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Hot Tips
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November 13, 2025
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No Economic Data for October.
Data on the U.S. unemployment rate for October may never be available after the weeks-long federal government shutdown, White House economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said as federal workers returned to work. The household survey wasn't conducted in October, so we're going to get half the employment report. We'll get the jobs part, but we won't get the unemployment rate. And that'll just be for one month. We probably will never actually know for sure what the unemployment rate was in October.
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Walt Disney Disappoints,
a slate of big-budget films, including a new Avatar picture, will weigh on results for the first quarter of its new fiscal year. Revenue for the fourth quarter was a little changed at $22.5 billion, falling below the $22.8 billion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings came to $1.11 a share in the period ended Sept. 27, excluding some items, beating estimates of $1.07. Avoid (DIS).
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The CPI Rose by 0.3% in October,
the same as September, maybe, according to private sources. We’ll never know for sure since the government didn’t collect the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will need some time to measure inflation after the latest, record-breaking lapse in federal funding.
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Tesla Recalls 10,500 units of its Powerwall 2,
battery power systems in the U.S. for fire and burn hazards after receiving 22 reports of overheating. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said the recall covers systems that may fail and overheat, raising the risk of serious injury or death. The $7,500 Powerwall 2 is a residential energy-storage unit that integrates with solar-panel systems, storing electricity for self-consumption, shifting usage to lower-cost periods, and providing backup in grid outages.
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Bitcoin Dives, While Other Crypto are Rising.
That’s because of a headlong rush out of Bitcoin into stablecoins, the new hot thing. Markets are stabilizing… as liquidity cautiously rebuilds across digital and traditional assets, Iliya Kalchev. Across markets, risk appetite is returning—but measuredly so. Avoid (MSTR).
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November 12, 2025
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Government Shutdown to End this Weekend,
which the stock market clearly sniffed out with a monster mid-day rally last Friday. Open the cash tap, with withheld $100 billion in government spending over the past month, triggering a market correction. It may take up to two weeks to get the airlines back to normal.
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Anthropic to Invest $50 Billion in AI Data Centers.
The company behind Claude AI models said it would set up the facilities with infrastructure provider Fluidstack in Texas and New York, with more sites coming online in the future. The data centers are custom-built for Anthropic.
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Auto Loan Defaults Hit Record High.
The share of subprime borrowers at least 60 days behind on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October, the highest level on record, according to Fitch Ratings data going back to the early 1990s. The ”K” shaped economy is getting worse.
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US to Stop Minting Pennies,
as they cost more to produce than their face value. The move is highly inflationary. Do you think retailers will round up, or round down? Another small short-term gain in exchange for a very high long-term cost. The Treasury lost $118 million in 2024 minting pennies, losing $84 million. But the inflation rate will rise by 0.50% as a result. A penny saved, a pound foolish?
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Waymo Robotaxis Expand to Freeway Use in San Francisco,
representing the most advanced use of the vehicles. Los Angeles and Phoenix are also included. Until now, they have been limited to surface streets while Beta testing. Waymo is the only company that runs a paid robotaxi service in the U.S. without safety drivers or in-vehicle monitors. It has a robotaxi fleet with more than 1,500 vehicles. Waymo is currently providing one million rides a month throughout its network.
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November 11, 2025
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Hits the Lowest on Record.
The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month, and it plunged nearly 30% from a year ago. Economists were caught off guard. Those polled had expected a slight month-to-month increase for a reading of 54.2. That’s what happens when people’s stocks plunge and they can’t fly anywhere.
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Flights Delays Top 10,000,
as airport chaos continues from the government shutdown. Airlines canceled more than 2,700 U.S. flights. Major airlines were dealing with a third day of government-mandated flight cuts, along with rising air traffic controller absences, which have caused thousands of delays and cancellations. Delta Air Lines (DAL) was especially hard hit, cancelling or delaying 52% of its mainline flights on Sunday.
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Charles Schwab Buys Forge Global for $660 Million,
the private marketplace for shares. The price offers an eye-popping 75% premium for the shares. The move follows Morgan Stanley’s acquisition of EquityZen, a close competitor. The platforms give access to private equity deals for high-net-worth individuals.
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Gold Jumps 2%,
on the end of the government shutdown hopes. Gold rose more than 2% to touch $4,100 per ounce, its highest level in two weeks, after the Senate advanced a bill to end the shutdown as early as this week. Buy (GLD) on dips.
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ADP Drops 12,000 Private Sector Jobs Last Week.
U.S. firms were shedding more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October, payroll processor ADP said on Tuesday in its latest real-time estimate of job market trends. Though the ADP Report last week estimated the U.S. overall added 42,000 jobs in October versus the month before, the new estimates show how hiring trends are evolving on a week-to-week basis - in this case, pointing to further weakening in a labor market being closely monitored by Fed policymakers.
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November 7, 2025
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Elon Musk Bags $1 Trillion Package,
after 75% of shareholders approved, but I doubt he’ll ever get it. He may hit one benchmark, but not all. A win for Musk was widely expected as the billionaire was allowed to vote his roughly 15% stake after the automaker moved to Texas from Delaware. Excluding Musk's influence, the majority was small enough to warrant review of CEO pay by the board at a typical company. Avoid Tesla (TSLA) for now.
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October Job Cuts Hit 22-Year High,
according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Job cuts for the month totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. This has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.
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US Extends Critical Metal Designation to Copper, Coal, and Uranium,
along with seven other minerals, no doubt lending price support here. The list serves as a blueprint for Washington's push to secure supplies of materials needed for defense, manufacturing, and clean energy technologies. It determines which projects qualify for federal incentives, informs national stockpiling and research priorities, and signals to private investors where the government sees long-term strategic value.
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US Headline Unemployment Rises to 4.4%,
according to the Chicago Fed. The bank has been providing twice-monthly estimates of the jobless rate since shortly before a now record-long federal government shutdown cut off the flow of published reports on the economy from the BLS, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Census Bureau. The last U.S. jobless figure published by the BLS for August put the rate at 4.3% - the highest since October 2021, when it was 4.5%.
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DoorDash Craters 23%,
missing analyst expectations and said it expects to spend "several hundred million dollars" on new initiatives and development in 2026. DoorDash said it is developing a new global tech platform that progressed in 2025 but is expected to accelerate in 2026, noting the direct and opportunity costs in the near term. The company announced its DOT autonomous delivery robot in September.
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November 6, 2025
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US Cuts 10% of All Flights,
at 40 major airports in response to the government shutdown and the lack of air traffic controllers. The drastic plan sent airlines scrambling to make significant reductions in flights in just 36 hours, and passengers flooded airline customer service hotlines with concerns about air travel in the coming days. It will be a big hit for the economy and the stock market. The Volatility Index hit $20.
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Apple Cuts Deal with Google.
Apple plans to use a 1.2 trillion-parameter artificial intelligence model developed by Alphabet's Google to help power a revamp of its Siri voice assistant. The companies are finalizing a deal that would have Apple pay about $1 billion a year for access to Google's technology. The iPhone maker will use Google's Gemini model as a stopgap until its own systems are ready, Bloomberg reported. The model's 1.2 trillion parameters, a measure of AI model complexity, would dwarf Apple's current systems.
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Snap Shares Rocket 25% on Perplexity Deal.
AI startup Perplexity will pay Snap $400 million over one year in cash and equity, with revenue contributions expected from 2026. The integration will offer verifiable answers to users' questions within the Snapchat app.
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Robinhood Beats,
but the shares fell 3%, topping third-quarter profit estimates on Wednesday as retail traders shrugged off bubble fears, and the online brokerage announced the retirement of its longtime finance chief. The results suggest that small investors seized opportunities presented by the momentum in the markets and drove up trading volumes in crypto, options, and equities. Buy (HOOD) on dips.
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UPS Deliveries Slow Worldwide,
in the wake of the shutdown of its Kentucky hub after a fatal crash. It looks like an engine fell off after takeoff. No pilot can beat that.
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