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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A few Thoughts on Trading Strategy

Newsletter

After one of the wildest rides in recent memory, the stock market has ground to a complete halt. So have virtually all other asset classes as well.

You can see this in the activity of my Trade Alert service as well. After sending out Alerts as fast as I could write them for the past three months, some three or four a day, the action has slowed to a snails pace. What gives?

I think that the sudden, universal optimism we saw break out all over in November and December ended up pulling performance out of 2014 back into 2013. Traders were picking up positions not only for the yearend rally, but the January one as well.

As a result, there is nothing for us to do in January. Our New Year asset reallocation rally happened last month. The net result has been one of the most boring starts to a new year in history, with trading confined to tortuous, frustrating low volume ranges.

What have been the best performing assets so far in 2014? Gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), (ABX), and bonds (TLT), (TBT), the worst performing ones of 2013. Don?t get your hopes up. These are only dead cat bounces prompted by short covering with broader, longer term bear markets.

In the meantime, the stars of last year have become the dogs of this year, like consumer cyclicals and banks. Suddenly, it has become an upside-down world, with the good becoming bad, and the bad good. Don?t expect this to last. It never does.

It gets worse. What if we didn?t pull forward only in January and the end of last year, but February and March as well? We could be sitting back on our haunches for quite a long time. Sounds like a good time to catch up on those old back issues of Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader that we didn?t have time to read because trading was too frenetic.

As for me, I am getting an early start on my tax returns this year so I can figure out how much my Obamacare is going to cost me. Thanks to my spectacular, once in a lifetime performance in 2013, Uncle Sam and I have quite a lot to talk about. What? You mean a $2,000 bottle of wine purchased in Portofino on the Italian Riviera (the seaside resort featured in The Wolf of Wall Street) is not deductible? If it is for Morgan Stanley, why not me?

Another reason for the sudden silence is that investors have suddenly become very cautious. We have just had a run for the ages. From my June 14 low I made a staggering 41.15% profit for my followers. My last 14 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable, as has every one so far in 2014. Those are serious numbers. While almost no one else matched these numbers, quite a few traders did well too.

Suddenly protecting performance has become far more important than catching that next marginal trade. When everyone else is in the same boat, markets go very quiet, until the boat tips over.

Things aren?t going to remain this dead forever. It reminds me of a witticism voiced by President Nixon?s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Herbert Stein: ?If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.?

When the Trade Alert traffic dies down, I get barraged by daily complaints from readers that I?ve gotten lazy, I?ve gotten too rich to focus on this anymore, and that I ought to be doing more. Can you blame them? With an 85% success rate with my Alerts, who wouldn?t want more?

One of the reasons that my success rate is one of the highest in the industry is that I know when to quit trading. Some 45 years trading the markets has taught me one thing. If you chase a trade that?s not there it?s a perfect formula for losing money. There is no law stating that you always must have a position. That?s what brokers want you to do, a mug?s game at best.

My advice to you? Go out and spend some of the hard earned money you made last year from my Trade Alert Service. I understand there are great deals to be had on large screen HD TV?s at Best Buy. Unfortunately, my hometown San Francisco 49ers blew a playoff game in the last 22 seconds, depriving me from a trip to New York for Super Bowl XLVIII. But if you?re from Seattle or Denver, you definitely have something better to do for the week leading up to February 2.

Out With the Old?

INDU 1-23-14

XLY 1-23-14

And In With The New...

ABX 1-23-14

TLT 1-23-14

Football-49er-SeahawksThere Goes My Super Bowl Trip

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Football-49er-Seahawks.jpg 400 388 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-24 01:04:402014-01-24 01:04:40A few Thoughts on Trading Strategy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Another Dinner With Robert Reich

Diary, Newsletter

I never tire of listening to economics guru, Robert Reich, speak about the economy. He was former Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton, and ran against Mitt Romney for governor of Massachusetts (he lost). He has published 13 books. Oh, and he dated our recent Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham, when they were in law school together at Yale.

I got to know Bob well when I took two of his courses at UC Berkeley, on public policy and labor statistics. His insights into the long-term evolution of the US economy are nothing less than breathtaking. New students are ordered to the bookstore to buy 400 pages of photocopied jobs data, which they must commit to memory. And he is damn funny.

Not everything Bob has to say makes pleasant listening. The central challenges for the economy are jobs and wages, not deficits or inflation. A rush to trim spending too fast unnecessarily robs the economy of growth. Look no further than Europe, where ill advised and ideologically driven austerity policies have led to near economic collapse. If similar policies are implemented here, they will no doubt bring the same result.

Past economic recoveries brought far more dramatic snap backs. After the 1929 crash, the GDP fell a staggering 28% over the following three years. Then in 1934 it bounced back by 8%, in 1935, by 8%, and 1936 by 10%. The stock market recovered two thirds of its losses. That compares to today?s tepid 2% growth rate.

Then in 1937, a rush to end stimulus prematurely sent the country into the second leg of the Great Depression. That didn?t end until 1942. Stocks fell again by half. The big question for us today is whether 2014 will be a replay of 1937.

All middle class coping mechanisms to deal with falling incomes have been exhausted. First, women entered the workforce during the seventies to offset spouses? declining wages. Then both began working longer hours. Today, Americans work 300 hours a year longer than Europeans and Japanese.

Finally, they turned to the home ATM in desperation during the nineties and 2000?s to make ends meet. Those cash machines abruptly shut down in 2008. Today, families have no resources left to maintain standards of living. This is why there has been no growth in the American median wage for 30 years. The declining consumer spending these trends inevitably produced our present slow growth economy.

There were two turbochargers that assured the downfall would be as dramatic as it has been. Globalization suddenly meant that the $75/ hour blue-collar worker was competing head to head against a $2/day Chinese wage slaves. The Internet made this face off practical.

Technology also created robots to replace workers on an enormous scale. Bob like to tell the story of an invitation he received to speak at a much-publicized factory reopening in the Midwest. When he took the tour, he found only 13 workers staring at computer screens running the place that had replaced 3,000 before them.

While we are seeing a weak recovery now, entry-level positions are paying a fraction of what they did a decade ago, not far above minimum wage. Those with only a high school education or less have taken the biggest hit, seeing unemployment rates soar to 15%. By contrast, college educated workers have an unemployment rate as low as 5%.

Of course the challenge for me has always been to translate Bob?s lofty, 30,000-foot views, steeped in millennia of history, into Trade Alerts tomorrow morning which make money for you, the reader, by Monday. That?s easier said than done.

Given my 130% net trading profit since the service started 38 months ago, I?d say so far, so good.

Robert Reich

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Robert-Reich.jpg 300 231 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-24 01:03:582014-01-24 01:03:58Another Dinner With Robert Reich
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 23, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 23, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(AIRLINE STOCKS ARE CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF),
(AAL) (UAL), (DAL), (LUV),
(TESTIMONIAL)

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-23 01:06:012014-01-23 01:06:01January 23, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Airline Stocks are Cleared for Take Off

Diary, Newsletter

When I was a young, clueless investment banker at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, the head of equity sales took me aside to give me some fatherly advice. Never touch the airlines.

The profitability of this industry was totally dependent on fuel costs, interest rates and the state of the economy and management hadn't the slightest idea of what any of these were going to do. If I were ever tempted to buy an airline stock, I should lie down and take a long nap first.

At the time, the industry had just been deregulated and was still dominated by giants like Pan Am, TWA, Eastern Air, Western, Laker, Braniff, and a new low cost upstart called People Express. None of these companies exist today. It was the best investment advice that I ever got.

If you total up the P&L's of all of the US airlines that ever existed since Orville and Wilber Wright first flew in 1903 (their pictures are on my new anti-terrorism edition commercial pilots license), it is a giant negative number, well in excess of $100 billion. This is despite the massive government subsidies that have prevailed for much of the industry's existence.

The sector today is hugely leveraged, capital intensive, heavily regulated, highly unionized, offers customers terrible service, and is constantly flirting with or is in bankruptcy. Its track record is horrendous. It is a prime terrorist target. A worse nightmare of an industry never existed.

I became all too aware of the travails of this business while operating my own charter airline in Europe as a sideline to my investment business. The amount of paperwork involved in a single international flight was excruciating. Every country piled on fees and taxes wherever possible. The French air traffic controllers were always on strike, the Swiss were arrogant, and the Italians unintelligible and out of fuel.

The Greek military controllers once lost me over the Aegean Sea for two hours, while the Yugoslavs sent out two MIG fighter jets to intercept me. As for the US? Did you know that every rivet going into an American built aircraft must first be inspected by the government and painted yellow before it can be used in manufacture?

While flying a Red Cross mission into Croatia, I got shot down by the Serbians, crash landed at a small Austrian Alpine river, and lost a disc in my back. I had to make a $300 donation to the Zell Am Zee fire department Christmas fund to get their crane to lift my damaged aircraft out of the river (see picture below). Talk about killing the competition!

So you may be shocked to hear that I think there is a great opportunity here in airline stocks. A Darwinian weeding out has taken place over the last 30 year that has concentrated the industry so much that it would attract the interest of antitrust lawyers, if consumers weren?t such huge beneficiaries.

With the American-US Air (AAL) deal done, the top four carriers (along with United-Continental (UAL), Delta (DAL), and Southwest (LUV) will control 90% of the market. That is up from 60% only five years ago. The industry has fewer seats than in 1982; while inflation adjusted fares are down 40%. Analysts are referring to this as the industry?s new ?oligopoly advantage.?

Any surprise bump up in oil prices is met with a blizzard of higher fares, baggage fees, and fuel surcharges. I can't remember the last time I saw an empty seat on a plane, and I travel a lot. Lost luggage rates are near all time lows because so few now check in bags. Interest rates staying at zero don?t hurt either.

The real kicker here is that stock in an airline is, in effect, a free undated short volatility play on oil. If oil doesn?t move, airline stocks go up. You may have noticed that I have written at length on the rough balance that has emerged in the global oil markets, where rising Chinese demand is offset by increasing US production from fracking. The end result has been the lowest volatility in the oil market in years.

This is not a bad position to have when peace talks in Geneva with Iran threaten to collapse the price of oil. On top of that, you can add the huge economies offered by the new Boeing 787, known in the industry as the ?plastic fantastic, which uses 40% less fuel than existing models.

I picked United Continental Group (UAL) because it suffered from some integration problems from their recent merger, like a reservations system that wouldn?t work. That gives them the greatest snap back potential.

And even if the fuel savings turn out to be modest, a recovering US economy should boost profitability, given its recent maniacal pursuit of controlling costs. Some airlines have become so cost conscious that they are no longer painting their planes to gain fuel savings from carrying 100 pounds less weight! Just the missing pretzels alone should be worth a few cents a share in earnings.

This is not just a US development, but an international one. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has just raised its forecast of member earnings from $7.6 billion in 2012 to $10.6 billion in 2013, a gain of 40%. The biggest earnings are based in Asia (China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China), followed by those in the US, with $3.6 billion in profits.

Add all this together, and the conclusion is clear. The checklist is complete, the IFR clearance is in hand, and it is now time to push the throttles to the firewall for the airline stocks and get this bird off the ground.

And no, I didn't get free frequent flier points for writing this piece.

Meet the New Big Four

LUV 1-22-14

AAL 1-22-14

UAL 1-22-14

DAL 1-22-14

John Thomas CroatiaTime to Consider Another Career

United AirplainFly the Friendly Skies with a Long Position

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/United-Airplain.jpg 191 284 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-23 01:04:362014-01-23 01:04:36Airline Stocks are Cleared for Take Off
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 22, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 22, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY FEBRUARY 14 SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH),
(WHY THE WORLD HATES THE AUSSIE),
(FXA), (EWA), (EWZ), (FXI),
(REVISITING CHENIERE ENERGY),
(LNG), (USO), (UNG)

CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
iShares MSCI Australia (EWA)
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-22 01:06:282014-01-22 01:06:28January 22, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Friday February 14 Sydney Australia Strategy Lunch

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Sydney, Australia at 12:00 noon on Friday, February 14, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and a minute question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I also hope to provide some insight into America?s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $199.

I?ll send you a PowerPoint presentation in advance to cover the broad range of subjects we may discuss.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive downtown waterfront restaurant the details of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

Sydney, AU

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Sydney-AU.jpg 321 433 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-22 01:05:472014-01-22 01:05:47Friday February 14 Sydney Australia Strategy Lunch
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why the World Hates the Aussie

Newsletter

Discretion certainly can be the better part of valor. That was the feeling that came over me last weekend when I saw the Australian dollar (FXA) plunge to a new three year low against the buck.

I had been mulling over buying the Aussie around the $88 support level for the past couple of months. After all, with a synchronized global recovery in progress, and an international bull market in stocks underway, Australia is usually your first stop on the buy side.

Then the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABARE) showed up to take away the punch bowl. It reported that December job losses came to 22,600, when the market had been expecting a gain of 7,000. That leaves total employment at 11.63 million and the unemployed at 722,000.

This is the equivalent to a US monthly nonfarm payroll flipping from a forecast +100,000 to -300,000. Yikes! It?s amazing that the Australian All Ordinaries stock index didn?t go to zero yesterday. Talk about a party pooper.

The technical picture couldn?t be more dire. A crucial support level at 88 cents that held all the way back to 2010 suddenly became a distant memory. A brief attempt to break the 50-day moving average to the upside at $90.50 failed miserably. Looking at the eight-year chart below, an undeniable double top is now in place at $105. The current downtrend has $85, and then $80, beckoning on the downside.

Further peeing on the parade from the greatest possible height has been the loose-lipped governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, who has been talking down the Aussie at every opportunity. In his latest foray, he declared large-scale currency intervention to be part of the central bank?s ?tool kit? to boost the economy. Translate this into plain English, and it means a lower Aussie soon.

You really have to ask why all is not well in the Land of Oz in the face of such unremittingly positive news elsewhere. Looking at the charts below, it is clear that Australia is currently fighting a currency war with Brazil, the other major supplier of natural resources to the world economy. That?s because a lower currency makes a country?s exports cheap in the international marketplace.

So far, Brazil is winning big time. The Real having cratered some 26% against the dollar over the past year, compared to only a 17% decline for the Aussie. Governor Stevens obviously is trying to play a game of catch up. But he has a long way to go.

There are other reasons for the weakness in the Ausie. It may have contracted emerging market disease, whereby investors shun small undeveloped economies in favor of large developed ones. A dependence on commodities is not exactly something you want to wear on your sleeve these days in this deflationary environment. Why have any hard assets in your portfolio as long as paper ones are going to the moon?

The more frightening question is whether the global economy has evolved to the point where it no longer needs Australian exports as much as it did in the past. I have been warning readers for some time that the Chinese economy, Australia?s largest customer, is moving from a commodity consuming export model to a domestic services oriented one.

You don?t need as much iron ore, coal, or uranium when a growing share of your added value is intellectual, and not physical. Stabilizing population growth means you can get away with less food too. This explains why commodity prices have been flat in the face of a Chinese GDP that is still growing at a 7.7% rate. This is all bad news for Australia.

These are all vexing, important questions deserving more first hand, in depth, on the ground research. I think I?ll start by checking out the bikinis at Sydney?s Bondi Beach in two weeks.

FXA 1-21-14 (2)

FXA 1-21-14

EWA 1-21-14

USD-BRL

Women in BikinisWorthy of Further Inspection

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Women-in-Bikinis.jpg 278 407 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-22 01:04:322014-01-22 01:04:32Why the World Hates the Aussie
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 21, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 21, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 12 AUCKLAND NEW ZEALND STRATEGY LUNCH),
(HOW OBAMACARE WILL BOOST YOUR PORTFOLIO),
(XLV), (GILD), (XLS), (XPH), (XBI), (GOOG)

Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Exelis Inc. (XLS)
SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH)
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)
Google Inc. (GOOG)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-21 09:21:142014-01-21 09:21:14January 21, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Wednesday, February 12 Auckland, New Zealand Strategy Lunch

Diary, Lunch, Newsletter

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Auckland, New Zealand on Wednesday, February 12, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and question-and-answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I also hope to provide some insight into America?s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $189.

I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. The lunch will be held at a downtown boutique hotel the location of which that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheon, please go to my online store.

 

Auckland

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Auckland.jpg 350 491 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-21 09:20:292014-01-21 09:20:29Wednesday, February 12 Auckland, New Zealand Strategy Lunch
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio

Newsletter

Still basking in the glow of 2013?s spectacular 26% gain in the Dow, I sat down on a rock on a high mountain the other day to try and figure out what happened.

The last time I saw a move this healthy was back in the nineties, when a perfect trifecta of the internet going mainstream, cheap graphical user interface enabled personal computers, and an easy to use World Wide Web conspired to create a Dotcom boom and send risk assets everywhere ballistic.

Sure, the advent of cheap domestic energy unleashed by the fracking and horizontal drilling of natural gas is a game changer. But that isn?t enough to suddenly convert every investor from a pessimist to an optimist, a Cassandra to a Pollyanna, or a bear to a bull. So what else is helping to send stocks ever Northward?

Fortunately, I brought along an abacus with me to my high altitude retreat. So I ran a few numbers. Approximately 18% of US GDP is derived from the health care industry in some form or another. In Europe they spend only 8%, live longer, and certainly eat better food (I spent two months field testing it last summer).

So what happens when America?s Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, brings our spending down to European levels? The savings would amount to 10% of GDP, or $1.6 trillion. That is a handsome amount of change.

Where would all of this money go? The short answer is: to you and me. To be precise, I get half, and you get half, which works out to $800 billion for each of us, per year.

The reality is a little more complicated than that. We are not going to get our new found wealth in unmarked bills stuffed in a duffle bag left at a dead drop in the middle of the night. Rather, the payoff will come in an indirect form. We will get better quality health care for less money, and more of us will get it, some 48 million to be precise. Oh, and we get to live longer too.

What are we going to do with this windfall? Buy stocks, and lots of them. At least that?s what the stock market thinks. Hence, last year?s ballistic move in equities. This year could be just as good.

If fact, we will be buying a lot of everything, which is why the auto industry is on fire, real estate is recovering, yet the bond market hasn?t crashed. This amount of money hitting the financial system over the coming decade could well be the appetizer to an investment ?golden age? during the 2020?s.

This is fabulous news for asset owners of all stripes, and pretty good for everyone else as well. Companies with rising share prices are much more likely to hire and expand capital investment than those with falling ones, raising standards of living.

The way this happens is what makes Obamacare so interesting, unlike the purely government sponsored plans now in operation in Europe and Asia. It does this with a heavy reliance on the private sector to unleash free market capitalism on the health care industry for the first time in its history.

At last, they will be thrown into the merciless pit of dog eat dog, cutthroat competition where the rest of us have already been living for quite some time. They will be the losers, and we will be the winners.

I have been studying health care for about 40 years now. I was once destined to become a medical researcher at the Center for Disease in Atlanta. But the Defense Department found out I was pretty good with numbers, and I found myself in a bleak part of Northern Nevada now known as Area 51.

When improving relations with the Soviet Union wound things down there and all the aliens went home, there was nowhere else for me to go but the stock market. Suffice it to say, I still know which end of a test tube to hold up.

Health care is the last 19th century industry that operates in this country (except possibly for coal mining). It is fragmented into local monopolies spread amongst the country?s 3,141 counties.

I haven?t had health insurance myself for seven years. After paying on a Blue Cross of California policy for 20 years, they suddenly cancelled my policy claiming an alleged pre existing condition. My real pre existing condition was that I was a 55-year-old white male.

Since I was paying out of pocket for every trip to the doctor, I became an expert on what things cost. The first thing that I learned is that no one in a doctor?s office knows what anything costs. They deliberately don?t know. That way they can feign innocence when you get hit with a whopping big bill.

It was only with the greatest persistence that I was able to chase down the actual dollar cost of tests and procedures. Needless to say, my health care providers considered me a nut case and a pain in the ass. Some refused me care.

This is the land of the $100 plastic hypodermic needle, the $300 paper gown, and the $1,000 saline drip (it?s salt water). MRI Scans can cost $6,000, or $1,500 at the hospital down the street. In fact, I?ve had friends show up for procedures at hospitals with a $3 gown they bought on Ebay, but were still forced to use the identical $300 version.

This is why the wealthiest guy in the county is often the one who runs the local hospital, or sells specialized prescribed treatments and procedures. From 1995 to 2012, dermatologists saw a 50% increase in annual incomes to an average $471,000 while most of America saw a steady decline in real take home pay. Oncologists and gastroenterologists did as well. This is especially true in rural parts of the country where there is a chronic shortage of doctors. Competition is anathema to these people.

What broke the health care system in this country is that there was a total absence of cost control, but an unlimited ability to get paid. If you?re having a heart attack, you don?t shop around for the hospital offering the best deal on surgery that week, as we might for a new set of tires or a new computer. Being the savvy consumers that we have become, if we don?t like the prices down at the mall we just go online. That?s tough to do with health care.

With insurers or the government picking up the tab whatever the cost, there was no incentive to do so anyway. Doctors excessively ordered tests to protect themselves from lawsuits, thanks to a tort system run amuck. Drug companies kept inventing new diseases (do any of you male readers suffer from ?low T??). Indulgent lifestyles assured that ever rising numbers of us got sick, driving prices skyward.

By creating national exchanges selling plain vanilla policies and setting rigorous standards on what they will pay for (?death panels? to opponents), American health care costs are now falling for the first time in history. 2013 saw the first year on year fall on record. This is only the beginning of that $1.6 trillion plunge in costs.

No one really knows what the marginal cost of an MRI scan is. But if you count the capital cost of buying a new $1.4 million machine, deduct the fee the specialist to read the scan, the $60,000 annual salary of the technician to run it, along with maintenance and depreciation, and I bet you get a number a hell of a lot less than $6,000. We are soon going to find out what the marginal cost really is.

This is why opposition to Obamacare has been so violent and vehement four years after it became law. Those who have been feeding off of the gravy train for so long will do anything to protect it. $1.6 trillion buys a lot of lobbyists in Washington DC. Most opposing Obamacare in the media are being paid to do so. Ask them exact details about exactly why it is so bad and they either mumble some lame ideological explanation or go mute.

States that support Obamacare and set up their own exchanges, like California, New York, and Kentucky, are seeing dramatic reductions in the cost of health care costs and insurance, up to 50% in some cases. Those that oppose it, such as Texas, are not.

The great irony in all of this is that the states opposing Obamacare need it the most. The 13 states of the old southern Confederacy suffer the worst health in the country. Take three states out of the national averages, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama, and the average male life span jumps from 78 to 82. I?m told they eat pure lard down there, not exactly a health food.

So Obamacare is basically a giant federal program that shifts money away from the two coasts toward the South and Midwest, or out of blue states into red ones. This is the same pattern for all large government programs. Why they are against Obamacare one can only imagine, except possibly the name.

I have been pointing out to the administration for years that they have greatly underestimated the long-term impacts of Obamacare on the economy, most of which are positive. This has led them to unintentionally undersell the program. The impact of the world?s large economy is so enormous that it was impossible to foresee all of the unintended consequences. The only way to find out was to do it.

I?ll give you a couple of examples. Take the ?Obama lied? issue, where the president promised voters they could keep their existing doctors and insurance. By setting minimal coverage and care standards the government put out of business the ?junk insurance? industry, which provides questionable policies with deductibles of $8,000 or more, low lifetime maximums, and boot you off your coverage as soon as you sneeze. They had a bad habit of taking in your premium income and disappearing as soon as you made a major claim, with denials at some companies running as high as 50%.

Banning these rip-offs from the industry is all well and good. But nobody knew there were so many such polices, over 5 million. It turns out that no research had been done on this ugly little backwater, as it was purely a private sector enterprise. Then the cancellation letters all went out at once, to the shock and surprise of everyone.

There is the fact that so few have signed up for the free and subsidized coverage. When you are living paycheck to paycheck, about 20% of the country, even $100 a month is too much to spend. Many just don?t like doctors or hospitals and will only sign up after they are seriously ill, probably at the prompting of a social worker.

I can tell you from my journalist days that 40% of the population doesn?t read newspapers at all, either the online or hard copy kind. Unless something appears on ESPN or the Golf Channel, they have no clue that it exists. There are those who still can?t operate a computer, as unbelievable as that may seem in the 21st century.

Then there is the website fiasco, the most easily preventable error in the entire rollout. I would bet big money that Health and Services Director, Kathleen Sebelius, has never built her own website. For her, I highly recommend Building a web Site for Dummies (click here for Amazon), which helped me get Mad Hedge Fund Trader off the ground seven years ago.

I was outraged when I heard that the lead contract for the construction of the website was given to a Canadian firm. I raised my hand and said ?Hey, we out here in Silicon Valley know how to build websites too.? They should have just given the whole thing to Google (GOOG). But that would have raised conflict of interest questions, as founders Larry Page and Sergei Brin were two of Obama?s largest donors.

Corporations will get, thankfully, out of the health care business completely, offloading coverage to Obamacare as fast as they can. Small companies are already doing this in large numbers because workers can get better coverage for less money. This will level the playing field with foreign competitors for the first time in more than half a century, whose own governments cover the health care costs of their employees for free.

Those in the hedge fund, banking, and oil industry luxuriating in $30,000 a year formerly tax free Cadillac insurance plans now have to pay ordinary income tax on benefits worth more than $10,000 a year. With most of the tax subsidy gone, there is little reason for employers to continue with these perks.

What is the bottom line for the shareholders in all of this? A substantial reduction in costs that drops straight to the bottom line, creating surging profits and stock prices.

All of the above is a major reason why health care has been a major plank in my trading portfolio for the past six months, and may remain so for the next decade. Followers of my Trade Alert Service cashed in on my long in the Health Care Sector Select SPDR ETF (XLV).

Those who took my advice to buy hepatitis drug manufacturer Gilead Sciences (GILD) joyfully watched it run away to the upside. Expect this to be a recurring theme in my equity coverage. (XLS), (XPH), and (XBI) are on the menu and looking tasty.

Every country in the world that has implemented national heath care has been successful. We are the smartest people in the world, so there is no reason we can?t make it work as well, if not better. Only political obstacles stand in the way.

It could well be that the stock markets are the first to see these momentous changes, far ahead of we mere mortals. Such is the wisdom of markets. So far, your investment portfolio agrees.

It will be at least a decade before we can judge the results of Obamacare, it is so vast and complex an undertaking. Up for grabs are individual markets for over 10,000 different treatments and services. It is far too early to call it a failure or a success. In any case, the earliest it can be repealed is 2025, after Hillary Clinton completes her second term as president. So get used to it.

What about my own insurance? I am going to wait until the last possible moment to sign up for Obamacare, when they are about to come for me with handcuffs and a taser. I bet many other Americans plan on doing the same.

By then, the website should be working and the costs brought in line with reality. Then I?ll buy the cheapest possible policy, the popular ?Bronze? plan.

After all, who needs health insurance if they are going to live forever?

XLV 1-17-14

GILD 1-17-14

XPH 1-17-14

ObamaThey Said This Would Be So Easy

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Obama.jpg 312 472 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-01-21 09:18:382014-01-21 09:18:38How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio
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