I just stumbled across your writing and I love it!
I have been reading it all weekend. The more I read, the more I have this weird sensation in my frontal cortex. I believe it used to be called "thinking" before the new world order arrived. Almost stimulating....like the stuff before decaf...?
What a fresh perspective you provide! You challenge my preconceived notions from CNN, and that is scary.??
?Every geopolitical crisis in the world is squarely pointed at the heart of Europe right now, be it terrorism, the collapse of Europe, or the currency crisis, and that means it?s focused on Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany,? said my friend, Ian Bremmer, of the political consulting firm, Eurasia Group.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Angela-Merkel-e1467842222570.jpg227400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-07-07 01:05:172016-07-07 01:05:17July 7, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Your article on ?The Ten Baggers in Solar Energy? is the best, well informed, educated piece of literature I have read for a long time.
Thank you for your honest and well informed article. I am going to be 86 years YOUNG in coming November and appreciate a simple jewel in this money chasing jungle.
I would like to follow you and learn more new stuff in this fast going and changing world. Thank you.
?You always sound smarter when you?re a bear than when you?re a bull,? said Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Einstein-e1440525104892.jpg300233Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-07-06 01:05:492016-07-06 01:05:49July 6, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (JULY 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (PROOF THE STOCK MARKET IS HEADED TO NEW HIGHS), (SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (YCS), (GLD)
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There?s nothing like a quick morning dip in the eastern Adriatic to clear the mind, blow out the cobwebs, and focus thought.
The great European postwar economic boom bypassed the former Yugoslavia for lack of capital and a bankrupt communist system.
As a result, the waters here in Dubrovnik, Croatia are crystal clear compared to the polluted, algae ridden sludge you get on the Italian side.
The massive rally in risk assets last week had the same clarifying effect in indicating the future direction of financial markets.
You?ll need that clarity.
The Brexit vote is one of the preeminent risk events of my lifetime, overshadowed only by the US departure from the gold standard in 1972, the 1973 oil shock, and the 2008 financial crisis.
The S&P 500 (SPY) made back 89% of its horrific $13 point loss in a mere three trading days.
High frequency traders took the (SPY) through the 200-day moving average, triggered a ton of stop loss selling and putting in the final bottom of the move.
It has become a familiar pattern.
More stunning is that the US ten year Treasury bond blew through my 1.36% prediction making it all the way through to 1.34%.
The last time rates were this low Alexander Hamilton was the Treasury Secretary, back in 1790. This assures the US will see negative rates on the ten-year in the next recession.
Gold (GLD) is maintaining new highs, and is begging to go higher.
In the meantime, the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) is levitating at ?102.70, indicating that wrong way hedge fund bets have yet to be entirely unwound.
If the yen stays up here much longer, the Japanese islands will sink into the sea. We are just one Bank of Japan intervention away from a 10% move down in the beleaguered Japanese currency.
The message here?
BUY EVERYTHING!
Like the fast moving water of an Alpine waterfall, money will pour into the highest yielding asset class (US blue chip stocks), then the next one, and the next one.
Not to do so risks seeing your resume appear on Craig?s List as your angry clients bail, following three years of losses.
Traders take note: If a black swan as momentous as Brexit can?t crash stocks more than 5%, the medium term direction can only be up.
It is rare that both stocks and bonds rise simultaneously. This is one of those times.
Blame it all on negative interest rates, which are blowing apart time worn investment models everywhere you look.
They are forcing investment advisors, money managers, and traders around the globe to take on more risk with lesser returns at the expense of higher volatility.
In other words, the markets will allow you to make a little bit of money, but you are not allowed to sleep at night.
So you wanted to run away and join the circus, did you?
What has happened is that markets have quickly figured out what I did hours after the Brexit referendum results were broadcast on the dark, stormy morning of Friday, Jun 24.
I had to climb the highest mountain on the Dingle Peninsula in Western Ireland to get enough bars on my cell phone to give my handful of $10,000 a year concierge clients the heads up.
I gave them the bottom line in a few terse words: This may be your last chance to buy stocks before the pre/post US presidential election stock market melt up.
I have to tell you that there is nothing more satisfying in life than to see the confused and the disoriented follow my out of the box, non-consensus advice, and then prosper mightily from it.
As my work with the British government last week confirmed, there are just too many ways to render Brexit meaningless.
The great thing about British constitutional crisis is that they have no constitution. There is no Supreme Court, Bill of Rights, or separation of church and state. Taxation without representation is rife.
These are the issues over which America rebelled over 240 years ago.
The referendum vote was advisory only, and was not binding. If the ?leave? party wants to sue, guess who is the final arbiter in English courts?
The House of Lords, the closest thing that the UK has to a 1% Club, an overwhelmingly pro-globalization, pro-remain bunch.
This is why prime minster, John Cameron, resigned the next morning. It forces the government to sit on its hands for three months while ?exit? road blocks are set up.
The Tory?s could then run a strongly pro-remain slate of candidates in the fall. A win could constitute a reversal of the Brexit vote.
And then there is the Queen, the last functioning institution in the UK.
A card-carrying member of the 1%, the 90 year old could just say NO. She is not willing to see her Kingdom undergo an economic ?Brexicution? al la Bloody Mary, at least economically.
Demographics, which usually explain everything, auger strongly in favor of the UK remaining inside the European Community.
As the young voted strongly in favor of remaining, demographic evolution alone would swing the national vote to a ?remain? within three years, assuming that everything else remains the same.
But they are not remaining the same. The Monday after the referendum, I never heard so much back pedaling in my life.
The ?exit? leaders said they never promised they would deliver ?350 million a week in new cash flows for the National Health System that leaving the EC would make possible.
And restricting immigration, while allowing a free flow of labor? How do you accomplish that? I have never seen so few fathers claim success.
The days leading up to the vote we only heard about the benefits of Brexit, mostly nationalistic and ideological. The day after, we only heard about the economic costs.
Foreign investment into the UK has ground to a complete halt. Foreign exchange desks across the continent refused to take pounds.
A proposed merger between a Spanish and English steel company meant to save 11,000 UK jobs was put on hold.
A guest at my Dublin, Ireland Global Strategy Luncheon perhaps gave me the most telling evidence.
Attending an auction for race horses on the Monday after the vote, he told me that the British, normally big buyers, failed to show up, while those from sterling based Northern Ireland sat on their hands.
When all else fails, go to race house prices as a leading indicator.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/John-at-the-Adriatic-e1467664118960.jpg400356DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2016-07-05 01:06:452016-07-05 01:06:45Proof the Stock Market is Going to New Highs
?We are going to be working off backlogs of construction, mining, oil, and gas for years,? said my friend, famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Mountain-e1440344607254.jpg199300Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2016-07-05 01:05:322016-07-05 01:05:32July 5, 2016 - Quote of the Day
Featured Trade: (JULY 6 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MY BRIEFING FROM THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF), (CGW), (PHO), (RSX), (GOOGL), (CSCO), (FXI), (XLK), (WHY THE JGB MARKET MAY BE READY TO COLLAPSE), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ)
Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW) PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO) VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)
I have always considered the US military to have one of the world?s greatest research organizations. The frustrating thing is that their ?clients? only consist of the President and a handful of three and four star generals.
So I thought that I would review my notes from a dinner I had with General James E. Cartwright, the former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who is known as ?Hoss? to his close subordinates.
Meeting the tip of the spear in person was fascinating. The four star Marine pilot was the second highest ranking officer in the US armed forces and showed up in his drab green alpha suit, his naval aviator wings matching my own, and spit and polished shoes.
As he spoke, I was ticking off the stock, ETF and futures plays that would best capitalize on the long term trends he was outlining.
The cycle of warfare is now driven by Moore?s Law more than anything else (XLK), (CSCO) and (PANW). Peer nation states, like Russia, are no longer the main concern.
Historically, inertia has limited changes in defense budgets to 5%-10% a year, but in 2010 defense secretary Robert Gates pulled off a 30% realignment, thanks to a major management shakeup. We can only afford to spend on winning current conflicts, not potential future wars. No more exercises in the Fulda Gap.
The war on terrorism will continue for at least 4-8 more years. Afghanistan is a long haul that will depend more on cooperation from neighboring Iran and Pakistan. ?We?re not going to be able to kill our way or buy our way to success in Afghanistan,? said the general.? However, the 30,000-man surge there brought a dramatic improvement on the ground situation.
Iran is a big concern and the strategy there is to interfere with outside suppliers of nuclear technology in order to stretch out their weapons development until a regime change cancels the whole program.
Water (PHO), (CGW) is going to become a big defense issue, as the countries running out the fastest, like Pakistan and the Sahel, happen to be the least politically stable.
Cyber warfare is another weak point, as excellent protection of .mil sites cannot legally be extended to .gov and .com sites.?
We may have to lose a few private institutions in an attack to get congress to change the law and accept the legal concept of ?voluntarism.? General Cartwright said ?Anyone in business will tell you that they?re losing intellectual capital on a daily basis.??
The START negotiations have become complicated by the fact that for demographic reasons, Russia (RSX) will never be able to field a million man army again, so they need more tactical nukes to defend against the Chinese (FXI).? The Russians are trying to cut the cost of defending against the US, so they can spend more on defense against a far larger force from China.
I left the dinner with dozens of ideas percolating through my mind, which I will write about in future letters.
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