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June 17, 2025
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Retail Sales Dive,
declining 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus. The decline followed a 0.1% loss in April and came at a time of unease over tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Sales rose 3.3% from a year ago. More recession indicators.
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Homebuilder Sentiment Hits Pandemic Low.
Higher mortgage rates and uncertainty in the broader economy continue to weigh on consumers — and consequently on the nation's homebuilders. Builder sentiment in June dropped 2 points from May to 32 on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Anything below 50 is considered negative. The index stood at 43 in June 2024.
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Tesla Halts CyberTruck and Model Y Production,
for a week in Austin, Texas due to collapsing demand. Tesla is tentatively launching the robotaxi in Austin on June 22, using Model Y vehicles equipped with a new version of the company's "Full Self-Driving" technology.
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U.S. Factory Production Barely Rose in May
as a surge in motor vehicle and aircraft output was partially offset by weakness elsewhere, and the outlook for manufacturing remains clouded by tariffs.
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in April, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production rebounding 0.2% after a previously reported 0.4% drop. Production at factories increased 0.5% on a year-over-year basis in May.
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Solar Stocks Crash,
the Senate spending bill accelerates the phase-out of subsidies. The oil industry gets to keep all of its subsidies. The lack of tax credits will make the panels less cost-competitive against other sources of power. A homeowner installing a $20,000 system today could qualify for a $6,000 credit on their taxes; the legislation would change that, making the homeowner take on the entire $20,000 cost.
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June 16, 2025
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Oil Supplies are Stable for Now,
with only a few Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities. It helps that there is a global oil glut and widespread overproduction. The Straits of Hormuz remain open. Last year, Iran produced 3.3 million barrels a day, nearly all of which went to China. But the American price of gasoline will rise, nonetheless. The US oil industry never wastes a war. For now, it’s buy oil, sell equities.
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New York State Manufacturing Index Plunges.
The index, which is compiled from a survey of approximately 200 manufacturers across the state, registered at -16.00, indicating worsening conditions compared to the previous period.
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FAANG is Peeking, COW is IN,
or Costco (COST), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and Walmart (WMT). Peeking, big tech stocks are about to get replaced by lagging large retailers. During times of uncertainty, owning the stocks of best-in-class retailers could provide a measure of safety. These are among a few retailers well-positioned with a clear path to upward earnings estimate revisions in this environment.
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Paint your Portfolio Green with Sherwin-Williams (SHW).
Despite their end market remaining weak, Sherwin has shown the ability to protect margins and grow market share. While competitors slow down investment, Sherwin has stepped on the gas, increasing their new-store count growth and winning market share annually as competitors become bankrupt or divest their store business. It recently acquired many of the assets of recently bankrupt Kelley Moore for pennies on the dollar.
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Long Term US Bonds have Become Pariahs.
Bond investors, anticipating the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged again this week, are moving away from longer-dated Treasuries as they temper expectations for an aggressive easing given the lower chance of a U.S. recession. Their flight away from the long end of the curve also reflects worries about the House tax and spending bill, which will take the National Debt up by $3 trillion or more.
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