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MHFTR

Expanding My “Trade Peace” Portfolio

Diary, Newsletter, Research

This morning, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin mentioned that an effort was being made to get trade talks with China back on track. The Dow soared 160 points in a heartbeat.

Past murmurings by the Treasury Secretary demonstrate that his musings have zero credibility in the marketplace and the move vaporized in minutes. However, given the extreme moves made by the shares of trade war victims, I think it is time to review my “Trade Peace” portfolio and make some additions.

The shares have been so beaten up that I think you can start scaling in now with limited downside and a ton of potential upside.

It’s not a matter of if, but when Trump has to run up the white flag with his wildly unpopular trade wars. As they now stand the new tariffs are threatening to chop $10 off of S&P 500 earnings in 2018, from $168 down to $158, according to J.P. Morgan. Some two-thirds of all U.S. companies have been negatively impacted.

Tariffs have effectively wiped out the benefits of the corporate tax cuts for most companies enacted last December. Who has been the worst hit? Thousands of small manufacturers in Midwest red states that can’t function because they are missing crucial cheap parts they can only obtain from the Middle Kingdom.

At last count there are a staggering 37,000 applications for exemptions from tariffs filed with the U.S. Treasury and only a dozen people to process them. A mere 10% have been granted. It is a giant bureaucratic nightmare.

With the midterm elections now only 37 trading days away, the clock is ticking. If Trump doesn’t cut trade deals with all of our major counterparties around the world before then, the Republican Party stands to lose both the House of Representatives and the Senate on November 6. That will make Trump a “lame duck” president for two more years.

China Technology Stocks – Includes Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), and Tencent (TCTZF). It’s not often that you get to buy a company with 61% sales growth, which has seen its shares plunge by 27% in three months, as is the case with (BABA). Just to get (BABA) back up to its June level it has to rise by 37%. This is a stock that will easily double or triple over the long term.

U.S. Semiconductor Stocks – With China buying 80% of its chips from the U.S., stocks such as Micron Technology (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) have been taken out to the woodshed and beaten senseless. Micron is off a withering 41% since the trade war began in earnest in May.

Emerging Markets – China is the largest trading partner for most of the world, and a recession there sparks a global contagion effect. Reverse that, and you stimulate not only emerging markets, but the U.S. economy, too. Look at the charts for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and you will salivate.

Oil – Boost the global economy and oil demand (USO) also. China is the world’s largest incremental buyer of new oil, and it will absorb all of the Iranian crude freed up by the U.S. abrogation of the treaty there.

Agricultural – No sector has been punished more than agriculture, where profit margins are small, lead times stretch into years, and mother nature plays her heavy hand. In this area you can include soybeans (SOYB), corn (CORN), and wheat (WEAT), as well as equipment makers Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE).

Some 20 years of development efforts in China by American farmers have gone down the toilet, and much of this business is never coming back. Trust and reliability are gone for good. Storage silos across the country are full. Did I mention that red states are taking far and away the biggest hit? There are not a lot of soybeans grown in California, New York, or New Jersey.

Even if Trump digs in and refuses to admit defeat, as is his way, there is still a light at the end of the tunnel. Sometime in 2019, the World Trade Organization will declare virtually all of the new American tariffs illegal and hit the U.S. with its own countervailing duties. This is the Chinese strategy. Waiting for them to fold could be a long wait, a very long wait.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time to Look at the “Trade Peace” Portfolio?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Surrender-white-flag-story-1-image-8-e1536787109717.jpg 150 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-13 01:07:552018-09-12 21:31:08Expanding My “Trade Peace” Portfolio
MHFTR

September 12, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

THE FUTURE OF AI ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(THE NEW AI BOOK THAT INVESTORS ARE SCRAMBLING FOR),
(GOOG), (FB), (AMZN), MSFT), (BABA), (BIDU),
(TENCENT), (TSLA), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU), (LRCX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-12 01:07:272018-09-11 20:53:08September 12, 2018
MHFTR

September 12, 2018 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

“I’m prepared to eat our children because if I don’t, somebody else will,” said Sir Martin Sorrell about the extreme competitiveness of online marketing.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Martin-Sorrell-quote-of-the-day-e1536698273639.jpg 234 350 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-12 01:05:422018-09-11 20:52:01September 12, 2018 - Quote of the Day
MHFTR

September 11, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 11, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(A NOTE ON ASSIGNED OPTIONS,
OR OPTIONS CALLED AWAY), (MSFT),
(TEN MORE REASONS WHY BONDS WON’T CRASH),
(TLT), (TBT), (ELD), (MUB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-11 01:08:422018-09-10 20:45:25September 11, 2018
MHFTR

September 10, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 10, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2018, HOUSTON
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON INVITATION),
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or “IT WASN’T ME!”),
(AMZN), (NKE), (SPY), (PCG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-10 01:08:582018-09-07 20:49:09September 10, 2018
MHFTR

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or “It Wasn’t Me!”

Diary, Newsletter

First of all, I want to confirm absolutely and without any doubt that I did not write the anonymous and controversial New York Times op-ed entitled “I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration.” It wasn’t me.

During the 1970s I tried to write for the Grey Lady about the Chinese Cultural Revolution, the threat to the U.S. posed by the Japanese auto industry, and the coming appreciation of the Japanese yen. But they would have none of it.

That’s because they only ran copy from their own full-time journalists and didn’t accept work from freelancers. The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, The Economist, no problem. The New York Times, no way Jose.

Anyway, anyone with any knowledge of military aviation knows who wrote it. Yes, it’s that obvious.

I was driving over the Oakland Bay Bridge on my way to San Francisco the other day and what I saw stunned me.

This time of year, you usually see 18 enormous Chinese container ships waiting to offload their cargo at the Port of Oakland in the run-up to the Christmas shopping season. This time I saw only 10.

Either the Chinese are sending their toys, electronics, and apparel to other U.S. ports, or they are not sending them at all. If it’s the latter it means that U.S. consumer demand is about to fall off a cliff, driven away by the high prices demanded by the new 25% import duties.

I called around to see if this was just a local problem. In fact, U.S. port landings are down 10% year on year, and off by a dramatic 25% in the hardest hit ports such as New Orleans, a major agricultural exporter.

If this is true, the consequences for U.S. investors are dire.

Let me give you one of my secret trading insights borne of a half century of stock market research. Real world observations front run official government data releases by three to six months. This is why I spend so much time in the field kicking tires, chatting up store managers, and flying over auto landing docks. If this is true, you could see early signs of a recession by early 2019.

The August Nonfarm Payroll Report came in at 201,000 on Friday, with the headline Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.9%. June and July were revised down by 50,000 jobs.

The real news here is that Average Hourly Earnings popped to 2.9%, the biggest gain in nine years, proving that inflation is edging its way closer.

Health Care added 33,000 jobs, Construction 23,000, and Transportation up 20,000. Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs, a victim of the trade wars, while Retail lost 5,000.

The U-6 broader “discouraged worker” unemployment fell to 7.4%, a new decade low. Certainly, the job market is firing on all cylinders.

The news gave us a nice little gap down in our short position in the bond market, taking the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up to 2.95%, a one month high.

Still, you have to wonder why the stock market behaved so poorly after the release of such a healthy number. Was it “buy the rumor, sell the news,” the September effect, or the end of the 8 ½-year bull market? Obviously, I came out of my long (VXX) position too soon.

All doubts were removed when the president delivered a sucker punch to stocks by announcing new tariffs on a further $267 billion in Chinese imports. This is on top of the duties that applied to $200 billion of imports on Monday. The trade war steps up another notch. Now ALL Chinese imports are subject to punitive U.S. duties.

Amazon (AMZN) finally topped $1 trillion in market capitalization, delivering for my followers a ten-bagger on a recommendation I made several years ago.

Nike (NKE) delivered the ad campaign of the century, led by former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Just think of all the new demand created in the market by all those burning shoes.

The State of California passed a bill to stick the utility PG&E (PCG) with the bill for last year’s big fires. The company will pass it on to rate payers. Thank goodness I went all solar three years ago!

With the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index diving from 78 to 52 we definitely got some topping action in the market, and our short positions paid off handsomely. Both of my remaining positions are making money, my longs in Microsoft (MSFT) and my short in the U.S. Treasury bond market (TLT).

We are off to the races in September, giving us a robust return of 1.37%. My 2018 year-to-date performance has clawed its way back up to 28.39% and my nine-year return appreciated to 304.86%. The Averaged Annualized Return stands at 34.51%. The more narrowly focused Mad Hedge Technology Fund Trade Alert performance is annualizing now at an impressive 29.59%.

This coming week only has one important data release, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon.

On Monday, September 10, at 3:00 PM, July Consumer Credit is out and should be at an all-time high as people max out their credit cards at the top of an economic cycle.

On Tuesday, September 11, at 6:00 AM, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is released at 6:00 AM.

On Wednesday, September 12, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve discloses its Beige Book, which includes the data from the 12 Fed districts the Federal Open Market Committee at its September 19-20 meeting.

Thursday, September 13 leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw an amazing fall of 10,000 last week to 203,000.

On Friday, September 14, at 9:15 AM, we learn August Industrial Production. The Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.

As for me,

Good luck and good trading.

 

41.79% Trailing One Year Return

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It Wasn’t Me!

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/trailing-one-year-image-1.jpg 346 509 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-10 01:06:432018-09-07 20:47:58The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or “It Wasn’t Me!”
MHFTR

September 7, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 7, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MONDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2018, ATLANTA, GA,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SEPTEMBER 5 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(AMZN), (MU), (MSFT), (LRCX), (GOOGL), (TSLA),
(TBT), (EEM), (PIN), (VXX), (VIX), (JNK), (HYG), (AAPL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-07 01:08:042018-09-07 00:58:01September 7, 2018
MHFTR

September 5 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader September 5 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.

As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!

Q: Do you think the collapse of commodity prices in the U.S. will affect the U.S. election?

A: Absolutely, it will if you count agricultural products as commodities, which they are. We have thousands of subscribers in the Midwest and many are farmers up to their eyeballs in corn, wheat, and soybeans. It won’t swing the entire farm vote to the Democratic party because a lot of farmers are simply lifetime Republicans, but it will chip away at the edges. So, instead of winning some of these states by 15 points, they may win by 5 or 3 or 1, or not at all. That’s what all of the by-elections have told us so far.

Q: What will be the first company to go to 2 trillion?

A: Amazon, for sure (AMZN). They have so many major business lines that are now growing gangbusters; I think they will be the first to double again from here. After having doubled twice within the last three years, it would really just be a continuation of the existing trend, except now we can see the business lines that will actually take Amazon to a much bigger company.

Q: Is this a good entry point for Micron Technology (MU)?

A: No, the good entry point was in the middle of August. We are at an absolute double bottom here. Wait for the tech washout to burn out before considering a re-entry. Also, you want to buy Micron the day before the trade war with China ends, since it is far and away its largest customer.

Q: Is Micron Technology a value trap?

A: Absolutely not, this is a high growth stock. A value trap is a term that typically applies to low price, low book to value, low earning or money losing companies in the hope of a turnaround.

Q: I didn’t get the Microsoft (MSFT) call spread when the alert went out — should I add it on here?

A: No, I am generally risk-averse this month; let’s wait for that 4% correction in the main market before we consider putting any kind of longs on, especially in technology stocks which have had great runs.

Q: How do you see Lam Research (LRCX)?

A: Long term it’s another double. The demand from China to build out their own semiconductor industry is exponential. Short term, it’s a victim of the China trade war. So, I would hold back for now, or take short-term profits.

Q: Is this a good entry point for Google (GOOGL)?

A: No, wait for a better sell-off. Again, it’s the main market influencing my risk aversion, not the activity of individual stocks. It also may not be a bad idea to wait for talk of a government investigation over censorship to die down.

Q: Would you buy Tesla (TSLA)?

A: No, buy the car, not the stock. There are just too many black swans out there circling around Tesla. It seems to be a disaster a week, but then every time you sell off it runs right back up again. Eventually, on a 10-year view I would be buying Tesla here as I believe they will eventually become the world’s largest car company. That is the view of the big long-term value players, like T. Rowe Price and Fidelity, who are sticking with it. But regarding short term, it’s almost untradable because of the constant titanic battle between the shorts and the longs. At 26% Tesla has the largest short interest in the market.

Q: I’m long Microsoft; is it time to buy more?

A: No, I would wait for a bit more of a sell-off unless you’re a very short-term trader.

Q: What would you do with the TBT (TBT) calls?

A: I would buy more, actually; preferably at the next revisit by the ProShares Ultra Short 20 Year Plus Treasury ETF (TBT) to $33. If we don’t get there, I would just wait.

Q: What’s your suggestion on our existing (TLT) 9/$123-$126 vertical bear put spread?

A: It expires in 12 days, so I would run it into expiration. That way the spread you bought at $2.60 will expire worth $3.00. We’re 80% cash now, so there is no opportunity cost of missing out with other positions.

Q: Do you like emerging markets (EEM)?

A: Only for the very long term; it’s too early to get in there now. (EEM) really needs a weak dollar and strong commodities to really get going, and right now we have the opposite. However, once they turn there will be a screaming “BUY” because historically emerging nations have double the growth rate of developed ones.

Q: Do you like the Invesco India ETF (PIN)?

A: Yes, I do; India is the leading emerging market ETF right now and I would stick with it. India is the next China. It has the next major infrastructure build-out to do, once they get politics, regulation, and corruption out of the way.

Q: Do you trade junk bonds (JNK), (HYG)?

A: Only at market tops and market bottoms, and we are at neither point. When the markets top out, a great short-selling opportunity will present itself. But I am hiding my research on this for now because I don’t want subscribers to sell short too early.

Q: With the (VXX), I bought the ETF outright instead of the options, what should I do here?

A: Sell for the short term. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has a huge contango that runs against it, which makes long-term holds a terrible idea. In this respect it is similar to oil and natural gas ETFs. Contango is when long-term futures sell at a big premium to short-term ones.

Q: How much higher for Apple (AAPL)?

A: It’s already unbelievably high, we hit $228 yesterday. Today it’s $228.73, a new all-time high. When it was at $150, my 2018 target was initially $200. Then I raised it to $220. I think it is now overbought territory, and you would be crazy to initiate a new entry here. We could be setting up for another situation where the day they bring out all their new phones in September, the stock peaks for the year and sells off shortly after.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/John-and-friend-story-2-image-e1536281214497.jpg 400 300 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-07 01:06:262018-09-07 00:57:05September 5 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A
MHFTR

September 6, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 6, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2018, MIAMI, FL,
GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(HOW THE RISK PARITY TRADERS ARE RUINING EVERYTHING!),
(VIX), (SPY), (TLT),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-06 01:09:502018-09-05 21:11:32September 6, 2018
MHFTR

September 5, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JOIN US AT THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA, CONFERENCE,
OCTOBER 26-27, 2018),
(THE HIGH COST OF TRADE TARIFFS),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 MHFTR https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png MHFTR2018-09-05 01:09:272018-09-04 21:13:31September 5, 2018
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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