Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for March 1, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
March 1, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Q4 GDP Growth Dives to 2.6%, down from 3.5% in Q3. The entire stimulus package is looking like a one-hit wonder. And the government shutdown will shave 75 basis points off the next quarter. Click here.

2) Initial Jobless Claims Up 8,000, to 225,000. It’s still hugging a 40-year low. Good luck hiring a gardener. Click here.

3) Chicago Purchasing Manager Index Soars, from an expected 56.1 to 64.7, a 14-month high. It’s a rare piece of good news from a rapidly deteriorating economy. It’s also another nail in the coffin of the bond market. Click here.

4) Tesla Launches $35,000 Model 3, and they’re closing most stores to finance it. Electric cars for the masses, a decade-long promise, is finally here. The new Tesla 3 will have a 220 miles range. Plummeting battery prices were the clincher. Buy (TSLA), sell (GM). Click here.

5) Morgan Stanley Quadruples China Weighting in its Global Index, and stocks in the Middle Kingdom soar. With a Chinese victory in the trade talks imminent, it might be a good time to get in. Buy (FXI). Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(OH, HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN),

(BRK/A), (AXP), (AAPL), (BAC), (KO), (WFC), (KHT),

(AMGEN’S BIG WIN),

(AMGN), (SNY), (REGN)

(ABOUT THE TRADE ALERT DROUGHT),

(SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (MSFT)

 

Your Next Car

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 28, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 28, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Bonds Get Crushed, down 1.38 points yesterday as the great “crowding out” begins. Massive corporate borrowing can’t compete with government borrowing, so rates are rising sharply. This is the beginning of the end. Sell short the (TLT). Click here.

2) 30 Feet of Snow in One Month, at Lake Tahoe is a new all-time record for a single month. It looks like my roof is going to get crushed for the second year in three. My insurance company hates me. I don’t know about you, but climate change is kicking my butt. Click here.

3) US Factory Orders Come in Incredibly Weak, at 0.1% in December when 0.6% was expected. Recession indicator number one million. Limit your risk. Click here.

4) Home Depot Announces a New $15 Billion Share Buy Back, to their existing program. It is the best investment they could ever make. (HD) has bought back 25% of its shares since 2010 while the shares rose by 2,000%. Companies are now the sole net buyers of stock in the market. Buy (HD) on dips.

5) 11 Million Americans Paying Substantially Higher Taxes, thanks to the loss of $323 billion in local tax deductions. The cap is now set at $10,000. Complain to your congressman. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(GOLD IS BREAK OUT ALL OVER),

(GLD), (GDX), (NEM),

(THE STEM CELLS IN YOUR INVESTMENT FUTURE)

(CELG), (TMO), (REGN)

(WHY ETSY KNOCKED IT OUT OF THE PARK),

(ETSY), (AMZN), (WMT), (TGT), (JCP), (M)

 

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 27, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 27, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Jay Stays Dovish Again, but markets yawn this time. How much mileage can you get from the same vague assertion? Shorts are about to swarm the market. Take profits on all longs. Click here.

2) India Attack Gives Gold a Boost. Even its one-day war with Pakistan is positive for the barbarous relic. Buy Gold (GLD) on Dips. Click here.

3) US Dollar Hits a Three-Week Low. The Fed’s dovish leanings are hammering the buck. Keep loading the boat with weak dollar plays, like emerging markets (EEM). Click here.

4) Wynn Resorts Gets Hit with $20 Million Fine, by Nevada regulators for sexual misconduct of the management. Stock doesn’t care as worse was expected. Apparently, everything DOESN’T stay in Vegas. Avoid (WYNN). Click here.

5) Pending Home Sales Jump 4.6%, in January in a rare positive data point from real estate. Still down 2.3% YOY. Lower interest rates are a factor. The West was the weakest where prices are highest. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(WHY CHINA’S US TREASURY DUMP WILL CRUSH THE BOND MARKET),

(TLT), (TBT), ($TNX), (FCX), (FXE), (FXY), (FXA), (USO), (OXY), (ITB), (LEN), (HD), (GLD), (SLV), (CU),

(THE 13 NEW TRADING RULES FOR 2019)

(HOW AUTONOMOUS DRIVING WILL CHANGE THE WORLD),

(TSLA), (GM), (GOOGL)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 26, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 26, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Elon Musk is in Hot Water Again, with the SEC asking for a new contempt of court proceeding. The stock is doing a swan dive. Get ready to buy the dip. Apparently, the Fed standard for future auto sale forecasts is higher than Elon’s. Click here.

2) This Will be the Worst Year for Housing in a Decade, or so says a Reuters poll. High prices, the loss of tax deductions, and recession fears are weighing heavily on this market. Avoid. Click here.

3) Oil Sees Its Biggest Dive This Year, and not even a horrendous winter is helping. We now have 50 feet at Lake Tahoe this winter. Buy (USO) on the dip. Click here.

4) Companies are the Last Buyers in this Bull Market, with everyone and his brother using the strength to get out. Equity mutual funds still seeing huge net redemptions. Don’t buy stocks here on pain of death. Click here.

5) Netflix Wins Big on Oscar Night, as the Spanish speaking “Roma” picks up three Academy Awards. The Hollywood establishment thumbed their noses at the streaming giant by passing on “Best Picture.” If you want to play their game, you have to play by their rules. Still, the moat is getting too big to cross. Buy (NFLX) in dips. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(ABOUT THE TRADE ALERT DROUGHT),

(SPY), (GLD), (TLT), (MSFT),

(THE NEW OFFSHORE CENTER: AMERICA)

(TESTIMONIAL)

(WHY THE BIG PLAY IS IN SOFTWARE),

(AMZN), (WMT), (ZEN), (FB), (TWLO)

 

 

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 25, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 25, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Merger Fever Hits the Gold Industry, with Barrick Gold (GOLD) taking a run at Newmont Mining (NEM), the world’s first and second largest producers. It’s all about efficiencies of scale. Take this as a long-term bottom in gold prices. Click here.

2) China Tariff Hike Postponed Indefinitely, and Chinese stocks love it. Import duties stay at 10%, instead of rising by 25% starting on Friday. We knew it was never going to happen. Some 95% of the China trade deal is now already priced into the market. Click here.

3) GE Sells Biotech business for $21 Billion, They’re selling off the crown jewels to salvage the balance sheet. Stock loves it, up 11%. Click here.

4) Most Economists See Recession by 2021, at the latest. That really means it will really start in late 2020.  Sell those rallies. You don’t want to be left standing when the music stops playing. Click here.

5) Wholesale Inventories Rising Sharply, up 1.1% in another recession indicator.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE BEST OF TIMES AND THE WORST OF TIMES),

(SPY), (TLT), (TLT), (VIX), (KHC), (MAT), (MMT), (GLD)

(THE CLEANEST INTERNET PLAY OUT THERE),

(GDDY), (WIX), (CSCO)

My Pick Won Best Picture!

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 22, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 22, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Europe is Falling into Recession, and they will likely take us with them. February Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, a three-year low. You obviously haven’t been buying enough Burberry coats, Mercedes, or French wine. Click here.

2) US Crude Production Hits 12 Million Barrels a Day. That’s up 25% in a year. It’s been a long wait, but we finally did it! Goodbye OPEC. Buy US oil infrastructure plays like Schlumberger (SLB). Click here.

3) Feds Subpoena Kraft Heinz, and stock dives 27% over accounting problems. Warren Buffet takes a $4 billion hit. What really is in that ketchup anyway, besides sugar and red dye number two? Avoid (KHC). Click here.

4) Johnson & Johnson is Facing an Investigation Too, over rumors of asbestos in their baby powder. It’s probably a long-simmering urban legend. Ignore. Click here.

5) Consumer Reports Pulls its Tesla 3 Recommendation, citing reliability problems. Their customer support sucks too. Buy the dip in (TSLA). This is just a growing pain. Click here.

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(FEBRUARY 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),

(NVDA), (MU), (AMD), (LRCX), (GLD), (FXE), (FXB), (AMZN),

(PLAY IT SAFE WITH ANTHEM), (ANTM), (CI)

 

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 21, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 21, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Fed Pause Lives! Or so the minutes from the January FOMC meeting imply. Lower interest rates for longer offer more benefits than risks. Less heat from the president too. Click here.
 
2) Will a China Trade Deal Resume the Fed’s Interest Rates Hiking Schedule? If they do you can kiss this rally goodbye. Still, that’s Q2 business. Click here.

3) Existing Home Sales Fall 1.2%, in January. Down three months in a row to a three year low. Get used to this. Housing is going to stay weak for a while. Click here.

4) Durable Goods Dive 1.2%, in January in a big surprise. Notice that virtually all economic data reports are turning negative. Recession, here we come! Click here.

5) Amtrak to End Long Distance Trains, in order to focus more capital spending on commuter trains. From now on, you’ll have to see America by bus. I’ll miss the California Zephyr, which carried me from Chicago to the coast, as well as the Starlight Express, which transported me in luxury from San Francisco to Seattle. Congress will vote on the matter by yearend. That clickety-clack still rings in my ears. Click here.
 
Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101),

(SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL),

(VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE),

(BUY AMD ON THE DIP),

(AMD), (NVDA), (INTC),

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 20, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 20, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Walmart Sales Up 46% in Q4. Are they the next FANG? Same store sales jump at the fastest pace in ten years on soaring grocery sales. The Wall family certainly hopes so. Buy (WMT). Click here.

2) The Volatility Index Hits for $14 Handle for the First Time in Five Months. Suddenly, fire insurance is offered at a deep discount. Time to buy? Click here.

3) Gold Hits a Ten-Month High, and We are Long. The new supercycle for commodities has already started. Get on board before the train leaves the station. Buy (GLD). Click here.

4) Oil Hits a New 2019 High on China Trade Hopes. The Middle Kingdom is the world’s largest marginal buyer of new oil. Oh, and it’s a commodity too. Buy (USO). Click here.

5) Homebuilder Sentiment Rises for the First Time in Months, from 58 to 62. Absurdly, low-interest rates are finally having a positive effect. A rare piece of positive news from the sector. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE HAS ALREADY STARTED),

(COPX), (GLD), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO), (SIL),

(PPLT), (PALL), (GOLD), (ECH), (EWZ), (IDX),

(WHY THE REAL ESTATE BOOM HAS A DECADE TO RUN),

(DHI), (LEN), (PHM), (ITB)

(WAL-MART’S DRAMATIC SAVE),

(WMT), (AMZN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 19, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 19, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

 

1) Mad Hedge Hits New All-Time High, up 3.31% in February,  12.79% in 2019, and 32.90% on a trailing one-year basis. We’ve nailed every trend this year, long big tech, long gold, and short bonds. The harder I work the luckier I get. Click here.

2) High-End Real Estate Prices are Getting Cut by 30%. It seems billionaires are trying to grab a chair before the music stops playing. Click here.

3) Wednesday FOMC Minutes this Week May Tell the Whole Story. Is the Fed pausing because the economy is falling apart? If so, it’s terrible news for stocks just short of all-time highs. Add downside protection. Buy (SDS). Click here.

4) No Toys for Mattel, which saw the worst stock drop in 20 years on the back of poor earnings and worse guidance. Another leading indicator of a weak economy. Barbie isn’t putting out. Click here.

5) China Trade Talks Resume This Week. However, resolution by the March 1 deadline could trigger one of the greatest “Sell the news” events of all time. Add more downside hedges. Click here.
 

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:


(THE MARKET FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or ALARM BELLS ARE RINGING)

(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (AMZN)

THE SAFE PLACE TO HIDE IN TECH),

(CSCO), (ORCL), (WDAY), (ZEN), (HUBS), (NOW), (PYPL), (VEEV), (TWLO)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Hot Tips for February 15, 2019

Mad Hedge Hot Tips
February 15, 2019
Fiat Lux

The Five Most Important Things That Happened Today
(and what to do about them)

1) December Retail Sales Come in at a Disastrous Ten-Year Low. If you’re looking for an early recession indicator, this is a big one. Maybe it’s because the prices are falling so fast? Click here.

2) Amazon Tells New York to Drop Dead, as it cancels plans to build a second headquarters in New York, thanks to opposition from a local minority. More likely, they don’t want to expand their business ahead of a recession. Jeff Bezos can see into the future much better than we can. Click here.

3) Positive News on China Trade Talks Spike Markets. Unfortunately, this is probably the last 10% of the China trade deal rally. Look out below! Click here.

4) NVIDIA Beats, Stock Rocks, juicing the stock by 8%.  The top graphics card maker produced a slight increase in earnings when everyone was counting on a decline. This is an easy double over the long term. Buy (NVDA). Click here.

5) Car Sales Fall at the Fastest Rate in a Decade, as US Manufacturing Output drives off a cliff. There is also a subprime crisis going on here, if you haven’t heard. Click here.
  

Published today in the Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch and Mad Hedge Technology Letter:

(THE CONTINUING DEATH OF RETAIL),

(AMZN), (WMT), (M), (JWN),

(TESTIMONIAL)

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