Archive
Hot Tips
-
October 2, 2025
-
Bureau of Labor Statists Head Fired,
after only a month in the job, most likely because he refused to falsify the data. More accurately, the White House withdrew the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni. That is my guess. If anyone is willing to falsify the data, there is an opening in Washington, DC. Will anyone notice? With the government shut down, no data is economy out of the US Government anyway. Wanted: Someone with a total lack of character.
-
Elon Musk wants to Boycott Netflix,
over a single movie that conservatives find offensive. (NFLX) dove 5%, then bounced hard. Tesla also fell $10 despite slightly better than expected Q3 sales figures of 4997,099, up 7% YOY. There was a rush to buy EVs in September ahead of the expiration of tax credits. Expect a terrible Q4 with no tax credits. So much for Elon’s promise to his board to stay out of politics. Buy (NFLX) on the dip, sell (TSLA) on any rallies.
-
US Hiring at 16-Year Low.
U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, adding to evidence of a labor market standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of policy and technology advances. The report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, does not normally attract much attention. But together with other private data, it has become more prominent due to a U.S. government shutdown that has led to major economic releases being suspended, including the closely watched employment report for September that was due on Friday.
-
Ford and General Motors EV Sales Jump.
Both companies said third-quarter sales overall increased roughly 8% from a year earlier, with EV sales more than doubling for GM. Ford said sales of its EVs increased by 30% compared with the third quarter of 2024. Hyundai reported its namesake brand recorded a 13% year-over-year sales increase during the third quarter, also led by doubling sales of all-electric vehicles.
-
Publicly Listed US Companies Drop by Half in 30 Years.
The number of publicly traded firms in the U.S. decreased from nearly 8,100 in 1996 to just over 4,000 by the end of last year. You can blame a massive wave of mergers and acquisitions, which have concentrated ownership in a handful of giant companies. Companies are increasingly choosing to remain private longer or go private. Lower interest rates are expected to boost take-private transactions.
-
-
October 1, 2025
-
Private Hiring Collapses, with the ADP down -32,000,
the biggest decline in 2½ years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Economists surveyed had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000.
-
CarMax Shares Get Crushed on Elevated Loan Losses,
down 27%. Loan losses up 23% YOY as low-end consumers reach maximum distress. It’s another early recession indicator. We are approaching 2008-09 default levels.
-
Peloton Gets Destroyed,
down 10% on Rising Prices and Falling Sales, on last year’s products. Are weight loss drugs driving consumers away from exercise? Peloton Interactive Inc. announced an overhaul of its hardware lineup and raised prices, causing its shares to fall. New products include updated versions of the Bike, Tread, and Row, with features such as a Swivel Screen, faster chips, and improved audio.
-
US Dollar Faces a Prolonged Decline,
off the back of the coming Fed interest rate cuts. With a government shutdown, the “sell America” trade is back on, too. Buy (FXA), (FXE), (FXD), (FXC), and (EEM).
-
US Manufacturing Recovers Slightly.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its manufacturing PMI increased to 49.1 last month from 48.7 in August. It was the seventh straight month that the PMI remained below a reading of 50, indicating contraction in manufacturing.
-
-
September 30, 2025
-
JOLTS Job Openings Up Slightly,
at 7.22 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed the 7.2 million openings reported for July and came in above the market expectation of 7.2 million. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million," the BLS noted in its press release. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
-
S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index Rose Slightly,
in July at 1.8%YOY, the smallest gain since July 2023. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities (6.4%, followed by Chicago (6.2%) and Cleveland (4.5%). By contrast, several Sun Belt and West Coast markets that were recently red-hot are now faring far worse. Tampa home prices are down -2.8% YOY– the weakest of all 20 cities – and Phoenix has slipped to –0.9%.
-
Chicago PMI Comes in Weak at 40.2,
the 22nd consecutive reading below 50. Since the index's neutral point is 50, a reading further below 50 suggests a faster pace of decline. This weak reading is considered a red flag for the broader U.S. economy, as the Chicago PMI is often a bellwether for national manufacturing health.
-
Marijuana Stocks Go Ballistic
on hints of deregulation from the president. Tilray was up a monster 70%. Tylenol is out, pot is in, go figure.
-
Comcast Spins Off CNBC,
to become part of Versant, along with other sports-oriented companies. Versant, which had been called SpinCo until a permanent name was chosen, will own cable networks including USA, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY, and Golf Channel. It will also house digital assets Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, GolfPass, and SportsEngine. The rest of Comcast's NBCUniversal portfolio, including the broadcast network, Peacock streaming service, Universal Studios, the theme parks, and Bravo, will remain with Comcast. Expect a lot more sports business stories on CNBC.
-
-
September 29, 2025
-
Pending Home Sales Bounce.
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased solidly in August as lower mortgage rates pulled buyers back into the market, though a softening labor market could curb further gains. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that pending home sales, based on signed contracts, rebounded 4.0% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 0.2%.
-
Wall Street is About to Fly Blind,
preparing for disruption to economic data if a looming U.S. government shutdown goes ahead, which could cause investors to rely more on alternative data or take on more defensive positions as they anticipate volatility in asset prices. The U.S. Labor Department said on Monday that economic data releases would pause in a government shutdown, amplifying investor concerns that Friday's monthly employment report would not be published as scheduled. Such a delay to the closely watched report could cause confusion for investors, including how to assess the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions.
-
Goldman Sachs Upgrades the US Market,
taking it to "overweight" from "neutral" over the three-month horizon, citing improving economic momentum across regions, attractive valuations, and growing support from monetary and fiscal policy. "We think that good earnings growth, Fed easing without a recession, and global fiscal policy easing will continue to support equities," Goldman analysts said in a note.
-
Tesla Expecting a Good Q3,
on the back of the rush to buy EV’s ahead of the expiration of government subsidies on September 30. That means Q4 sales will be terrible. Tesla stock was up 27% over the past month, leaving shares up 9% this year. Avoid (TSLA).
-
Furniture Stocks Collapse on 100% Tariff Threat.
Although details on policy implementation remained vague, investors were pulling back from furniture stocks—particularly those that import a large portion of their products. Williams Sonoma (WSM), (RH), and (ARHS) were all hit.
-
-
September 26, 2025
-
Core Inflation Holds Steady at 2.9%,
allowing a sigh og relief for stocks. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Excluding food and energy, the more closely followed core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. The headline annual inflation rate was a slight increase from the 2.6% in July, while the core rate was the same.
-
US Consumer Spending Powers On,
US personal spending rose at a solid clip in August for a third month, suggesting consumers continued to power the economy despite elevated inflation. Consumer spending, adjusted for changes in prices, increased 0.4% last month, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday.
-
Government to Shut Down on Wednesday,
and the stock market doesn’t appear to care a whit. No interruption in the cash flow from Washington, DC, to the heartland ever lasts more than a month.
-
OPEC+ Oil Production Falling Below Target.
OPEC+ has delivered about three-quarters of the extra oil output it targeted since the group started production hikes in April, and the level may fall closer to half later in the year as producers hit capacity limits. OPEC+, which produces 50% of global oil and brings together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been pumping almost 500,000 barrels per day below its targets. The shortfall, equal to 0.5% of global demand, has defied market expectations of a supply glut and supported oil prices.
-
Are China and India More Innovative than the US?
The World Intellectual Property Office thinks so. By some measures, Switzerland and Sweden are ahead of the US too, which is only just ahead of South Korea.
-
