Archive
Hot Tips
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October 7, 2025
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The Jobs Crash Tanks Stocks.
Wall Street's main indexes declined on Tuesday after a report from the New York Federal Reserve highlighted worries over the job market, halting a rally that had pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record closing highs a day earlier. Private sources at the Carlyle Group suggest that only 17,000 jobs were gained in September.
After seven days of a government shutdown in the U.S. hindering key data releases, the September report from the NY Fed showed that the expected level of inflation a year from then was 3.4%, compared with 3.2% in August.
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Did Gold Peak Today?
Technical analysts warn that the barbarous relic may face upside resistance at $4,000 an ounce, which is based on today's price. I just sold everything I had for a short-term trade, but am looking to buy a dipette. Mutual funds that invest in gold mining firms are leading 2025 performance, overtaking even high-flying AI and tech funds, as investors bet record gold prices will drive strong margins, cash flows, and shareholder returns. Gold is telling us that inflation is much worse than you think.
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Airbus Tops Boeing as the Most Delivered Jet in History.
The Airbus A320 family of planes overtook the Boeing (BA) 737. Boeing's decades-old record fell with the handover of an A320 model overnight to Saudi carrier Flynas, bringing total deliveries to 12,260 since the A320 series entered service in 1988. A few years of bad management cost (BA) mightily, but they are on the recovery road now.
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(JNJ) Hit with $966 Million over the Talcum Powder Case,
which has been going on forever. The family of Mae Moore, who died in 2021, sued the company the same year, claiming Johnson & Johnson's talc baby powder products contained asbestos fibers that caused her rare cancer. Time to move on.
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Investors are Pouring Back into the Housing Market.
Real estate investors, both individual and institutional, bought one-third of all single-family residential properties sold in the second quarter of 2025. That is an increase from 27% in the first quarter, and the highest percentage in the last five years. Investors accounted for 25.7% of residential home sales in 2024. The bull market in housing is back!
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October 6, 2025
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AMD Soars 30% on Open AI’s Purchase of a 10% Stake.
OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD's Instinct graphics processing units over multiple years and across multiple generations of hardware, the companies said Monday. It will kick off with an initial 1-gigawatt rollout of chips in the second half of 2026. Buy (AMD) on dips.
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Fifth Third Buys Comerica for $10.9 Billion.
I warned you that a transaction like this was headed our way in my September 15 letter. Regional lenders have outperformed large banks, but both have lagged the S&P 500 since the Pandemic. There have been 118 regional bank mergers so far this year, worth $23 billion compared to 500 in 1998. Bank analysts cite the following as cash cows ripe for takeover: Prime targets include Salt Lake City-based Zions Bancorp (ZION), Maryland’s Eagle Bancorp (EGBN), Texas-based First Foundation (FFWN), and Tulsa-based BOK Financial (BOKF).
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Nikkei Soars 5% on Election Result,
with the country’s first female prime minister winning the election. The Japanese Yen fell sharply. PM Takaichi supports more fiscal and monetary stimulus, with the latter punching up against the BoJ’s desire to continue to raise interest rates, albeit slowly, and the elevated inflation in the country.
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Tesla Hints at Low-End Roadster,
which Elon Musk has been talking about for a decade, taking the shares up $16. Musk has a history of promising things that are either not delivered or take substantially longer than he initially says. For investors, a mass-market model is seen as key to revitalizing Tesla's sales. While Tesla reported a jump in auto deliveries in the third quarter of the year, this was attributed to a pull forward in demand due to the expiration of a federal tax credit.
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Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High,
as the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value continued to benefit from strong demand from investors. The rally in bitcoin since the start of the year has been underpinned by flows from institutional investors, friendlier policies of the administration, and an increasing connection with global financial systems. Bitcoin climbed above $125,000 for the first time on Sunday, rising to $125,653.32. It was last up 1.88% to $125,081.85, on course for the second straight session of gains. It has gained more than 33% this year.
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October 3, 2025
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Gold to Top $4,000 by Year-End,
says HSBC. Central bank, ETF, and retail buying of the only truly safe asset continues unabated. This time, they are all trying to front-run flooding of the money supply by the US government in 2026.
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Soybean Farmers are Going Broke,
after China canceled all orders, the world’s largest buyer. It is the bitter fruit of the trade war. Cries for welfare payments from farmers from Washington are rising, causing the National Debt to ratchet up further.
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Oil is Headed for New Lows,
after OPEC+ moves to increase production at their meeting this weekend. Russia needs to fund the war, and Saudi Arabia needs to fund a lavish lifestyle. Saudi Arabia would prefer to see double, triple, or even quadruple that figure - 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd, or 548,000 bpd, respectively, as it has the ability to ramp up production quickly and wants to grow market share.
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Visibility has Become Invisible,
with the complete disappearance of government economic data. You’re just going to have to close your eyes and buy. Private data, and independent news sources like Mad Hedge Fund Trader have never been more valuable. By the way, the private data universally show that the US economy is worsening.
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Buy Freeport McMoRan,
says UBS. The Indonesian flood is a temporary setback. The investment bank upgraded Freeport (FCX) to buy from neutral in a report out Thursday, raising its 12-month price target on the stock to $48 from $42.50, implying more than 23% upside from Thursday’s close. The stock is up 13% since my LEAPS recommendation weeks ago.
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October 2, 2025
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Bureau of Labor Statists Head Fired,
after only a month in the job, most likely because he refused to falsify the data. More accurately, the White House withdrew the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni. That is my guess. If anyone is willing to falsify the data, there is an opening in Washington, DC. Will anyone notice? With the government shut down, no data is economy out of the US Government anyway. Wanted: Someone with a total lack of character.
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Elon Musk wants to Boycott Netflix,
over a single movie that conservatives find offensive. (NFLX) dove 5%, then bounced hard. Tesla also fell $10 despite slightly better than expected Q3 sales figures of 4997,099, up 7% YOY. There was a rush to buy EVs in September ahead of the expiration of tax credits. Expect a terrible Q4 with no tax credits. So much for Elon’s promise to his board to stay out of politics. Buy (NFLX) on the dip, sell (TSLA) on any rallies.
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US Hiring at 16-Year Low.
U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, adding to evidence of a labor market standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of policy and technology advances. The report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, does not normally attract much attention. But together with other private data, it has become more prominent due to a U.S. government shutdown that has led to major economic releases being suspended, including the closely watched employment report for September that was due on Friday.
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Ford and General Motors EV Sales Jump.
Both companies said third-quarter sales overall increased roughly 8% from a year earlier, with EV sales more than doubling for GM. Ford said sales of its EVs increased by 30% compared with the third quarter of 2024. Hyundai reported its namesake brand recorded a 13% year-over-year sales increase during the third quarter, also led by doubling sales of all-electric vehicles.
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Publicly Listed US Companies Drop by Half in 30 Years.
The number of publicly traded firms in the U.S. decreased from nearly 8,100 in 1996 to just over 4,000 by the end of last year. You can blame a massive wave of mergers and acquisitions, which have concentrated ownership in a handful of giant companies. Companies are increasingly choosing to remain private longer or go private. Lower interest rates are expected to boost take-private transactions.
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October 1, 2025
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Private Hiring Collapses, with the ADP down -32,000,
the biggest decline in 2½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Economists surveyed had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000.
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CarMax Shares Get Crushed on Elevated Loan Losses,
down 27%. Loan losses up 23% YOY as low-end consumers reach maximum distress. It’s another early recession indicator. We are approaching 2008-09 default levels.
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Peloton Gets Destroyed,
down 10% on Rising Prices and Falling Sales, on last year’s products. Are weight loss drugs driving consumers away from exercise? Peloton Interactive Inc. announced an overhaul of its hardware lineup and raised prices, causing its shares to fall. New products include updated versions of the Bike, Tread, and Row, with features such as a Swivel Screen, faster chips, and improved audio.
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US Dollar Faces a Prolonged Decline,
off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts. With a government shutdown, the “sell America” trade is back on, too. Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXD), (FXC), and (EEM).
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US Manufacturing Recovers Slightly.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its manufacturing PMI increased to 49.1 last month from 48.7 in August. It was the seventh straight month that the PMI remained below a reading of 50, indicating contraction in manufacturing.
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