By now, you have figured out that I executed a major ?derisking? of my model trading portfolio today, cutting my exposure by two thirds. Most of these positions only had a few basis points in maximum profit left, so bailing here was a no brainer, a case of ?Basic Risk Control 101.? Better to laugh about the market in a few days or weeks, than cry. My profits this year are so huge that they are well worth defending.
There is an eerie silence going on in the markets now. All real news has ceased. The government data releases that dictate the short-term direction of prices have come to a complete halt, thanks to the government shutdown. The rest of the news is all political, which is to say that it is useless. When markets are driven by opinions instead of facts and data, you want to run a mile.
I recently spoke to some Tea Party activists, and the extent to which they hate President Obama is frightening. They would happily subject the country to another Great Depression if it meant they could be rid of the community activist from Chicago for good.
The debt ceiling crisis gives them the means to do exactly that. Therefore, I believe that the current impasse in Washington will last longer than the market expects. What the Tea Party doesn?t understand is that once you shatter confidence, it is very hard to get it back.
As a result, my friends in the high frequency trading community tell me that the risk of a flash crash is rising. All you need is for the wrong comment at the wrong technical point in the charts on the wrong day and a deluge of cascading selling could result. That day could be October 17.
This is clearly a minority view, but it is not impossible. Take a look at how the momentum names, like Netflix (NFLX) and Herbalife (HLF) are getting hammered today and you?ll see what I mean. This was further confirmed by the volatility index (VIX) breaking through $20 today, up more than 50% from a month ago.
So I?ll let valor be the better part of judgment here and move from a serious ?RISK ON? trading book, to one that is more clearly market neutral. That demands I cash in my winnings in short positions in the Japanese yen (FXY), and my long in Apple (AAPL).
As for my long in the Japanese stock market (DXJ), I?ll have to settle for a stop out with a moderate loss. It?s not the first time that I have lost money in Japan, nor certainly the last. This was the ?Bridge Too Far? among my trades this year.
I still am sticking with my medium term bull case, which sees us moving to new highs by yearend. But we could see one big final flush before we turnaround. That?s when I want to jump in wit both hands and go fully invested once again. To best profit from such a scenario, you have to go into the next dump with the most cash possible. Today?s action gets us close to that point.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Fed-Govt-Closed.jpg335502Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-09 01:04:352013-10-09 01:04:35Cutting Back My Risk
After crawling off the mat at the 12% level, and rising all the way back up to 21%, traders are wondering if the Volatility Index (VIX) is finally coming back to life. Or is this just another dead cat bounce?
It wasn?t supposed to work that way. Falling markets should send investors scrambling to buy downside protection in the form of put options, which would automatically send the (VIX) soaring. Except when they don?t.
I spoke to over a dozen market participants yesterday attempting to root out the cause of this seeming anomaly. All I got was shrugs or idle speculation. A (VXX) at this level, the ETF for the (VIX) assumes that the complacency now endemic in the market will continue for several more months. It is betting that the S&P 500 will continue moving sideways or up with no pullbacks greater that 5%. Oh, really?
It is also discounting a rise in the (SPX) to 1,750, based on a multiple expansion from 16 to 17, while corporate earnings are falling. This will see confirmation when Q3, 2013 earnings start to hit in October. Oh, really, again?
I finally got through to some friends in the Chicago pits who explained what was going on. A sizeable portion of the trading community believes that we will see a rise in volatility someday, but not in the near future. So they have been buying October call options in the (VIX). To pay for these and hedge out their risk, they have been selling short calls in the front months of December and March at much higher implied volatilities.
Since the (VXX) focuses on only the front two months of the options calendar, it has taken an inordinate brunt of the selling. This is why the (VXX) has continued a rapid decent even on days when the (VIX) was stable and the Dow was down. Needless to say, it has been a huge moneymaker for the early participants.
How does this end? At some point we do get a serious sell off in the stock market, and the (VIX) rockets back up to 30%, or higher. That means that anyone who initiates this position now will get slaughtered. But the long-term players will simply write those losses off against the substantial short dated premium they have taken in until then.
As long as this dynamic is in place, there really is no limit to how far the (VXX) can fall. As traders roll from one expiring month to the next, they will continue to hammer volatility.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Man-Pogo-Stick.jpg430288Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-09 01:03:422013-10-09 01:03:42What?s Going on With the VIX?
Yang Yanming was slowly led from his cell by two burly uniformed guards in Beijing?s central prison to a waiting van in the courtyard, his hands cuffed behind him and his head bowed. Once in the vehicle, he was strapped to a gurney, hooked up to an IV, and given a highly concentrated injection of sodium pentobarbitol.
Minutes later, a technician checked his pulse, and pronounced him dead. He then pulled out a scalpel, made a long vertical incision down Yang?s abdomen, and deftly harvested his organs. Placed in ice chests, they were rapidly sold off on China?s booming organ market.
The unfortunate Yang was a former stock trader convicted of embezzling $9.52 million from Galaxy Securities during 1997 to 2003. Once arrested, his trial, conviction, and execution were carried out in rapid-fire succession in a matter of months. No hanging around death row for decades here, as is common practice in the US. Yanming never revealed where the money went, according to the Beijing Evenings News, possibly because he never committed the crime. We, and Yang?s family, will never know.
The move was part of a broader effort by regulators in Beijing to crack down on rampant corruption in the securities industry. Still, the more people they execute in the Middle Kingdom, about 10,000 this year, the more they remain the same. Great for the human organ business, but not so good for white-collar crime prevention.
During the last three decades, a series of politically inspired ?get tough on crime? campaigns in the US, started by Ronald Reagan, has produced one of the biggest lock ups is human history. Inmates held by federal and state penal systems have soared from 500,000 to 3 million, and the numbers are growing by 200,000 a year. The American prison system has grown so large that it rivals the old ?Archipelago? in the Soviet Union during the 1930?s. The old urban legend about the government building a vast secret complex of concentration camps is true.
One out of 100 Americans is behind bars, and one out of 35 is either in jail, or on probation. The cull has been particularly severe among ethnic minorities, with one out of three African Americans either in prison, on probation, or related to someone who is.
There has been a vast expansion in America of the definition of criminality. For example, tax evasion only became an imprisonable offence in 1984. A Supreme Court ruling extended the meaning of ?cocaine? to include crack swooped up tens of thousands. Widening the scope of old laws lowering the bar for conviction has also occurred in firearms ownership, hate crimes, the environment, pornography, the collection of Indian artifacts on federal land, and of course securities offenses. The closure of dozens of state hospitals around the country has also dumped large numbers of the mentally ill into the penal system, making prisons the new de facto mental hospitals.
There has also been a huge bull market in retribution that has contributed to the upsurge. Thanks to three strikes laws, an offender who stole a 95-cent cassette tape from a Seven Eleven in California got 30 years. The judge said his hands were tied. Teenaged children in Florida, not old enough to drive, are getting life sentences. Bernie Ebbers and Ken Lay might have gotten away scott free in the seventies, or at worst, caught five year sentences. Today 25 to life is standard for such offenses, an effective life sentence for a CEO or senior hedge fund manager. Bernie Madoff?s 150-year sentence seems pointless. It is not going to get people their money back.
Law enforcement experts, social workers, and even mathematicians all agree that this ?get tough? stance is having absolutely no impact on crime prevention. For a start, no one commits a crime with the intention, or even the remote expectation of getting caught. You can raise sentences to 1,000 years and it will still make no difference.
Many, like Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin, who ran the Bear Stearns hedge funds, are not even aware that their activities might be perceived as illegal. The war on drugs has been a complete failure, with prices lower, narcotics more available, and more kids addicted than 30 years ago, despite DEA budgets running in the tens of billions.
With state and federal prosecutors now on the warpath against hedge fund managers, bankers, and aggressive deal makers in real estate, the realm of the illegal is about to undergo yet another? enormous expansion. But try telling that to a politician running for office in a borderline district. Crooks are not allowed to vote.
Demographics are the true origin of crime. The number of young males in the population peaked in the early seventies and has been on a downtrend ever since, along with crime rates. Crime is even immune to the economic cycle. You may not have noticed that crime went down last year, even though we were facing the worst economic and employment crisis in eight decades.
Some attribute the fall off in male population to the legalization of abortion by Roe v. Wade in 1973, which led to an immediate drop in newborns tossed into dumpsters, raised by the state, and living a life of crime. Malcolm Gladwell even has a pet theory that falling crime rates are due to the removal of lead from gasoline, also in 1973, which caused lead poisoning, mental illness, and a propensity for violence.
The big problem with the war on crime is that, while generating no tangible results, it is massively expensive.? Some $80 billion will be spent incarcerating America?s state and federal prisoners this year, a figure that is bleeding cash starved state and municipal governments white.? California spends more on prisons than on teachers. Governor Jerry Brown has tried to cut corners by packing prisons to 300% of their legal capacity, offloading inmates to unwilling counties, and by offering health care that a Federal judge has ruled ?cruel and unusual punishment.? Most prison gyms and libraries have been converted to dorms packed with three bed bunks end to end. In a desperate measure, the state is freed 20,000 nonviolent prisoners because it can?t afford to house or feed them.
If we adopted Chinese style crime and punishment, we?d save the $65,000 a year it costs to lock up miscreants like Bernie Madoff in high security facilities. Just execute the sons of bitches. The US could recover leadership in the human organ business, and we could convert unused prisons into schools, killing three birds with one stone.
There is another alternative to locking people up and throwing away the key. How about reforming the legal system? Take punishment out of the hands of politicians and bring them more in line with the offense. Perhaps 20% of the Golden State?s 270,000 inmates are serving long terms for possessing small baggies of pot that would earn them at worst a traffic ticket in most other Western countries, or nothing at all.
It might also be worth investing in some education for inmates to reduce the appalling rate of recidivism from the current 70%. Prisons officials now give released inmates $25, dump them on a street corner in a crummy neighborhood, and tell them ?See you when you come back.? Shorter prison sentences and longer probation might be another economical answer.
This would all require some brave political leadership around an unpopular issue. Don?t hold your breath. In the meantime, check out the article ?Why a Kidney (Street Value: $5000) Sells for $85,000?. The next kidney up for sale may be yours.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Chinese-Prioson-Guards.jpg323432Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-08 08:56:422013-10-08 08:56:42The New War on Hedge Fund Managers
Featured Trade: (NOVEMBER 1 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SAY GOODBYE TO THE WASHINGTON DISCOUNT), (XLY), (UCC), (XLI), (UXI), (XLK), (ROM), (XLV), (RXL), (THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER?S NUCLEAR POWER PLANT)
Consumer Discret Select Sector SPDR (XLY)
ProShares Ultra Consumer Services (UCC)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
ProShares Ultra Industrials (UXI)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV)
ProShares Ultra Health Care (RXL)
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Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, November 1, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $191.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
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If it hasn?t happened by today, then it is no more than a week away. The deep discount suffered by American stocks is about to go away. Thanks to the manufactured uncertainty emanating from the nation?s capital created by the government shutdown, stocks have been selling at a 10% or more discount to where they should be.
As things stand, the shutdown is chopping about 1/8% a week from America?s GDP growth. If it runs for another week, it will add up to a 0.25%. What economists haven?t considered in these figures is the additional 0.25% loss that will come from a restart of the government. People are so afraid of the shocking cessation of many government services that they are cleaning out ATM?s, forcing the banks to maintain higher than normal cash levels.
The 2013 Federal budget provides for $3.8 trillion in government spending out of a $16.5 trillion GDP, some 23%. I tried to get more precise figures by clicking the link for the Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis website (http://www.bea.gov/index.htm ), and was greeted by the closest thing you can imagine for a middle fingered salute. You just don?t snap your fingers and expect a quarter of the economy to sprint out of the blocks.
There is another cost to consider. All government statistics have been rendered meaningless for the rest of the year. Even if the government restarts tomorrow, aberrations in the data will plague us well into next year, making economic forecasts more difficult and less meaningful than usual. This is when the moving averages for data series will really earn their pay.
My political theory for the past three years has been that the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party will act unimaginably stupid, dragging governance to new lows, wreaking the maximum amount of damage possible. They feel that if they can?t own the government, they must break it.
Gerrymandering means they can?t be dislodged by elections. These people are being cheered by supporters for their appalling behavior back home in the heartland of America. This will ultimately lead to the destruction of the Republican Party, and is why President Obama is quite happy to sit on his hands and do nothing. Why interfere when your opponent is committing suicide?
So far I have been right on the money. An accurate political read has been a major element in delivering my 100% gain since the end of 2010, no matter how unpopular it may be.
This analysis has the government shutdown lasting until October 17, little more than a week from today, and vastly longer than expected. That?s the day the government shutdown rolls into the debt ceiling crisis. With far more cataclysmic consequences at stake, this crisis has a greater likelihood of getting solved.
This is all spectacular news for investors, who have recently been boning up on their history. The 17 government shutdowns since 1975 have averaged six days. After each one, stock rose by an average 7.8% in the following six months, and by 13.2% over the following year. We could be in for similar returns in this round. ?It looks like its going to be off to the races once again, and my yearend target of 1,780 for the (SPY) is looking good.
The 0.5% in growth we are losing this quarter will get rolled into the next. Q1, 2014 was already setting up to be hot, thanks to a global synchronized recovery in the US, Europe, Japan, China, and even Australia. Some 60% of world GDP is now enjoying unprecedented easy money. This concentration of more growth into the next quarter could take the US GDP figure as high as an annualized 3.5%.
Portfolio managers have already figured this out, which is why they are relentlessly buying every dip, and explains the modest 3.5% drop in the S&P 500 we have seen since the shutdown began. Providing additional rocket fuel is the fact that many firms are under the gun to get new money into the market by the end of the year.
There is one certainty here. The shutdown firmly takes a taper by the Federal Reserve off the table for 2013. It turns out that Ben Bernanke correctly read that the Tea Party would drive the economy off a cliff, and that the safety net of continued monetary stimulus was needed. Nice call, Ben! This will give the bulls the fodder they need to take stock prices up all the way until next spring, when we may finally get a real taper.
I would be using the down days from here on to scale into the hottest sectors of the market, especially the 2X leveraged ETF?s. You can do this with consumer discretionary stocks with the (XLY), (UCC), industrials with (XLI), (UXI), technology with (XLK), (ROM), and with health care through the (XLV), (RXL).
This is what I really want to know. Last Sunday, the hit TV drug show, Breaking Bad, saw its series finale. The cult terrorism drama, Homeland, delivered its third season opener at the same time. The next day, the government closed.
Do you think there is a connection?
Is There a Connection?
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On my recent trip to Oregon I met with venture capital investors in NuScale Power, which is trailblazing, the brave new world of ?new? nuclear. Their technology has been pioneered by Dr. Jose Reyes, dean of the School of Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis.
This is definitely not your father?s nuclear power plant. The company has applied for design certification with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a mini light water reactor with a passive cooling system rated at 45 megawatts. The idea is to site a dozen of these together, which in aggregate can generate 540 Megawatts, little more than half the size of the old 1 gigawatt monsters.
Running a dozen small reactors instead of one big one makes for vastly easier operation and maintenance, as individual units can be brought on and offline as needed. Small size also eliminates the need for gargantuan, expensive containment structures. This power source runs at night, when solar and wind plants are offline. Modular design makes mass production of these units economical.
Once certification, approval, permitting, and construction are complete, we can expect to see the NuScale plants running by 2018. After all, if something similar works in nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers, why not in industrial zones on the outskirts of town? For more on NuScale?s innovative efforts visit their website at the following link: ?http://www.nuscalepower.com/ .
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NuScale-System-Design.jpg475394Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-10-07 01:03:492013-10-07 01:03:49This is Not Your Father?s Nuclear Power Plant
Featured Trade: (OCTOBER 9 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (AN EVENING WITH THE CHINESE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE), (FXI), (CYB), (BIDU), (CHL), (BYDDF), (CHA)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
China Mobile Limited (CHL)
BYD Company Ltd. (BYDDF)
China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA)
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Featured Trade: (JOIN THE INVEST LIKE A MONSTER SAN FRANCISCO TRADING CONFERENCE), (THE MAD DAY TRADER?S Q4 TARGETS), (SPY), (QQQ), (TLT), (USO), (UNG), (GLD), (FXY), (FXE), (AN AFTERNOON WITH DR. PAUL EHRLICH), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
NewGold Debentures (GLD)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
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