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DougD

Have We Become a Nation of Couch Potatoes?

Diary, Newsletter

Three sets of data crossed my screen today that blew my mind.

Retail Sales are clearly in a secular long-term decline. Indeed, Macy?s (M) announced only a few months ago that it is closing 100 of its 769 stores, sending its stock soaring.

Restaurant revenues dropped 3.3% YOY.

However, Netflix (NFLX) earnings rocketed, sending the shares up a ballistic 15% in minutes.

Are these numbers revealing a major new trend in our society? Are we soon to have our every need catered to without lifting a finger?

Have We Become a Nation of Couch Potatoes?

After spending weeks preparing a major research piece for a private client on artificial intelligence, I would have to say that the answer is an overwhelming ?Yes!?

Artificial intelligence, or AI, is far more pervasive than you think. Half of all apps now rely on some form of AI, and within five years, all of them will.

Within a decade, AI will cure cancer and most other human maladies, drive our cars, decide our elections, and do our shopping.

As a result, the earnings and share prices of its most active practitioners are rocketing. Look no further than the dominant player, Amazon (AMZN), whose share are now up a staggering 193% since January.

AI has become the leading market theme for 2016.

People my age all remember George Jetson, the space age cartoon character, who only had to work an hour a day because machines did the rest for him.

The modern incarnation of his ultra light workweek will be far darker and more sinister.

Instead of a one-hour day, it is far more likely that one person will keep a full time eight hour a day job, while another seven unfortunates become full time unemployed.

By the way, I am determined to be that one guy with a job. So should you.

Indeed, I am increasingly coming across dire predictions that 30% of all jobs will disappear within ten years.

I?m sure that they will. The real question is whether that 30%, or more, will be replaced by jobs yet to be invented. I bet they will. Evolution and creative destruction are now happening on fast forward.

After all, some 25% of the professions listed on the Department of Labor website did not exist a decade ago.

SEO manager? Concert social media buzz creator? Online affiliate manager? Solar panel installer? Reputation defender?

What does the stock market do in this new dystopian society? It goes through the roof. After all far fewer workers creating a greater output generate much larger earnings that send share prices soaring.

It is all a crucial part of my ?Golden Age? scenario for the 2020s. For more on this, purchase my book by clicking Stocks to Buy for the Coming Roaring Twenties.

Having said all that, I think I?ll go binge watch Netflix?s tropical film noir Bloodline. I hear it?s hot.

Downton Abbey is over, and Game of Thrones and House of Cards don?t restart until next year.

nflx m monthly-core-retail-sales geoge-jetson

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Geoge-Jetson-e1476848451417.jpg 301 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-19 01:08:582016-10-19 01:08:58Have We Become a Nation of Couch Potatoes?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Decoding the Greenback

Diary, Newsletter

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill.

?ANNUIT COEPTIS? means ?God has favored our undertaking.? ?NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM? translates into ?A new order has begun.?

The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are ?1776.? The better known ?E PLURIBUS UNUM? is ?One nation from many people.?

The basic design for the cotton and linen currency with red and blue silk fibers, which has been in circulation since 1957, carries enough symbolism to drive conspiracy theorists to distraction.

An all seeing eye? The darkened Western face of the pyramid? And of course, the number ?13? abounds.

Thank freemason Benjamin Franklin for these cryptic symbols, and watch Nicholas Cage?s historical adventure movie ?National Treasure.?

The balanced scales in the seal are certainly wishful thinking and a bit quaint if they refer to the Federal budget.

Study the buck closely, because there are soon going to be a lot more of them around, thanks to the efforts of former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke.

US DollarBen FranklinWhat Did You Really Mean, Ben?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/US-Dollar.jpg 333 357 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-19 01:06:032016-10-19 01:06:03Decoding the Greenback
DougD

October 18, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 18, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LOCKHEED MARTIN?S SECRET FUSION BREAKTHROUGH),
(LMT), (NOC), (BA),
(THERE ARE NO GURUS),
(TESTIMONIAL)

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
The Boeing Company (BA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-18 01:09:302016-10-18 01:09:30October 18, 2016
DougD

Lockheed Martin?s Secret Fusion Breakthrough

Diary, Newsletter

Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year.

No, I don?t mean the rebuilt ignition you bought on eBay for the beat up ?68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard.

Defense contractor Lockheed Martin?s (LMT) famed Skunk Works in California has finally come out of the closet and announced that it has made a major breakthrough in fusion research.

A small functioning reactor could be available in as little as three years.

If true, the news would be dynamite.

I have long been partial to Lockheed as a company, as it employed my mother on an assembly line in Los Angeles to build B-17 bombers during WWII.

When I visited a secret Russian airbase in 1992 to view the wreckage of Gary Powers? U-2 spy plane, the steel Lockheed serial number was unmistakable.

After I asked to take it home as a souvenir, my hosts replied with a very firm ?Nyet!? and hurried me out of the facility, citing it as a ?National Treasure.?

The new fusion technology would deliver ten times more power than conventional nuclear reactors at a fraction of the cost.

Fusion involves the combining of two hydrogen atoms to create one helium atom, releasing immense amounts of power.

To know how much, simply refer to Albert Einstein?s famous equation, E = MC squared.

If successful, the discovery could make available unlimited amounts of carbon free energy at near zero cost, without creating any toxic waste.

The breakthrough relies on using a ?magnetic bottle? to contain the several hundred million degree of heat generated, instead of four foot thick reinforced concrete containment structures.

So far, the stock market is clueless.

Economical fusion power, the type unleashed by thermonuclear hydrogen bombs, has long been the dream of physicists and long term planners everywhere.

The focus of research has until now taken place at the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California. There, progress has recently suffered several set backs and time delays.

Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie died T-shirts, and Birkenstocks come to mind.

But it is also the home of the first atomic bomb, which was originally designed amid the vineyards and cow pastures of this bucolic suburb.

Dr. Robert Oppenheimer of the UC Berkeley School of Mining used to keep the first ever piece of purified plutonium in a file cabinet in his office that, thankfully, was made out of steel.

If it were a wooden cabinet, the US might have lost WWII.

Today, the world?s first cyclotron has been turned into a modern steel sculpture in a traffic roundabout, not a mile from my home.

The thinking at the time was that if someone accidently flipped the wrong switch, it wouldn?t blow up San Francisco, or more importantly, Berkeley.

The $5 billion Livermore project aims 192 lasers at a BB sized piece of frozen hydrogen, using fusion to convert it to helium and unlimited amounts of clean energy.

The heat released by this process reaches 100 million degrees, hotter than the core of the sun, and will be used to fuel conventional steam electric power plants.

The raw material is seawater, and a byproduct is liquid hydrogen, which can be used to fuel cars, trucks, and aircraft. If this all sounds like it is out of Star Trek, you?d be right.

I worked with these guys in the early seventies, back when math was used to make things, and before it was used to game financial markets.? I can tell you, there is not a smarter and more dedicated bunch of people on the planet.

If it works, we will get unlimited amounts of clean energy for low cost in about 20 years. Oil will only be used to make plastics and fertilizer, taking the price down to $10 for domestic production only.

The crude left in the Middle East will become worthless. Lumps of coal will only be found in museums, or in jewelry, its original use. If it doesn?t work, it will melt the adjacent Mt. Diablo and take me with it.

If Lockheed?s fusion success is scalable, it could lift its stock out of the pre-election doldrums from which it, and the rest of the defense sector has been suffering.

Those would include Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Boeing Aircraft (BA).

If you don?t get your newsletter tomorrow, you?ll know what happened.

Now what is this switch for?

lockheed-fusion

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Lockheed-Fusion-e1476759406167.jpg 309 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-18 01:08:162016-10-18 01:08:16Lockheed Martin?s Secret Fusion Breakthrough
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

I watched John Thomas for a year before jumping in, and I should have done it earlier when he phenomenally traded that awful year, 2011, that whipsawed so many investors including myself.

He again outperformed the market in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and so far he has shown amazing skill once more in navigating treacherous markets with deep-in-the-money call and put spreads.

You can not exactly replicate his numbers 100% of the time for many different reasons, some of them strictly technical in nature.

But you will get most of them, or you can use his trade alerts just directionally to help you determine where you should put your money and how to allocate your dollars risk on vs. risk off.

I am up 20% trading with John since October 2015. I also like John's in-depth charts, market insights, and his educational webinars, that have become the cornerstone of my market evaluations.

One should never put all eggs in the same basket, but subscribing to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is a smart way to enhance the performance of your stock portfolio.

Christian
Austin, Texas
John with Horn

Sometimes You Have to Toot Your Own Horn

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/John-with-Horn-e1468781213330.jpg 299 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-18 01:06:362016-10-18 01:06:36Testimonial
DougD

October 17, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 17, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK),
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD), (USO),
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS NEW ALL TIME HIGH),
(FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (TLT), (TBT), (VIX)

(GRAPES OF WRATH REPLAY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares British Pound Ster ETF (FXB)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:10:512016-10-17 01:10:51October 17, 2016
DougD

Market Outlook for the Coming Week

Diary, Newsletter

For all of 2016, financial markets have traded off of the assumption that gridlock would continue in Washington, DC.

Markets hate change, and love the status quo, predictability, and certainty.

Last week that assumption was turned on its head, thanks to the complete collapse of the Trump presidential campaign for reasons I am sure you are all too well aware of.

Clinton is now even or ahead in all 14 battleground states, many by double digits, and her standing in the polls is soaring like a hot Silicon Valley IPO.

Suddenly, the prospect of Democratic control of the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court has been thrust under the noses of traders and investors everywhere, and they don?t like the smell.

This would represent change and in a big way.

Although still unlikely, here?s what such a game-changing outcome would deliver:

* The next three Supreme Court nominations, creating a liberal court for the next 40 years.

*Higher taxes for the wealthy, lower taxes for the poor.

*More regulation of banks through an updated Dodd-Frank.

*Regulation of pharmaceuticals through an Obamacare upgrade.

*Limited gun control (full autos, large magazines, silencers, and enhanced registration requirements for those on the no-fly list and the mentally ill).

*An end to Citizens United which permits unlimited anonymous corporate campaign donations.

*Voter rights will be expanded for minorities.

*Women?s health rights will be expanded in the most pro-choice manner possible.

*Globalization continues, with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) renegotiated and passed by another name.

Maybe Trump can pull his chestnuts out of the fire at the last presidential debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday, October 19.

But I doubt it.

If anything, he is likely to be more abusive, shrill, threatening, and deranged than in the past. At this point, he has nothing to lose.

Can Hillary stand up to Trump?s withering fire? We?ll find out soon enough.

Markets are waiting with baited breath.

Certainly the Las Vegas debate will be the preeminent market risk event of the week.

Monday, October 17th at 9:15 AM EST, we get September Industrial Production which was a yawn last month, but should show an improvement this month.

On Tuesday, October 18th at 10:00 AM EST we learn the NAHB Home Market Index.

On Wednesday, October 19th at 8:30 AM EST, the September Housing Starts are published. We?ll see how quickly rising mortgage interest rates are slowing the housing market.

The all important Fed Beige Book is out at 2:00 PM EST, giving us yet another read on the economy.

If you have trouble sleeping at night, the final presidential debate will keep you riveted to your TV screen. That starts at 9:00 PM EST.

On Thursday, October 20th at 8:30 AM EST we get the Weekly Jobless Claims which should confirm that employment remains at four-decade highs.

Friday, October 21st at 1:00 PM delivers us the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Worryingly, the trend has been up for the past 15 out of the past 16 weeks.

This should help cap oil prices for the short term which is what my (USO) trade is all about.

All in all, I expect us to continue trading in narrow ranges into the presidential election. Then, watch out!

Good luck and good trading.? Keep your hard hat on.

John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas

You Need a Real Gunslinger in These Markets

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/John-Thomas1-e1421097493926.jpg 355 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:09:292016-10-17 01:09:29Market Outlook for the Coming Week
DougD

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High

Diary, Newsletter

It?s been a tough-fought battle. I have had to fight tooth and nail for every penny.

For the first time since September 2nd, I have been able to boost the six-year track record of Global Trading Dispatch to a new all time high.

It seems these days, you have to work twice as hard to earn half the money with more volatility.

We had an outrageous August, taking in a lip-smacking 7.52% profit.
?
I began this month with the assumption that financial markets would remain trapped in narrow ranges.

September was problematic, with my Trade Alerts essentially breaking even, up only 0.27%.

So I narrowed my focus to the short-term trading of the violent day-to-day swings we are seeing in the market.

It worked like a charm.

After a long dormancy, the Volatility Index (VIX) climbed out of the basement, seeing single day moves up to 40%. That enabled me to reel in two quick winners with the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX).

My brother in arms, Mad Options Trader ?Whiz?, has done even better on the volatility front.

Since then, I have been trading like a Mad man, fading moves in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the United State Treasury Bond Fund (TLT), and then taking profits in days.

This week, I cast my net over a broader range of asset classes, buying the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and selling short the United States Oil Fund (USO) on top of the latest OPEC-induced spike.

Both positions turned immediately profitable.

Keeping a death grip on every dollar I take in, I am now running very tight stop losses. This has lead to an irritating jump in small losses, but has enhanced my profitability over all.

Keep in mind that this is an environment where almost no one is making any money at all.

I tell my financial advisor and long term investor friends to just turn off the TV, as there has been very little net movement in asset classes over all.

Things will be better in a year.

It is impossible for them to catch these short-term moves, let alone explain them to clients.

I expect this state of affairs to continue until the November 8th presidential election.

What we are getting is not a ?price correction,? but a ?time correction?, whereby prices grind sideways before breaking out to the upside.

This brings my 2016 year-to-date performance up to an enviable 16.81%, compared with 4.65% for the S&P 500. The trailing 12-month return is 18.25%

My six-year return now reaches an eye popping 208.49%, delivering an average annualized return of 35.75%.

These are numbers that any financial advisor, hedge fund manager, or retiree trading their retirement accounts from home would kill for. Most are losing money this year, net of fees and expenses.

Those who have made the effort to wake up early every morning, read my witty and incisive prose and actively trade my proprietary alerts have an impressive row of notches on their bedpost to show for their endeavors.
?
My groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of subscribers now earn a full-time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.

Some 50% of my clients are over 50 and managing their own retirement funds, fleeing the shoddy, but expensive services provided by Wall Street. The balance are institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional financial advisors.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader seeks to level the playing field for the individual retail investor. Looking at the testimonials that come in every day, I?d say we?re accomplishing that goal. To read the plaudits, please go to Testimonials.

Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you.

To subscribe, please go to Global Trading Dispatch.

And now, for the rest of the year.

I can?t wait!

John Thomas, CEO
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

gtd-12-month-trailing-18-25-10-6-16

This is How You Do It
18.25% Trailing 12 Month Return

gtd-aar-35-75-10-6-16 35.75% Average Annualized Return Over 6 Years

spy tlt vix gld usoJohn Thomas

Reeling in the Big Ones

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/John-Thomas-1-e1463597031325.jpg 400 319 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:08:532016-10-17 01:08:53Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits New All Time High
DougD

Grapes of Wrath Replay

Diary, Newsletter

It?s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population is doubled by people hard hit by the economy, looking to save money on food costs.

After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to bucolic Brentwood, the fruit capital of Northern California.

There, thousands of families, half of them Asian,? harvest ripe Bing cherries and peaches at the wholesale price of $1 a pound, fruit that normally costs $6 a pound at the supermarket.

It all is a great opportunity to teach young kids the value of hard work, and where their food comes from.

Anything you eat in the orchard is free, an old California tradition. No doubt none of these people are counted in the government?s employment statistics.

It all a sign of the snowballing ?local? food movement, where California has been a leader.

It is? a great deal if you don?t mind having purple fingertips at the end of the day. Just watch out for the cars pulled over on the side of the road on the way home, their occupants puking out all their excess cherries.

In a nod to the 21st century, growers in this ?Grapes of Wrath? industry compile lists of email addresses, and notify their itinerant fruit pickers which crops are ready for harvest via the Internet.

Also on the calendar this season are grapes, apples, apricots, plums, loquats, nectarines, mandarin oranges, and wheel chair accessible walnuts (?).

At the end of each harvest, professional crews sweep through and pick up what?s left, if the prices will bear it.

If you wonder why we put up with the earthquakes, high taxes, gridlocked politics, and a non-functioning state government, this is the reason.

By the way, does anyone know what to do with 50 pounds of cherries? Send me your recipes. I already bought an automatic cherry pitter on Amazon.

Farmers Market

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/CHERRIES.jpg 301 320 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-10-17 01:07:262016-10-17 01:07:26Grapes of Wrath Replay
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

Thanks John...rough ride out of the gates here...but I wouldn't want to be riding with anyone but you...you are my life raft in this treacherous world of investing, and thank you for being who you are and for all that you do.

Take care,

Greg B.
Agoura, California

john-in-striped-shirt

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/John-in-Striped-Shirt-e1476567829229.jpg 400 278 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-10-17 01:06:532016-10-17 01:06:53Testimonial
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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