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Hot Tips
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20251127
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Fed Beige Book Comes in Unchanged.
The high-end consumer is strong, and the low end is suffering. Food assistance requests are soaring as unemployment increases. AI is replacing entry-level positions, curbing new hiring. Health insurance costs are increasing. Tariffs are crushing margins at small companies.
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Chicago Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Crashes
to 36.4. The index has been recessionary for two years now. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 36.3 in November 2025 from 43.8 in the prior month and against market estimates of 44.3. This was the 24th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024. The sub-indexes of new orders, production and employment all declined. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries went up.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 6,000,
to 216,000. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid lingering economic uncertainty. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended November 22, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.
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US Oil Rigs Count Hit Four Year Low,
U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, with oil rigs dropping to a four-year low, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Wednesday.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 10 to 544 in the week to November 26, the lowest since September.
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Bitcoin May Remain Weak Until Year End.
The declines come amid liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions, with traders pulling out of risk-on investments into risk-off assets such as gold due to mixed economic data and worries about valuations in artificial intelligence stocks. Some long-term bitcoin holders are also selling some of their holdings at this time due to a popular, but controversial, belief that the token’s “halving” schedule dictates its trajectory according to predictable four-year cycles. The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur mid-2028, when the number of blocks hits 1,050,000.
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20251121
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Mad Hedge AI Market Timing Index Hits Seven-month Low at Six,
and the Volatility Index Hit a six-month high at $28, in “STRONG BUY” territory. Many technical services have the market bottoming today or next week, which, because of Thanksgiving, only has 3 ½ trading days. We will likely hit bottom when Bitcoin hits the April low at $77,500 and bounces hard. Bitcoin hit $82,000 last night.
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Some 119,000 Jobs were Gained in September,
but the Unemployment Rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, a 2025 high. That dashed the hope for a Fed interest rate cut in December and prompted a 1,100-point plunge in the Dow Average. Uncertainty is running rampant, increasing market volatility.
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Existing Home Sales Rise 1.2% in October.
Sales of previously owned homes in October rose to 4.1 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were up 1.7% year over year. The inventory of homes for sale fell to 1.52 million units, down 0.7% from September, although still nearly 11% higher than a year earlier. At the current sales pace, there is a 4.4-month supply, still considered lean.
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California Pizza Kitchen Goes Private.
It has been acquired by an investor group led by Consortium Brand Partners and including Todd Boehly's investment firm Eldridge Industries, for under $300 million. The investment represents an opening foray into the restaurant category for Consortium Brand Partners, which owns activewear brand Outdoor Voices, home decor company Jonathan Adler, and lifestyle brand Draper James, which was founded by actress Reese Witherspoon.
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S&P Global US Services Flash PMI Comes in Warm at 54.8,
a four-month high. Manufacturing came in slightly weak. Business activity growth accelerated for a second successive month in November, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen so far this year. Confidence in the year ahead outlook also improved markedly, notably reflecting reduced worries over the political environment and hopes for increased policy support to business.
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20251120
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Nvidia Beats, Forecast Raised,
but only managed a 3% gain in the stock. Its Big Three customers are still buying with both hands. “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,” CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. “The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.” Ales in the data-center segment, which accounts for a majority of Nvidia's revenue, grew to $51.2 billion in the quarter ended October 26. Analysts had expected sales of $48.62 billion, according to LSEG data. Still, analysts and investors widely expected the underlying demand for AI chips, which has powered Nvidia's results since ChatGPT's launch in late 2022, to remain strong. Huang said last month the company has $500 billion in bookings for its advanced chips through 2026.
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Bureau of Labor Statistics Cancels October Jobs Report,
instead incorporating those payroll figures into the November report set to be published after the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year. The leaderless BLS couldn’t collect October household data, which informs key statistics like the unemployment rate, as a result of the record-long government shutdown. The agency, the figures couldn’t be gathered retroactively. The November employment report will be published on Dec. 16, more than a week later than originally scheduled.
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Chile’s (SQM) Expects 25% Lithium Demand Increase in 2026.
Even with EV growth flat, demand for the metal is rising sharply. Buy (SQM) and (ALB) on dips, the largest US lithium producer.
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The Civil War at the Fed.
Federal Reserve officials were at odds during their October meeting over cutting interest rates, divided over whether a stalling labor market or stubborn inflation was a bigger economic threat, minutes released Wednesday showed. While the Federal Open Market Committee approved a cut at the meeting, the path forward looks less certain. Disagreements stretched into the outlook for December, with officials expressing skepticism about the need for an additional reduction that markets had been widely anticipating, with "many" saying that no more cuts are needed at least in 2025.
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Porsche Releases an All-Electric Cayenne SUV.
The 2026 Cayenne EV is capable of a massive 1,139 horsepower, more than anything Tesla has ever produced, 0-60 mph in 2.4 seconds, and up to 1,106 foot-pounds of torque, according to Porsche. A top-end “Turbo Electric” model starts at $163,000 — making it among the highest-priced Porsches on sale. A standard model with less performance starts at $109,000. My last Tesla, a tricked-out Model X P100D, cost $162,500.
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20251119
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Nvidia Earning Out After the Close Today,
and the market will be flatlining until then. Note that the shares are unchanged since the last quarterly earnings three months ago. Analysts largely expect that the company — the largest in the broad-market index — will meaningfully beat Wall Street's expectations and forecast strong sales growth driven by demand for its AI chips and other infrastructure. I’m staying away as most tech stocks have sold off 10% on good earnings announcements.
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Meta Wins FTC Antitrust Trial,
causing a nice pop in the stock. In a memorandum opinion released Tuesday, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., said the FTC failed to prove its argument. The case, initially filed by the FTC five years ago, centered on Meta’s acquisition of WhatsApp and Instagram.
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Netflix Up Sharply on Warners Brothers Discovery Bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery has set a Nov. 20 deadline for first-round bids. The board is expected to meet before Thanksgiving to evaluate the offers and aims to have the process wrapped up by year-end. It looks like a 17% annual growth rate isn’t enough for (NFLX) founder and CEO Reed Hastings. Now he wants to take advantage of Paramount’s forced sale of Warner Bros to buy market share. Warner Bros., with its deep film and TV library, extensive production capabilities, and HBO Max, is an opportunity they would be remiss not to investigate. But (NFLX) on dips.
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$1.2 Trillion Lost in Crypto in Six Weeks,
after Bitcoin bounced off $90,000 last night. The risk-sensitive cryptocurrency has lost all this year's gains and is now around 26% below a peak of $126,000 in October. It was last up nearly 1.9% at $93,532, after slipping as low as $89,286.75. Market participants said a combination of doubts around future U.S. interest rate cuts and the risk-averse mood in broader markets, which have wobbled after a long rally, was dragging down crypto. Avoid all crypto.
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Trump Invasion Threats Prompt Massive Rally in Venezuela Debt Default Bonds,
betting that the ouster of socialist leader Nicolas Maduro will pave the way for an investor-friendly government that quickly cuts a deal to pay back a chunk of the debt. A change in leadership would, in theory, help to unlock Venezuela's oil wealth, setting the country on a more stable footing while setting the table for negotiations over debt restructuring. There’s always a trade somewhere. Who said Trump wouldn’t be good for the market?
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20251118
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Bitcoin Craters Below $90,000 and is Now Down 4% on the Year.
Liquidity, which crypto feeds on, is drying up. Watch Bitcoin even if you don’t play in the crypto space. It’s a great risk indicator, and right now it is shouting “RISK OFF”. Avoid (BTC) and (MSTR), it’s too late to short.
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Major Cloudflare Outage Takes Out Big part of the Internet.
The outage had taken down the websites for everything from the chief US energy regulator, ChatGPT, the New Jersey transit authority, and the social-media platform X. ChatGPT and X were among the services that were back online by 10 a.m. New York time. A Cloudflare spokesperson said the company observed a “spike in unusual traffic” to one of its services around 6:20 a.m. ET, causing some traffic passing through its network to experience errors. The issue was fixed within six hours, according to the company. Avoid (NET).
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Strategy Buys More Bitcoin,
taking its holdings up to 640,418 bitcoin, worth around $70 billion. Strategy Inc. sold €775 million ($898 million) preferred shares at 80 cents on the euro earlier this month. Now, with Bitcoin prices in freefall, the few traders offering prices on the stock are willing to sell at about 78 cents and buy a couple of cents lower, according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the prices were shared privately. Strategy has been doubling down despite the recent crypto rout. The firm bought $835.6 million in Bitcoin in the seven days ended Sunday, the largest purchase by the firm since July. The company appeared to finance the majority of the purchases with the proceeds of the euro preferred offering.
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Jobless Claims Hit Two-Month High.
Continued claims for jobless benefits - those receiving benefits beyond an initial week of relief - rose to 1.957 million in the week ended October 18, updated figures posted to a Labor Department website showed on Tuesday. That was up 10,000 from the prior week and was the highest since early August. It was up notably from the 1.916 million level in the week ended September 13, the last week of data to have been reported prior to the start of the shutdown on October 1.
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Homebuilder Sentiment Comes in Flat.
U.S. homebuilder sentiment remained subdued in November as concerns about the labor market and household finances weighed on demand, contributing to a surge in the share of builders slashing prices to reduce new housing inventory. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index edged up one point to 38 this month. It remained below the 50 breakeven point for the 19th straight month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index unchanged at 37.
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