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DougD

September 23, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?It is by the goodness of God that in our country we have those three unspeakably precious things: freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, and the prudence never to practice either of them.? said the 19th century American humorist, Mark Twain.

norman-rockwell-man-being-counted

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Norman-Rockwell-Man-Being-Counted-e1474599279707.jpg 300 230 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-23 01:05:382016-09-23 01:05:38September 23, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

September 22, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 22, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(CALIFORNIA UPS ITS GAME AGAINST GLOBAL WARNING),
(PCG), (AAPL),
(TEN REASONS WHY BONDS WON?T CRASH),
(TLT), (TBT), (ELD), (MUB)

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (PCG)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Lcl Dbt ETF (ELD)
iShares National Muni Bond (MUB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-22 01:08:432016-09-22 01:08:43September 22, 2016
DougD

California Ups Its Game Against Global Warming

Diary, Newsletter

California has raised the bar again in its relentless war on greenhouses gases.

Last week Governor Jerry Brown signed SB32 mandating that the Golden State reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020. It is far and away the most ambitious such program anywhere in the world today.

I mention this because California is often the leader in groundbreaking legislation and technologies.

You know the national requirements for catalytic converters, safety glass, and seat belts for Detroit- manufactured cars? They all started here in CA. Your state, or country, won?t be far behind.

The bill is only the latest in a long line of attempts to halt global warming, which our Latin-speaking governor has made a hallmark of his administration.

Greenhouse gases have fallen by 9.5% since peaking in 2004 at 487.6 million metric tons. This has been largely due to the state?s three public utility companies closing the last of their coal burning power plants and shifting to cleaner burning natural gas. Improved car emissions and the rise of hybrid and electric vehicles have also helped.

This reduction has been effected with minimal economic cost. The State?s GDP has risen by 19% over the same time period, and that includes the Great Recession of 2008-2009. US real GDP rose by 18.5% over the same period.

California also hosts the planet's strictest ?Cap and Trade? system, which was implemented in 2012. A carbon tax by any other name, Sacramento sets an annual limit on the amount of carbon dioxide that can be released into the atmosphere each year, which is cut annually.

It then requires businesses, like refineries and electric power utilities, to buy a permit for every ton of greenhouse gases they spew into the atmosphere. The floor price has most recently been set at $12.73 a ton. The money raised, some $4 billion so far, is then used to finance other greenhouse reduction policies.

A big beneficiary has been California?s troubled and long-delayed High Speed Rail project, a plan to build an electric bullet train from San Francisco to Los Angeles, and ultimately to San Diego and Las Vegas.

Who is the biggest buyer of these permits? My own local utility, Pacific Gas and Electric (PCG/PC), who I sell power to, generated by my own personal solar panel array. They get whatever my Tesla Model S-1 doesn?t use.

Permit sales ran smoothly for four years. However, the program has recently run into difficulties. In the spring of 2016, only 10.5% of the needed permits sold. Fears that the entire system might get upended in the courts caused buyers to back away.

The oil industry has cobbled together a coalition of carbon-based energy producers with the California Chamber of Commerce to end the program when it comes up for renewal in 2020. Brown has threatened to fight them by sponsoring a statewide initiative that would almost certainly pass in a future election.

California is the founder of the global anti emissions movement for good reason. During the 1960s, the smog in Los Angeles was so severe that you couldn?t see 100 yards.

It rivaled the choking smog found in Beijing today. ?Smog Alerts? were declared by health officials to keep children indoors, including me.

California also boasts the world?s most ambitious alternative energy targets, which must reach 33% of total power production by 2020, and 50% by 2030. Ample state and federal subsidies have been made available to make this happen.

Still, before you ask, they pale in comparison to the $55 billion a year in federal subsidies the oil industry received in the form of the oil depletion allowance.

It is no surprise then that San Francisco has become the epicenter of a global alternative energy industry, be it in solar, geothermal, batteries, other storage or biodiesel. Not only does the industry receive enthusiastic local support, but it knows it has an ample base of local consumers who will beta test and buy their new products and services.

Want an app that will locate the nearest charging station? No Problem!

Hardly a day goes by without a young Berkeley or Stanford engineering student asking me where to focus his career. My answer is always the same: stay away from biodiesel. It?s not scalable, and smells like you know what. The future is in solar.

Ultimately, it is energy consumers who end of footing the bill for all of this. It is estimated that Cap and Trade alone has added 11 cents to the cost of a gallon of gasoline for California drivers. It is financing an industry that, if successful, will ultimately put it out of business.

There are, in fact, so many conflicting and competing alternative energy and anti global warming programs and subsidies that it can get downright confusing.

So far, the state's weary taxpayers have been tolerant. But, if you are already driving a Tesla, Leaf, Bolt, BMWi, the soon-to-be Apple McLaren electric race car, or any of the other myriad low-end electric cars to come, who cares?

To read more on this topic, please read my exhaustive research by clicking here for ?How to Buy a Solar System? and here for ?The Ten Baggers in Solar Energy? .

ca-gdp

20 Years of California GDP Growth

us-gdp85 Years of Real US GDP Growth

Solar Panel Installation 2
car-wash

Clean Power is the Way to Go

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Car-Wash-e1474495650844.jpg 223 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-22 01:07:232016-09-22 01:07:23California Ups Its Game Against Global Warming
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ten Reasons Why Bonds Won?t Crash

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I have never been one to run with the pack.

I'm the guy who eternally marches to a different drummer, not in the next town, but the other hemisphere.

I would never want to join a club that would lower its standards so far that it would invite me as a member.

On those rare times when I do join the lemmings, I am punished severely.

Like everyone and his brother, his fraternity mate, and his long lost cousin, I thought bonds would fall this year and interest rates would rise.

After all, this is normally what you get in the seventh year of an economic recovery. This is usually when corporate America starts to expand capacity and borrow money with both hands, driving rates up.

Although I was wrong on the market direction, Treasury bonds have been one of my top performing asset classes this year. I used every spike in prices to buy (TLT) vertical put spreads $3-$5 in the money, and raked in profits almost every month.

Of course, looking back with laser-sharp 20/20 hindsight, it is so clear why fixed income securities of every description have been on a tear all year.

I will give you ten reasons why bonds won't crash. In fact, they may not reach a 3% yield for at least another five years.
?
1) The Federal Reserve is pushing on a string, attempting to force companies to increase hiring, keeping interest rates at artificially low levels.

My theory on why this isn?t working is that companies have become so efficient, thanks to hyper accelerating technology, that they don?t need humans anymore. They also don?t need to add capacity.

?2) The US Treasury wants low rates to finance America?s massive $19 trillion national debt. Move rates from 0% to 6% and you have an instant financial crisis.

3) With Japan and Europe in a currency price war and a race to the bottom, the world is sending its money to the US to chase higher interest rates. An appreciating greenback which is now at close to a five-year peak is also funneling more money into bonds.

The choices for ten-year government bonds are Japan at 0.4%, Germany at 0.0%,?Switzerland at a negative -0.48% and the US at 1.65%. It all makes our bonds look like a screaming bargain.

4) Since the 2009 peak, the US budget deficit has fallen the fastest in history, down 75% from $1.6 trillion to a mere $400 billion, and lower numbers beckon.

Obama?s tax hikes did a lot to shore up the nation?s balance sheet. A growing economy also throws off a ton more in tax revenues. As a result, the Treasury is issuing far fewer bonds, creating a shortage.

5) This recovery has been led by small ticket auto purchases, not big ticket home purchases. The last real estate crash is still too recent a memory for many traumatized buyers, at least for those few who can get a mortgage. This keeps loan demand weak, and interest rates at subterranean levels.

6) The Fed?s policy of using asset price inflation to spur the economy has been wildly successful. Bonds are included in these assets, and they have benefited the most.

7) New rules imposed by Dodd-Frank force institutional investors to hold much larger amounts of bonds than in the past.

8) The concentration of wealth with the top 1% also generates more bond purchases. It seems that once you become a billionaire, you become ultra conservative and only invest in safe fixed income products.

This is happening globally. For more on this, click here for ?The 1% and the Bond Market?.

9) Inflation? Come again? What?s that? Commodity, energy, precious metal, and food prices are disappearing up their own exhaust pipes. Industrial revolutions produce deflationary centuries, and we have just entered the third one in history (after no. 1, steam, and no. 2, electricity).

10) The psychological effects of the 2008-2009 crash were so frightening that many investors will never recover. That means more bond buying and less buying of all other assets. I can?t tell you how many investment advisors I know who have converted their practices to bond only ones.

Having said all of that, I am selling bonds short once again on the next substantial rally. Call me an ornery, stubborn, stupid old man.

But hey, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes.

tlt tbt eld mub

John ThomasAm I Stubborn or Just Plain Stupid?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/John-Thomas3-e1474487555368.jpg 400 276 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-09-22 01:06:152016-09-22 01:06:15Ten Reasons Why Bonds Won?t Crash
DougD

September 21, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 21, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY TRADERS),
(WFM), (COST),
(AMERICA?S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE AND YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO),
(TESTIMONIAL)

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-21 01:09:172016-09-21 01:09:17September 21, 2016
DougD

The League of Extraordinary Traders

Diary, Newsletter

I never cease to be impressed with the readers of this newsletter.

I was reminded of this once again at my luncheon in Portland, Oregon last week, held at the exclusive Ringside Fish House, a purveyor of the outstanding Pacific Northwest seafood for which the City of Roses is rightly proud.

Luncheon attendees seem to fall into three categories.

1) Entrepreneurs whose businesses have become so successful that they are throwing off plenty of excess cash to invest. This leads them to an online search (they are also technically very savvy) that brought them to my newsletter.

One of my Portland guests runs a manufacturing business that builds drones. In five years his gross revenues have rocketed from $400,000 a year to $40 million, and he says the best has yet to come. Two years ago, the Federal Aviation Administration predicted that there would be 1,500 drones in the air by 2020. Today, there are 220,000.

Interestingly, he says he is now besieged by constant foreign takeover offers. These are from European and Asian firms that have gone ex growth and are desperately searching for new profit streams at any cost. So far, he has rebuffed all comers.

2) Financial advisors who have been following my long-term macro and trading advice and who have also become very successful. Winning financial advisors always have new clients and cash coming which they need to know how to invest.

3) Young men and women in their twenties and thirties who dropped out of the mainstream economy and taught themselves to become professional full time traders. Perhaps several hundred earn a full time living just off of my own Trade Alerts. This business has taken a quantum leap with my introduction of the Mad Options Trader service.

My firsthand observations of the economy indicate that it is in no way performing at a suboptimal 2% GDP growth rate.

Airplanes going anywhere are all full. The airports are packed. The cost of overnight parking in San Francisco has risen by 50%. The free electric charging stations, of which there are now 50, are always full.

Mt favorite Pendleton store in Portland no longer has sales. It?s full price for everything everywhere now. People have plenty of money to spend.

Stores are stocking more expensive, higher margin profits, and offering imaginative displays.

Placing your goods on worn out industrial heavy machines is a popular approach in Portland. I spent more time analyzing the machines than the goods for sale.

The irony is rich.

Restaurants are more expensive too, and always full, and also making the grab for higher margins. They now offer food that is gluten free, locally grown, and ?artisanal?.

When I ordered a steak, I was informed that it was hormone and? preservative free. I asked if I could have one WITH hormones and preservatives, as they put hair on my chest and preserve me.

No wonder everyone thinks I?m weird.

Of course, the ultimate expression of this strategy can be found in Portland?s burgeoning marijuana industry.

Huge billboards along the freeways offer ?organic? pot by the kilo. It seems they too are seeking that 30% mark up that Whole Foods (WFM) and Costco (COST) reap from organic groceries.

Yet there is evidence too of the failed America, the people who got left behind. At one stoplight I encountered a family of four holding a big sign in the pouring rain pleading ?We need money?.

They had recently been evicted from their home. All had serious health problems and were morbidly obese. They looked legit. Maybe it was a health-care-induced bankruptcy?

I asked no questions, made no judgments and gave them $20. They reacted like they had won the lottery.

The country clearly is not perfect.

wfm
cost
director-park-events

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Director-Park-Events-e1474423146766.jpg 400 295 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-21 01:08:112016-09-21 01:08:11The League of Extraordinary Traders
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

America?s Demographic Collapse and Your Stock Portfolio

Diary, Free Research, Newsletter

As a long term observer of America?s demographic picture, I was shocked to hear of a recent report from the US Census Bureau (click here for the website).

The US population grew by a scant 0.72% in 2012, the lowest since 1942.

You can?t start or expand a family when an essential partner in the process is off fighting WWII, and there were 17 million of them.

This is far below the 2.09% replacement rate that the country was holding on to only a few years ago.

At the end of 2012, there were 316,128,839 Americans. This accounts for 4.4% of the global population of 7,137,577,750, which was up 1.1%. If the growth rate remained the same, there are more than 317 million of us by now.

This places American population growth at the bottom of the international sweepstakes, down with Italy (0.32%), Germany (0.11%), and Poland (0.02%).

According to the World Bank, 22 countries suffered population declines, like Portugal (-0.29%) and Japan (-0.20%) (click here for the website).

The tiny Sultanate of Oman, one of my old stomping grounds as a military pilot, enjoys the planet?s highest growth rate at 9.13%.

The obvious cause here was the weakness of the US economy. There is a high correlation between economic health and fertility a year later.

So we can only hope that the modest improvement in the economy this year will send more to the maternity ward.

If it doesn?t, it could be great news for your investment portfolio. Fewer births today translate into a shortage of workers in 20 years. That brings rising wages, flying inflation, rapid price hikes, and a housing boom.

Corporate profits go through the roof, as does the stock market. It also produces fewer relying on government services in 40 years, which makes it easier for the government to balance the budget.

This Goldilocks scenario is already scheduled for the coming decade of the 2020s, when a 15-year demographic headwind flips to a tailwind, thanks to the coming demise of the ?baby boomer? generation, now a big cost to the economy.

The new data suggests that the next ?roaring twenties? could extend into the 2030?s and beyond.

California was the most populous state, with over 38 million, followed by Texas and New York. Two states saw population declines, Maine and West Virginia, where the collapse of the coal industry is sucking the life out of local businesses.

Parsing through the report, it is clear that prediction of population trends is becoming vastly more complicated, thanks to the increasingly minestrone-like makeup of the US people.

By 2040 no single group will be a majority. That is already the case in San Francisco, and will be true for the entire State of California by 2020.

America will come to resemble other, much smaller multiethnic societies, like Singapore, South Africa, England, Israel, and Switzerland. This explains much about the current state of politics in the US.

Texas saw the greatest increase in population, with a jump of 387,397, to 26,020,000, as people flock in to take advantage of the big increase in local government hiring there.

Some 80% of new Texans were Hispanic and Black, confirming my belief that the Lone Star State will become the next battleground in presidential elections.

This is why gerrymandering (redistricting) is such a big deal there, with the white establishment battling to hang on to power at any cost.

Further complicating any serious analysis is the rapid decline of the traditional American nuclear family where married parents live with their children.

With a vast concentration of wealth at the top, and a long-term decline of middle class standards of living, this is increasingly becoming a luxury reserved for a prosperous elite.

As a result, the country?s birthrate has declined by half since 1960.

Those who do procreate are having fewer kids, the average family size dropping from three to two. In 1964, the final year of the baby boom, 36% of Americans were under the age of 18.

Today, that figure is just 23.5%, and is expected to fall to 21% by 2050. Only 80% of women have children now, compared to 90% in the 1970s.

One possible explanation is that the cost of child rearing has soared to $241,080 per child now. Rocketing college costs are another barrier, with 70% of high school grads at least starting some higher education.

I was a bargain as a kid, costing my parents only a tenth of that. I went to Boy Scouts and Little League baseball, each of which cost $1 a month. A full scholarship covered by college expenses.

When I look at the checks I have written for my own children for ski lessons, soccer, youth sailing, braces, international travel and assorted masters degrees, I recoil in horror.

Fewer women are following that old adage of ?marriage before carriage.? Some 41% of children are born out of wedlock, up 400% in 40 years.

It is definitely an education and class driven divide. Only 10% of college-educated mothers are still single, compared to 57% for those with a high school education or less.

It is a truism in the science of demographics that educated women have fewer children. It makes possible careers that enable them to bring home paychecks instead of babies.

Blame Roe versus Wade, the Equal Rights Act, and Title Nine, but every social reform benefiting women of the past half century has helped send the birthrate plummeting.

More women wearing the pants in the family hurts the fertility rate as well, as they are unable, or unwilling, to bear the large families of yore. The share of families where women are the primary breadwinners has leapt from 11% to 40% since 1960.

When couples do marry, they are sometimes of the same sex, now that gay marriage is legal in 16 states, further muddying traditional data sources. Some 2 million children are now being raised by gay parents. In fact, there is a gay baby boom underway, which those in the community call the ?gayby? boom.?

All female couples have produced one million children over the last 30 years, 95% of whom select blond haired, blue eyed, Aryan sperm donors who are over six feet tall ($40 a shot for donors if you guys are interested and live walking distance from UC Berkeley. I?m told that water polo players are particularly favored).

The numbers are so large that it is impacting the makeup of the US population.

There was a time when I could usually identify the people standing next to me on San Francisco BART trains. That time has long passed. Now I don?t have a clue.

Whenever we go to war, we become our enemy to a modest degree, both as a people and a culture.

After WWII, 50,000 German and 50,000 Japanese wives were brought home as war brides. Sushi, hot tubs and Volkswagens quickly followed.

The problem is that the US has invaded another 20 countries since 1945, and is now maintaining a military presence in 140. That generates a hell of a lot of green cards.

This has spawned sizable Korean, and later, Iranian communities in Los Angeles, a Vietnamese one in Louisiana, a Somali enclave in Minneapolis, and a large minority of Afghans in San Jose.

The fall of the Soviet Union in 1992 unleashed another dozen Eastern European ethnic groups and languages on the US. Have you noticed the proliferation of Arab fast food restaurants in your neighborhood since we sent 20 divisions to the Middle East?

What all this means is that the grand experiment called the United States is entering a new phase.

Different ethnic, racial, religious, and even political groups are blending with each other to create a population unseen in the history of the world, with untold economic consequences. It is also setting up an example for other countries to follow.

Get
your investment portfolio out in front of it, and you could prosper mightily.

Birthrates

Marriage & Divorce

Marrying Later

ChildrenIgnore Demographics at Your Portfolio?s Peril

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Children-e1445627473511.jpg 266 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-09-21 01:07:012016-09-21 01:07:01America?s Demographic Collapse and Your Stock Portfolio
DougD

September 20, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 20, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF A TRUMP WIN),
(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD ON FACEBOOK),
(FB)

Facebook, Inc. (FB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-20 01:08:562016-09-20 01:08:56September 20, 2016
DougD

September 19, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
September 19, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK),
(T), (SPG), (HYG), (EEM), (ELD), (CYB), (FXY), (FXE)
(A CONVERSATION WITH THE BOOTS ON THE GROUND),
(OCTOBER 21st SAN FRANCISCO, CA GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)

AT&T, Inc. (T)
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG)
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Lcl Dbt ETF (ELD)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-19 01:09:502016-09-19 01:09:50September 19, 2016
DougD

Market Outlook for the Coming Week

Diary, Newsletter

I think you can pretty much expect things to remain on hold until the Fed announces its interest rate decision next Wednesday afternoon.

That is when all financial markets will explode to the upside, the downside, or both.

So, I am going into the big day 100% in cash to take advantage of the sudden bouts of volatility.

Long-term portfolio managers should just turn off the TV and go to sleep. The moves are going to be too tight and rapid for you to trade, and we are going to new all time highs by year end anyway.

The really interesting thing about the charts below is that virtually the entire yield sensitive space is approaching major medium term support levels.

That means they could all rocket in unison if the Fed takes no action which is what I expect they will do.

That would include utilities (T), REITs (SPG), junk bonds (HYG), emerging market stocks (EEM), bonds (ELD), master limited partnerships and currencies: the Yuan (CYB), the Yen (FXY) and the Euro (FXE).

In the meantime, we have a market that has become incredibly concentrated. Of the 127 point move up in the Dow Average during the first four days of last week, an amazing 67% was accounted for by Apple (AAPL).

By the way, I have been predicting all year that Steve Jobs? creation would spike around now, and I have been proved dead on. You're welcome to those of you who bought in the spring at $92 on my advice.

If the Fed is truly data dependent, this is what the last raft of numbers looked like.

August Retail Sales dropped by 0.3%, Core Retail Sales by 0.1%, the Empire State by 1.99, Industrial Production by a heart rending 0.4%, and the Producer Price Index was unchanged.

It all adds up to a modest summer economic slowdown that kicked in during August.

Only Weekly Jobless Claims show continued strength, hovering at 43 year lows at 260,000. But there is barely a whisper of wage hikes historically seen at these employment levels.

The Fed Funds futures voted with their feet.

There is now only an 11% chance of a hike in September, and 44% in December, and the Fed NEVER votes against this key interest rate leading indicator.

It will be a big week for housing data, the most important single leg of the US economy.

But all else will pale in comparison to the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) concluding on Wednesday.

On Monday, September 19th at 10:00 AM we get a Housing Market Index that should show continued improvement.

On Tuesday, September 20th at 8:30 AM EST the August Housing Starts should be interesting, given the recent rise in mortgage interest rates.

On Wednesday, September 21 at 2:00 PM EST we get the Big Kahuna, the Fed interest rate decision. The comments in the press conference following the announcement will be more important than their decision NOT to raise rates, especially given presidential candidate Donald Trump?s vicious attack on Janet Yellen.

On Thursday, September 22nd we get a cornucopia of data releases. At 8:30 AM EST the Weekly Jobless Claims should confirm that employment remains at decade highs. August Existing Home Sales will be the most important housing related data release of the month.

Friday, September 23 delivers us the Purchasing Managers Index Flash Index at 9:45 AM EST. We wind up with the Baker Hughes Rig Count on Friday at 1:00 PM EST. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past two months, driving oil prices lower.

I have been going through old boxes of hard copy photos stored in my basement, scanning them to my computer to avoid total deterioration. I will be posting some of the more fun ones when there is nothing better to do.

John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

spx
aapl
xlu
tnx
john-refueling-in-corsica

Refueling in Corsica in 1985

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/John-Refueling-in-Corsica-e1474063623380.jpg 241 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-09-19 01:08:022016-09-19 01:08:02Market Outlook for the Coming Week
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