Archive
Hot Tips
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September 10, 2025
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Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High,
up +1.21% in September, 55.01% year to date, and 806.90% since inception 18 years ago. Exposure to interest-sensitive financials just made my months. The harder I work, the luckier I get.
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Producer Price Index Falls,
for the first time since April. US wholesale inflation unexpectedly declined in August for the first time in four months, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The producer price index decreased 0.1% from a month earlier, and July’s figure was revised down, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out on Wednesday. From the year before, the PPI rose 2.6%. Bonds rose on the news.
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Oracle Soars by 33%,
after the company pointed to a demand surge for its cloud services from AI firms, underscoring its deeper push into the backbone of artificial intelligence systems. The surge in Oracle's cloud business reflects a broader shift in the industry, with companies such as OpenAI and xAI scrambling to secure massive computing capacity needed to stay ahead in the AI race by boosting spending to hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Buy (ORCL) on dips.
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Gold Hits Yet Another New High,
on U.S. rate cut hopes and Fed tensions. Gold hit a record high above $3,600 an ounce on Tuesday, spurred by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, concerns about Federal Reserve independence and robust demand from investors and central banks. Having hit a record high at $3,673.95 a troy ounce, spot gold was trading around $3,637.39 by 1524 GMT for a gain of more than 38% so far this year. Buy (GLD), (B), and (NEM) on dips.
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Mortgage Demand Hits Three-Year High.
A sharp drop in mortgage interest rates finally got some homebuyers off the fence. It also helped more current homeowners save on their monthly payments. Total mortgage application volume jumped 9.2% last week compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. The week's results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.
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September 9, 2025
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2025 Payrolls are Marked Down an Incredible 911,000,
indicating that the economy is far weaker than thought. US job growth was far less robust in the year through March than previously reported, adding to mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the government’s preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. The final figures are due early next year. Before the report, the government’s payroll data indicated employers added nearly 1.8 million total jobs in the year through March on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or an average of 149,000 per month. The revision showed average monthly job growth was roughly half that.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is in Crisis.
A third of high-level roles at the agency that produces marquee numbers on US jobs and inflation are vacant, according to the BLS website. While the commissioner role has been temporarily filled, a range of other leadership positions that oversee various aspects of employment statistics and regional field operations sit empty. As a result, the accuracy, timeliness, and reliability of government data are in free fall.
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Boeing Jet Deliveries are Surging.
The company delivered 57 commercial aircraft in August, its best performance for the month since 2018, in the latest sign of steadying factory operations as the US planemaker targets faster production rates. The tally, which included 43 of Boeing’s 737 family of jets, is the second-highest of the year and marks an uptick from July, according to data posted Tuesday on the company’s website. August’s results underscore Boeing’s recent improvements in stabilizing its factories as the manufacturer prepares to ask regulators for permission to return output of the best-selling jet to pre-COVID levels.
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US Container Imports Rise in August,
as the last of the Christmas shipments are completed. U.S. imports of containerized goods rose 1.6% year-over-year in August, even as volume from China and other key suppliers tumbled amid uncertainty over the US trade policy.
U.S. seaports handled 2.5 million 20-foot equivalent units of cargo last month, down from a near-record 2.6 million TEUs in July. A decline is expected ahead.
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Australia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Tops $166 Billion,
as it pared back its U.S. market exposure to boost investments in Germany and Japan. The fund delivered a 12.2% return in the year ended June 30, which the Future Fund said was double its government-mandated target of 6.1%. The portfolio update for the June quarter, published on Tuesday, showed the Future Fund now had A$65.13 billion invested in developed markets, accounting for a quarter of the fund's total investments. It was up from A$46.83 billion at the same time in 2024.
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September 8, 2025
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Is the AI Bull Market Over?
Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts warned investors that the artificial intelligence (AI) trade could cool off. The analysts cite AI-focused capital expenditure (CapEx) peaks and enterprise plays falling short, especially given AI stocks' high valuations. These themes are expected to be in focus during Goldman's upcoming Communicopia and Tech Conference.
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Robinhood (HOOD) Joins S&P 500.
It’s a great play in Millennial Traders and market volume. (HOOD)’s entry was delayed because of its close association with crypto.
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Health & Human Services to Badmouth Tylenol,
with an internet conspiracy theory claiming it causes autism. Kenvue (KVUE), a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) spinoff and current Tylenol maker and owner, saw its shares dive 14%. Out with science, in with fiction. It’s another bill in the china shop move by the government.
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Broadcom Scores $10 Billion Chip Order,
the largest in history, popping the share by 10%. The deal solidifies the company's role as a leading custom chip provider amid Big Tech's push to diversify beyond Nvidia's pricey and supply-constrained artificial intelligence processors. One of the top AI providers is thought to be the customer.
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Tesla EV Market Share Falls to 38%,
from 80%. General Motors has jumped from zero to 15% but is losing more money. The decline highlights the threat from automakers ramping up EV incentives at a difficult time for the industry. Analysts expect an EV sales bump to continue through September in the United States, then drop when federal tax credits expire at the end of the month, raising financial pressure on Tesla and other automakers.
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September 5, 2025
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The Mad Hedge September Traders & Investors Summit is On!
The Fed has stopped raising interest rates, inflation is falling, and tech stocks are on fire! What should you do about it?
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Get the tools to build an outstanding performance for your own portfolio.
Best of all, by signing up, you will automatically have a chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes. You can attend for free!
Listening to this webinar will change your life! To register, please click here. -
Nonfarm Payroll Collapses,
in August, to only 22,000, far below the 75,000 estimate and the 353,000 from the beginning of 2024. The Headline Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a four-year high. It’s the worst report since the Pandemic. The stagflationary economy marches on. Every jobs report from here on may be a disappointment with the government firing over 300,000, hitting the numbers, and AI destroying jobs at an epic pace. Who is Trump going to fire this time?
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Elon Musk Lands $1 trillion Pay Package.
But Musk must sell 20 million Teslas, 1 million robots, and take the company above $2 trillion in market cap to get that paycheck, which would come in the form of new share issues. Elon already owns 20% of Tesla.
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Demand for Industrial Space Hits 15-Year Low.
The big reshoring isn’t happening. Just 27 million square feet of industrial space was absorbed in the first half of this year, and demand fell by 11.3 million in the second quarter alone — the first quarterly drop since 2010 — according to an August report from NAIOP, a commercial real estate development association. Since the uncertainty is likely to continue through the end of this year, NAIOP projects that net absorption will be "nearly flat" over the second half of this year.
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Gold Hits Another High of $3,553.
Attacks on the Fed are leading to lower interest rate prospects, which is creating huge demand for all dollar alternatives, especially gold and silver. I maintain my target of $5,000 an ounce.
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September 4, 2025
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ADP Comes in Weak.
U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market. Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That's below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month. Following a political appointment, the new head of the BLS, more attention is being focused on private data sources.
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Weekly jobless claims increase 8,000 to 237,000,
a three-month high. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, offering further evidence that labor market conditions were softening. Job growth has shifted into stall speed, with economists blaming sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.
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Sin City is Slowing Down.
Las Vegas has seen visitation decline for seven consecutive months, with the most recent report from July showing a 12% decline year over year. MGM and Las Vegas more broadly had posted several years of growth in visitation, room rates, and profits before this year's slowdown. The Las Vegas slump could be a canary in the coal mine for U.S. travel more broadly, as it does seem to be a leading indicator. And the industry as a whole is facing some troubling obstacles.
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The US Yield Curve is Steepening.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve, a crucial barometer of how the economy is doing, has steepened on fears of mounting public debt, President Donald Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, and his aggressive tariff policies.
The shift has direct implications for banks' net interest income and shapes their lending decisions, since banks borrow short-term and lend long-term, relying on the spread between the two for profits. Bad news for the economy and the stock market is coming.
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ISM Services Rises,
to 52 in August 2025 from 50.1 in July, beating forecasts of 51. The reading pointed to the highest expansion in the services sector in six months, driven by faster growth rates for business activity (55 vs 52.6), new orders (56 vs 50.3), and inventories (53.2 vs 51.8). Offsetting these positive indicators, however, are a continued contraction in employment (46.5 vs 46.4), a 16-year low for backlog of orders (40.4 vs 44.3), and elevated prices (69.2 vs 69.9).
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