You usually don?t expect US housing data to cause the collapse of a foreign currency. But that is exactly what happened this morning.
The announcement by the Census Bureau that new home stats for July came in at a breathtaking 1.09 million, up 15.7%, blew away even the optimistic forecasts. Earlier figures for June were revised up substantially.
New building permits for July came in at a robust 1.1 million. Perma bears on the housing market were sent scampering to lick their wounds.
The real shocker was that the Euro promptly dropped 50 basis points, piercing a major support level on the long term charts. The short Euro ETF (EUO), which I have been recommending since the spring for my non-option clients skyrocketed. That clears the way for a run in the (FXE) down to $127.
The (FXE) wasn?t the only asset that saw a kneejerk reaction. The Treasury bond market (TLT) dove by 1 ? points. It is now 2 ? points off the short squeeze high last Friday, when false rumors of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine caused traders to panic. This sent the ProShares Ultra Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) soaring, which I am also long.
You can come up with a nice academic theory as to why there is a connection between American housing data and the beleaguered continental currency. Stronger housing means a better economy and higher dollar interest rates, sooner.
As interest rates differentials are the primary driver of foreign exchange markets, this is great news for the greenback and terrible news for the Euro.
The truth is a little more complicated than that. The outlook for the European economy is now so poor, thanks to the sanctions against Russia, that traders and investors have been desperate to add to their short positions. After the prolonged, one-way move down we saw this summer, the Euro managed barely a one-cent short covering rally in the past week.
There is another factor that no one else is talking about. Scotland is about to hold a referendum on whether it should break away from the United Kingdom. Scottish nationalists are hoping for the best.
If successful, it could spur other independence movements across Europe. Catalonia is having a similar vote to break away from Spain in November, with some separatists avid followers of this letter (yes, that?s you, Joan!). The Basque region is not far behind. If this trend ripples across the continent, it would be hugely Euro negative.
The European Central Bank is almost certain to lower Euro interest rates and expand quantitative easing at a September or October meeting. This will weaken the Euro further, paving the way for a move to $127, and eventually $120.
That?s why I am doubling my shorts in the (FXE) today, even though we are at the low for the year. Non-options players should buy more of the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Mario-Draghi.jpg269401Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-20 08:50:102014-08-20 08:50:10The Euro Breaks Down
Since I am in a major patting myself on the back mood, I thought I would rerun a piece I ran last October entitled ?Apple is Ready to Explode?. This is back when the shares were trading at a lowly $490 a share.
Since then I have been urging readers to get in on the long side at every opportunity. They are now up a mind boggling 43% from that timely recommendation. They are laughing all the way to the bank.
?You have to be impressed how Apple shares have been trading during the Washington shutdown and the debt ceiling crisis. While other highflying technology stocks have crashed and burned, Apple has held like the Rock of Gibraltar.
Is this presaging much better things to come?
After the bar was set extremely low in the run up to the iPhone 5s launch, there has been an onslaught of good news. The first weekend sales came in at a staggering 9 million units, nearly double analyst forecasts. That?s a lot of units to be wrong by.
This has led to a series of broker upgrades by Cantor Fitzgerald, Cowen & Co., Piper Jaffray, Sanford Bernstein, and most recently by Jeffries. Entrenched bears are slowly an inexorably turning into bulls. Targets range up to $780.
During the summer, when the shares were trading in the low $400?s, Apple emerged as the largest buyer of its own stock. Still, it only made a dent in the $60 billion the company has dedicated to the program.
Of course, corporate raider and green mailer Carl Icahn (he lived in my building in Manhattan and was always a bit of a jerk) wants Apple to buy $160 billion of its stock, about $36% of the total market capitalization. But with a position of only $2 billion, Carl doesn?t have enough skin in the game to get anything more than a free dinner from CEO Tim Cook.
Still, the more Icahn bangs the drum about the value of Apple, the more money he sucks in. His blustering has probably added about $50 to the stock price. That works for me.
Like the Origin of the Universe and the 105-year long losing streak suffered by the Chicago Cubs baseball team, the cheapness of Apple shares is one of those mysteries that baffles investors. Sure, you?d expect some natural profit taking after the meteoric 15 year run in the shares, from $4 to $707. But a 46% drawdown is a lot, and many would say too much.
The company has eye popping net profits of $3.5 million per business hour (click here for the most recently quarterly announcement). Some one third of it capitalization, or $150 billion, sits in cash in European bank accounts.
That works out to $165 of the current $490 share price. This brings the ex cash trailing price earnings multiple down to a subterranean 11.8 times, or a 25% discount to the 16X market multiple. The dividend yield of 2.5% still exceeds that of the ten year Treasury bond. This is absurdly cheap.
Anyone who makes their living looking at the numbers has been loading up on the stock for the past eight months. Even permabear and short seller, Jim Chanos, has been buying on the theory that both Apple, and competitor Samsumg, together have been demolishing the Wintel architecture.
I think there is something important going on here. Apple is bringing out the next generation iPad in two weeks. Product refreshes for the iMac, Macbook, and Airbook in coming months are already well known. Every time an announcement of an announcement is made, the stock spikes $10.
But the 800-pound gorilla in Apples earnings stream is the iPhone, which accounts for more than 70% of its profits. The wildly successful 5s and 5c launches will take total smart phone sales from around 36 million in Q3 to at least 56 million units in Q4. The analyst community is nowhere near these numbers, so they are substantially underestimated the profitability of the company.
Apple has already cracked the China market for cash buyers with the latest upgrade of its wireless operating system. The whale here is a deal with China Mobile (CHL) with its 740 million customers, which has been to subject to on again and off again negations for years. Still, Apple has already told its manufacturers to add china Mobile to its approved carrier list.
I think the stock is beginning to discount the launch of the iPhone 6, which is still a distant 11 months away. That will take the company another generation ahead, with an expansive six-inch screen and a blazing fast A8 processor, leaving competitors in the dust.
The business is so big that my favorite airline, Virgin America, has initiated nonstop service from San Francisco to Austin. I?m told the plane is always full. That?s where they make processors for the new phones.
All of this leads me to believe that Apple will be a major mover in 2014. The chip shot is $600, and we get a real head of steam into the iPhone 6 rollout, we could match the old high at $707.
You can buy the stock here with some comfort. If you are hyper aggressive, try playing the weekly call options on the next breakout. The more cautious can settle for the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), or the ProShares Ultra Technology 2X leveraged ETF (ROM). Apple has major weightings in both of these ETF?s.?
For the link to the original story, please click here.
This year, your bonus is that you get to keep your job. That is the bad news that will be dished out to many disappointed staff during annual reviews at the major Wall Street firms this year.
We all know that volumes have been trading at subterranean levels, which have created a real draught of commission incomes. New regulations imposed by Dodd-Frank and the Volker rule mean that banks have to become boring, no longer able to juice earnings with trading revenues.
For boring, read less profitable, leading to smaller budgets for compensation. This is the price of preventing banks from committing suicide with your money in hand.
Industry compensation experts are seeing bonus cuts of up to 40%. Bond trading divisions are seeing the greatest cuts, reflecting a generational peaking of bond prices and volumes. Next is anything related to home mortgage origination and precious metals?
Senior staff is being nudged toward early retirement to further reduce overhead. Only private wealth managers are seeing pay increases, thanks to their ability to charge rich fees for enhanced customer service and place high margin products, like local municipal bonds.
The scary thing is that shrinking payouts is a trend that could continue for years. When I first started working on Wall Street 40 years ago, one out of three taxi drivers were brokers recently rendered jobless by deregulated commissions. Rates of 25 cents a share supported a lot of fluff.
Be careful next time you cross the street. You might get hit with some free investment advice.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ny-taxi-cabs.jpg260400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-19 09:13:532014-08-19 09:13:53Austerity Hits Wall Street
Featured Trade: (MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 27% GAIN IN 2014), (SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (EUO), (WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?) (GLD), (GDX)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
If you think this letter is being written by someone who is stoned, you?d be at least partially right this morning. For that is the after effect of my attending the Paul McCartney concert at Candlestick Park in San Francisco last night.
I was sitting in the infield in the most expensive $1,000 seats, well attended by Silicon Valley royalty. Excuse me Mr. Cook, can I please get by Mr. Ellison, hey, Sergei, love the service. I calculated that there was at least $1 trillion in market capitalization in my row, alone.
All that meant was that the second hand smoke in my section was more expensive, and more potent. And there was always the risk that the gyrating figure in the aisle on LSD might crash into you.
This was not a sit back in your seat and listen to the tunes concert. Some 70,000 people were on their feet for the duration, rocking out, dancing, and tapping their feet. McCartney, who appears immune to ageing, delivered in spades.
While he played, the fog rolled in from the bay, hit the high intensity lights, and vaporized, creating a surreal, magical effect.
Candlestick Park, which Paul pronounced in his drawn out Liverpudlian (scousian) accent, holds a special place in the hearts of Beatles fans. They first played there when the stadium was new in 1966. They last played together there in 1969. After tonight?s concert, it will be torn down.
Candlestick was originally built in 1959 to lure the Giants baseball team from Brooklyn. Structurally, it never recovered from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which occurred when a World Series was in play. The damp, freezing cold, the lack of mass transit connections, and the terrible parking have been perennial complaints about The Stick.
Last night, loyal fans could be seen digging up tufts of grass, or tearing down signs to take home. The San Francisco Giants moved downtown to play at AT&T Park more than a decade ago, and the 49ers relocated to a new stadium in San Jose this year.
To watch a video of McCartney?s blockbuster opening number, ?Eight Days a Week,? please click here.
This diversion aside, I am happy to report that I have been rocking out in my own way. The total return for my followers so far in 2014 has reached 27.1%, compared to a far more arthritic 2% for the Dow Average during the same period.
In August, followers have earned a welcome 3.2%, making it one of my best months of the year. Did I just hear someone shout at me to ?take more vacations??
The three and a half year return is now at an amazing 149.6%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 36%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 41%. Not bad in this zero interest rate world. It appears better to reach for capital gains than the paltry yields out there.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.
This has been a real trader?s market this year, with plenty of volatility in the past month, but little net movement in the overall indexes. I played the S&P 500 from both the long and short side, selling the peak within minutes and buying the bottom 5% lower.
I managed to eke out some small profits shorting the Treasury bond market (TLT), stopping out before the real carnage began.
A short position in the Euro (FXE), (EU) is the gift that keeps on giving. I am on my third roll-down in strikes over the past month. It also helps that I went into Russia?s latest incursions into the Ukraine with a tiny book, and 80% cash. Thus I have plenty of dry powder to act opportunistically going forward.
I am ready to use the next microdip to jump back in. It is just a matter of time before Apple breaks $100 a share and hits a new, split adjusted all time high.
In the meantime, the world is waiting to see whether the US can deliver a second half GDP growth rate of 4% per annum?or not. We might have to settle for 3%, given the new sanctions against Russia.
Quite a few followers were able to move fast enough to cash in on the move. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my testimonials page by clicking here. They are all real, and new ones come in almost every day.
My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, was no slouch either, dodging in an out of the raindrops to make money on an intra day basis.
What would you expect with a combined 85 years of market experience between the two of us? Followers are laughing all the way to the bank.
Don?t forget that Jim clocked an amazing 2013 with a staggering 374% trading profit. That was just for an eight-month year!
The Opening Bell with Jim Parker, a quickie but insightful webinar giving followers an instant snapshot of the market opening every day, has been an overwhelming success. Many customers have already reported dramatic improvements in their trading results.
Watch this space, because the crack team at Mad Hedge Fund Trader has more new products and services cooking in the oven. You?ll hear about them as soon as they are out of beta testing.
Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you. The latest is the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Channel on YouTube that enables me to post videos from my frequent travels around the world.
The coming year promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere by the end of 2014.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013.
Our flagship product,?Mad Hedge Fund Trader Pro, costs $4,500 a year. It includesGlobal Trading Dispatch?(my trade alert service and daily newsletter). You get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous research database and live biweekly strategy webinars. You also get Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service and?The Opening Bell with Jim Parker.
To subscribe, please go to my website at?www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the??Mad hedge Fund Trader PRO??or??Global Trading Dispatch??box on the right, and click on the blue??SUBSCRIBE NOW??button.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/John-Thomas5.jpg396355Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-18 09:33:452014-08-18 09:33:45Mad Hedge Fund Trader Sets New All Time High with 27% Gain in 2014
Treasury bonds spike to new one year highs, closing at a 2.40% yield, and trading as low as a 2.30% yield in the overnight market at one point last week. Clearly, serious deflation is continuing for the indefinite future.
Buy more bonds!
US corporate profits are at all time highs, just closing one of the strongest reporting periods in history. What?s more, the outlook they painted for the rest of the year is rosy. With dividend yields for many shares in excess of interest rates paid by government bonds, the bull market is alive and well.
Buy more stocks!
Stocks! Bonds! Stocks! Bonds! Which group of talking heads is right? The stock bulls or the bond bulls?
Yikes! What is a poor money manager to do?
Here is the certain answer to your plaintive question: They are both right.
So how does one deal with this dilemma? It?s easy. You buy everything, both stocks and bonds. That has been the judgment of the markets, which have sent both bonds and stocks flying in tandem for most of 2014.
How is this possible? Doesn?t this violate Economics 101? Should I take my copies of Paul Samuelson and Graham & Dodd and sell them on Ebay?
Not really.
Here is the explanation for it all. The world is now facing a cash glut unprecedented in history. There is so much money chasing everything these days, it is truly unbelievable for those of us rather long in the tooth. Prices can only go northward, whatever they are for.
Take a look at the U.S. government?s accounts, and you get a partial explanation. Over the past four years, the budget deficit has nearly vaporized, from a stratospheric $1.6 trillion to only $600 billion. Next year, $300 billion is in the cards.
This has caused the Treasury to massively cut back on new issuance. In fact, some recent government bond auctions have faced an outright shortage of bonds, prompting bid prices to spike.
The incredible thing is that this has been happening in the face of the Federal Reserve?s winding down of quantitative easing. By October, it will have removed $80 billion a month in bond buying to zero. Imagine how low rates would be by now if my friend, Fed governor Janet Yellen, had kept it going.
This is why virtually everyone in the world got the bond market wrong this year, calling for a swan dive, except for bond maven and hedge fund guru, Jeffrey Gundlach. I include myself in this category of errant prognosticators.
However, I still have a chance to be right. I expect bonds to give up all of their gains going into yearend, ending dead unchanged on the year with 10 year Treasuries showing a 3.0% yield. Improving US growth prospects is the reason.
In my New Year forecast (click here for my ?2014 Annual Asset Review?) I expected bonds to be weak, but not fall below a 3.50% yield. I was in a small minority of strategists who called for such a small decline in Treasuries. If I am right, and yields retrace to 3.0%, I will only be 50 basis points off my target, which is better than most.
But that is not to say that 10-year yields won?t first spike to 2.25% first, which happens to be Gundlach?s personal target.
I am a guy who puts his money where his mouth is, who eats his own cooking, and wears his opinions on his sleeve. So, I have been shorting bonds for all of this year.
But my trading approach is so forgiving, using price spikes to buy out of the money-put-spreads, that my followers have had more than adequate room to get profitably in and out.
Every single trade was either a winner, or broke even, except for one, adding an eye popping 10.61% to my 28% profit for 2014. It has been my most profitable trade this year.
While I have been dead wrong with the trend, I have been erring so slowly that we were able to coin it almost every month. Such is the forgiveness of the options spread strategy.
Physicists like ?unified theories? that explain everything, be they the movement of single electrons around nuclei, or galaxies in the universe. Here is a nice unified theory of everything for your investments: technology is curing all.
Hyper accelerating technology means that the price of things is falling faster than anyone believes. That means inflation stays at bay forever, which is great for bonds.
Technology is also reducing the cost, and even the need for labor by business. That is also disinflationary, and helps generate ever rising corporate profits, which is wonderful for stocks.
It all sounds like a ?buy stocks and bonds? explanation to me.
It reinforces the ?Golden Age? scenario for the 2020?s that I have been harping about all year, when the last impediment for growth, demographics, shifts from a headwind to a tailwind. That is when risk assets really go ballistic.
Maybe Google?s Ray Kurzweil is right? (click here for ?Peeking into the Future with Ray Kurzweil).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Wrong-Right-Sign.jpg351355Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-15 08:48:432014-08-15 08:48:43Bonds or Stocks: Who?s Right?
Featured Trade: (HOW THE UKRAINE CRISIS WILL PLAY OUT), (USO), (UNG), (WMT), (AAPL), (MCD) (MY PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDICATOR), (HMC), (NSANY), (GM), (F), (TSLA)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (NSANY)
General Motors Company (GM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
I can tell you exactly how the crisis in the Ukraine is going to play out. This has major implications for the global economy, financial markets and your personal portfolio, so listen up!
The key to deciphering this puzzle is oil, far and away Russia?s largest export. At 10 million barrels a day, the country is taking in $360 billion a year in revenues from oil shipments.
You can analyze Russia all day long, and come up with bullish arguments for the country, like the emerging middle class, its huge hoard of basic commodities, and substantial wheat exports. But Texas tea (Russian tea?) overwhelms everything else in its impact on the national accounts.
The bottom line is that Russia is basically a call option on oil. This is why I never buy the Market Vectors ETF Trust (RSX). Look at the charts below for oil, and it is clear that it almost trades tick for tick with the (RSX).
If I?m bullish on oil, I go straight to the end commodity, and not the intermediary, where price earnings multiples are permanently low, corruption is rampant and the rule of law is absent.
And therein lies the problem for Vladimir Putin.
Any chink in the global growth picture flows straight into the price of oil. Slower growth brings lower oil prices and therefore smaller incomes for the Russians. And guess who the principal threat to global growth is? Vladimir Putin and his attempt to take over the Ukraine by force.
So far, crude has dropped by 10% from the May peak of $107.60. That may not sound like a lot. But this is not your father?s Russian oil industry.
Back in the old days, when my friend, Occidental Petroleum?s (OXY) Dr. Armand Hammer and Fred Koch were the only Americans running around the Caucasus, oil there was incredibly cheap. There, technology was 50 years old and labor was virtually free. Slave labor is great for profit margins. If you don?t believe me, just ask Wal-Mart (WMT) and Apple (AAPL).
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet Union brought many far-reaching, unintended consequences. A big one is that Russia?s dependence on international trade grew tremendously. The country was also able to modernize its oil industry with extensive American assistance.
Russian oil production exploded, as did the cost of production. In my lifetime, expenses have soared from $5 to $70 a barrel. So when oil dips by 10% on the international markets, Russian incomes plunge by 25%. The Russian oil industry has become a highly leveraged affair.
This is why such relatively minor price declines brought apparently desperate actions by the Russian authorities to prop up the economy. They have imposed a 3% emergency VAT, or sales tax. While I was in Europe, four Russian tour companies were driven into bankruptcy by the banking sanctions, stranding some 10,000 tourists on Mediterranean beaches.
Now there is a ban on food imports from Europe, stranding thousands of trucks at the Russian borders. Russia doesn?t grow much food, thanks to their horrendous winters and short growing seasons. Essentially, it?s just wheat and potatoes.
Everything else has to be imported. Some of the lost food can be made up with new imports from emerging, non sanctioning economies, but not much. In the meantime, some 350 McDonald?s franchises in Russia are trying to figure out how to make Big Macs purely from domestic supplies. Good luck to that!
The thing that really struck me speaking to Russians in Europe this summer was Putin?s unbelievably high 85% approval rating (our congress is at 14%!). They trotted out the most incredible conspiracy theories which painted them as the injured party. (The Ukraine was trying to assassinate Putin when it shot down Malaysian Air 17, and then blamed it on Russia).
It almost reminded me of home. The Russians are calling their opponents ?fascists.? This is a people who act like WWII ended last week.
Which leads me to believe that Putin?s popularity is peaking. The sanctions coupled with falling oil revenues are starting to have a severe impact on Russian standards of living. It is a matter of time before this feeds into poor election results for Putin. Nationalism is great, but who wants to live on canned food left over from the Soviet Union (yuck!).
Putin knows this. So to head off the riot, he is going to declare victory in the Ukraine fairly soon, and then take his troops home. This will enable the Ukraine to snuff out the separatists and return to an uneasy peace. We might even luck out and get a written treaty.
If that is a case, you can expect global financial markets to rocket. There would me a massive shift of capital out the risk spectrum, out of bonds and into stocks. This would give the green light for my scenario where S&P 500 adds 10% from last week?s low to end of 2014.
Maybe this is what stocks are trying to tell us by refusing to go down more that 5% this summer and the face of a host of geopolitical disasters.
As for the exact timing for all of this, just watch the price of oil. The lower it goes, the sooner we will get a favorable resolution. The charts are hinting that another $5-$10 break to the downside is imminent.
The last Cold War drove the Soviet Union broke and Putin definitely has no interest in repeating the exercise.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/McDonalds-Russia.jpg321337Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-08-14 09:32:162014-08-14 09:32:16How the Ukraine Crisis Will Play Out
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