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Hot Tips
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US Crude Exports Hit New High,
at 5.2 million barrels, up 50% in three months. Asian and European buyers are rushing to replace Middle Eastern crude lost because of the disruption caused by the Iran war. Exports are causing US gasoline prices to soar to decade highs, with diesel fetching $8.00 a gallon in California.
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Cattle Prices are Soaring.
Cattle Futures closed at $2.51 per pound on Tuesday, the highest price on record going back to the 1960s. Each contract is for 40,000 pounds of live cattle, typically about 30 to 35 head of finished, slaughter-ready cattle. The contract has jumped more than 25% over the past 12 months as ranchers faced rising costs and slashed the size of their herds. Cattle slaughter is expected to have tumbled to 2.2 million head in March, down from 2.5 million in the year-earlier period.
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Netflix Tanks 11%,
on great earnings at a 13% annual rate, but weak forward guidance. It didn’t help that founder Reed Hastings is retiring. If I were worth $7 billion, I would retire too. I see a company that is raising prices, moving big-time into highly profitable sports, and has won the streaming wars. Use this dip to buy (NFLX).
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Wells Fargo Sees Gold at $8,000 an Ounce.
Gold was among the hottest momentum plays of the year, before its tumble last month following the start of the U.S.-Iran war. In March, gold futures dropped nearly 11% — their worst month since June 2013. But the Wall Street investment bank expects the “debasement” trade — referring to a rise in central banks around the world selling fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar in favor of a more neutral safe haven — could send the precious metal to new heights.
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Maine Becomes the First State to Ban Server Farms,
blaming the drain on local power supplies and noise. States including Georgia, Oklahoma and Virginia have also put forward proposals for temporary data center bans amid growing concerns over the energy costs of such projects and their environmental impact. Nearly 3,000 new data centers are under construction or planned across the U.S. as of late 2025, complementing over 4,000 already in operation.
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Amazon Takes on Starlink,
through buying Globestar for $11.6 billion, a satellite company. Deal adds 2 dozen satellites to Amazon network. But rivaling Starlink is still a challenge, as it has a ten-year head start. Globalstar network will continue serving Apple features like Emergency SOS. Satellite firm's shares rise 10%, Amazon up 3%
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Wells Fargo Misses,
sending the shares down 6%. Net interest income, the difference between what the company makes from lending and pays for deposits, totaled $12.1 billion. That was up from a year earlier but fell short of analysts’ estimates of almost $12.3 billion. Noninterest income, an aggregation of fees across business lines, came in at $9.35 billion, also lower than analysts’ consensus of $9.5 billion.
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Producer Price Index
Jumps 0.5% in March, below expectations for a 1.1% advance. PPI rises 4.0% year-on-year, the largest gain in three years. The inflation call is still on.
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IMF cuts 2026 Global GDP Growth Forecast to 3.1%,
assuming a short-lived Iran war. World is drifting toward 'adverse scenario' of 2.5% 2026 growth, IMF chief economist says. A deeper, longer conflict would push the global economy to the brink of recession, IMF says. IMF chief economist says oil above $110 a barrel in 2026, 2027 would make inflation hard to control. War to cause steep GDP drops for Iran, several Gulf states
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United Air Takes a Run at American Airlines.
Such a move would almost certainly lead to higher prices and worse service.
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US Blockade of Straits Begins,
bringing the trickle of oil that was getting out to a complete stop. All the US has done is offer up more targets. Who can take more pain, Iran or the US, going into an election with soaring inflation? Expect the inflation rate to rise 1% a month for the foreseeable future. The damage to production and distribution is far worse than anyone is letting on.
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Existing Home Sales Plunge,
thanks to the war-induced interest rate spike, that has taken 30-year mortgages back up to 6.50%. Existing home sales decrease 3.6% to 3.980 million units. Housing inventory increases 2.3% from the year ago to 1.36 million units. Median house price rises 1.4% from a year ago to $408,800.
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Goldman Sachs Beats,
but the stock drops as it usually does. Trading revenue from FICC intermediation and financing falls 10%. Equity revenue rises to a record $5.33 billion. Investment banking fees up 48% to $2.84 billion. Buy (GS) on dips.
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NVIDIA is NOT taking over Dell Computer,
dashing all rumors. Why should a 60% profit margin business take over a 7% one? Still, Dell might combine with someone else in the chip sector.
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Does Your Kid Need a Job?
Parents with means are paying thousands of dollars to pair their college-age children with career coaches to help them land a job after graduation. Career coaching services for college students can cost a few hundred dollars an hour, with comprehensive packages ranging from $3,000 to $10,000, and some companies charge upwards of $30,000 for intensive support. The services offered by private coaches include interview rehearsals, application strategies, and help with internships and building résumés to compete in a cutthroat job market.
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Inflation Explodes to Four-Year High,
with the CPI up 0.9% in March and 3.3% YOY. The real figure is 3.9% after you add back in the 0.6% missing from October and November. The Consumer Price Index should continue rising at this rate until oil prices come back down, which they likely will not.
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Consumer Confidence Hits Record Lows.
The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled to an all-time low of 47.6 this month from a final reading of 53.3 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index easing to 52.0.
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Pawn Shop Loans Soar.
Pawn shop owners across the US say they’ve seen an increase in demand for loans in the past month or so, due to higher gas prices. Lower-income households are among the first to feel the hit when pump prices go up, as they spend a larger portion of their wages on fuel. The surge in gas prices has left some without enough cash to fill up their cars or pay for electricity or groceries, with pawn shops offering short-term loans in exchange for collateral.
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Lockheed Martin Scores Massive $4.7 Billion Missile Contract.
The contract for the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) follows a seven-year agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense to more than triple its annual production, as countries respond to heightened geopolitical tensions. Existing stockpiles have become exhausted with the advent of the Iran War. Buy (LMT) on dips.
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Big Banks Told to Avoid Anthropic Apps,
after the company refused to allow the Pentagon to use their software in killer robots. The government is trying to wreck Anthropos’ coming IPO and market valuation. They have been highlighting risks that also exist in all other AI apps.
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The Straits are Still Closed,
with only four ships clearing the waterway on Wednesday. Only Iran’s allies are allowed through, and even they must pay $2 million each in crypto, or $1 a barrel of oil. I’d rather not be buying stocks based on “The straights are going to open.”
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Weekly Jobless Claims Jump to 219,000,
up 16,000. Core PCE price index rises 0.4% for the second straight month; up 3.0% year over year. The Iran War has increased the downside risks to the labor market, and it's too soon to assume that the ceasefire announced earlier this week will last and to say those risks have abated.
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Investors Tried to Pull $20 Billion from Private Credit Funds
in Q1 as panic in the asset class runs rampant. The redemption requests hit huge groups in the sector, including Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR, according to FT calculations. The withdrawals reflect intensifying concerns over the private credit industry’s lending to private equity-backed software companies and the uncertainty those businesses face as AI rapidly advances.
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Core PCE price index rises 0.4%
for the second straight month; up 3.0% year over year. And this is a prewar number, not reflecting a hyperinflationary oil price spike. Monthly inflation rose by the most in 12 months in February, and economic growth almost braked in the fourth quarter, other data showed on Thursday. Economists expect that price pressures increased further in March as the war drove up the cost of energy and other products.
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Inventories are Soaring,
another early recession indicator. U.S. wholesale inventories increased by the most in 13 months in February, boosted by sharp rises in the stocks of professional and electrical equipment, government data showed on Thursday. Stocks at wholesalers rebounded 0.8%, the largest increase since January 2025, after falling 0.3% in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday.
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