Archive
Hot Tips
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May 1, 2025
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Microsoft Goes Ballistic,
With the second 10% move in a month. Indications are that AI spending is continuing unabated, taking the entire tech space up with it.
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ISM Manufacturing Index Says the Recession is Here.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Manufacturing in high-cost America has been in a structural decline for three years now and is accelerating to the downside.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rocket by 18,000.
First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended April 26, up 18,000 from the prior period and higher than the estimate for 225,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind and provide a broader view of layoff trends, rose to 1.92 million, up 83,000 to the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021.
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General Motors to take $5 Billion Hit on Tariffs.
GM on Thursday lowered its 2025 earnings guidance to include a possible $4 billion to $5 billion impact as a result of President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs. GM said its new guidance includes adjusted EBIT of between $10 billion and $12.5 billion, down from $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion. GM released first quarter results Tuesday that beat Wall Street’s expectations but delayed its investor call and updated guidance details amid expected changes to the auto tariffs.
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MacDonalds Reports Worst Same Store Sales in Five Years,
down 3.6% in Q1. It could be a slowing economy. It could also be from the rise of weight loss drugs GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic or Wegovy, now taken by 40 million Americans, that kill your appetite.
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April 30, 2025
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Massive Put Buy Hits the Market Today,
by the $20 billion JP Morgan Chase as Hedged Equity Fund rolls forward short positions. That may explain the very low opening we got this morning with the volatility spike.
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MicroStrategy Issues 10% Yielding Preferred Stock,
to buy more crypto. The securities are not rated, but if they were, they would be considered low-rated junk. The issue is unprecedented as the company has no earnings to guarantee dividend payments. (MSTR) already owns $40 billion worth of crypto, which has dropped 50% from the November peak and is one of the worst-performing stocks of 2025. This is the biggest Ponzi scheme in history, but it may double first. Sell (MSTR) on rallies.
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Hedge Funds are Still Dumping Technology Stocks,
as they still command big premiums in the main market. The most heavily owned stocks, like Tesla and Nvidia, are falling the fastest. Hedge funds were retreating at a time when the macroeconomic environment suddenly grew less certain. The president's aggressive tariff charges on imports into the U.S. stoked fears of dampened consumer spending, slower economic growth, and even a recession.
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Vaccine Stocks Get Nailed,
as the FDA moves to eliminate the vaccine establishment. Expect stocks to fall and disease to rise. The Food and Drug Administration's top vaccine official, Peter Marks, had been forced to resign, the most high-profile exit at the regulator as the Trump administration undertakes an overhaul of federal health agencies.
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Gold Stocks in Comex Warehouses Hit Record high,
due to the risk of import tariffs curtailing shipments to the United States from other countries. Latest data from Comex, part of CME Group, shows gold stored in its warehouses in the United States at an all-time high of 43.3 million troy ounces worth $135 billion at current prices compared with 17.1 million in November. Spot gold prices surged past $3,100 per ounce to a fresh record high on Monday. Bullion is up 19% so far this year after rising 27% in 2024. Buy (GLD) on dips.
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April 29, 2025
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What were the Three Worst Performing Trump Stocks?
Thank goodness I didn’t recommend any “BUYS” in Decker Outdoor (DECK), which led the S&P 500 down with a 48% plunge during this period. The profit margins were too low for me, even pre-trade war. The Ugg and Hoka maker buys most of its products from China. Robot builder Teradyne (TER) was down 44%, and lithium miner Albermarle (ALB) is off 40%.
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JOLTS Job Openings Report was Unchanged in March at 7.1 Million,
said the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed a little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) were unchanged, and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) edged down.
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Pizza Demand is Collapsing!
Or so says Domino's Pizza, the largest seller of the Italian treat. The company posted a surprise decline in first-quarter same-store sales in its biggest market, as elevated inflation and economic uncertainty hit consumer appetite for restaurant food. Never ignore the pizza index!
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S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Slows to 3.9% YOY,
in February, a sharp slowdown. Home prices are increasingly untenable to potential home buyers. Waning consumer confidence, heightened insecurity over economic uncertainties, and the future of household budgets are impacting the consumer housing market. New York (7.7%), Chicago (7.0%), and Cleveland (6.6%) show the biggest gains, while Tampa showed a (1.4%) loss. Expect real estate to remain a major drag on the US economy, with mortgage rates at 7.0%.
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Amazon May Break Out the Trump Tariffs on Invoices,
to show that the extra tax is going to the government and not them. The White House responded explosively, calling it “a hostile political act.” As for me, I’m all for full disclosure. Amazon already breaks out state sales taxes.
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April 28, 2025
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California is Now the World’s Fourth Largest Nation.
The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook data for 2024 found that California had a nominal gross domestic product of $4.1 trillion, after the US, China, and Germany, but surpassing Japan. Some 40% of all American corporate profits now emanate from the Golden State thanks to its dominance in technology.
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops 17% Gain This Year.
The Class A shares, now around $795,000 and near a record, are up 40,000-fold from around $20 in 1965, when Buffett took control of a struggling textile company and began his run as Berkshire’s leader. Berkshire has stood out in a year when many are moaning about losses in their equity portfolios. The stock is up 17%, besting the S&P 500 by 23 points, the widest margin since 2007. Buy (BRK/B) on dips.
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Bitcoin ETF’s Suck in $3.5 Billion Last Week,
as the “Sell America” trade expands. Exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin and Ether attracted more than $3.2 billion last week, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) alone seeing a nearly $1.5 billion inflow — the most this year.
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Big Cap Tech Sells Off,
going into earnings. The Q1 earnings will be good, it’s the guidance that traders are terrified about. Apple’s (AAPL) guidance is likely to be apocalyptic.
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Crude Oil Drops on Global Recession Fears.
Brent crude futures were down $1.09, or 1.63%, at $65.78 a barrel, as of 1522 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.15, or 1.82%, to $61.87 a barrel. The U.S.-China trade war is dominating investor sentiment in moving oil prices, superseding nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, and discord within the OPEC+ coalition. Markets have been rocked by conflicting signals from the U.S. over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that threatens to sap global growth.
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April 25, 2025
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Consumer Confidence Dives on Tariff Fears.
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.2 this month. While that was an improvement from a reading of 50.8 two weeks ago, the index was down sharply from 57.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the final index reading unchanged at 50.8.
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China Relaxes Some Tariffs,
in a modest easing of the trade war. China's government is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports, including medical equipment and industrial chemicals like ethane. Authorities are also discussing waiving the tariff for plane leases, as Chinese carriers pay leasing fees to third-party companies to use some jets. Stocks didn’t care.
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New Home Sales Jump,
in March. The median price of a new home sold is down 7.5% YOY, thanks to greater demand for lower-priced homes. Interest rates delivered a short-term dip in March, which they gave back in April. Sales are fading in April as fears over the economy grow.
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Amazon Beats,
after the company topped Wall Street estimates and showed growth in its advertising and search business. The company suggested that it’s too soon to tally the impact of Trump’s tariffs, but the ending of the de minimis loophole could create a “slight headwind” to its advertising business. The interesting number was Amazon's estimate of a potential market size of 4 billion rides a year for its Waymo autonomous driving taxi service.
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Apple to Move All iPhone Production to India.
It is a move that has been underway for some time due to China’s soaring labor costs. Since I began covering China in the early 1970s, China's average annualized income has risen from $300 a year to $16,000, up 5,300%.
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