Archive
Hot Tips
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AI Worries Still Drag on the Market.
US equity futures declined as artificial-intelligence concerns damped sentiment, with Wall Street poised to resume trading after a holiday break. US Treasuries (TLT) edged higher, and gold slid. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index retreated 0.8%, and those on the S&P 500 dipped 0.4% as all members of the Magnificent Seven US tech stocks declined in premarket trading. A gauge of perceived risk in US high-grade corporate credit reached its highest since Nov. 25. Spot gold dropped toward $4,900 an ounce.
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Silver Dives 2%.
Silver and gold fell in early premarket trading on Tuesday as investors awaited delayed economic data, with little geopolitical news during the holiday-shortened week. Silver ETFs, including ProShares Ultra Silver, were down 7% in premarket, while iShares Silver Trust and ABRDN physical silver fell just over 3%. This is probably the dip you buy, as everything else looks terrible.
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Oil Rises 1%,
as Iran-US nuclear talks continue. Why are we having nuclear talks when the US destroyed all its weapons-grade uranium in a bombing raid? All oil rallies are temporary as massive supply will hit the market on a Venezuela output recovery and a Ukraine peace deal. Avoid all oil plays.
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Airbnb Jumps 5%,
after it became the latest travel company to point to resilient premium demand as budget-conscious customers pull back. Hotel operators Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT), and airlines such as United (UAL) and Delta (DAL) are banking on resilient demand from high-end travelers in 2026, a trend that reflects a worsening K-shaped economy in the U.S.
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Why has Volatility Suddenly Increased?
About 30% of S&P 500 stocks moved over 20% in three months, double the 15% average, despite low market volatility. AI demand boosts chip makers, while software stocks have crashed; commodity miners and some consumer discretionary stocks also have fallen. Increased inflows into hedge funds, with $3.5 billion in stock purchases this year, are exacerbating extreme stock price movements.
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Gold Surpasses Tech Stock Value for the First Time.
All the gold in the world is now worth $42 trillion, while tech stocks are worth only $40 trillion. Which would you rather buy more of as an asset protection strategy? I vote for the barbarous relic.
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CBO Raises National Debt Projection by $1.4 Trillion,
over 10 years. That takes the national debt from 101% to 120% of GTD. The deficit will be 5.6% of GDP in 2026. Job growth was zero in 2025, the worst since the Pandemic and the Great Recession before that. That is not what strong economies are made of.
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Existing Home Sales Dive 8.4%,
in January, the worst report in three years. Inventories are up 3.4% YOY to a 3.7-month supply. The median home price is $396,800. It’s taking 46 days to sell a house versus 41 days a year ago. First-time buyers jumped from 28% to 31%. The West saw the biggest drop.
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Nuveen Buys the UK’s Schroeders for $13.5 Billion.
The deal creates a group with $2.5 trillion in assets under management. Schroders is valued at 612 pence per share, and the stock surges 29%. Mid-sized asset managers struggle vs bigger rivals. Mid-sized active stock-picking asset managers in Europe, such as Schroders, are confronting the need to combine to compete with larger U.S. rivals like BlackRock (BLK) and Vanguard that sell cheaper index trackers and other passive products. Recent multi-billion dollar deals include BNP Paribas's 2025 AXA’s fund arm, although other European merger negotiations have broken down.
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The Waldorf Astoria is for Sale,
by its Chinese owners, looking to bail on America. The Park Avenue landmark reopened in November after an 8-year renovation from a 1,400-room hotel to 375 hotel guest rooms and 372 residences. The transformation was five years behind schedule and more than $1 billion over the initial budget. My late wife was the international sales manager at the Waldorf when business with Japan was booming.
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A Delayed Nonfarm Payroll for January comes in at 130,000,
down 50% YOY, headline unemployment rate at 4.3%. The January data reinforces Federal Reserve officials’ inclination to keep interest rates on hold for now, with many traders pushing out their timeline for the next rate cut to July from June.
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Buy the Gold Pullback,
says Wells Fargo, expecting the bull market to resume soon. The recent pullback appears to be a healthy correction after an exceptionally strong run. Gold also traded over 30% above its 200-day moving average from January 22 to January 29, a difficult level to maintain and one that has often triggered profit-taking. A period of consolidation following such rapid gains.
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Tariffs Cost States $200 Billion.
New data shows that from March 2025, when the Trump administration began implementing wide-ranging tariffs, through last November, tariff bills paid across U.S. states reached the $200 billion mark collectively, and top states in the 2026 midterm election races paid over $134 billion.
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Crypto Speculation May be Dead,
says whale Michael Novogratz. Bitcoin is down more than 21% so far this year, and nearly 50% from its peak in October. Precious Metals are stealing all the thunder. It’s going to be real-world assets with much lower returns. Avoid all crypto.
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Lyft Shares Dive 18%,
on weak ride growth. Uber has eaten their lunch. Over the past two years, the ride-hailing platform has made progress on profitability and cash flow, but analysts say the next phase of its turnaround will depend on executing more complex growth initiatives to sustain ride momentum against Uber's scale. Avoid (LYFT).
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US Retail Sales Stall for Christmas.
U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year.
The Commerce Department also revised down retail sales for October, suggesting consumer fatigue amid rising cost-of-living challenges that have been partly attributed to higher prices due to tariffs on imports. The weak report, together with a marginal rise in business inventories, prompted economists to downgrade their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter.
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Consumer Delinquencies Hit Decade High,
on loans rising to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt in the fourth quarter. The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, particularly in lower-income zip codes, and student-loan delinquencies. Overall household debt balances climbed 1% from the previous quarter to $18.8 trillion, with the share of credit-card loans at least 90 days delinquent rising to 12.7%.
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Boeing is Beating on Deliveries.
Boeing begins 2026 with 46 deliveries in January and 103 net new orders. US planemaker beat Airbus in deliveries and orders in January. Boeing landed big orders from Delta and Aviation Capital Group in January. Buy (BA) on dips.
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U.S. Business Inventories Increased,
in November as stocks at retailers fell, government data showed on Tuesday.
Inventories rose 0.1% after gaining 0.2% in October, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Inventories are a key component of GDP and one of the most volatile. Rising inventories are usually a sign of slowing business.
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Coca-Cola Drops,
as the weight loss trend cuts sales. The company posted adjusted earnings of 58 cents for the quarter, ahead of Wall Street’s consensus call for 56 cents. Although net revenue grew 2% from last year to $11.8 billion, it came below analysts’ forecast of $12.05 billion. Organic sales rose 4.8%, also slower than the 5% growth analysts had anticipated. Much of the quarter’s growth came from sales of concentrate and syrup to bottling partners, rather than finished drinks, according to the company. Avoid (K).
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Japanese Conservative Election Win Sends Nikkei Soaring,
topping 57,000. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported. A decisive win for Takaichi could be the “best outcome” for markets over the medium term, as strategic investments and tax reform bolster equities.
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Justice Department Launches Antitrust Investigation of Netflix (NFLX),
which is attempting to deprive Paramount from taking over Warner Bros. Paramount is owned by Trump's major donor, Larry Ellison. Antitrust prosecutions usually proceed when a company has a 60% market share or higher. The Netflix share of global streaming is 10%.
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Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit-Six Month Low at 3.1%.
Median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%), and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%), its lowest reading since July 2023.
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Cleveland Cliffs Dives 24%,
reporting a fourth-quarter EBITDA loss of $21 million, with sales flat year over year at $4.3 billion. Full-year 2025 EBITDA for Cliffs was $37 million, a significant decrease from $773 million reported in 2024. The company expects to ship 16.8 million tons of steel in 2026, an increase from 16.2 million tons in 2025. If the company can’t make money with the amount of domestic steel protection it is receiving right now you should avoid (CLF).
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Alphabet to Issue 100-Year Bond
to finance AI build-out, in the first such issue since the 1990s. The 100-year bond will be denominated in sterling, and the main buyer is expected to be insurance companies and pension funds. The sale is part of a larger debt issue by Alphabet, which is raising funds to finance its ambitions in artificial intelligence, with capital expenditures expected to reach as much as $185 billion this year.
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