Archive
Hot Tips
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June 18, 2025
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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged.
GDP expectations were cut from 1.7% to 1.4% in 2025, while inflation and unemployment expectations are rising. It’s a perfect stagflationary forecast. The number of voters opposed to a rate cut rose from 4 to 7. I don’t expect any rate cuts this year because of tariff-driven inflation.
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Housing Starts Hit 5-Year Low.
Multifamily dropped 30% MOM as a record supply hits the market. Single-family home starts fell 7% YOY. All housing-related stats are falling off a cliff.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, down 5,000 to 245,000.
The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday showed widespread layoffs in the prior week, which had boosted claims to an eight-month high. Though some technical factors accounted for the elevation in claims, layoffs have risen this year, with economists saying President Donald Trump's broad tariffs had created a challenging economic environment for businesses.
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US Crude Inventories Hit One-Year Low.
Crude inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels in the week ending June 13, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel draw. The rise in exports came even as the price differential between Brent and WTI futures has narrowed in recent weeks, a move that typically discourages exports. Companies are attempting to shrink inventories of assets whose price is falling.
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Waymo Applies for New York City License,
for self-driving taxes. The company has applied with the city’s Department of Transportation to operate its vehicles autonomously in Manhattan with a trained human specialist supervising behind the wheel. Shares in rival ride-hailing providers Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) and Lyft Inc. (LYFT) slid on the news. We already have 1,500 in San Francisco.
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June 17, 2025
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Retail Sales Dive,
declining 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus. The decline followed a 0.1% loss in April and came at a time of unease over tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Sales rose 3.3% from a year ago. More recession indicators.
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Homebuilder Sentiment Hits Pandemic Low.
Higher mortgage rates and uncertainty in the broader economy continue to weigh on consumers — and consequently on the nation's homebuilders. Builder sentiment in June dropped 2 points from May to 32 on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Anything below 50 is considered negative. The index stood at 43 in June 2024.
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Tesla Halts CyberTruck and Model Y Production,
for a week in Austin, Texas due to collapsing demand. Tesla is tentatively launching the robotaxi in Austin on June 22, using Model Y vehicles equipped with a new version of the company's "Full Self-Driving" technology.
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U.S. Factory Production Barely Rose in May
as a surge in motor vehicle and aircraft output was partially offset by weakness elsewhere, and the outlook for manufacturing remains clouded by tariffs.
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in April, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production rebounding 0.2% after a previously reported 0.4% drop. Production at factories increased 0.5% on a year-over-year basis in May.
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Solar Stocks Crash,
the Senate spending bill accelerates the phase-out of subsidies. The oil industry gets to keep all of its subsidies. The lack of tax credits will make the panels less cost-competitive against other sources of power. A homeowner installing a $20,000 system today could qualify for a $6,000 credit on their taxes; the legislation would change that, making the homeowner take on the entire $20,000 cost.
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June 16, 2025
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Oil Supplies are Stable for Now,
with only a few Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities. It helps that there is a global oil glut and widespread overproduction. The Straits of Hormuz remain open. Last year, Iran produced 3.3 million barrels a day, nearly all of which went to China. But the American price of gasoline will rise, nonetheless. The US oil industry never wastes a war. For now, it’s buy oil, sell equities.
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New York State Manufacturing Index Plunges.
The index, which is compiled from a survey of approximately 200 manufacturers across the state, registered at -16.00, indicating worsening conditions compared to the previous period.
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FAANG is Peeking, COW is IN,
or Costco (COST), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and Walmart (WMT). Peeking, big tech stocks are about to get replaced by lagging large retailers. During times of uncertainty, owning the stocks of best-in-class retailers could provide a measure of safety. These are among a few retailers well-positioned with a clear path to upward earnings estimate revisions in this environment.
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Paint your Portfolio Green with Sherwin-Williams (SHW).
Despite their end market remaining weak, Sherwin has shown the ability to protect margins and grow market share. While competitors slow down investment, Sherwin has stepped on the gas, increasing their new-store count growth and winning market share annually as competitors become bankrupt or divest their store business. It recently acquired many of the assets of recently bankrupt Kelley Moore for pennies on the dollar.
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Long Term US Bonds have Become Pariahs.
Bond investors, anticipating the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged again this week, are moving away from longer-dated Treasuries as they temper expectations for an aggressive easing given the lower chance of a U.S. recession. Their flight away from the long end of the curve also reflects worries about the House tax and spending bill, which will take the National Debt up by $3 trillion or more.
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June 12, 2025
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PPI Comes in Weak.
The US Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in May, indicating muted inflation across the board and no sign of price shocks from tariffs. While some components of the report showed possible tariff-related price increases, they were offset by modest inflation in other areas, resulting in overall tame inflation.
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Government Spending Hit a New All-Time High,
in May. Increased spending on Medicare and Homeland Security was a big factor. After running a short-lived surplus in April thanks to tax season receipts, the deficit totaled just more than $316 billion for the month, taking the year-to-date total to $1.36 trillion. The annual tally was 14% higher than a year ago, though the May 2025 total was 9% less than the May 2024 shortfall.
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(KKR) Sees Major Stock Sales.
On June 2, founder Henry Kravis sold 1.28 million (KKR) shares for $154 million, an average price of $119.99 each. He sold 1.15 million shares from a personal account and 130,925 shares through a limited liability company that he controls, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Jack Daniel’s Tales a 15% Hit.
Owner Brown-Forman (BF.B) stock sank on Thursday after the owner of American bourbon companies Jack Daniel's and Woodford Reserve reported lower-than-expected earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter and warned of further challenges over the coming year. Bourbon is always a trade war target, with some European retaliatory tariffs reaching 200%.
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Tariff Revenues Hit New All-Time High,
at $23 billion in May, up 60% YOY. US customs duties climbed to a record in May, helping shrink the budget deficit for the month, while doubts remain about the persistence of the inflows as the administration negotiates with trading partners and faces a judicial challenge over its levies.
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June 11, 2025
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The Core Inflation Rate Come in Light,
up 0.1% MOM in May to 2.4%. Food prices were up 0.3%. The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed underlying price pressures muted last month. Economists say inflation has been slow to respond to sweeping tariffs, as most retailers are still selling merchandise accumulated before the import duties took effect. Next month’s report for June should show the first impact of tariffs.
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Another MicroStrategy Copycat Start Up,
with Japanese hotel group Metaplanet announced a $5 billion investment in Bitcoin. They are aiming to buy 1% of the total Bitcoin, or 210,000 coins, by the end of 2027. The move caused (MSTR) to jump $20. The Ponzi Scheme continues.
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Assets held in crypto funds hit a record high in May,
as easing trade tensions lifted risk appetite and some investors used digital currencies to hedge against market volatility and diversify from their U.S. holdings. Morningstar data on 294 crypto funds shows they attracted $7.05 billion in net inflows last month, the highest since December, bringing total assets under management to a record $167 billion.
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Boeing (BA) heads into the Paris Air Show after booking 303 new orders,
and rolling out 38 new 737 MAX jets, a production rate it has been working to reach for more than a year. The company also delivered 45 aircraft last month. It was the sixth-highest monthly order tally in Boeing's history, according to company data.
The orders included the largest widebody jet deal in Boeing's history. Qatar Airways orders account for 130 787s and 30 777Xs, plus options for another 50 of the long-haul aircraft. It looks like the turnaround is here.
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Biotech Remains a No-Go,
after the Department of Health and Human Services fired the entire 17-member vaccine oversight board, the odds of another pandemic just rose. Analysts and investors said that while the dismissal of all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) represented a risk for vaccine makers, the weak performance of those stocks in 2025 suggested that Kennedy's skepticism around vaccines was already factored in. Shares of most big drugmakers are down in 2025, compared with a 2% gain in the S&P 500 index. Avoid biotech stocks.
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