Archive
Hot Tips
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July 10, 2025
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Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion Market Cap.
Yes, the tiny company we recommended 15 years ago at a split-adjusted $2 a share is now the world’s most valuable company. Mad Hedge has just raised its target from $180 to $200. What is the next Nvidia? Watch this space.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fell
during the shortened July 4th week. Initial claims decreased by 5,000 to 227,000 in the week ended July 5. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose to 1.97 million in the previous week, still the highest since late 2021.
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Amazon Prime Day Sales Plunge 41% YOY.
It expanded its annual Prime Day summer sale to four days from two, betting the extension would give shoppers more time to navigate the millions of deals on its web store. Maybe they’ll make it up in the next three days. Buy (AMZN) on dips.
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Italy Buys US Corn Flakes.
Ferrero International SA is close to acquiring WK Kellogg Co. for about $3 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Ferrero has selectively bought brands, including from Kellogg, which made the corn flakes we all grew up on, to bulk up its lineup of products, and a WK Kellogg transaction would further diversify Ferrero's business. Corn flakes with Parmesan cheese, anyone?
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Clothing Imports from China Hit 22-Year Low,
with tariffs killing off the business at a record rate. The US imported $556 million worth of clothing from China in May, down from $796 million in April – data. US apparel imports from Mexico rose 12% in May from the year earlier – data. Maybe one million small US retailers will get killed off by tariffs.
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July 9, 2025
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Order a Personal Anime Digital Portrait.
You can download it, send it to friends, sign personal emails, give one as a gift, or just have a laugh. All you have to do is take a selfie, attach it to the order form, and it will be emailed to you shortly. The portraits are created by a starving college student who happens to be my daughter. Starving because I firmly believe that kids need to earn their own way. The cost is only $30 each. To order, please click here and click on “Cartoon Headshots”.
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Poorest Nations Get Hit With Extra 10% Tariff,
the BRICS. The BRICS group expanded last year beyond Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to include members such as Iran and Indonesia. Leaders at the summit in Rio de Janeiro voiced criticism of U.S. military and trade policies.
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Copper Hits New All-Time High on 50% Tariff.
Copper is the latest industry to be targeted under sector-oriented tariffs applied under Section 232 of a 1960s trade law. Already, Trump has applied such sector tariffs on imports of autos, steel, and aluminum. There are other sector tariffs still pending, including lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. The Section 232 tariffs have been a sticking point in some of the trade negotiations with other countries. Here comes the inflation!
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The Energy Sector is Marking Down Earnings.
Exxon (XOM), the biggest U.S. energy company, was rising in early trading even after it flagged that second-quarter earnings will take a hit from lower energy prices. With WTI crude, the U.S. benchmark, down 5.2% this year, Exxon warned that earnings in its upstream unit—the one that extracts oil and gas from the ground—will get reduced by between $800 million and $1.2 billion.
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Used Car Prices Surge,
as still Tariffs drive imported car prices through the roof. A gauge of U.S. used vehicle prices sold at wholesale auctions that proved predictive ahead of the inflation surge following the COVID pandemic is climbing again, last month notching its largest annual increase in nearly three years. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.6% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis and surged 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2022, according to data released on Tuesday. At 208.5, the index has been trending upward for a year and is now at its highest since October 2023.
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July 8, 2025
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The June Nonfarm Payroll Wasn’t So Hot.
Half of the 147,000 gain were government jobs and only 74,000 were from the private sector, a quarter of where they were a year ago. The Headline Unemployment Rate dropped 0.1% to 4.1%. Some 590,000 full-time jobs have been lost since the beginning of 2025. ADP is probably more accurate, down 33,000 for the month, which is what you would expect in the middle of a recession.
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Historic Market Concentration Bodes Ill for Future Gains.
Since 1972, the S&P 500 has posted below-average returns over the next one, three, six, and 12 months when new records were made with fewer than 100 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange also posting highs.
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Copper Tariff Jumps to 50%,
sending Freeport McMoran up 10%, a long-time Mad Hedge recommendation. (FCX) is the world’s largest copper producer. Their US protection is now protected and they can sell overseas production to Europe and China.
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Immigration Crackdown to Cut US GDP by 1.0%,
according to a Federal Reserve study, the trade war will cost another 1.0%. The US population is shrinking for the first time since the Pandemic, which means fewer customers for businesses and fewer income earners. Fewer border crossings — not deportations — are the biggest driver of the hit to growth, the researchers found, accounting for 93% of the projected GDP reduction. 2025 is a write-off, but are we looking at four years of recession?
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Boeing Ramps Up 737 Production,
delivering 60 airplanes last month, the most since December 2023, as the plane maker seeks to raise production of its bestselling 737 Max jets after a series of manufacturing and safety problems. The tally was the highest since before a door plug from one of its new 737 Max 9 planes blew out midair in January 2024, sparking a new crisis for the company and slowing production and deliveries of aircraft. Of the monthly total, 42 were 737 Maxes, going to customers including Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, and United Airlines.
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July 7, 2025
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Dr. Doom Expects Stagflation Shick in H2 2025.
Dr. Nouriel Roubini said that he expects the core personal consumption expenditures index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric — to reach about 3.5% by the end of the year, and economic growth to weaken and possibly turn negative. Best known for calling the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Roubini said the second half will amount to “a mini stagflationary shock,” and that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts until at least December.
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US Drillers Cut Rigs for 10th Week,
or the first time since July 2020, thanks to a global oil glut. The oil and gas rig count declined by about 5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 as lower U.S. oil and gas prices over the past couple of years prompted energy firms to focus more on boosting shareholder returns and paying down debt rather than increasing output.
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OPEC Increases Production by 550,000 Barrels a Day.
The group, which pumps about half of the world's oil, has been curtailing production since 2022 to support the market. The production boost will come from eight members of the group - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. The eight started to unwind their most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd in April. The August increase represents a jump from monthly increases of 411,000 bpd OPEC+ had approved for May, June, and July, and 138,000 bpd in April.
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Tesla Dives 10%,
as Elon Musk reenters politics. Musk said Saturday that the party would be called the “America Part” and could focus "on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts." He suggested this would be "enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people." The billionaire's involvement in politics has been a point of contention for investors. Keep your double short in (TSLA).
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Apple Gets Hit with $62 million EU Fine,
for violating the EU's Digital Markets Act and proposes restrictions on the App Store. Apple recently made changes to its App Store European policies that the company said would be in compliance with the DMA and would avoid the fines.
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July 1, 2025
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Today is the Worst Day to Buy Stocks in 5 Years.
We just saw a 26% gain in less than three months. We have also seen price earnings multiples explode from 18X to 23X. The probability of making money going forward is approximately 33%, with a chance of loss at 64%, on a short-term basis. Over the vast expanse of time, everything eventually goes up.
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US Dollar Plunging to Four Year Low.
The $5 trillion debt ceiling increase in the Budget bill is the main reason, which would take the National Debt from $37 trillion to $42 trillion. Pay for that European vacation now before it gets too expensive to go.
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Tesla’s European Sales are in Free Fall.
Brand destruction is running amok. In Sweden, they fell by 64.4% YOY, and 61.6% in Denmark. Competition from (BYD) has become killer. The war of words between the president and Elon Musk reignited today, with the latter telling Musk to go back to South Africa. He also ordered a review of all Tesla subsidies, which are immense and have kept the company in business. Sell (TSLA).
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Powell Says Inflation to Surge this Summer.
He also admitted he would have to cut rates by now before tariffs injected massive uncertainty into the Economy. I think he’s telling us no interest rate cuts this year.
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US Manufacturing Says We’re Still in Recession.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI nudged up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the sector that accounts for 10.2% of the economy.
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