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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Price Tag for Clean Coal

Diary, Newsletter

I wanted to get the low down on clean coal (KOL) to see how clean it really is, so I visited some friends at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The modern day descendent of the Atomic Energy Commission, where I had a student job in the seventies, the leading researcher on laser induced nuclear fission, and the administrator of our atomic weapons stockpile, I figured they?d know.

Dirty coal currently supplies us with 35% of our electricity, and total electricity demand is expected to go up 30% by 2030. The industry is spewing out 32 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year and the great majority of independent scientists out there believe that the global warming it is causing will lead us to an environmental disaster within decades.

Carbon Capture and Storage technology (CCS) locks up these emissions deep underground forever. The problem is that there is only one of these plants in operation in North Dakota, a legacy of the Carter administration, and new ones would cost $4 billion each. The low estimate to replace the 250 existing coal plants in the US is $1 trillion, and this will produce electricity that costs 50% more than we now pay. In a gridlocked constrained congress, this is a big ticket that is highly unlikely to get picked up.

While we can build a wall to keep out illegal immigrants from Latin America, it won?t keep out CO2. This is a big problem as China is currently completing one new coal fired plant a week. In fact, the Middle Kingdom is rushing to perfect cheaper CCS technologies, not only for their own use, but also to sell to us. The bottom line is coal can be cleaned, but at a frightful price.

KOL 8-28-13

Smokestacks Coal?s Popularity is Fading Fast

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-29 09:08:442013-08-29 09:08:44The Price Tag for Clean Coal
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Who is Ben Bernanke?

Diary, Newsletter

Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depends on the judgment of Ben Bernanke these days, I thought I?d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke?s War on the Great Panic.

I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn?t already know. I couldn?t have been more wrong, as David gave me some fascinating insights into the inner soul of our much-vaunted Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Bernanke was the smartest kid in rural Dillon, South Carolina, who, through a series of improbable accidents, and intervention by a local black civil rights leader, ended up at Harvard. He built his career on studying the Great Depression, then the closest thing to paleontology economics had to offer, a field focused so distantly on the past that it was irrelevant. Bernanke took over the Fed when Greenspan was considered a rock star, inhaling his libertarian, free-market, Ayn Rand inspired philosophy in great giant gulps.

Within a year, the economy suddenly transported itself back to the Jurassic Age, and the landscape was overrun with T-Rex?s and Brontosaurs. He tried to stop the panic 150 different ways, 125 of which were terrible ideas, the remaining 25 saving us from the Great Depression II. This is why unemployment is now only 9.1%, instead of 25%.

The Fed governor is naturally a very shy and withdrawn person, and would have been quite happy limiting his political career to the Princeton, NJ school board. To rebuild confidence, he took his campaign to the masses, attending town hall meetings and pressing the flesh like a campaigning first term congressman.

The price tag for Ben?s success has been large, with the Fed balance sheet exploding from $800 million to $2.7 trillion, solely on his signature. The true cost of the financial crisis won?t be known for a decade or more. The biggest risk is that we grow complacent, having pulled back from the brink, and let desperately needed reforms of the financial system and the rebuilding of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slide. This is already starting to happen.

How Bernanke unwinds this bubble will define his legacy. Too soon, and we go back into a real depression. Too late, and hyperinflation hits. That?s when we find out who Ben Bernanke really is.

220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/220px-Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait.jpg 275 220 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-29 09:06:082013-08-29 09:06:08Who is Ben Bernanke?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 28, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 28, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(OIL SPIKE SENDS TRADERS SCRAMBLING),
(USO), (GLD),
(ORDER EXECUTION 101),
(THE GREAT COPPER CRASH OF 2013),
(CU), (FCX)

United States Oil (USO)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index (CU)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-28 01:06:342013-08-28 01:06:34August 28, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Which One Did You Say I Should Buy?

Newsletter

Wow! That was some speech! Secretary of State, John Kerry, was certainly rattling the saber last night when he laid out the irrefutable evidence confirming the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Defense Secretary, Chuck Hagel, then upped the ante by asserting that US military forces are ?ready to go.? Oil (USO) hit a two and a half year high at $109, and gold (GLD) finally resumed its ?flight to safety? character by spiking up $30.

I happened to know that the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been war gaming for Syria for over a year now, and have presented President Obama with a list of graduated levels of response. What is new is the movement off assets to the immediate area, like a major carrier task force, which will park 100 miles offshore in the Eastern Mediterranean for the foreseeable future.

My pick is for a no-fly-zone, which the administration should have executed a long time ago. It is cheap and can be implemented remotely, with no risk of casualties. Drones will come in useful too. F-16 fighters now carry smart missiles with a 70 range. If a pilot in Syria takes off, then poof, they?re gone in 30 seconds.

Although the financial markets are expecting immediate action, we may not get it. When traders started speculating about military strikes, you want to run a mile. Obama is first and foremost a pacifist and needs more than overwhelming evidence to fire a single shot. He even hesitated over taking out Osama bin Laden. He also is a lawyer, so he won?t move until the needed international legal framework is in place, such as a United Nations resolution.

The great irony in all this is that the current crisis has absolutely no impact on the actual supply and demand of oil. Syria doesn?t produce any. It is a net importer of oil. All of the other major crude producers in the Middle East are backing US action, except for Iran, a marginal producer at best. Pure emotion is driving the price here. That is why oil and gold have been going up in tandem, until recently a rare event.

If anything, there is a severe imbalance developing in the crude markets that will soon send prices sharply southward. Thanks to a triple barrel push of improving economic data, Egypt, and then Syria, Wall Street has built up a record long in the oil futures market of some 1.9 million contracts. That works out to an incredible 95 days of daily US consumption, or 256 days of imports. That is a lot of Texas tea sloshing around the books of hot handed traders.

We are just coming to the close of the strongest driving season in 31 years, and demand will soon ebb. And guess what? The economic data is now softening. Unwind just a portion of the speculative long position in oil, and we could quickly return to the $92-$95 range that prevailed before the multiple crisis.

Don?t just stop at oil. Syria?s president, Bashar al-Assad is setting up a buying opportunity for the entire range of risk assets, including longs in US stocks and short positions in bonds, yen, and the euro.? If we get no Fed taper in September, as I expect, it could be off to the races once again.

WTIC 8-26-13

USO 8-27-13

GLD 8-27-13

Corpses

Meet Your New Trading Strategy

Bashar al-Assad

Meet You New Market Timer

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Bashar-al-Assad.jpg 399 411 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-28 01:05:222013-08-28 01:05:22Which One Did You Say I Should Buy?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Great Copper Crash of 2013

Diary, Newsletter

When Dr. Copper (CU), the only commodity with a PhD in economics, suddenly collapses from a heart attack, risk takers everywhere have to sit up and take notice. Since the 2011 top, the red metal has collapsed a shocking 35%.

So called because of its uncanny ability to predict the future of the global economy, copper is warning of dire things to come. The price drop suggests that the great Chinese economic miracle is coming to an end, or is at least facing a substantial slowdown. This dark view is further confirmed by the weakness in the Shanghai index ($SSEC) which has been trading like grim death all year. Will China permabear, Jim Chanos, finally get his dream come true?

It?s a little more complicated than that. Copper is no longer the metal it once was. Because of the lack of a consumer banking system in the Middle Kingdom, individuals are now hoarding 100 pound copper bars and posting them as collateral for loans. Get any weakness of the kind we have seen this year, and lenders panic, dumping their collateral for cash.

The high frequency traders are now in there in force, whipping around prices and creating unprecedented volatility. You can see this also in gold, silver, oil, coal, platinum, and palladium. Notice how they seem to be running the movie on fast forward everywhere these days? Because of this, we could now be seeing an overshoot on the downside in copper which may never actually materialize to this extreme in equities or other asset classes.

Watch Dr. Copper closely. At the first sign of any sustained strength, you should load up on long dated calls for Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the world?s largest producer, which also has been similarly decimated. The gearing in the company is such that a 50% rise in the price of copper triggers a 100% rise in (FCX).

So what is copper telling us today? The longer term charts show a prolonged bottoming process. If this holds, we could be seeing the early days of a resurgence in the global economy. Just get Syria, Egypt, the debt ceiling crisis, and the taper out of the way, and we could be in for a major run. That is a tall order. But just to be safe, I am buying long dated calls in the next major dip in (FCX), which may have started today.

COPPER 8-26-13

CU 8-27-13

FCS 8-27-13

PenniesA Penny for Your Thoughts on Copper?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Pennies.jpg 274 399 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-28 01:03:562013-08-28 01:03:56The Great Copper Crash of 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 27, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 27, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE TECHNICAL/FUNDAMENTAL TUG OF WAR),
(SPY), (INDU), (IWM),
(AND MY PREDICTION IS?.),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(THERE ARE NO GURUS)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)
iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-27 09:08:272013-08-27 09:08:27August 27, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Technical/Fundamental Tug of War: Who Will Win?

Newsletter

For the last few weeks, I have had two groups of analysts screaming in my ears.

Fundamental researchers are asserting that at $105 per share in earnings, generating a price earnings multiple of 15, stocks are at the historic middle of a 10-22 range. Q2 earnings are over, and modestly outperformed on the upside, although not with the magnitude seen in recent quarters. Plus, the taper is on the table, and the Federal Reserve may deliver a surprise at its upcoming September meeting.

Furthermore, risk assets are about to enter a period of seasonal strength. If you ?sell in May and go away?, you should then ?return in September and buy, fill your boots.?

No, no, cry the technicians. Although the small caps (IWM) have been going gangbusters, the large cam Dow and S&P 500 indexes have failed to put in new highs, raising the risk of a failed double top.

What is a befuddled individual investor to make of all this? My belief is that fundamentals always win out over the long term, and that technical cues are at best, a lagging indicator. I use charts for guidelines on where to place orders on a short term basis. The longer you stretch out your time frame, the less relevant they become.

At best, technicals are right 50% of the time, right in the same league as a coin toss, and most of the brokers and investment advisors out there. How many technical analysis hedge funds are out there? None. They are all fundamentally driven. The same technicians making the incredibly bearish prognostications today were making equally convincing bearish arguments last November.

However, since we are descended from prehistoric hunter-gatherers, we are all visually oriented. We respond to stimuli we can see much more rapidly than those we can conceive. A picture truly is worth 1,000 words, and probably a lot more. That?s why so many brokerage firms use them to sell research. I employ charts to back up my fundamental arguments because they are so easy to understand, definitely not the other way around.

So I think the fundamentals will eventually win out, and that we will get the autumn rally that I have been predicting. In fact, we may be only four years into a seven year bull market that is in the process of boosting price earnings multiples from 10 to 18 or 19. The mountain of cash sitting on the sidelines, and the failure of the major indexes to pull back more than 7.5% this year are telling you as much.

Exactly when will the big move up happen? Don?t ask me. Go ask a technician.

SPY 8-26-13

SPY a 8-26-13

NDXA50R 8-23-13

Neanderthol

Great Technician, Lousy Fundamantalist

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Neanderthol.jpg 324 398 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-27 09:07:372013-08-27 09:07:37The Technical/Fundamental Tug of War: Who Will Win?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 26, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 26, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(RIDING WITH TREASURY SECRETARY JACK LEW)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-26 08:45:052013-08-26 08:45:05August 26, 2013
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Riding With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew

Newsletter

I was perusing my morning email in Zermatt a few weeks ago, and spotted the familiar White House address with the .gov ending. Would I be interested in meeting with the new Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew? It was just what I needed to lure me out of my Alpine lair back to the USA. I responded ?yes,? and instructions followed to meet him at the private jet terminal at San Francisco on August 22.

Half a globe and nine time zones later found me shaking hands with the nation?s 76th Treasury Secretary. The man is maybe 5?8? and squinted at me through wire frame glasses as he gave me a firm handshake. He wore the standard DC uniform, a dark solid suit with a white shirt, which I always thought made everyone look like undertakers.

?You can ride with me to my next event,? he said, inviting me into a spanking new tan GM Suburban with tinted windows. I thought ?Why not GM?? After all, until very recently the government owned a third of the troubled company. After the 1980 Chrysler bailout, that firm provided government rides for decades.

We then took off, escorted by a second Suburban packed with Secret Service agents and bracketed by two California Highway Patrol cars with red lights flashing, racing down Highway 101 at 80 miles an hour. ?Where are we going,? I wondered. ?Google, Apple, or Facebook??

Lew is the first Treasury Secretary appointed in many years who I did not already know. I dated back to the eighties with Tim Geithner in my Tokyo days after he read my books on Japan. Of course, I was long familiar with Hank Paulson from his time with Goldman Sachs, when I was first a competitor, and later a hedge fund client. So my goal today was to try to get the measure of Lew and figure out who he really was.

Lew told me that he was taking over a ship far more seaworthy than the one Geithner inherited four years ago. GDP has bounced back from a negative 5% to a 2% annual rate. Job growth rebounded from 700,000 losses to 200,000 gains a month. Automobile production returned from the grave, soaring from 9 million to 16 million annual units.

Taxes have been lowered for 98% of taxpayers, and major reform has been carried out in financial services, health care, and education. These gains have been made, despite a fiscal drag created by congress that is slowing the economy by 1% this year.

There was still plenty of work to do on jobs, a task made more difficult by the fact that the Republicans have opposed every jobs bill of the past four years. That is why boosting exports has been a top administration priority. The offshoring trend has slowed, and may even be reversing. Fixing our broken immigration system and getting college costs under control are also important.

Yes, it was all the standard Obama party line. But as this was our first meeting, I couldn?t expect a lot of confidences. Lew lacked the intellectual muscle of his predecessor, Geithner, who could discuss the most obscure parts of the financial history of the world with amazing depth. Lew struck as more of a technocrat with impressive experience in the day to day management of government institutions.

I asked Lew why he was known as the ?father of sequestration,? which has drained $85 billion out of the economy this year. He said the plan was a worst-case scenario that was never intended to be implemented. ?Who would have thought the Gang of Six wouldn?t get anywhere on this?? he asked.

Lew then went on to hint that an equally punitive Sequester II might be on the way in the wake of the next debt ceiling deadline in December. The Republicans are using the credit rating of the United States as a political lever, and the economy will suffer as a result.

Business and consumer confidence suffered a body blow during the last debt ceiling negotiations in 2011, and a jittery stock market plunged 25%. Lew confessed that he didn?t know how long cash on hand will last, and that social security checks, Medicare reimbursements, and payments to veterans may have to be halted.

I asked why the administration had declared war on the banking system.? He opined that 2008 was a failure of regulation and oversight. The financial system should be big and healthy enough to finance every good idea and provide loans to all credit worthy homebuyers. A strong and vibrant financial system was important for the US and the world.

But risks for taxpayers must be reduced, which is the goal of Dodd Frank.? Only 40% of the mandated rules have been drafted, and 60% of the deadlines have been missed, thanks to the overwhelming complexity of the task. International cooperation is needed to prevent business from flowing to the weakest regulator.

It was the day of the NASDAQ failure, and our conversation was interrupted by urgent calls from Washington several times. First there was SEC head, Mary Jo White, and then NASDAQ, Chief Robert Greifeld. When president Obama called for an update, the Treasury Secretary pulled out an armored and heavily encrypted cell phone and spoke in murmured tones. All I could make out during his calm and matter-of-fact explanation was ?server down? and ?no back up?.

The subject of China came up, and Lew confided that he had already met with president Xi Jinping several times. It was clear that the Middle Kingdom had over invested in manufacturing, creating a dangerous level of excess capacity. ?They agree with our recommendations,? he said with some surprise. I said I noticed that too. The real problem was in the execution, getting anything done in an emerging economy of 1.2 billion.

I cautioned the Treasury Secretary not to repeat the same mistake Geithner made in his early days and brand China a ?currency manipulator,? even if it was true. You don?t want to do that to someone who is holding $1 trillion of our debt, and until recently accounted for the purchase of half of all new Treasury issues.

We covered a broad range of other international financial issues, which I can?t discuss here for national security reasons. I hope I don?t read about them on Wikileaks someday.

A native of New York City, Lew did his undergrad at Harvard and his law degree at Georgetown. On graduation, he moved down the street and went straight into politics, where he worked for house majority leader, Tip O?Neill. He held several senior government posts during the Clinton administration. His wilderness years during the Bush administration were spent at New York University, and as the chief operating officer of Citicorp (C).

When president Obama took charge, Lew returned as an assistant Secretary of State, then Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and eventually to White House Chief of Staff. He is said to know more about the American budgeting process than any man alive, a talent that will prove useful in his current incarnation.

I couldn?t help but inquire about his pick for Ben Bernanke?s replacement, the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Somewhat irritated, he shot back, ?I will keep my advice in the Oval Office where it belongs.?

I finally pulled out what seasoned journalists call their ?throw away? question, the one, if asked, is so annoying that it gets you thrown out of the room, or in this case, left by the side of the freeway. ?Why a lawyer as Treasury Secretary? Wouldn?t someone with a more substantial economic background be better suited to the task??

He smiled when he answered that our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, was also a lawyer (click here for my in-depth piece on him in ?The Two Century Dollar Short?). Several men have recently held the post that came from industry or other professions.

In that case, I cautioned him not to befall the fate of Hamilton, who was shot in a duel by vice presidential candidate, Aaron Burr, on a New Jersey shore.

Just then, our procession pulled up to the Computer History Museum where Lew had to deliver a speech. I said he knew my email address and could call any time. We shook hands, and he breezed past an onslaught of TV cameras. I stopped to offer some comments.

?Is he smart? one reporter asked? I replied ?They?re all smart. The United States has an incredible breadth of smart people. That?s why we are the most dominant country in history.?

I called a taxi to retrieve my car back at the airport. In the meantime, I strolled around this really cool museum, far and away the best of its kind in the world. It displayed a Babbage calculating engine, a WWII German ?Ultra? decoding machine, and Steve Wozniak?s first Apple I, which was built in a wooden case. I even saw the wooden slide rule with which I worked my way through college. ?Yikes,? I thought, I?m becoming an antique myself.

That night, I went home, donned my orange hazmat suit, and caught up on the new season of ?Breaking Bad.?

Jack Lew

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Jack-Lew.jpg 466 324 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-26 08:44:242013-08-26 08:44:24Riding With Treasury Secretary Jack Lew
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 23, 2013

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
August 23, 2013
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(HOW US JOB LOSSES WILL END),
?(FXI), (PIN), (EWY), (VNM),
(OPTIONS FOR THE BEGINNER)
(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
PowerShares India (PIN)
iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY)
Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-23 01:06:142013-08-23 01:06:14August 23, 2013
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