Archive
Hot Tips
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October 1, 2025
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Private Hiring Collapses, with the ADP down -32,000,
the biggest decline in 2½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Economists surveyed had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000.
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CarMax Shares Get Crushed on Elevated Loan Losses,
down 27%. Loan losses up 23% YOY as low-end consumers reach maximum distress. It’s another early recession indicator. We are approaching 2008-09 default levels.
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Peloton Gets Destroyed,
down 10% on Rising Prices and Falling Sales, on last year’s products. Are weight loss drugs driving consumers away from exercise? Peloton Interactive Inc. announced an overhaul of its hardware lineup and raised prices, causing its shares to fall. New products include updated versions of the Bike, Tread, and Row, with features such as a Swivel Screen, faster chips, and improved audio.
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US Dollar Faces a Prolonged Decline,
off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts. With a government shutdown, the “sell America” trade is back on, too. Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXD), (FXC), and (EEM).
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US Manufacturing Recovers Slightly.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its manufacturing PMI increased to 49.1 last month from 48.7 in August. It was the seventh straight month that the PMI remained below a reading of 50, indicating contraction in manufacturing.
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September 30, 2025
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JOLTS Job Openings Up Slightly,
at 7.22 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed the 7.2 million openings reported for July and came in above the market expectation of 7.2 million. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million," the BLS noted in its press release. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
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S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index Rose Slightly,
in July at 1.8%YOY, the smallest gain since July 2023. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities (6.4%, followed by Chicago (6.2%) and Cleveland (4.5%). By contrast, several Sun Belt and West Coast markets that were recently red-hot are now faring far worse. Tampa home prices are down -2.8% YOY– the weakest of all 20 cities – and Phoenix has slipped to –0.9%.
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Chicago PMI Comes in Weak at 40.2,
the 22nd consecutive reading below 50. Since the index's neutral point is 50, a reading further below 50 suggests a faster pace of decline. This weak reading is considered a red flag for the broader U.S. economy, as the Chicago PMI is often a bellwether for national manufacturing health.
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Marijuana Stocks Go Ballistic
on hints of deregulation from the president. Tilray was up a monster 70%. Tylenol is out, pot is in, go figure.
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Comcast Spins Off CNBC,
to become part of Versant, along with other sports-oriented companies. Versant, which had been called SpinCo until a permanent name was chosen, will own cable networks including USA, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY, and Golf Channel. It will also house digital assets Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, GolfPass, and SportsEngine. The rest of Comcast's NBCUniversal portfolio, including the broadcast network, Peacock streaming service, Universal Studios, the theme parks, and Bravo, will remain with Comcast. Expect a lot more sports business stories on CNBC.
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September 29, 2025
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Pending Home Sales Bounce.
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased solidly in August as lower mortgage rates pulled buyers back into the market, though a softening labor market could curb further gains. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that pending home sales, based on signed contracts, rebounded 4.0% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 0.2%.
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Wall Street is About to Fly Blind,
preparing for disruption to economic data if a looming U.S. government shutdown goes ahead, which could cause investors to rely more on alternative data or take on more defensive positions as they anticipate volatility in asset prices. The U.S. Labor Department said on Monday that economic data releases would pause in a government shutdown, amplifying investor concerns that Friday's monthly employment report would not be published as scheduled. Such a delay to the closely watched report could cause confusion for investors, including how to assess the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions.
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Goldman Sachs Upgrades the US Market,
taking it to "overweight" from "neutral" over the three-month horizon, citing improving economic momentum across regions, attractive valuations, and growing support from monetary and fiscal policy. "We think that good earnings growth, Fed easing without a recession, and global fiscal policy easing will continue to support equities," Goldman analysts said in a note.
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Tesla Expecting a Good Q3,
on the back of the rush to buy EV’s ahead of the expiration of government subsidies on September 30. That means Q4 sales will be terrible. Tesla stock was up 27% over the past month, leaving shares up 9% this year. Avoid (TSLA).
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Furniture Stocks Collapse on 100% Tariff Threat.
Although details on policy implementation remained vague, investors were pulling back from furniture stocks—particularly those that import a large portion of their products. Williams Sonoma (WSM), (RH), and (ARHS) were all hit.
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September 26, 2025
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Core Inflation Holds Steady at 2.9%,
allowing a sigh og relief for stocks. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Excluding food and energy, the more closely followed core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. The headline annual inflation rate was a slight increase from the 2.6% in July, while the core rate was the same.
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US Consumer Spending Powers On,
US personal spending rose at a solid clip in August for a third month, suggesting consumers continued to power the economy despite elevated inflation. Consumer spending, adjusted for changes in prices, increased 0.4% last month, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday.
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Government to Shut Down on Wednesday,
and the stock market doesn’t appear to care a whit. No interruption in the cash flow from Washington, DC, to the heartland ever lasts more than a month.
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OPEC+ Oil Production Falling Below Target.
OPEC+ has delivered about three-quarters of the extra oil output it targeted since the group started production hikes in April, and the level may fall closer to half later in the year as producers hit capacity limits. OPEC+, which produces 50% of global oil and brings together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been pumping almost 500,000 barrels per day below its targets. The shortfall, equal to 0.5% of global demand, has defied market expectations of a supply glut and supported oil prices.
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Are China and India More Innovative than the US?
The World Intellectual Property Office thinks so. By some measures, Switzerland and Sweden are ahead of the US too, which is only just ahead of South Korea.
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September 25, 2025
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GDP Comes in Hot,
showing a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter, up half a percentage point from the prior estimate due to an upward revision to consumer spending. That’s the fastest pace in two years. Long-lasting items such as airplanes, appliances, and computers increased 2.9% in August, compared with the forecast for a decline of 0.4%.
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Durable Goods Orders Rose by 2.9% month-over-month
to $312.1 billion in August 2025, reversing a revised 2.7% slump in July and better than market estimates of a 0.5% fall. Yet, part of the increase likely reflects higher prices rather than increased volumes, as tariffs on imported goods raise manufacturing costs. It was the first increase in goods orders in three months, led by transport equipment (+7.9%), notably defense aircraft and parts (+50.1%) and non-defense aircraft and parts (+21.6%).
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Existing Home Sales Fall -0.2% in August,
and up 1.8% YOY. These figures are based on June and July closing when interest rates were 0.50% higher. Inventories are down 1.3% to a 4.6-month supply after rising all year. The median price sold is at $422,600, up 2% YOY. Homes are staying on the market for 31 days versus 26 days a year ago. 30-year mortgages are at 6.37%.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Surprise,
at 218,000, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and significantly less than the consensus estimate for 235,000. Two weeks later, bad Texas data is still rippling through the system.
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BYD Outsells Tesla in Europe,
selling three times as many new cars last month as in August 2024, data from the European auto lobby ACEA showed on Thursday. Carmakers have ramped up PHEV sales to comply with emission standards with more affordable and more profitable cars than pure EVs. Chinese brands have also used the technology to minimize the impact of the European Union's tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, and to win over China-skeptic European drivers. Avoid (TSLA).
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