Market Outlook for the Coming Week
If the massive crowding of vacation destinations is any indicator of the health of the economy, business is booming.
Here at Incline Village, Nevada the state beaches on pristine Lake Tahoe are closing at 10:00 AM because the parking lots are full.
My readers in Colorado complain of becoming prisoners in their own homes. Any attempt to venture out snares them in hopeless traffic jams of RV?s, fifth wheel trailers, and camper vans.
It is a global trend. There is a two-hour line to get into the Uffizi Gallery, in Florence, Italy. The wait to get into the Louvre in Paris is worse. Venice is so packed you can barely move.
This is what happens when all of the world?s central banks are reading from the same sheet of music. For the first time in decades, they are all doing whatever they can to stimulate their economies at the same time.
Markets have taken note.
US stocks earned three gold medals on Thursday, with the Dow Average, the S&P 500, and NASDAQ all hitting new all time highs at the same time. This hasn?t happened since 1999.
Institutional and individual cash levels are at historic highs, owners having been scared out of positions earlier this year by a weak China, Brexit, and Donald Trump.
With the recent earnings reporting season producing a much better than expected result, the consensus forecast for the Dow Average one year out is now over 20,000.
That is a gain of 7.5%, and 10% with dividends. That beats the daylights out of a cash return of zero.
The planet wants to buy on a dip. As a result, the dips aren?t happening.
I was hoping for a 4% correction in August, but those dreams appear dashed. It looks like only a 2% dip will have to do.
It all reminds me of the Tokyo stock market in 1987. Stocks were then expensive and over extended. But you know what? They rose for three more years. Premature bears got crushed.
It really is a ?close your eyes and buy? market. The slow grind up in share prices could continue for the rest of the year.
Notice also that the bond market (TLT) seems to be struggling here, repeatedly failing to break to new highs.
A stronger economy means weaker bond prices, interest rate rises sooner, and therefore a stronger dollar.
That?s why I am running a double short in the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS).
Everyone expects the US to be the first to raise rates, and the Japanese the last, if ever. Therefore, a yen short should be one of the big trades for the rest of 2016.
There isn?t much on the calendar for this week, and we still have another five days of volume destroying Olympic coverage. So volatility (VIX) will continue to probe new lows.
We have two Fed speakers in coming days, a moderate, Dennis Lockhart, on Tuesday and a hawk, James Bullard, on Wednesday. So the drift here may hint towards a September rate rise.
On Monday, August 15 at 8:30 AM EST the Empire State Manufacturing Survey should see some improvement.
On Wednesday at 2:00 PM we get FOMC Minutes, which could give us a clue on coming policy changes.
On Thursday 8:30 AM EST the Weekly Jobless Claims should confirm that employment remains at decade highs.
The week closes with a whimper with the Baker Hughes rig count on Friday at 1:00 PM EST. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past two months, driving oil prices lower.
The next potentially market moving event will be the Jackson Hole meeting of global central bankers, economists, bankers and policy makers which takes place on August 27-29.
That?s when what the Fed REALLY thinks could leak out.
I?m taking off now to score a prime spot on the beach. Maybe I?ll run into you there.
