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Mad Hedge Black Friday Sale.
Please take advantage of our once-a-year Mad Hedge Black Friday event. Get our market-beating Global Trading Dispatch service for just $897 for six months. We have made a profit of +61% so far in 2025, with no down months, have you? Offer valid for today only. To take advantage of this incredible offer, please click here.
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Mad Hedge Hits 61% Profit in 2025.
That takes our average annualized return for 18 years to a sky-high +50.82% compared to only +27.49% for the S&P 500. Our gain since inception is +812.92. The big winners this year? Gold (GLD), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Palantir (PLTR).
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CME Crashes on Data Center Failure.
A data center in Aurora, Illinois that serves as the primary hub of digital operations for CME Group Inc. experienced a malfunction in its cooling system, taking down virtually all CME futures and options trading platforms. The facility, which is operated by CyrusOne, is a critical piece of infrastructure to global markets, with at least $25 quadrillion of notional trade volume passing through it every day. The incident has raised questions about the design of the cooling system and the disaster recovery plans in place, with experts noting that data centers of this type typically have redundancy to avoid such problems with power and cooling. A preview of our future?
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2026 will be a Blowout Year for Copper.
Costas Bintas, the high-profile head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group, Ltd., has renewed his bullish prediction for copper prices as he warned that a rush to ship metal to the US risks draining the rest of the world’s inventories. Traders have been ramping up shipments to the US in recent weeks to once again capitalize on a big premium for metal on New York’s Comex exchange, fueled by ongoing uncertainty about the potential for future tariffs. Buy (FCX) on dips.
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US Dollar Dives as Fed Cut Looms.
The U.S. dollar headed for its steepest weekly drop in four months on Thursday as investors bet on further monetary easing. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.05% at 99.58, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July. It is currently down 0.60% on a weekly basis.
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20251127
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Fed Beige Book Comes in Unchanged.
The high-end consumer is strong, and the low end is suffering. Food assistance requests are soaring as unemployment increases. AI is replacing entry-level positions, curbing new hiring. Health insurance costs are increasing. Tariffs are crushing margins at small companies.
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Chicago Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Crashes
to 36.4. The index has been recessionary for two years now. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 36.3 in November 2025 from 43.8 in the prior month and against market estimates of 44.3. This was the 24th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024. The sub-indexes of new orders, production and employment all declined. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries went up.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 6,000,
to 216,000. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid lingering economic uncertainty. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended November 22, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.
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US Oil Rigs Count Hit Four Year Low,
U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, with oil rigs dropping to a four-year low, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Wednesday.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 10 to 544 in the week to November 26, the lowest since September.
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Bitcoin May Remain Weak Until Year End.
The declines come amid liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions, with traders pulling out of risk-on investments into risk-off assets such as gold due to mixed economic data and worries about valuations in artificial intelligence stocks. Some long-term bitcoin holders are also selling some of their holdings at this time due to a popular, but controversial, belief that the token’s “halving” schedule dictates its trajectory according to predictable four-year cycles. The next bitcoin halving is expected to occur mid-2028, when the number of blocks hits 1,050,000.
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20251121
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Mad Hedge AI Market Timing Index Hits Seven-month Low at Six,
and the Volatility Index Hit a six-month high at $28, in “STRONG BUY” territory. Many technical services have the market bottoming today or next week, which, because of Thanksgiving, only has 3 ½ trading days. We will likely hit bottom when Bitcoin hits the April low at $77,500 and bounces hard. Bitcoin hit $82,000 last night.
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Some 119,000 Jobs were Gained in September,
but the Unemployment Rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, a 2025 high. That dashed the hope for a Fed interest rate cut in December and prompted a 1,100-point plunge in the Dow Average. Uncertainty is running rampant, increasing market volatility.
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Existing Home Sales Rise 1.2% in October.
Sales of previously owned homes in October rose to 4.1 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were up 1.7% year over year. The inventory of homes for sale fell to 1.52 million units, down 0.7% from September, although still nearly 11% higher than a year earlier. At the current sales pace, there is a 4.4-month supply, still considered lean.
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California Pizza Kitchen Goes Private.
It has been acquired by an investor group led by Consortium Brand Partners and including Todd Boehly's investment firm Eldridge Industries, for under $300 million. The investment represents an opening foray into the restaurant category for Consortium Brand Partners, which owns activewear brand Outdoor Voices, home decor company Jonathan Adler, and lifestyle brand Draper James, which was founded by actress Reese Witherspoon.
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S&P Global US Services Flash PMI Comes in Warm at 54.8,
a four-month high. Manufacturing came in slightly weak. Business activity growth accelerated for a second successive month in November, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen so far this year. Confidence in the year ahead outlook also improved markedly, notably reflecting reduced worries over the political environment and hopes for increased policy support to business.
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Nvidia Beats, Forecast Raised,
but only managed a 3% gain in the stock. Its Big Three customers are still buying with both hands. “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,” CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. “The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.” Ales in the data-center segment, which accounts for a majority of Nvidia's revenue, grew to $51.2 billion in the quarter ended October 26. Analysts had expected sales of $48.62 billion, according to LSEG data. Still, analysts and investors widely expected the underlying demand for AI chips, which has powered Nvidia's results since ChatGPT's launch in late 2022, to remain strong. Huang said last month the company has $500 billion in bookings for its advanced chips through 2026.
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Bureau of Labor Statistics Cancels October Jobs Report,
instead incorporating those payroll figures into the November report set to be published after the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year. The leaderless BLS couldn’t collect October household data, which informs key statistics like the unemployment rate, as a result of the record-long government shutdown. The agency, the figures couldn’t be gathered retroactively. The November employment report will be published on Dec. 16, more than a week later than originally scheduled.
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Chile’s (SQM) Expects 25% Lithium Demand Increase in 2026.
Even with EV growth flat, demand for the metal is rising sharply. Buy (SQM) and (ALB) on dips, the largest US lithium producer.
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The Civil War at the Fed.
Federal Reserve officials were at odds during their October meeting over cutting interest rates, divided over whether a stalling labor market or stubborn inflation was a bigger economic threat, minutes released Wednesday showed. While the Federal Open Market Committee approved a cut at the meeting, the path forward looks less certain. Disagreements stretched into the outlook for December, with officials expressing skepticism about the need for an additional reduction that markets had been widely anticipating, with "many" saying that no more cuts are needed at least in 2025.
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Porsche Releases an All-Electric Cayenne SUV.
The 2026 Cayenne EV is capable of a massive 1,139 horsepower, more than anything Tesla has ever produced, 0-60 mph in 2.4 seconds, and up to 1,106 foot-pounds of torque, according to Porsche. A top-end “Turbo Electric” model starts at $163,000 — making it among the highest-priced Porsches on sale. A standard model with less performance starts at $109,000. My last Tesla, a tricked-out Model X P100D, cost $162,500.
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20251119
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Nvidia Earning Out After the Close Today,
and the market will be flatlining until then. Note that the shares are unchanged since the last quarterly earnings three months ago. Analysts largely expect that the company — the largest in the broad-market index — will meaningfully beat Wall Street's expectations and forecast strong sales growth driven by demand for its AI chips and other infrastructure. I’m staying away as most tech stocks have sold off 10% on good earnings announcements.
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Meta Wins FTC Antitrust Trial,
causing a nice pop in the stock. In a memorandum opinion released Tuesday, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., said the FTC failed to prove its argument. The case, initially filed by the FTC five years ago, centered on Meta’s acquisition of WhatsApp and Instagram.
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Netflix Up Sharply on Warners Brothers Discovery Bid.
Warner Bros. Discovery has set a Nov. 20 deadline for first-round bids. The board is expected to meet before Thanksgiving to evaluate the offers and aims to have the process wrapped up by year-end. It looks like a 17% annual growth rate isn’t enough for (NFLX) founder and CEO Reed Hastings. Now he wants to take advantage of Paramount’s forced sale of Warner Bros to buy market share. Warner Bros., with its deep film and TV library, extensive production capabilities, and HBO Max, is an opportunity they would be remiss not to investigate. But (NFLX) on dips.
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$1.2 Trillion Lost in Crypto in Six Weeks,
after Bitcoin bounced off $90,000 last night. The risk-sensitive cryptocurrency has lost all this year's gains and is now around 26% below a peak of $126,000 in October. It was last up nearly 1.9% at $93,532, after slipping as low as $89,286.75. Market participants said a combination of doubts around future U.S. interest rate cuts and the risk-averse mood in broader markets, which have wobbled after a long rally, was dragging down crypto. Avoid all crypto.
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Trump Invasion Threats Prompt Massive Rally in Venezuela Debt Default Bonds,
betting that the ouster of socialist leader Nicolas Maduro will pave the way for an investor-friendly government that quickly cuts a deal to pay back a chunk of the debt. A change in leadership would, in theory, help to unlock Venezuela's oil wealth, setting the country on a more stable footing while setting the table for negotiations over debt restructuring. There’s always a trade somewhere. Who said Trump wouldn’t be good for the market?
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