Global Market Comments
April 12, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(APRIL 25 CHICAGO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(A NOTE ON THE FRIDAY APRIL 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Global Market Comments
April 12, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(APRIL 25 CHICAGO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(A NOTE ON THE FRIDAY APRIL 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Monday, April 25th.
A three course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.
Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $235.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a downtown Chicago venue on Monroe Street that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets,? please click here.
We have a couple of options positions that expire on Friday, April 15 and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These include:
The S&P 500 SPDRs ETF (SPY) April 15, 2016 $182 puts
The? SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) April 15, 2016 $109-$112 vertical bull call spread
My bet that gold would rise, despite all market conditions, proved dead on accurate. This makes our third consecutive win with the barbarous relic. All we need now is another substantial dip so we can get back in, rolling our options up and out.
The S&P 500 (SPY) is another story. We originally purchased this as a hedge against our many deep-in-the-money (SPY) call spreads, all of which proved profitable. My plan was to take profits on the $182 puts on the next dip if the market, and bring in profits on both the long and the hedge.
However, the dip never came. What ensued was the strongest and sharpest move up in market history. The market didn?t take in a single breath. As a result, our (SPY) April 15, 2016 $182 are going to expire worthless, shaving some 4.87% off our 2016 performance.
That?s a hit and a half!
Netting it all out, we still managed a profit on our (SPY) longs. It took a once a century event to deprive us of our bragging rights.
Those once a century events are darn hard to call.
Provided that some 9/11 type event doesn?t occur by Friday, the (GLD) position should expire at its maximum profit point. In that case, your profits on this position will amount to 12.35% in 18 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions. The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don?t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long $109 call position to cover your short $112 call position in the April (GLD), cancelling out the total holding.
The profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning April 18, and the margin freed up.
If you don?t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally mistakes do occur. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
I don?t usually run positions into expiration like this, preferring to take profits two weeks ahead of time, as the risk reward is no longer that favorable.
But we have a ton of cash right now, and I don?t see any other great entry points for the moment. Better to keep the cash working and duck the double commissions. This time being a pig paid off handsomely.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration. This is known in the trade as the ?expiration risk.?
One way or the other, I?m sure you?ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
This expiration will leave me with a very rare 90% cash position. I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It?s all about getting that ?Buy low, sell high? thing going.
I?m looking to cherry pick my new positions.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well earned beer. Or use it to pay your 2015 income tax bill due Monday, April 18.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
Global Market Comments
April 11, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 22 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(INTRODUCING THE MAD HEDGE FACEBOOK/TWITTER MARKET FEED),
(WHAT TO DO ABOUT APPLE),
(AAPL), (CHL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Come join me for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Friday, April 22, 2016.
An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A wide ranging discussion will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.
Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $249.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving 30 minutes early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets, click here.
If I get one question more than any other, it is what factors I take into consideration when making a market call.
It's a tough call because I keep track of hundreds of financial markets and data releases, from The Baltic Dry Index to the Japanese quarterly tankan.
Long-term followers have already subscribed to my Facebook and Twitter pages to receive a daily feed of my newsletter headlines.
As of this morning, I rated 1,704 ?likes? on Facebook and 1,791 ?followers? on Twitter.
Now I?m going to ramp up my game.
Frequently, market moving news or crucial technical conditions will arise which are important, but about which I lack the time to knock out a full 1,000 word opus in timely order. I bet you don?t have time to read it either.
Recently I have started posting short notes on these important developments on my Facebook and Twitter accounts to give you a quick update.
Usually a short sentence is enough to do the job, but occasionally I stretch to two.
This service addresses many issues.
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It is the world?s largest company.
It is the planet?s most widely owned stock.
Of the 200 million Americans who possess financial assets, probably all of them own Apple (AAPL), either directly through a trading account, or indirectly though an ETF (it is a massive 11.67% of the PowerShares QQQ), public or private pension fund.
So to say that traders are on pins and needles ahead of the upcoming quarterly earnings report would be an understatement.
A year ago, Apple issued one of the most perfect reports in the history of capitalism.
It blew away even the most optimistic forecasts, announcing earnings per share of $2.33, versus a consensus expectation of $2.16, and $1.75 last quarter.
The firm earned $13.6 billion in profits on $58 billion in gross profits, the largest quarterly profit in world history.
The company sold a staggering 61.2 million iPhones during the three-month period, 4 million more than expected. Insignificant iPad sales dropped from 13.9 to 12.6 million units. MacBooks were in line at 4.6 million units.
No mention was made whatsoever of problems with a strong dollar.? The company now sits on an unbelievable $194 billion in cash, the equivalent of the GDP of a medium sized country.
Most importantly, Apple expanded its share buy back program to $200 billion. The big question now is, will Apple buy another company, or a whole country?
Wow!
Since then the stock has been grinding sideways in the most tedious manner imaginable. It was a classic ?Buy the rumor, sell the news? set up.
Which leads many shareholders to ask if, now that the stock is owned by every taxi driver, elevator operator , and shoe shine boy in the country (now I?m showing my age!), are we headed for another 45% selloff, much like the last time the stock peaked out in 2012?
Certainly, the grounds for concern are out there.
There are now no new blockbuster products coming out until we see the iPhone 7 in September 2016.
There are supply chain worries, as the global manufacturing network is now absolutely mammoth.
Some analysts are nervous about quality control, especially regarding new products like the Apple watch, which should sell an eye popping 30 million units this year.
However, I think this time it?s different.
While you weren?t looking, Apple has turned into a China play. No, they aren?t suddenly eating dim sum with chopsticks at corporate headquarters in Cupertino.
The Middle Kingdom, in short order, has become the firm?s largest grower of its earnings. This is a good thing. Last year saw an 80% growth of sales there. China is expected to become the largest market for Apple products this year.
What?s more, the ballistic growth there is expected to continue. Walk down the street in Shanghai these days, and you are amazed by how many people are speaking or texting into their iPhones, real and fake ones alike.
In fact, they have become the primary means through which people access the Internet there.
No doubt, this is due to Apple?s special relationship there with China Mobile (CHL), which now offers iPhone owners a great deal for their cell phone service. Did I mention that (CHL) has a staggering 750 million customers?
The iWatch is now viewed as the gateway for the sales of as many as 1.2 million future third party developed apps, the number iTunes offers now.
Apple Pay looks to replace Visa and Master Card at some point in the future. Apple TV is still lurking out there in the background.
We?ll learn more about all of this at the next developers conference in San Francisco in June.
All of this leads me to believe that there is far more fundamental support in terms of new products and business lines for the company than we saw during the last cycle.
There is also more distance in the rear view mirror since the passing of Steve Jobs. Successor Tim Cook has since proved himself as a world-class leader.
It turned out the timing for the company to transition from a founder-tyrant to a cutting edge administrator-manager was perfect. You don?t need to hold your breath anymore.
At least the stock market thinks so.
Therefore, I expect to see a $1 trillion market capitalization for Apple sometime in 2018, well up from today?s $602 billion. I think that means you need to use the current dip to load up on the stock.
Global Market Comments
April 8, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 13 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(APRIL 21 BOSTON GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(DON?T BE SHORT CHINA HERE),
($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (CHL), (BIDU)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
?
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