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Hot Tips
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A Delayed Nonfarm Payroll for January comes in at 130,000,
down 50% YOY, headline unemployment rate at 4.3%. The January data reinforces Federal Reserve officials’ inclination to keep interest rates on hold for now, with many traders pushing out their timeline for the next rate cut to July from June.
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Buy the Gold Pullback,
says Wells Fargo, expecting the bull market to resume soon. The recent pullback appears to be a healthy correction after an exceptionally strong run. Gold also traded over 30% above its 200-day moving average from January 22 to January 29, a difficult level to maintain and one that has often triggered profit-taking. A period of consolidation following such rapid gains.
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Tariffs Cost States $200 Billion.
New data shows that from March 2025, when the Trump administration began implementing wide-ranging tariffs, through last November, tariff bills paid across U.S. states reached the $200 billion mark collectively, and top states in the 2026 midterm election races paid over $134 billion.
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Crypto Speculation May be Dead,
says whale Michael Novogratz. Bitcoin is down more than 21% so far this year, and nearly 50% from its peak in October. Precious Metals are stealing all the thunder. It’s going to be real-world assets with much lower returns. Avoid all crypto.
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Lyft Shares Dive 18%,
on weak ride growth. Uber has eaten their lunch. Over the past two years, the ride-hailing platform has made progress on profitability and cash flow, but analysts say the next phase of its turnaround will depend on executing more complex growth initiatives to sustain ride momentum against Uber's scale. Avoid (LYFT).
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US Retail Sales Stall for Christmas.
U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year.
The Commerce Department also revised down retail sales for October, suggesting consumer fatigue amid rising cost-of-living challenges that have been partly attributed to higher prices due to tariffs on imports. The weak report, together with a marginal rise in business inventories, prompted economists to downgrade their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter.
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Consumer Delinquencies Hit Decade High,
on loans rising to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt in the fourth quarter. The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, particularly in lower-income zip codes, and student-loan delinquencies. Overall household debt balances climbed 1% from the previous quarter to $18.8 trillion, with the share of credit-card loans at least 90 days delinquent rising to 12.7%.
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Boeing is Beating on Deliveries.
Boeing begins 2026 with 46 deliveries in January and 103 net new orders. US planemaker beat Airbus in deliveries and orders in January. Boeing landed big orders from Delta and Aviation Capital Group in January. Buy (BA) on dips.
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U.S. Business Inventories Increased,
in November as stocks at retailers fell, government data showed on Tuesday.
Inventories rose 0.1% after gaining 0.2% in October, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. Inventories are a key component of GDP and one of the most volatile. Rising inventories are usually a sign of slowing business.
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Coca-Cola Drops,
as the weight loss trend cuts sales. The company posted adjusted earnings of 58 cents for the quarter, ahead of Wall Street’s consensus call for 56 cents. Although net revenue grew 2% from last year to $11.8 billion, it came below analysts’ forecast of $12.05 billion. Organic sales rose 4.8%, also slower than the 5% growth analysts had anticipated. Much of the quarter’s growth came from sales of concentrate and syrup to bottling partners, rather than finished drinks, according to the company. Avoid (K).
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Japanese Conservative Election Win Sends Nikkei Soaring,
topping 57,000. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported. A decisive win for Takaichi could be the “best outcome” for markets over the medium term, as strategic investments and tax reform bolster equities.
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Justice Department Launches Antitrust Investigation of Netflix (NFLX),
which is attempting to deprive Paramount from taking over Warner Bros. Paramount is owned by Trump's major donor, Larry Ellison. Antitrust prosecutions usually proceed when a company has a 60% market share or higher. The Netflix share of global streaming is 10%.
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Consumer Inflation Expectations Hit-Six Month Low at 3.1%.
Median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%), and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%), its lowest reading since July 2023.
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Cleveland Cliffs Dives 24%,
reporting a fourth-quarter EBITDA loss of $21 million, with sales flat year over year at $4.3 billion. Full-year 2025 EBITDA for Cliffs was $37 million, a significant decrease from $773 million reported in 2024. The company expects to ship 16.8 million tons of steel in 2026, an increase from 16.2 million tons in 2025. If the company can’t make money with the amount of domestic steel protection it is receiving right now you should avoid (CLF).
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Alphabet to Issue 100-Year Bond
to finance AI build-out, in the first such issue since the 1990s. The 100-year bond will be denominated in sterling, and the main buyer is expected to be insurance companies and pension funds. The sale is part of a larger debt issue by Alphabet, which is raising funds to finance its ambitions in artificial intelligence, with capital expenditures expected to reach as much as $185 billion this year.
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Bitcoin Crashes,
reaching a 15-month low of $63,000, and it may get worse. The Trump bump is gone. Strategy (MSTR) plunged to $104 and is thought to have lost $17 billion so far this year. Avoid all crypto for now.
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Stellantis Shares Dive 24%,
after a massive $26.5 billion EV write-down. Shares of the Franco-Italian group, which owns the old Chrysler, fell by up to 24% to 6.17 euros in Milan, hovering around their lowest price since May 2020. If the losses hold, the stock will see its biggest one-day drop on record, as Friday's losses wipe off more than 5 billion euros from Stellantis' market capitalization.
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Amazon Plunges 12%,
after missing its fourth-quarter earnings estimates. The e-commerce giant earned $1.95 per share versus the $1.97 analysts polled by LSEG had forecast. On the other hand, its $213.39 billion revenue beat expectations of $211.33 billion. The (AMZN) story is in the same dilemma as all hyperscalers, namely, the investment community isn’t currently willing to pay a premium to back companies behind the AI build-out.
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iPhones are About to Get More Expensive,
as the AI build-out drives up parts prices. The iPhone maker (AAPL) predicted strong sales growth last week, spurred by demand for its iPhone 17 models. CEO Tim Cook told investors he expected memory chip prices to increase sharply, but declined to answer analysts' questions about whether Apple would raise prices in response.
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US Equity Fund Inflows Plunge.
Witnessing an easing of demand in the week through February 4 on caution over a selloff in software stocks, although strong earnings from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) offered some support. Investors bought U.S. equity funds of $5.58 billion during the week, approximately a 48% drop compared with the prior week's $10.82 billion net inflows.
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There’s a Slow-Motion Crash Underway,
with technology stocks seeing their biggest two-day drop since April. Bitcoin treasury stock Strategy (MSTR) cratered 35% in a week and has given up 74% in four months. Interest rates are rising, which is not good for anyone. Is the rising unemployment rate finally starting to bite?
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Weekly Jobless Claims Rocket.
Initial claims increased by 22,000 to 231,000 in the final week of January, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Claims exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, increased to 1.84 million in the previous week.
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Layoffs Hit 17-Year High,
while hiring a new low according to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday. U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009, while the economy was in the final months of its steepest downturn since the Great Depression.
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Silver Collapses Another 16%,
to a new post bubble low at $67. Analysts point to speculative flows, leveraged positioning, and options-driven trading as key drivers of the price swings. No way of knowing the bottom here. My worst-case low? The old Bunker Hunt high of $50 an ounce.
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Shipping Companies are Getting Torpedoed,
with the collapse of international trade leading to structural overcapacity. Danish shipping giant Maersk said on Thursday that falling freight rates, driven by container-vessel overcapacity and the gradual resumption of shorter Red Sea routes, could halve earnings in 2026, dragging its shares down sharply. Avoid all shipping plays.
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