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Hot Tips
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October 27, 2025
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US Reaches Another Trade Deal with China.
As usual, the details are secret. Never mind if it falls apart in weeks or months. If it gets me a rally in the stock market, that’s fine with me. What happened to the last trade deal? Isn’t one enough? How long until the next one?
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Copper Hits New High on China Trade Deal.
Copper advanced toward a record as optimism over an imminent US-China trade deal added steam to a rally driven by a slew of disruptions at some of the world’s biggest mines. Prices on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.2% to $11,094 a ton, roughly $10 shy of a record reached in May 2024. Buy (FCX) on dips.
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Soybeans Jump on Trade Deal,
taking (SOYB) up 6% on the week. Soybeans and other grains surged as progress in negotiations between the US and China lifted hopes that the world’s two largest economies were edging toward a deal in their protracted trade war. Temporary for US farmers at last.
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Don’t Rush Back into Gold Just Yet.
Precious metals and related mining stocks are retreating after a parabolic move up over the past two months. The charts suggest that gold and gold miners are due for a more prolonged period of consolidation to reset their bullish long-term trends. If the gap-based support near $3,927/oz is breached, it would increase near-term downside risk to the 50-day moving average (MA), currently $3,766/oz. and rising over time.
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Airbnb Ramps Up Anti Party Software,
to eliminate block parties, which tend to destroy the houses. Last year, the company said it prevented about 38,000 people in the U.S. and 6,300 in Canada from making bookings during Halloween weekend. The tech factors in the length of a stay, the distance from a guest’s location, property type, and timing of a booking to block reservations deemed “higher risk.” In 2024, (ABNB) hosted a staggering 491 bookings.
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October 24, 2025
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CPI Comes in Soft at 3.0%,
sparking a runaway rally in all financials. The certainty of a 25-basis-point Fed interest rate cut next Wednesday is assured. The accuracy of this data point is questionable, as it was cherry-picked at the only government release this week from a skeleton staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What is the current Unemployment Rate?
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Fed to Overhaul Stress Tests,
in another big win for financials. The program is aimed at preventing banks from blowing up during the next financial crisis, as did Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns in 2008. But meeting the Fed’s restrictions was expensive and limited leverage to 10:1. Please now, blow up later. Buy all financials on dips.
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2026 Social Security Payments to Rise 2.8%.
More than 75 million Americans receiving Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits will see their monthly payments accelerate from the prior year's increase for the first time in three years. The Social Security Administration announced the annual cost-of-living adjustment to benefits on Friday, less than an hour after the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the CPI for September, which had been delayed by more than a week by the ongoing government shutdown.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Jump 12,000,
to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended October 18 from 220,000 the prior week, economists at Citigroup and Nationwide calculated. Goldman Sachs estimated claims at 227,000 while JPMorgan put the number at 229,000. The government shutdown is weighing heavily on the market.
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Ford Soars 13% on Earnings Beat.
Ford posted revenue of $50.5 billion for the third quarter, up 9% from a year earlier. It reported a 45-cent earnings per share for the period , beating LSEG analysts' expectation of 36 cents. The Detroit Three automaker cut its annual outlook for the second time this year, to earnings before interest and taxes of $6.0 billion to $6.5 billion, from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.
Ford Motor (F) cut its profit guidance on Thursday, citing fallout from a fire at a critical aluminum supplier that will crimp production of some of its most lucrative vehicles through the end of the year. Avoid (F).
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October 23, 2025
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Tesla Disappoints,
with an earnings shortfall that took the stock down $18. Tesla's earnings report was a largely disappointing one, with profit missing Wall Street's estimates despite record vehicle deliveries, and operating income plunged 40% in the third quarter. Elon Musk spent the end of Tesla Inc.'s earnings call pleading with investors to approve his $1 trillion pay package and blasting shareholder advisory firms that have come out against the proposal.
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US Imposes Oil Sanctions on Russia,
spiking prices 5%. The step comes at a time when global supply looks plentiful as nations inside and outside the OPEC+ producer alliance ramp up output amid signs of cooling demand growth. If India does drastically cut purchases — senior refinery executives said the restrictions would make it all but impossible for flows to continue — the question will become whether China is willing to step into the void.
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Existing Home Sales Hit Seven-Month High,
up 1.5% in September. Supply of previously owned homes surges 14.0% from a year ago. Median house price up 2.1% to $415,200 from the year-earlier period. Home sales jumped 4.1% on a year-over-year basis. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is near a one-year low of 6.27%. Some realtors have also said the shutdown is delaying contract closings. All-cash sales constituted 30% of transactions, unchanged from a year ago.
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Rivian Announced Mass Layoffs,
as the end of the EV Tax credit on September 30 craters sales. The expiration of a $7,500 U.S. federal tax credit for purchases of new EVs last month is expected to drive up prices and further weaken demand, posing a fresh challenge for automakers such as Rivian already grappling with mounting cost pressures. The EV nuclear winter continues.
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Beyond Meat Reaches Short Interest Exceeds 100%,
meaning that 100% of its share float has been sold short, and no more selling is allowed. About 109% of Beyond Meat's free float shares were shorted, up from 81.8%, as of Wednesday. Short interest in a stock can exceed 100% of its free float due to the re-lending of borrowed shares, allowing multiple investors to short the same underlying stock. Avoid (BYND).
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October 22, 2025
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Netflix Bombs,
with earnings coming in at $5.87 a share versus an expected $6.97. Revenues were in line, but operating margins came in short due to a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities. Guidance was also lower. Ad revenue has doubled. K-pop Demon Hunters wasn’t enough. Buy (NFLX) on dips.
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General Motors Goes Ballistic to All-Time High,
up 15%, with a tremendous earnings beat and forecast. Imagine what their earnings would be without tariffs. Market share recovered to 17%. There is a big pivot away from EVs to internal combustion engines. Falling interest rates also help. No more CAFÉ standards, no more green credit buys from Tesla. Boy, did I miss this one.
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Beyond Meat Achieves Meme Stock Status.
The highly shorted shares jumped more than 60% on Wednesday, fueled by a fresh wave of buying among retail traders who have sparked meme stock frenzies on Wall Street in recent years. It is up a staggering 15X in a week on a massive short squeeze. The company has struggled with weak sales as demand dropped for its plant-based meat patties over the past four years, triggering job cuts and measures to manage its debt pile. Avoid (BYND).
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Gold Takes Another Big Hit,
down $72 on the day. The barbarous relic is now down an eye-popping $450, or 11% on the week. Profit-taking is running rampant. Prices averaged $3,574.95 per ounce in the July–September quarter, up 43.5% year-on-year. Bullion prices surged past $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever this month, with some analysts now forecasting a run to the $5,000 mark next year. Precious metal miners are also benefiting from stable production and contained cost pressures, Stifel analysts said, flagging rising contractor fees, royalties, and taxes linked to gold prices as potential challenges. Overnight, we have flipped from FOMO to fear of margin calls. Wait for gold to bottom out before reentering.
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US Health Insurance Premiums Jump to $27,000.
Reflecting higher spending on popular weight-loss treatments and other prescription drugs. The survey of employers, conducted in the first half of this year, found that premiums for coverage for a family rose $1,406 to $26,993 on average for the year. Workers will have contributed $6,850 of that, with employers covering the balance.
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October 21, 2025
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Gold Dives 5%,
after hitting a fresh peak of $4,381.52 an ounce on Monday, as a strengthening US dollar made precious metals more expensive for most buyers. Haven demand for precious metals has cooled somewhat as the US and China are set to meet next week to iron out their differences on trade. Get ready to buy the dip in (GLD).
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Apple Surges to a new All-Time High,
approaching $4 trillion in market cap. The iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, with the newer models out-selling the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries. My 2026 LEAPS are up 35%.
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Coca-Cola Beats,
and keeps annual sales, profit targets despite challenges. Coca-Cola, which is set to launch its cane sugar trademark soda in the U.S. in the fall season, is planning to offer mini 7.5-ounce single-serve cans, priced at less than $2 in U.S. convenience stores, to target lower-income consumers.
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Silver Coin Bags are Back.
Pre-1965 U.S. coins, containing 90% silver, are an investment option for physical silver, with silver prices up almost 80% this year. $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 silver coins, containing 715 troy ounces, costs about $38,000, a small premium to spot silver. Silver is up almost 80% this year to $52 an ounce after hitting a record $54 recently. There is also some copper value since the coins are 90% silver and 10% copper. Silver may hit $100 an ounce in 2026.
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Pulte Homes Beats,
with third-quarter earnings of $2.96 per share on $4.4 billion in revenue exceeded expectations, but the home sale gross margin was 26.2%. Home orders totaled 6,638, a 6% decrease from the third quarter of 2024, largely meeting analyst estimates. Buy (PHM) on dips.
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