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Markets Tank on DOJ Criminal Investigation of Fed Governor Jay Powell,
throwing Fed independence out the window. It’s really happening because Powell isn’t lowering interest rates fast enough. Powell was appointed Fed governor by Donald Trump. Good luck finding a new governor when prison time is on the table. Gold (GLD) rose 2% on the news.
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As the US Withdraws, China is Taking Over.
China has become the top provider of capital for new projects around the world, replacing the US. It may be why the Chinese stock market was up 44% last year, and the Chinese Yuan appreciated. Last week, the US resigned from dozens of international organizations. The US has retreated from the international scene except for the three attacks on foreign countries in nine months. Uncertainty reigns supreme.
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Trump to Force 10% Caps on Credit Card Companies,
forcing consumers into the hands of loan sharks, who charge much higher rates. Visa (V), where I was about to issue a trade alert to buy, plunged 5%. Master Card (MA) did the same. American Express (AXP) took an 8% hit.
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Paramount Sues Warner Brothers to Block $82.7 Billion Netflix Deal.
(NFLX) hit a new nine-month low on the news. The David Ellison-led company also said it plans to nominate directors to Warner Bros Discovery's (WBD) board, in one of its most aggressive steps yet to convince shareholders that its hostile $30-per-share cash bid is superior to the $27.75-per-share cash-and-stock offer from Netflix. Avoid (NFLX) for now, even though it is a great company, as it will be stuck in litigation purgatory for a year or two.
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Apple Ties up with Google’s AI to Power an Upgraded Siri.
Apple (AAPL) plans to use a 1.2 trillion-parameter artificial intelligence model developed by Alphabet's Google to help power a revamp of its Siri voice assistant. After an evaluation, the companies are finalizing a deal that would have Apple pay about $1 billion a year for access to Google's technology, the report said. Buy (AAPL) on dips as a big AI announcement is coming.
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US Trade Deficit Hits 15-Year Low.
Tariffs have made imports so expensive that nobody can afford to buy anything anymore. It’s another sign of shrinking standards of living. The US dollar finally caught a bid on the news.
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ADP Comes in Sluggish.
Private sector job creation turned positive in December, though at a bit softer pace than expected, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 41,000 hires for the month, a reversal from the loss of 29,000 in November, providing a positive sign for a labor market that otherwise struggled as 2025 came to a close. Private company payrolls had declined in three of the four months before the December release. It’s further confirmation of a slowing economy.
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Margin Requirements Rise for Gold and Silver,
after the ballistic December performance. Gold is up more than 64% year-to-date, on track for its best annual performance since 1979 and its third straight positive year. The rally has been supported by a multitude of factors, including the impact of US interest rate cuts, tariff tensions, and robust demand from exchange-traded funds and central banks. Silver has far outpaced gold in 2025. The metal, which has endured wild price swings in recent days, is on course for annual gains of nearly 150%. Like gold, this would be silver's best yearly performance since 1979. Silver's price boom has stemmed from a mix of low supply and high demand from India, as well as industrial needs and tariffs. The long-awaited consolidation is here. Avoid (GLD) and (SLV) for the short term.
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California to Raise Taxes on Billionaires,
to offset a billion in funding cuts from Washington. The Billionaire Tax Act, which could be added to the state's general election ballot in November, would impose a one-time tax of 5% on the total wealth of California tax residents whose net worth is $1 billion or more. These people come into the Golden State and leave rich, and this has been going on for decades.
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Weekly Jobless Claims rise 8,000 to 208,000.
Continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.914 million. Worker productivity grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, according to other data from the Labor Department released on Thursday, suggesting a boost from increased artificial intelligence investment was underway. The surge in productivity, which depressed unit labor costs, underscored what economists have termed a jobless economic expansion. It followed on the heels of robust economic growth in the third quarter.
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Stock Market Rockets on Venezuela Attack,
removing uncertainty from the investors. The same thing happened in 1991 when the onset of the first Gulf War ignited stocks but crashed oil. I know a hedge fund that went bust betting the wrong way on oil. Still ahead, an imminent Supreme Court decision on tariffs and a market-destroying impending government shutdown on January 30.
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Gasoline Prices Hit 4-Year Low,
thanks to collapsing crude, which hit $55 a barrel. The average price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, according to AAA. I saw $2.70 a gallon in Nevada. Some early 110 million Americans are expected to make road trips this holiday season.
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Ford Reports Best Sales in Six Years.
Ford Motor on Tuesday said its U.S. vehicle sales last year increased 6%, marking the company’s best annual sales since 2019. The Detroit automaker reported sales of 2.2 million vehicles in 2025, including a 2.7% uptick to more than 545,200 units during the fourth quarter. Avoid (F) as the run is done.
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Gold to Hit $4,800 an Ounce by End 2026,
says Morgan Stanley. In a note dated January 5, it also said the attack on Venezuela over the weekend was likely to attract buyers to gold as a safe haven, but did not specify this as a reason for its $4,800/oz forecast. Traders view gold as a safe store of value during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil that also performs well in low-interest-rate environments when its non-yielding nature is less of a disadvantage financially. For silver, the bank said 2025 marked a peak deficit, adding China's export license requirements, which have taken effect from the start of this year, added to the "upside risk for silver".
Silver recorded its strongest annual gain in 2025, surging 147%, on rising industrial and investor appetite and a structural market deficit. Buy (GLD) and (SLV) on dips.
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Tesla EV Sales Drop 9% in 2025,
and 29% in the UK in December, as Chinese brands take over the global market. Tesla has become a lagging No.2 in the EV scene. BYD UK registrations surged nearly 5-fold last month, according to New AutoMotive. Sell (TSLA).
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The Jobs Market is in Freefall.
The U.S. economy added only 64,000 jobs in November. But the unemployment rate ticked higher to a five-year high at 4.6%. On top of that, the Nonfarm Payroll Report fell by 105,000 in October. The government is mixing up the data so comparisons can’t be made. The stock market is confused.
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Inflation Cools with a 2.7% CPI,
for October and November combined. Core 2.6% came in at 2.6%. Many data points were missing thanks to the longest government shutdown in history, where data was just not collected by laid-off government workers. It is a real apples-and-oranges comparison, almost useless. Tariffs left a big footprint.
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GDP Grows at an Annualized 4.3%,
in Q3, a two-year high. The figure received a huge one-time only boost from the collapse of imports triggered by tariffs, which are subtracted from the GDP calculation. The government is going to have to find another source of growth in 2026. You only get an import collapse once. An impending government shutdown on January 30 won’t help.
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S&P Case Shiller Gains Modestly in October,
up a weak 1.4%. Gains were seen in Chicago (+5.8%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York City (+5.0%). Losses were seen in eight cities, with Tampa (-4.2%), Phoenix (-1.5%0, and Dallas (-1.5%) posting the worst numbers. Real Estate was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 in 2025. With rates at these levels, first-time buyers have to save for seven years to make the down payment.
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Fed Minutes Promise More Fed Rate Cuts.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2026 Sarasota, Florida Strategy Luncheon
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Sarasota, Florida, on Wednesday, January 14, 2026. The cost of the luncheon will be $277.
An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive Sarasota hotel. The precise location will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. Mad Hedge guests will be assigned their own dedicated table in a ballroom with 200 other participants.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
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