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DougD

Goodbye the Quarter from Hell

Diary, Newsletter

Good riddance! I?m never eating at THAT restaurant again!

That?s all I can say about the completion of the first quarter of 2016. Talk about an e.coli of a quarter!

It was the worst quarter in hedge fund history. Bodies will be washing up on the beach for months.

Back-to-back we saw both the worst start to a year in stock market history, followed by the sharpest rally. Up to 70% of the net buying from the February 11 ?Jamie Diamond? bottom is thought to be corporate buybacks.

What?s more, it has done three of these nausea inducing round trips in the past 18 months, with barely any net over all change.

That is the most difficult market in the world to trade.

Activist funds especially took it in the shorts. Without exception, the best performing stocks of 2016 had the largest short positions.

Telecommunications stocks closed with the best performance at +15.3%, followed by utilities +13.9%, and consumer staples +5.2%, all defensive high dividend yielders. The reach for yield is alive and well.

Banks took the worst beating, down -5.4%, thanks the Fed?s abandonment of any near term interest rate hikes. Health care also got roughed up, down -5.7%, thanks to the double-barreled assault from both political parties.

I can see right now that there will be a great long bank, long health care trade setting up for the second half of the year, once the election gets out of the way.

I managed to keep my head above water. I closed the quarter up 3.31%, with March peeling off 2.42%. I played the entire month from the short side, which saw 15 of 22 trading days produce gains. Only a highly disciplined stop loss approach kept me from losing my shirt.

It really was the quarter of the STOP LOSS, with me taking hits on the (GDX), (FXE), (XIV), (FXY), and (SPY). The sad truth is that all of these losses expired at their maximum profit point except for the (SPY). If I had only held on, these would have been winners, at the expense of many sleepless nights for both you and me.

If you haven?t done this before, I DON?T recommend you try it some time.

Praise be to gold (GLD), which has saved my bacon three times in three months.

The good news is that I am still only 4% short of an all time performance high. Thus, I live to fight another day.

During the aforementioned 18 months from hades, the (SPY) gained a miserly 5.6%, while the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert service rocketed by 47.58%.

It?s a classic case of the harder I work, the luckier I get. Being nimble, and having a half-century of trading experience under my belt helps a lot too.

When I ran my big hedge fund during the 1990?s, I learned that if you are flat when you?re wrong and up huge when you are right, the customers will take that all day long.

So will you.Series 1

Mad Hedge Fund Trader 5 ? Year Audited Performance

spy
John Thomas

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/John-Thomas4-e1440624214232.jpg 400 317 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-01 01:07:012016-04-01 01:07:01Goodbye the Quarter from Hell
DougD

The Portfolio That Will Double in Three Years

Diary, Newsletter

Below, I have listed a portfolio of ten stocks that will almost certainly double in three years. If I am wrong, it will gain 100% in only two years.

But there is a catch. This basket of stocks may have to drop 20%-30% first. It is a cardinal rule of investment that if you want to earn higher returns, you must accept higher volatility as well.

It doesn?t require a rocket scientist to figure out that this is an energy-based portfolio.

Crude almost certainly hit it's trough in the current quarter at $26 a barrel. But this python has a couple of pigs that it has to digest first.

As an old oilman, I can tell you that the oil majors have never been able to forecast the price of oil, and that is with all the resources in the world to accomplish this.

This is why they hedge out all their production in the futures market, or with long-term contracts with customers. The oil companies that thought they could predict the price of oil all went out of business a long time ago.

And as a mathematician, I can also tell you that this is an impossible task. There are just too many variables involved. So, don?t even try.

The bottom line is that absolutely no one can pinpoint when and where oil will hit bottom.

Let?s start with the supply side. Thanks to the avalanche of cash that poured into fracking plays at the top of the market last year, US oil production peaked at 9.6 million barrels a day in the spring of last year. It has since fallen to 9 million barrels a day.

This is occurring because once money enters the production pipeline, it stays there forever. Drillers would rather complete a half finished well and sell its output at a loss for a couple of years, rather than shut down construction and lose everything.

However, new projects have fallen precipitously. You see this in the collapse of the number of drilling rigs in use, from a peak of 2,000 five years ago to only 352 last week, according to the Baker-Hughes reports.

Then there is the storage issue. Much of this new oil is going straight into storage. As a result, the facilities at Cushing, Oklahoma, are full. Virtually every tanker in the world has already been chartered and is also loaded to the gunnels with Texas tea.

Once all the storage in the world was full to capacity, there was not alternative but to cap wells, or dump new production on the spot market. This led to the price Armageddon that so many investors worried about.

The peace deal with Iran won?t be a huge factor. The country?s oil infrastructure is in such a miserable state that it will be years before it impacts the market in a major way.

And, by the way, Iran is also thought to be storing oil it couldn?t sell in a fleet of tankers offshore.

Now, lets look at the demand side. We only need two letters for this one: QE.

We are a mere year into what is probably a 5-6 year program of quantitative easing in Europe. The Bank of Japan continues to dump massive amounts of cash into its own economy. Even China is easing.

In the meantime, the United States is still basking in the glow of its own just ended hyper aggressive $4 trillion QE strategy. It?s now looking like all of America?s 2016 economic growth will be concentrated in the final three quarters of the year.

This all adds of to a global synchronized economic recovery and much higher oil prices. Personally, I think oil could recover to $70 a barrel in 2017, and to $100 by 2018.

This is why large, long term institutional investors are happy to look across any potential $30 valley that may occur over the next few months and are loading the boat with energy stocks now.

Maybe you should do the same.

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Model Energy Portfolio

?
? ? ? ? ?

Majors

Symbol

Price

Yield

Weighting

? ? ? ? ?

Exxon Mobil

(XOM)

$84

3.85%

10%

Chevron

(CVX)

$95

4.28%

10%

Occidental Petroleum

(OXY)

$69

4.41%

10%

Conoco Philips

(COP)

$40

2.52%

10%

? ? ? ? ?

Exploration and Production

? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ?

EOG Resources

(EOG)

$73

0.90%

10%

? ? ? ? ?

Offshore Drilling

? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ?

Transocean

(RIG)

$9

0.00%

10%

? ? ? ? ?

Gas Liquifaction

? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ?

Cheniere Energy

(LNG)

$34

0.00%

10%

? ? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ?

Solar

? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ?

First Solar

(FSLR)

$57

0.00%

10%

SunPower

(SPWR)

$22

0.00%

10%

? ? ? ? ?

Master Limited Partnerships

? ? ? ?
? ? ? ? ?

Alerian

(AMLP)

$11

11.8%

10%

? ? ? ? ?

Total

? ? ?

100%

$wtic
XLE
AMLP
FSLR
OIL GUSHERWhere is the ?OFF? Switch for this Thing?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/OIL-GUSHER-e1456269567957.png 367 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-01 01:06:302016-04-01 01:06:30The Portfolio That Will Double in Three Years
DougD

April 1, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Economists say we?re having 2.5% growth. That?s a lie. The reality is that we have 5% growth for the top 20% of the economy, and 0% growth for the bottom 80% of the economy,? said Arthur Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute.

Zombies

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Zombies-e1459459894373.jpg 225 300 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-04-01 01:05:232016-04-01 01:05:23April 1, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

March 31, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 31, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 22 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE NEW COLD WAR)
(THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-31 01:09:582016-03-31 01:09:58March 31, 2016
DougD

March 30, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 30, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(APRIL 21 BOSTON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE YELLEN PUT OPTION LIVES!),
(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (FXY), (FXE),
(THE TAX RATE FALLACY),
(THE BEST TESTIMONIAL EVER!)

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-30 01:10:352016-03-30 01:10:35March 30, 2016
DougD

The Yellen Put Lives!

Diary, Newsletter

Any monetary hawks hoping for an acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy had their hopes sorely dashed today.

Chairman Janet Yellen?s speech could not have been more dovish if it had been written by the most extreme deflationista.

Let me parse her words for you:

?greater gradualism?

??less favorable economic conditions?

?weaker foreign economies?

??downward drifting inflation expectations?

These sentiments all point towards a single possible conclusion. There won?t be another Fed interest rate hike until December, well after the presidential election.

Betting on Janet Yellen?s laser focus on employment at the expense of higher interest rates has been the surest bet you could made in the financial markets since her appointment in 2014.

Those betting on low rates triggering an upsurge in inflation were rightly spanked and had their money taken away from them.

The various asset classes made their predictable moves. Technology stocks (AAPL) and (FB), bonds (TLT), the Japanese yen (FXY), and the Euro (FXE) all rose. The dollar (UUP) and bank stocks tanked.

Gold (GLD) went up. But gold always seems to want to go up lately, no matter what the news is. It seems that the mere fact that an unknown is out of the way is cause for the barbarous relic to appreciate.

So you may be asking, ?Why on earth are you selling short the S&P 500 with this revelation.?

There is a method to my MADNESS.

The stock market has ridden higher for six consecutive weeks. It is now more overbought than at any time in history, with a staggering 92.5% of stocks ABOVE their 50-day moving average.

My belief is that I was not alone in my own dovish expectations, and that much of the rest of the market was expecting the same. That?s why we got a monster February-March rally, despite essentially no change in the economic fundamentals.

In order words, the dovish news is already factored into the price. No surprise here!

SPY
TLT
GLD
FXE
Janet YellenNo Interest Rate Hike Here

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Janet-Yellen-e1484877247453.jpg 300 238 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-30 01:08:202016-03-30 01:08:20The Yellen Put Lives!
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Best Testimonial Ever

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

I was pondering an FXE trade alert from MHFT today when my cell rang with a Berkeley, CA area code. Since I know a couple people in that part of the world, I answered, and it was none other than John Thomas.

Had I not heard his voice on the MHFT webinars, I would have thought I was being conned. But given that I?m in the last month of a trial run, he actually called to find out how I was doing with the service and what I thought.

Here?s the short version of what I told him.

I?m a pretty experienced investor, but definitely not sophisticated when it comes to using options, or for that matter, trading currencies and commodities.

My first trade with MHFT ? an (FXY) vertical call spread ? literally scared the hell out of me, so I used a tiny position size. I think I made around $900 ($400 more than my trial subscription, so there?s that).

But through the process of using John?s trade ideas, I learned. Fast. Nothing will help you grasp the potential of option strategies like doing them. And as I write this, I have multiple positions on courtesy of MHFT that are on track to deliver double digit percentage gains in a matter of weeks!

I can?t quite comprehend how he knows so many well-placed people, but he?s incredibly adept at grabbing insights from them, turning these into an investment thesis, and making it incredibly clear and actionable to his reader base.

One day he?s writing about a chat with a three star general and the next you?re buying a call spread on Palo Alto Networks. He connects the dots in a ridiculously useful way.

But it?s more than just the idea, it?s the timing of the idea. The world is full of people who can say ?hey, cyber-security is a big deal.? Or, ?wow, the euro is getting killed.? But the actual trade execution to profit from that in the near term? He?s freaky good.

I also love the defined exit strategy. Look, if you?re the most disciplined human on the planet and never let a bad trade turn into a long term ?investment,? more power to you.

I am not. I hate when I do it, but it?s happened more than once. With MHFT, the exit is well marked. You can?t miss it. Personally, I find that removes significant stress, not to mention risk.

Today, I was over at my local Schwab office ? before John called ? and was raving about MHFT. Not stark raving. Good raving. I?d be surprised if they aren?t signing up for a trial as I write this.

John, thanks for the call. That was a really nice surprise.

But more importantly, thanks for great work, thinking, and ideas. Enjoy your travels and I look forward to meeting you at one of your conferences.

Neil
Dublin, Ohio

 

John Thomas - Beach

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/John-Thomas-Beach-e1416856744606.png 400 276 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-03-30 01:06:052016-03-30 01:06:05The Best Testimonial Ever
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 30, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but never the madness of crowds,? said Sir Isaac Newton, the inventor of calculus and discoverer of Newton?s Laws, who lost his entire fortune in a 17th century investment scam called ?the South Sea Bubble.?

Isaac Newton

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Isaac-Newton.jpg 226 214 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-03-30 01:05:352016-03-30 01:05:35March 30, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

March 29, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 29, 2016
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL TESLA 3 ISSUE


Featured Trade:
(APRIL 20 WASHINGTON DC GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(MARCH 30 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(HOW TESLA TAKES OVER THE WORLD ON THURSDAY),
(TSLA), (GM), (TM), (NSANY), (DDAIY)

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
General Motors Company (GM)
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)
Daimler AG (DDAIY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-29 01:09:382016-03-29 01:09:38March 29, 2016
DougD

How Tesla Takes Over the World on Thursday

Diary, Newsletter

I stopped by Tesla?s (TSLA) Fremont, California factory last week to test drive my new high performance Model X SUV and noticed something interesting.

There was major new construction under way in the customer delivery area.

That was to be expected, since the company has already announced that they plan to boost production of their sleek, ultra high tech Model-S sedan from 51,000 units this year to 93,000. It seems doable, since there is still a four-month waiting list to obtain a new vehicle.

However, something didn?t fit. They weren?t doubling the car delivery area. They were increasing it by TEN TIMES! Clearly, something much larger was afoot.

After chatting up the staff inside, I learned what was really going on. On Thursday, March 31, CEO and founder Elon Musk will unveil the next generation all electric Tesla 3 at the Hawthorne, California facility. The move promises to upend the global automobile industry.

The $35,000 four-passenger car will get a 200 mile range and require almost no maintenance for its entire life. The batteries will offer an eight-year minimum guarantee.

The vehicles can be recharged by plugging in at home, with 90% discounts for charges between 12:00 and 7:00 AM (in California).? At that rate, your fuel cost works out to the equivalent of 4 cents per gallon. They can also be juiced up for free in 30 minutes at Tesla?s 200-station national supercharger network (see map below).

The cars will be fully equipped with self driving technology, although the system has yet to be fully activated pending regulatory and insurance issues. The first vehicles will be delivered in 2017.

However, Elon has been late with every car he has delivered so far, so 2018 is more realistic. Customers don?t care. They would rather have delayed perfection than an early, buggy beta model.

Tesla will start accepting $1,000 deposits for the Model 3 online from April 1. The company expects to sell 10,000 on the first day.

The Tesla 3 has always been the final goal of Musk?s grand vision to build a carbon free global economy. The Tesla Roadster and the Model S-1 were really just test beds to develop a mass-market technology. Now it has finally arrived.

Tesla plans to be producing 500,000 Model 3?s within five years. Beyond that, the sky is the limit. The $6 billion gigafactory, its construction well ahead of schedule (I?ve flown over it), promises to deliver the lithium ion battery packs to make these lofty goals possible. A second plant is planned, possibly in Texas.

And here is the stock play in Tesla. The company is not expected to earn real, non subsidized, accounting gimmick free earnings for several years. But what is ownership of the global car market in a decade worth today?

Tesla sales this year will only account for 0.55% of total US auto production. But they are easily a decade ahead of any potential competitor in the all electric field, be they American, German, Korean, or Japanese. And they are increasing that lead at an astounding pace.

With the highest quality product, the best electric car brand recognition, the greatest range, and the lowest price point, Tesla should own the global car market by 2025. For decades, their only possible limitation will be the number of cars they can produce, except possibly during recessions.

Ad this to the plunging price of solar power, and the cost advantages increase even further. I am already powering my own Tesla S-1 off of my solar panels, and will be adding a second Model X shortly.

It all makes established automakers toast in the 2020?s like General Motors (GM), Daimler Benz (DDAIY), Toyota (TM), and Nissan Motors (NSANY)

You can forget about chasing the stock up here. The Model 3 launch has already been fully discounted by the meteoric 71.4% gain in the stock since February 11.

However, Tesla remains a major holding in long term value funds like Ron Baron?s Baron Capital, and Fidelity. They see further tenfold gains in the share price from here.

The electric power source is, in fact, the least important aspect of the Tesla cars. Here are 16 reasons that are more important:

1) The vehicles have 75% fewer parts than any other, massively reducing production costs. The drive train has 11 parts, compared to over 1,500 for conventional gasoline powered transportation. Tour the factory and it is eerily silent. There are almost no people, just a handful who service the German robots that put these things together.

2) No maintenance is required, as any engineer will tell you about electric motors. You just rotate the tires every 6,000 miles.

3) This means that no dealer network is required. There is nothing to fix, no parts to sell.

4) If you do need to repair something, usually it can be done over the phone. Rebooting the computer addresses most issues. If not, they will send a van to do a repair at your house for free.

5) The car runs at room temperature, not the 500 degrees in standard internal combustion cars. This means that the parts last forever.

6) The car is connected to the Internet 24/7. Once a month it upgrades its own software when you are sleeping. You jump in the car the next morning and a message appears on your screen saying, ?We just upgraded the following 20 Apps.? This is the first car I ever owned that improved itself with age, as I do myself.

7) This is how most of the recalls have been done as well, over the Internet while you are sleeping.

8) If you need to recharge at a public station, it is free. Tesla has its own national network of superchargers that will top you up in minutes, and allow you to drive across the country (see map below). But hotels and businesses have figured out that electric car drivers are the kind of big spending customers they want to attract. So public stations have been multiplying like rabbits. When I first started driving my Nissan Leaf in 2010 there were only 25 charging stations in the Bay Area. There are now over 1,000. They even have them at Costco, Wal-Mart, and McDonalds.

9) No engine means a lot more space for other things, like storage. You get two trunks in the Model-S, a generous one behind, and a ?frunk? in front.

10) Drive an electric car in California, and you are treated like visiting royalty. You can drive in the HOV commuter lanes as a single driver. This won?t last forever, but it?s a nice perk now.

11) There is a large and growing market for all American made products. Tesla has a far higher percentage of US parts (100%) than any of the big three.

12) Since almost every part is made on site at the Fremont factory, supply line disruptions are eliminated. Most American cars are over dependent on Asian supply lines for parts and frequently fall victim to disruptions, like floods and tidal waves.

13) There are almost no controls, providing for more cost savings. Except for the drive train, windows, and turn signals, all vehicle controls are on the touch screen, like a giant iPhone 6 plus.

14) A number of readers have argued that the Tesla really runs on coal, as this is still the source of 36% of the US power supply. However, if you program the car between midnight and 7:00 AM (one of my ideas that Tesla adopted in a recent upgrade), you are using electricity generated by the utilities to maintain grid integrity at night that otherwise goes unused and wasted. How much power is wasted like this in the US every night? Enough to recharge 150 million cars per night!

15) With a waiting list for all new Tesla products, it does not need to advertise. The Detroit Big Three spent $50 billion on advertising last year. Ouch!

16) Oh yes, the car is good for the environment, a big political issue for at least half the country. When these cars become cheaper than conventional gasoline cars with oil at $26 a barrel, the entire country will switch over.

See you in Fremont.

TSLA
NEW TESLA
TESLA INTERIOR
TESLA SUPERCHARGER MAP
John

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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