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Hot Tips
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Tim Cook is out at Apple,
and the era of the professional manager is over. John Ternus, the hardware engineering chief who has spent more than two decades inside Cupertino, takes the CEO chair on September 1st. Cook did his job — he turned a great product company into a $4 trillion money machine, a 24-fold increase on his watch. But Apple hasn't had a true visionary at the top since Steve Jobs died, and the stock has gone nowhere this year while the Nasdaq ripped 5%. Ternus is an engineer, not a salesman. That is exactly what Apple needs right now. Buy (AAPL) on dips.
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The Fed's New Boss Goes Before the Senate Today,
and Kevin Warsh has the most important job interview in the history of central banking. Trump wants lower rates. The bond market wants a hawk. Inflation is running at 3.58% and climbing. I have been watching Fed chairmen come and go since the days of Arthur Burns, and I have never seen one walk into a more impossible situation. Warsh is a smart man — I've met him — but smart doesn't matter when you're caught between a president who tweets and a bond market that doesn't care. Higher rates are coming whether Warsh likes it or not. Avoid (TLT) at all costs.
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The Ceasefire Expires Tomorrow, and Trump is Playing With Fire,
telling CNBC this morning, he expects a "great deal" with Iran while simultaneously promising to bomb their power plants and bridges if nothing is signed by Wednesday. I have covered wars since Vietnam. This is not how deals get done. Bank of America's own economists warned clients this morning that the market is dangerously extrapolating the trade war playbook onto a shooting war — and that de-escalation is no longer a unilateral move. They are right. Oil at $95 is not the problem. Oil at $130 is the problem. Stay long (USO) and (XLE) until there is ink on paper.
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Dell is the AI Server Trade Nobody is Talking About,
and Melius Research just raised its two-year target to $245. While everyone is obsessed with Nvidia, Dell is quietly stealing market share from Supermicro, whose co-founder was just indicted by the DOJ for allegedly smuggling AI servers into China. I have seen this movie before — the number two player in a hot market with a legal scandal clearing out the number one. Agentic AI is driving a whole new wave of enterprise server demand, and Dell is positioned to capture it. This is a ten-bagger in the making. Buy (DELL) on dips.
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Tesla Reports Tomorrow, and Elon Has One Job,
say the word "robotaxi." Deliveries were missed by 12,000 units in Q1, and the stock is down 11% year to date. None of that matters. Tesla has never been a car company — it is an options contract on the future of autonomous transport, AI, and energy. The Terafab chip project alone — a joint venture with SpaceX targeting a terawatt of annual computing capacity — could be worth more than the entire current market cap if it delivers. The robotaxi announcement will come. It always does.
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The Good News is that the Straits of Hormuz are Open,
triggering a 1,200-point rally in the Dow. The bad news is that the postwar rally has already happened. Add new longs here at your peril. There are now more questions than answers. When will the US blockade end? Will the US turn away ships from Iran's allies? Is Iran still charging $2 million fees? Market volatility is anything but over. It’s still a black swan a day. But it’s clear that big tech will lead any recovery. Good thing I took profits on my oil longs yesterday.
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Copper Could be the Next Oil.
Production is up 7% YOY thanks to exploding AI and defense spending. The government is talking about creating a strategic copper reserve. Production from Chile, the largest copper miner in the world, is at a nine-year low. China has banned the export of sulfuric acid, essential for copper refining, the source of 20% of world supplies. Chile remains the top producer (23% share), followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (14%) and Peru (11%). Buy (COPX) and (FCX) on dips.
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Nvidia is Coming for Your Electricity,
as GPU rental rates are rocketing in the face of unlimited demand. NVIDIA’s flagship Blackwell processor rents have soared from $3.00 to $4.12 in two months, an increase of 40%. Soaring electricity costs are to blame. Some 3,000 data processing factories are under construction, joining the 4,000 already built. Data centers consume massive amounts of electricity, accounting for roughly 4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 (~176 TWh), with projections for this figure to grow by 133% by 2030. Power is mainly consumed by IT equipment (60%) and cooling systems (up to 30%+), with large AI-dedicated facilities using 8–10 times more power than traditional data centers. Buy (NVDA) on dips.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall 11,000,
to 207,000. Continuing claims increased 31,000 to 1.818 million. Manufacturing production dips in March but grows at a 3.0% rate in the first quarter. A surge in oil prices and the accompanying rise in inflation pressures because of the conflict have pushed Consumer Sentiment to record lows, and economists warned households could scale back spending, with ripple effects on the labor market. Some anticipated labor market weakness due to the oil price shock.
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Big Banks Shaking Off Private Credit Fears.
The biggest US banks have more than $185 billion worth of combined exposure to private credit, an asset class under pressure in recent months. Executives see potential in the market, with Citizens Financial Group Inc.'s private-credit portfolio likely to climb about 5% in 2026, and are trying to calm investors' jitters. Banks are spotting opportunities to step in as some private-credit firms pull back, with some nonbank lenders grappling with redemptions and pulling back on lending, opening up potential for depository institutions. Buy banks on dips.
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US Crude Exports Hit New High,
at 5.2 million barrels, up 50% in three months. Asian and European buyers are rushing to replace Middle Eastern crude lost because of the disruption caused by the Iran war. Exports are causing US gasoline prices to soar to decade highs, with diesel fetching $8.00 a gallon in California.
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Cattle Prices are Soaring.
Cattle Futures closed at $2.51 per pound on Tuesday, the highest price on record going back to the 1960s. Each contract is for 40,000 pounds of live cattle, typically about 30 to 35 head of finished, slaughter-ready cattle. The contract has jumped more than 25% over the past 12 months as ranchers faced rising costs and slashed the size of their herds. Cattle slaughter is expected to have tumbled to 2.2 million head in March, down from 2.5 million in the year-earlier period.
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Netflix Tanks 11%,
on great earnings at a 13% annual rate, but weak forward guidance. It didn’t help that founder Reed Hastings is retiring. If I were worth $7 billion, I would retire too. I see a company that is raising prices, moving big-time into highly profitable sports, and has won the streaming wars. Use this dip to buy (NFLX).
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Wells Fargo Sees Gold at $8,000 an Ounce.
Gold was among the hottest momentum plays of the year, before its tumble last month following the start of the U.S.-Iran war. In March, gold futures dropped nearly 11% — their worst month since June 2013. But the Wall Street investment bank expects the “debasement” trade — referring to a rise in central banks around the world selling fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar in favor of a more neutral safe haven — could send the precious metal to new heights.
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Maine Becomes the First State to Ban Server Farms,
blaming the drain on local power supplies and noise. States including Georgia, Oklahoma and Virginia have also put forward proposals for temporary data center bans amid growing concerns over the energy costs of such projects and their environmental impact. Nearly 3,000 new data centers are under construction or planned across the U.S. as of late 2025, complementing over 4,000 already in operation.
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Amazon Takes on Starlink,
through buying Globestar for $11.6 billion, a satellite company. Deal adds 2 dozen satellites to Amazon network. But rivaling Starlink is still a challenge, as it has a ten-year head start. Globalstar network will continue serving Apple features like Emergency SOS. Satellite firm's shares rise 10%, Amazon up 3%
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Wells Fargo Misses,
sending the shares down 6%. Net interest income, the difference between what the company makes from lending and pays for deposits, totaled $12.1 billion. That was up from a year earlier but fell short of analysts’ estimates of almost $12.3 billion. Noninterest income, an aggregation of fees across business lines, came in at $9.35 billion, also lower than analysts’ consensus of $9.5 billion.
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Producer Price Index
Jumps 0.5% in March, below expectations for a 1.1% advance. PPI rises 4.0% year-on-year, the largest gain in three years. The inflation call is still on.
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IMF cuts 2026 Global GDP Growth Forecast to 3.1%,
assuming a short-lived Iran war. World is drifting toward 'adverse scenario' of 2.5% 2026 growth, IMF chief economist says. A deeper, longer conflict would push the global economy to the brink of recession, IMF says. IMF chief economist says oil above $110 a barrel in 2026, 2027 would make inflation hard to control. War to cause steep GDP drops for Iran, several Gulf states
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United Air Takes a Run at American Airlines.
Such a move would almost certainly lead to higher prices and worse service.
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US Blockade of Straits Begins,
bringing the trickle of oil that was getting out to a complete stop. All the US has done is offer up more targets. Who can take more pain, Iran or the US, going into an election with soaring inflation? Expect the inflation rate to rise 1% a month for the foreseeable future. The damage to production and distribution is far worse than anyone is letting on.
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Existing Home Sales Plunge,
thanks to the war-induced interest rate spike, that has taken 30-year mortgages back up to 6.50%. Existing home sales decrease 3.6% to 3.980 million units. Housing inventory increases 2.3% from the year ago to 1.36 million units. Median house price rises 1.4% from a year ago to $408,800.
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Goldman Sachs Beats,
but the stock drops as it usually does. Trading revenue from FICC intermediation and financing falls 10%. Equity revenue rises to a record $5.33 billion. Investment banking fees up 48% to $2.84 billion. Buy (GS) on dips.
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NVIDIA is NOT taking over Dell Computer,
dashing all rumors. Why should a 60% profit margin business take over a 7% one? Still, Dell might combine with someone else in the chip sector.
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Does Your Kid Need a Job?
Parents with means are paying thousands of dollars to pair their college-age children with career coaches to help them land a job after graduation. Career coaching services for college students can cost a few hundred dollars an hour, with comprehensive packages ranging from $3,000 to $10,000, and some companies charge upwards of $30,000 for intensive support. The services offered by private coaches include interview rehearsals, application strategies, and help with internships and building résumés to compete in a cutthroat job market.
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