Archive

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Hits the Lowest on Record.

The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month, and it plunged nearly 30% from a year ago. Economists were caught off guard. Those polled had expected a slight month-to-month increase for a reading of 54.2. That’s what happens when people’s stocks plunge and they can’t fly anywhere.

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Flights Delays Top 10,000,

as airport chaos continues from the government shutdown. Airlines canceled more than 2,700 U.S. flights. Major airlines were dealing with a third day of government-mandated flight cuts, along with rising air traffic controller absences, which have caused thousands of delays and cancellations. Delta Air Lines (DAL) was especially hard hit, cancelling or delaying 52% of its mainline flights on Sunday.

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Charles Schwab Buys Forge Global for $660 Million,

the private marketplace for shares. The price offers an eye-popping 75% premium for the shares. The move follows Morgan Stanley’s acquisition of EquityZen, a close competitor. The platforms give access to private equity deals for high-net-worth individuals.

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Gold Jumps 2%,

on the end of the government shutdown hopes. Gold rose more than 2% to touch $4,100 per ounce, its highest level in two weeks, after the Senate advanced a bill to end the shutdown as early as this week. Buy (GLD) on dips.

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ADP Drops 12,000 Private Sector Jobs Last Week.

U.S. firms were shedding more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October, payroll processor ADP said on Tuesday in its latest real-time estimate of job market trends. Though the ADP Report last week estimated the U.S. overall added 42,000 jobs in October versus the month before, the new estimates show how hiring trends are evolving on a week-to-week basis - in this case, pointing to further weakening in a labor market being closely monitored by Fed policymakers.

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Elon Musk Bags $1 Trillion Package,

after 75% of shareholders approved, but I doubt he’ll ever get it. He may hit one benchmark, but not all. A win for Musk was widely expected as the billionaire was allowed to vote his roughly 15% stake after the automaker moved to Texas from Delaware. Excluding Musk's influence, the majority was small enough to warrant review of CEO pay by the board at a typical company. Avoid Tesla (TSLA) for now.

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October Job Cuts Hit 22-Year High,

according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Job cuts for the month totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. This has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.

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US Extends Critical Metal Designation to Copper, Coal, and Uranium,

along with seven other minerals, no doubt lending price support here. The list serves as a blueprint for Washington's push to secure supplies of materials needed for defense, manufacturing, and clean energy technologies. It determines which projects qualify for federal incentives, informs national stockpiling and research priorities, and signals to private investors where the government sees long-term strategic value.

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US Headline Unemployment Rises to 4.4%,

according to the Chicago Fed. The bank has been providing twice-monthly estimates of the jobless rate since shortly before a now record-long federal government shutdown cut off the flow of published reports on the economy from the BLS, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Census Bureau. The last U.S. jobless figure published by the BLS for August put the rate at 4.3% - the highest since October 2021, when it was 4.5%.

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DoorDash Craters 23%,

missing analyst expectations and said it expects to spend "several hundred million dollars" on new initiatives and development in 2026. DoorDash said it is developing a new global tech platform that progressed in 2025 but is expected to accelerate in 2026, noting the direct and opportunity costs in the near term. The company announced its DOT autonomous delivery robot in September.

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US Cuts 10% of All Flights,

at 40 major airports in response to the government shutdown and the lack of air traffic controllers. The drastic plan sent airlines scrambling to make significant reductions in flights in just 36 hours, and passengers flooded airline customer service hotlines with concerns about air travel in the coming days. It will be a big hit for the economy and the stock market. The Volatility Index hit $20.

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Apple Cuts Deal with Google.

Apple plans to use a 1.2 trillion-parameter artificial intelligence model developed by Alphabet's Google to help power a revamp of its Siri voice assistant. The companies are finalizing a deal that would have Apple pay about $1 billion a year for access to Google's technology. The iPhone maker will use Google's Gemini model as a stopgap until its own systems are ready, Bloomberg reported. The model's 1.2 trillion parameters, a measure of AI model complexity, would dwarf Apple's current systems.

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Snap Shares Rocket 25% on Perplexity Deal.

AI startup Perplexity will pay Snap $400 million over one year in cash and equity, with revenue contributions expected from 2026. The integration will offer verifiable answers to users' questions within the Snapchat app.

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Robinhood Beats,

but the shares fell 3%, topping third-quarter profit estimates on Wednesday as retail traders shrugged off bubble fears, and the online brokerage announced the retirement of its longtime finance chief. The results suggest that small investors seized opportunities presented by the momentum in the markets and drove up trading volumes in crypto, options, and equities. Buy (HOOD) on dips.

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UPS Deliveries Slow Worldwide,

in the wake of the shutdown of its Kentucky hub after a fatal crash. It looks like an engine fell off after takeoff. No pilot can beat that.

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ADP Adds 42,000 Jobs.

Private employment increased by 42,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised decline of 29,000 in September, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would rise by 28,000 jobs after a previously reported drop of 32,000 in September.

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China Rushes to Top Up Oil Reserves,

taking advantage of multiyear low prices caused by the current glut. China has spent months building up its oil reserves. That might come in handy in the wake of the new sanctions the U.S. recently imposed on Russian crude. During the first nine months of the year, the world’s second-largest economy imported on average more than 11 million barrels of oil a day, an amount above the daily production of Saudi Arabia, according to official customs data. Analysts estimate 1 million to 1.2 million of those barrels were stashed in reserves each day.

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S&P Global Services PMI Comes in Weak,

at 54.8, down from 55.2. U.S. services sector activity picked up in October amid a solid increase in new orders, but subdued employment pointed to lackluster labor market conditions against the backdrop of economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs on imports. Not a major data point, but we’ll take whatever crumbs we can get during the government shutdown.

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Hedge Funds Dumping Stocks at Fastest Rate in Two Years.

Data compiled by Bank of America shows hedge funds and other large investors are dumping tech stocks at the fastest pace since July 2023. Specifically, the bank looked at net buying and selling activity within the sector on a weekly basis as a percentage of market capitalization. BofA added that net technology single-stock sales topped $5 billion last week, by far the (SPY) sector with the most selling. Those sales have been reflected in the broader market’s recent moves.

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AMD Beats,

but the stock falls anyway. The company earned an adjusted $1.20 per share on revenue of $9.25 billion. Sales increased 36% from this time last year. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected earnings of $1.16 per share and $8.74 billion in revenue. But the company sees an adjusted gross margin of 54.5% for its current quarter, meeting Street Account’s consensus of 54.5%.

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Palantir Beats, but the Stock Tanks,

repeating the pattern of previous tech announcements. Palantir shares slid roughly 9% on Tuesday even after the software company beat Wall Street estimates for the third quarter and offered upbeat guidance. Investors have grown increasingly wary of lofty valuations in AI-linked names. Palantir's stock, which was up 173% for the year heading into Tuesday's trading, has a forward price-earnings ratio of 228X. EO Alex Karp ranted against short sellers, calling out specifically Michael Burry after a filing revealed the investor of "The Big Short" fame had bets against the artificial intelligence software company. 

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Bank of America Downgrades Gaming Stocks,

DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), warning that online sports betting faces a rocky road ahead as competition from prediction markets grows and regulatory uncertainty mounts. BofA cut its rating for DraftKings and Flutter from buy to hold and slashed its price targets for the stocks by 23% and 27%, respectively. The bank now has a price of $250 per share for Flutter, suggesting 8% upside from Monday’s close. It sees DraftKings hitting $35 per share, indicating about a 14% gain from current levels.

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There’s a Bidding War Going on for Metsera (MTSR),

between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk in a step up in the obesity market. Novo's revised offer brings the deal value to about $10 billion, while Pfizer is now willing to shell out $8.1 billion.

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Starbucks Sell China Subsidiary,

to Boyu Capital in a deal that values the business at $4 billion - one of the largest divestments of a China unit by a global consumer company in recent years. The Seattle-based coffee chain said the funds from investment firm Boyu will help it jump-start growth in the world's second-largest economy, where local rivals like Luckin and Cotti now offer lattes for 9.9 yuan ($1.40) - less than a third of Starbucks' prices. Avoid (SBUX).

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Chile’s Codelco Announced Record Profits,

off the back of the copper boom, which reached all-time high prices. The state-owned company posted a pre-tax profit of $606.9 million in the nine months to September, slightly below the $612.2 million reported in the same period last year. The miner said its own output totaled 937,000 metric tons, up 2.1% from the same period last year.

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