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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 13, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 13, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(DOUBLING UP ON MY YEN SHORTS),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (UUP),
(SAN FRANCISCO?S SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT),
(WHERE THE ECONOMIST ?BIG MAC? INDEX FINDS CURRENCY VALUE),
(MCD), (FXE), (YCS), (FXF), (CYB)
(TESTIMONIAL)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-13 01:07:522013-11-13 01:07:52November 13, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Doubling Up On My Yen Shorts

Newsletter

My bet that the Japanese yen (FXY) would weaken against the dollar has paid off handsomely. I am now so confident that we are finally breaking out of a six month trading range to the downside that I am more than happy to double my short position in the yen.

I am therefore taking on the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) December, 2013 $101-$104 in-the-money bear put spread, moving $1 down in the strikes, but keeping an ever shortening December 20 expiration. The other nice thing about this position is that we will benefit greatly from time decay going into the volatility sapping Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

The official reason for the weakness is that the shockingly strong October nonfarm payroll released on Friday will prompt the Federal Reserve to taper its quantitative easing program sooner than later, possibly as early as the December meeting. That would raise interest rates for the greenback while yen interest rates will remain nailed to zero for years to come. This is important, as interest rate differentials are the primary driver in the foreign exchange markets.

The real reason is that traders expect the Bank of Japan to become more aggressive in its campaign to weak the yen and further stimulate economic growth. Japanese companies are now reporting blockbuster earnings, thanks to a falling yen, and the central bank would like to see more of the same.

With the Japanese government actively seeking to cut the knees out from under their own currency, while the Fed will soon take moves to strengthen theirs, a short yen/long dollar trade here a no brainer.

The Tokyo stock market is certainly a believer. Last night, the Nikkei average soared by 2.2%, the biggest move in three months. That?s why I have also been recommending the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) for longer-term investors, a long stock/short yen ETF.

For more probing and illuminating depth on why the Japanese yen is about to crater, please read ?The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen?.

FXY 11-12-13

YCS 11-12-13

DXJ 11-12-13

Woman - Hari KariIt?s All Over for the Yen

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Woman-Hari-Kari.jpg 280 396 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-13 01:06:542013-11-13 01:06:54Doubling Up On My Yen Shorts
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 12, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 12, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(YOU JUST CAN?T KEEP AMERICA DOWN),
(TLT), (SPY), (GLD),
(A SPECIAL NOTE ON NOVEMBER EXERCISED OPTIONS)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:05:152013-11-12 01:05:15November 12, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

You Just Can?t Keep America Down

Newsletter

You just can?t keep America down. That is the overwhelming message from Friday?s blockbuster October nonfarm payroll showing that 204,000 jobs were added, double the industry forecasts. The headline unemployment rate ratcheted back up from 7.2% to 7.3%, the first gain in many months.

August and September were revised up by an eye popping 60,000 jobs. October private sector job growth came in at a stunning 212,000. Apparently, the prospect of an imminent default by the US government prompted many corporate managers to rush out and hire! Go figure.

Without the Washington shutdown we probably would have seen a 300,000 print. It appears that 223,000 federal workers were temporarily laid off, but later received back pay, so they weren?t counted as jobless.

Leisure and hospitality was up an unbelievable 53,000. Retail added 44,000. Professional and technical services tacked on 21,000. Health care increased by 12,000 jobs, anticipating an onslaught of 30 million new customers with government guaranteed payments, thanks to Obamacare.

It confirms what I have been arguing since the summer, that the US economy is far stronger than anyone suspects, and that we are accelerating with an upward trajectory. This is the recurring theme that I get from speaking to dozens of CEO?s every month, whose views on the health of their own business usually beat the government data releases by 3-6 months. Believe me, I don?t talk to these guys because they wear snappy suits.

Of course, the initial market reaction was negative, since the good news is seen as advancing the Federal Reserve?s tapering of its quantitative easing program. This certainly was the read by the stock market on Thursday, when a surprise interest cut in the Euro and a blistering 2.8% Q3 GDP report triggered a 150 sell off in the Dow. Gold took it on the nose again, dropping $25. But we made it all back, and more, the next day, disproving this analysis, for everything, except gold.

Bonds really took it in the keister, the (TLT) dropping two and a half full points, bumping ten year Treasury yield up from 2.60% to 2.77%, one of the most extreme pops of the year in the fixed income markets. I came within a hair?s breadth of doubling my bond shorts the previous day, but decided to wait for the payroll report. This time, discretion was not the better part of valor.

If anyone had any doubts about the extreme, but underestimated strength of the economy, better take a look at the chart below of growth of the broader monetary aggregates. We are running at a nearly white hot 40% YOY growth rate.

This reflects a huge increase that is occurring in the velocity of money, a number that almost no one tracks, in addition to the Federal Reserve?s never ending monetary expansion. This is because more people everywhere are doing more business with each other. Despite what you hear in the media, confidence is rocketing. This eventually has to feed into higher reported GDP growth rates and will justify ever-higher share prices.

How many individual investors believe this? Almost no one. This year, $114 billion has trickled back into equity mutual funds. That is only a dent in the $600 billion this group tore out of equity mutual funds over the last five years. That fact alone should be worth another 25% of upside in the indexes.

For more depth on the rapidly evolving fundamentals in the economy, click here for my recent piece on ?The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up?.

TLT 11-8-13

Adjusted Monetary Base

Uncle Sam - FistIn Better Shape Than He Looks

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:04:322013-11-12 01:04:32You Just Can?t Keep America Down
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Special Note on November Exercised Options

Diary, Newsletter

There are only 4 days left until the equity option expiration on November 15. My short dated November expiration play turned out to be wildly successful, with all nine of these trades quickly turning profitable. Including the six positions we now have on board, the last 14 consecutive Trade Alerts have been profitable, raising the success rate of our service to a stunning 85%.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s model trade portfolio has three remaining positions that are deep in-the-money that expire that day. So, it is important that we tread carefully to get the full benefit.

I received a few emails from readers whose option holdings have already been exercised against them, and have asked me for advice on how best to proceed. So, here we go.

The options traded on US exchanges and referred to in my Trade Alerts are American style, meaning that they can be exercised at any time by the owner. This is in contrast to European style options, which can only be exercised on the expiration day.

The call option spreads that I have been recommending for the past year are composed of a deep out-of-the-money long strike price plus a short portion at a near money strike price.

When stocks have high dividends, there is a chance that the near money option you are short gets exercised against you by the owner. This requires you to deliver the stock equivalent of the option you are short, plus any quarterly dividends that are due. Don?t worry, because your long position perfectly hedges you against this possibility.

You usually get notice of this assignment in an email after the close. You then need to email or call your broker back immediately informing him that you want to exercise your remaining long option position to meet your assigned short position.

This is a gift, as it means that you can realize the entire maximum theoretical profit of the position without having to take the risk of running it all the way into expiration. You can either keep the cash, or pile on another short dated option spread position and make even more money.

This should completely close out your position and leave you with a nice profit. This is not an automatic process and requires action on your part!

Assignments are made on a random basis by an exchange computer, and can happen any day. Exercise means the owner of the option that you are short completely loses all of the premium on his call.

Dividends have to be pretty high to make such a move economic, usually at least over 3% on an annual rate. But these days, markets are so efficient that traders, or their machines, will exercise options for a single penny profit.

Surprise assignments create a risk for option spread owners in a couple of ways. If you don?t check your email every day after the close, you might not be aware that you have been assigned. Alternatively, such emails sometimes get lost, or hung up in local servers or spam filters, which occasionally happens to readers of my own letter.

Then, you are left with the long side deep out-of-the-money call alone, which will have a substantially higher margin requirement. This is equivalent to going outright long the stock in large size.

This is a totally unhedged position now, and suddenly, you are playing a totally different game. If the stock then rises, you could be in for a windfall profit. But if it falls, you could take a big hit. Better to completely avoid this situation at all cost and not take the chance. You are probably not set up to do this type of trading.

If you don?t have the cash in your account to cover this, you could get a margin call. If you ignore this call as well, your broker will close out your position at market without your permission.

It could produce some disconcerting communications from your broker. They generally hate issuing margin calls, and could well close your account if it is too small to bother with, as they create regulatory issues.

In order to get belt and braces coverage on this issue, it is best to call your broker and find out exactly what are their assignment policies and procedures. Believe it or not, some are still in the Stone Age, and have yet to automate the assignment process or give notice by email. An ounce of prevention could be worth a pound of cure here. You can?t believe how irresponsible some of these people can be.

Consider all this a cost of doing business, or a frictional execution cost. In-the-money options are still a great strategy. But you should be aware of all the ins and outs to get the most benefit.

John Thomas

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-2

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-12 01:03:322013-11-12 01:03:32A Special Note on November Exercised Options
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 11, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER 2013 PERFORMANCE TOPS 51%),
(TLT), (TBT), (AAPL), (XLI), (IWM), (SPY)
(TESTIMONIAL),
(A TRIBUTE TO A TRUE VETERAN)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI)
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-11 01:06:272013-11-11 01:06:27November 11, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Blasts to new All Time High

Diary, Newsletter

The Trade Alert service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a new all time high in performance, taking in 46.05% so far in 2013. The three-year return is an eye popping 101.7%, taking the averaged annualized return to 35%. That compares to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of 19%.

This has been the profit since the groundbreaking trade mentoring service was launched 35 months ago. These numbers place me at the absolute apex of all hedge fund managers, where the year to date gains have been a far more pedestrian 3%.

These numbers come off the back of a blistering week in the market where I added 5% in value to my model-trading portfolio. I called the top in the bond market on Monday, shorted the Treasury bond ETF (TLT), and bought the short Treasury ETF (TBT). Prices then collapsed, taking the ten-year Treasury bond yield from 2.47% to 2.63%.

I then pegged the top of the Euro (FXE) against the dollar, betting that the European Central Bank would have to cut interest rates to head off another recession. Since then, the beleaguered continental currency has plunged from $1.3700 to $1.3350 to the buck.

I then bet that the stock market would enter another tedious sideways correction going into the Thanksgiving holidays. I bought an in the money put spread on the S&P 500, and then bracketed the index through buying an in the money call spread.

Carving out the 2013 trades alone, 57 out of 71 have made money, a success rate of 80%. It is a track record that most big hedge funds would kill for.

This performance was only made possible by correctly calling the near term direction of stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, energy, precious metals and the agricultural products. It all sounds easy, until you try it.

My esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, has also been coining it. He caught a spike up in the volatility index (VIX) by both lapels. He also was a major player on the short side in bonds.

The coming winter promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere in 2014. The Trade Alerts should be coming hot and heavy.

Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service and my daily newsletter, the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader. You also get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars, order?Global Trading Dispatch PRO?adds Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service.

To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? or "Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO" box on the right, and click on the blue ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.

TA Performance YTD

FXE 11-1-13

TLT 11-1-13

TBT 11-1-13

SPY 11-1-13

Jim ParkerMad Day Trader Jim Parker

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/TA-Performance-YTD.jpg 699 490 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-08 10:10:562013-11-08 10:10:56Mad Hedge Fund Trader Blasts to new All Time High
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 8, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 8, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE RISING RISK OF A MARKET MELT UP)
(FXE), (FXY), (YCS), (FXA), (SPY), (USO),
(THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ)

CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
United States Oil (USO)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-08 01:05:172013-11-08 01:05:17November 8, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up

Newsletter

The risk of a major market melt up just took a quantum leap upward with the European Central Bank?s surprise 25 basis points in interest rates a few minutes ago. The move had not been expected from normally sleepy and moribund European monetary authorities for a few more months.

The ECB?s action has major positive implications for the world economy. It gives a shot of adrenalin to a global synchronized economic recovery, which was already in the cards for 2014. The effect on all asset classes will be huge.

Of course, the Euro ETF (FXE) crashed by $1.70, as one would expect, one of the largest moves of the year in the foreign exchange markets. We already took profits on a short position we strapped on in the Euro the last time it ran up to $1.38, which turned out to be the peak of a multi month move. But it has also spilled over into the other currencies, expanding into a much broader move into the US dollar.

The Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) has just puked up 60 basis points, where we have a major short position and were looking to add. As a result, we have already gained 58% of the potential profit for a position that we added only two days ago. The Australian dollar (FXA), where I am also attempting to go long on a bigger dip, has lost 50 cents. Gold took it on the nose, again.

The other blockbuster event, which transpired this morning, was the release of the early read of US Q3 GDP, coming in at a red hot 2.8%. This was much higher than expected, with many estimates hovering around the 2.0% level. This means that the 0.5% we lost in the Washington shut down will turn out to be just a speed bump. We should make it all back, and much more, in the run up to Q1, 2014.

But wait! There?s more!! The price of oil has plunged by $20 in six weeks, thanks to the massive oversupply coming out of US fracking fields, and the movement of US-Syrian hostilities to a back burner. Even an Israeli attack on a Russian resupply of missiles at a Syrian port failed to generate any interest in Texas tea. Two months ago, this would have been worth a one day, $5 spike.

The US Energy Information Agency calculates that a $20 cut in the price of oil adds 0.4% to US GDP, and cuts unemployment by 0.1%. Newly enriched consumers spend more money and corporations with lower costs earn more profits. In other words, it cancels out the negative effects of the Washington shutdown in one fell swoop.

The University of California argues that ten out of the last 11 recessions were triggered by oil price spikes. The inverse is true as well. Collapsing oil prices create economic booms. Guess which way we are headed?

US Q3 earnings reports are generating extremely favorable comparisons, up about 10% YOY in aggregate. We have an extremely favorable calendar right now, as November and December are traditionally strong months for risk markets. Maybe it?s also that holiday grog. We also have the 2014 ?Great Reallocation? out of stocks and into bonds to look forward to, which has probably already started.

It all adds up to a first class market melt up, which could start at any time. Indeed, given the torrid market performance since the summer, and its Teflon like behavior during the October Washington shutdown, some strategists are claiming that a melt up has already started. The net net of all of this is that the world looks like a much friendlier place, and I am much more inclined to add risk than I was only a few minute ago when I dragged my sorry ass out of bed.

Below, please find the posture you should take in the markets listed by asset class.

*Stocks - ?buy the dips, running to a new yearend highs, especially in technology,? industrials, health care, and consumer cyclical
*Bonds - ?sell rallies, heading to the top of the 2.50%-3% 10 year yield range
*Commodities - start scaling in on dips in copper, iron ore
*Currencies - sell yen on any rallies, buy the Australian dollar on a China recovery
*Precious Metals - stay away, the world wants? paper assets
*Volatility - stand aside, will bounce along bottom
*The Ags - stay away until next year, great weather is killing prices, but too late to sell short

Crude Oil Demand

FXE 11-7-13

FXY 11-7-13

FXA 11-7-13

WTIC 11-6-13

Wall Street Bull

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Wall-Street-Bull.jpg 439 367 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-08 01:04:312013-11-08 01:04:31The Rising Risk of a Market Melt Up
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 7, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 7, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SELLING THE YEN, AGAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),
(ENJOY THE DOLLAR RALLY WHILE IT LASTS),
(FXA), (FXC), (BNZ), (CYB), (FXE)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC)
WisdomTree Dreyfus New Zealand Dollar (BNZ)
WisdomTree Chinese Yuan (CYB)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-07 01:05:232013-11-07 01:05:23November 7, 2013
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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