Archive
Hot Tips
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October 16, 2025
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October 17 Options expiration is Tomorrow.
All three Mad Hedge positions are expiring at max profit. With options trading volumes skyrocketing, the 4:15 PM EST close out is going to be a thriller.
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Fed Beige Book Comes in Pretty Dour,
reflecting sentiments from their meeting six weeks ago. The outlook changed little. Consumer spending is weakening, EV sales are up ahead of the expiration of the tax subsidies, and international travel is down big. High-end consumers are still spending. Agriculture, energy, and construction are all down. Labor demand is weak. Not exactly a report to run up the flagpole and salute.
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Banking is Entering a Golden Age,
with a major re-rating upward on the way. Credit remains solid. Credit quality is better than expected and improving, so default risk is falling. Private credit exposure remains a risk, which has seen ballistic growth over the past four years. Stocks are at highs, and consolidation is working. Merger approval time has shrunk from 16 months to 6 months. Managements are really positive about the theoretical outlooks. Banks are still 30% cheaper than the S&P 500, and interest rates are falling. Upside momentum lives.
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Apple is Seeing a Modest Turnaround in China,
its most important market, thanks to government subsidies for its lowest-end iPhone 17s. Tim Cook is trying to move as much of its production to India and Vietnam as possible. Only 9 million iPhones a year are coming from China out of 56.8 million sold in Q3. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
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Zions Bank (ZION) Takes a Big Hit,
on fraudulent loans. The shares sank by 6.4% after it disclosed a $50 million charge-off for a loan underwritten by its wholly owned subsidiary, California Bank & Trust in San Diego. These black swans from small banks can hit at any time, which is why I avoid them.
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October 14, 2025
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The Trade War Escalates,
as China imposes a raft of new retaliatory fees. The United States and China on Tuesday began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies. A return to an all-out trade war appeared imminent last week, after China announced a major expansion of its rare earths export controls and President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to triple digits.
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Goldman Sachs Q3 Earnings Rock,
beating all expectations. The firm reported $2.66 billion in investment banking fees, a 42% surge on the same period last year, and revenue of $15.18 billion, its largest haul for that quarter in its history. The firm reported $2.66 billion in investment banking fees, a 42% surge on the same period last year, the bank said Tuesday. That pace beat rivals and helped the company as a whole report revenue of $15.18 billion, its largest haul for that quarter in its history and its third highest overall for all quarters. Buy (GS) on dips.
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JP Morgan Earnings Beat.
Morgan beat analysts' estimates for trading and investment-banking fees, driven by a pickup in dealmaking and underwriting, with markets revenue climbing 25% and investment-banking fees rising 16%. The bank added $810 million to its reserves for potentially soured loans, citing loan growth and updates to macroeconomic variables, with most of the addition tied to card services. Buy (JPM) on dips.
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The Oil Glut Worsens,
as a long-anticipated oil surplus is finally starting to emerge and is likely to depress prices, some of the world’s top commodity traders said. Brent oil has slumped 11% since late last month as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — as well as nations outside the group — pour barrels into a market that’s widely viewed as facing an excess. The forward curve that traders use to gauge market strength is also painting a bearish picture in the US next year. Avoid (USO).
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IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast,
from 3.2% for 2025, 3.1% for 2026. Firms are coping with substantially higher tariffs better than expected, despite rising inflation. The U.S.-China tariff war escalation is a 'significant risk' to global growth-IMF chief economist.
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October 13, 2025
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Administration Walks Back the Presidents Incendiary Tweet,
which caused stocks to lose $2 trillion in value on Friday, saying that “It could take a hundred years for a 100% tariff to be imposed on China.” The Dow rallied by 600 points. The president can’t afford another 20% crash. The last one caused supporters to abandon him like rats jumping a sinking ship. Stick with the main stories: AI and hyper liquidity.
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London Bullion Exchange Runs Out of Silver for Delivery,
causing prices to go ballistic. Spot silver climbed as much as 3.7% above $52 an ounce, exceeding the old Hunt Brothers 1980 $50 high, while gold traded near $4,100, building on a record-breaking run of eight weekly gains. Platinum and palladium also jumped, amid signs that market stresses caused by surging investor demand are starting to spread to other precious metals. Silver could reach $100 an ounce in 2026.
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Gold to Hit $5,000 an Ounce in 2026,
says the Bank of America. Gold surged above $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever on October 8. Gold prices scaled to another record high at $4,079.62 on Monday as investors revved up their safe-haven bets after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against China, while expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts added to the metal's allure. Buy (GLD) on dips.
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Administration Cancels America’s Solar Project,
planned by NextEra (NEE). The 6-Gigawatt Esmeralda 7 project was to provide power for 2 million homes, just as the US heads into an electricity crisis. The president’s war on alternative energy continues.
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Trio Win Nobel Prize in Economics,
for writing about “Creative Destruction.” Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt won the prize. Their research explains how technology gives rise to new products and production methods that replace old ones, resulting in a better standard of living, health, and quality of life. It looks like I’ll be meeting them at a future meeting.
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October 10, 2025
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Trump China Trade Threats Tank Markets,
in response to their rare earth export restrictions that sent prices soaring yesterday. China has also cut US soybean purchases this year from $12 billion to zero. Trump is threatening massive retaliation, which took the S&P 500 down 2% in minutes and the Dow Average down 900. The Volatility Index ($VIX) soared by 40% to $22.5 in seconds. Gold jumped. Like all geopolitical shocks, this will be short-term and is a great buying opportunity. Buy the dip in everything. You play with fire, you get burned. Trump can’t afford another “Liberation Day” and the 20% stock market decline it brought. Buy everything that was winning until this morning.
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I Sold All my Gold and Silver at the All-Time High on Wednesday.
The rally up until then exactly matched the size of the rally in the spring, or $500 an ounce, a great time to take profits. Gold ETF inflows hit a one-month low of only $2 billion. Looking to get back in on a 5% correction with more in-the-money call spreads, so the time decay is working for me in case we get another multi-month flat line like we did for four months during April to August. My medium-term target is still $5,000.
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September Consumer Price Index to be Released on October 24,
after the Bureau of Labor Statistics staff were called back from the government shutdown. The BLS is currently leaderless. The Fed is now flying blind, and the government doesn’t want to do anything to delay the next interest rate cut on October 28.
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U.S. Consumer Sentiment was Steady in October,
according to the University of Michigan. Households are appearing to shrug off a partial shutdown of the government, though worries about the labor market and inflation lingered. The Surveys of Consumers on Friday noted that pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers' minds. Interviews with respondents showed little evidence that the shutdown has moved consumers' views of the economy thus far.
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María Corina Machado Wins the Nobel Peace Prize,
not the US president. In a post on social media, Machado dedicated the prize to the Venezuelan people. Machado is the opposition leader in Venezuela, where the US has been conducting an undeclared naval war. White House spokespeople didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
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October 9, 2025
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Fed Minutes Tank Financials,
and all other interest rate-sensitive sectors, indicating that several members voted against an interest rate cut in September. The minutes from the September 16-17 meeting showed that steadily rising inflation, which may accelerate in the months ahead, was the main concern. Several members voted against a rate cut back then. No rate cut at the upcoming October 28-29 meeting might finally give stocks a long-needed correction. That’s why all of my current options positions expire on October 17. Buy all financials on this dip.
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Glencore Gets a $394 Million Copper Subsidy,
from the Australian government to keep operating its Mt. Isa smelter and Townsville mine. Mt Isa is the only copper smelter in the country and is essential for solar panels, wind turbines, and the growth of the power grid. The goal is to reduce reliance on copper imports from China during the coming copper boom.
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Rare Earth Prices Soar on China Supply Clampdown,
fueling market speculation that the Trump administration will move more aggressively to invest in building out a domestic supply chain. Ramco Resources (METC) soared 12%, Energy Fuels (UUUU) surged nearly 8%, USA Rare Earth (USAR) jumped more than 7%, and MP Materials (MP) rallied more than 6%. Most affected are the supplies of Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Europium, and Ytterbium. China supplies 90% of the world’s rare earth magnets, essential for most electronics applications. Every trade war comes with a high price.
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Copper Prices Hit a New High,
as I expected. Copper prices hit $11,000 per metric ton on Thursday, a level not seen in over 16 months, as widespread disruption at mines sparks fears of a shortage of supply and attracts speculative inflows. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.1% to hit the $11,000 mark, within striking distance of its all-time high of $11,104.50 set in May 2024, before pulling back to $10,970. The golden age of copper is here. Buy (FCX) on dips, the world’s largest producer.
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U.S. Imports of Containerized Goods in September Plunge 8.4%,
from the year earlier, including a 22.9% drop in goods from China. It’s another sign of a shrinking US economy. U.S. seaports handled 2.31 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container cargo last month, the third-highest September volume on record despite a decline from last year.
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