Global Market Comments
September 20, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INTRODUCING THE MAD HEDGE BITCOIN PLATINUM SERVICE),
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE BATTLE OF THE 50-DAY),
(SPY), (TLT), (DIS), (BLOK), (MSTR), (QQQ), (EEM), (UUP)
Global Market Comments
September 20, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INTRODUCING THE MAD HEDGE BITCOIN PLATINUM SERVICE),
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE BATTLE OF THE 50-DAY),
(SPY), (TLT), (DIS), (BLOK), (MSTR), (QQQ), (EEM), (UUP)
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Global Market Comments
September 17, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS A DISASTER)
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
(SJB), (JNK), (HYG)
Global Market Comments
September 16, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG)
Global Market Comments
September 15, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS USA, INC. A SHORT?)
(TESTIMONIAL)
What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing $3 trillion a year and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion?
Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me from your Facebook account, and delete me from your Twitter network.
Yet, that is precisely what my former colleague at Morgan Stanley did a few years ago, technology guru Mary Meeker.
Now a partner at venture capital giant Kleiner Perkins, Mary has brought her formidable analytical talents to bear on analyzing the United States of America as a stand-alone corporation.
The bottom line: the challenges are so great they would daunt the best turnaround expert. The good news is that our problems are not hopeless or unsolvable.
The US government was a miniscule affair until the Great Depression and WWII when it exploded in size. Since 1965 when Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” began, GDP rose 2.7 times, while entitlement spending leaped 11.1 times.
If current trends continue, the Congressional Budget Office says that entitlements and interest payments will exceed all federal revenues by 2025.
Of course, the biggest problem is with healthcare spending, which will see no solution until healthcare costs are somehow capped. Despite spending more than any other nation, we get one of the worst results, with lagging quality of life, life spans, and infant mortality.
Some 28% of Medicare spending is devoted to a recipient’s final four months of life. Somewhere, there are emergency room cardiologists making a fortune off of this. A night in an American hospital costs 500% more than in any other country.
Social Security is an easier fix. Since it started in 1935, life expectancy has risen by 26% to 78, while the retirement age is up only 3% to 66. Any reforms have to involve raising the retirement age to at least 70 and means testing recipients. If you make $1 billion a year, you don’t need a monthly social security check.
The solutions to our other problems are simple but require political suicide for those making the case.
For example, you could eliminate all tax deductions, including those for home mortgage deductions, charitable contributions, IRA contributions, dependents, and medical expenses, and raise $1 trillion a year. That would only make a dent in our current $3 trillion a year budget deficit.
Mary reminds us that government spending on technology laid the foundations of our modern economy. If the old DARPANET had not been funded during the sixties, Google, Yahoo, eBay, Facebook, Cisco, and Oracle would be missing today. Tech generates about 50% of all the profits in the US today.
Global Positioning Systems (GPS) were also invented by and is still run by the government and has been another great wellspring of profits. (I got to use it during the 1980s while flying across Greenland when it was still top secret. The Air Force base that ran it was called “Sob Story”).
There are a few gaping holes in Mary’s “thought experiment”. I doubt she knows that the Treasury Department carries the value of America’s gold reserves, the world’s largest at 8,965 tons worth $832 billion, at only $34 an ounce, versus an actual current market price of $1,861. By the way, the stash has only been seen once in 50 years.
Nor is she aware that our ten aircraft carriers are valued at $1 each, against an actual cost of $10 billion each in today’s dollars. And what is Yosemite worth on the open market, or Yellowstone, or the Grand Canyon? These all render her net worth calculations meaningless.
No, the USA is not a short. In fact, it is a long term scream long. The arguments as to why show up in the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader every day of the year. During the publishing run of this letter, I have seen the Dow Average soar from 600 to 30,000.
How could I think otherwise?
Mary expounds at length on her analysis, which you can buy in a book entitled USA Inc. at Amazon by clicking here.
Thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer me back. I am going to hang in there.
I like your newsletter because the unbiased perspectives you share and the way in which you look at market opportunities in a realistic, factual manner. I am just hoping to turn that advantage into profit and learn.
I don’t like financial advisors as they open your account, offer canned advice, and disappear after they take your money. I want to have the independent skills needed to manage my own wealth, as I grow old.
I don’t expect that to happen overnight or without advice, but I am hoping that your newsletter is something above par not just in appearance, but in results.
Time will tell.
Thank you again for returning my emails. That says a lot.
Best,
Ryan
Hammond, New York
Global Market Comments
September 14, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON FOR SEPTEMBER 14-16),
(REMEMBERING 9/11)
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Global Market Comments
September 13, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT IS ON FOR SEPTEMBER 14-16),
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or VENTURING INTO THE METAVERSE
(SPY), (TLT), (VIX),
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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