As part of my never ending campaign to get you to move more money into emerging markets, please take a look at the chart below from Goldman Sachs. It shows that the global middle class will rise from 1.8 billion today to 4 billion by 2040, with the overwhelming portion of the increase occurring in emerging markets.
The chart defines middle class as those earning between $6,000 and $30,000 a year. Adding 2.2 billion new consumers in these countries is creating immense new demand for all things and the commodities needed to produce them. This explains why these countries will account for 90% of GDP growth for at least the next ten years. It's all a great argument for using this dip to boost your presence in ETF's for emerging markets (EEM), China (FXI), Brazil (EWZ), and India (PIN).
Of course, you don't want to rush out and buy these things today. Emerging markets have been one of the worst performing asset classes of the year. But the selloff off is creating a once in a generation opportunity to get into the highest growing sector of the global economy on the cheap. I'll let you know when it is time to pull the trigger.
In the meantime, store this chart in your data base so when people ask why your portfolio is packed with Mandarin, Portuguese, and Hindi names, you can just whip it out.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/World-Middle-Class1.jpg441515Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-20 10:42:522013-06-20 10:42:52The Future of Consumer Spending?
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $209.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Empire-State-Building.jpg380253Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-18 09:35:022013-06-18 09:35:02Tuesday, July 2 New York Strategy Seminar
American oil imports from the Middle East are in free fall, down 35% in two years. They are quickly being replaced by tar sands imports from Canada, which are ballooning to 2 million barrels a day and at all time highs. American energy production is surging, thanks to new finds of natural gas showing up in everyone?s back yard, taking the country rapidly on its way to energy independence.
So why is the price of oil so damn high?
Everywhere you go to seek a shortage, you find a glut. Storage facilities at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub are practically overflowing. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is close to its 727 million barrel maximum capacity, or 36 days of national consumption.
Traditionally, the beginning of the summer driving season heralded higher crude prices. But gasoline consumption has been sliding for five years, thanks to the widespread adoption of hybrids and electric cars, and the improved mileage of conventional automobiles.
Even the Iranian election results auger poorly for the price of oil. The win by moderate Hassan Rohani, who boasts a doctorate from a Scottish university, promises to ease tensions with the United States over the nuclear issue.
More mysterious is the fact that the price of oil has been levitating in the face of the utter collapse of virtually every other commodity. Dr. Copper is handing out ?F?s? these days, the red metal down 30% this year. Iron ore is close to 50% down from its peak, to the deep distress of many Australians and their beleaguered dollar. Even the barbarous relic is off, gold falling 31% from its high. How come the Chinese economic slowdown is dragging down the price of everything except the one it needs the most?
The US decision to send weapons to Syria is, no doubt, positive for oil prices, but it is only worth a bump for a day. America has also announced joint military maneuvers with Jordan. How much do you want to bet that they accidentally leave their weapons behind?
Iran responded by sending 4,000 troops into the battered country to join Hezbollah from Lebanon, who are already there. Syria is turning into the Spanish Civil War of our age. But as it produces no oil, it shouldn?t materially impact prices.
Looking at speculative long positions held by hedge funds, I find them at multiyear highs. My guess is that investment demand, not consumption, accounts for up to $30 of the current $98 price of black gold.
Maybe we should just write all this off to another instance of prices moving the opposite direction of fundamentals, which has become so common this year. Or perhaps President Obama is right? Is it the work of evil speculators?
How To Get a Price Rise From a Global Glut?
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If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill.
?ANNUIT COEPTIS? means ?God has favored our undertaking.? ?NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM? translates into ?A new order has begun.? The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are ?1776.? The better known ?E PLURIBUS UNUM? is ?One nation from many people.?
The basic design for the cotton and linen currency with red and blue silk fibers, which has been in circulation since 1957, carries enough symbolism to drive conspiracy theorists to distraction. An all seeing eye? The darkened Western face of the pyramid? And of course, the number ?13? abounds.
Thank Freemason Benjamin Franklin for these cryptic symbols, and watch Nicholas Cage?s historical adventure movie ?National Treasure.? The balanced scales in the seal are certainly wishful thinking and a bit quaint if they refer to the Federal budget. Study the buck closely, because there are soon going to be a lot more of them around.
What Did You Really Mean, Ben?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Ben-Franklin.jpg274211Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-18 09:26:362013-06-18 09:26:36Decoding What?s in Your Pocket
Having trouble raising capital for your new hedge fund? Just list Warren Buffet as your ?Honorary Chairman.? That?s what California prison guard, Ottoniel Medrano, did. To help his marketing efforts, he also claimed that he had $4.8 billion in assets under management as well as massive real estate holdings in Asia.
With this scam, Medrano?s International Realty Holdings managed to raise $700,000 from individuals, which he promptly shipped to offshore bank accounts, before the Feds shut him down.
When you think you?ve heard everything, something like this pops up. Unbelievable. You would think that people have heard of ?due diligence? by now. It all brings back unpleasant memories of Bernie Madoff, now a permanent resident at the federal prison in Butner, North Carolina.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Bernie-Madoff.jpg282354Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-18 09:26:192013-06-18 09:26:19Scam of the Week
Featured Trade: (JULY 12 AMSTERDAM STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (AN ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS TAKE ON THE MARKETS), (DBA), (MOO), (PHO), (FIW). (BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT THE MONEY PRINTERS), (ON EXECUTING TRADE ALERTS)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
PowerShares Water Resources (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water Idx (FIW)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:07:382013-06-17 01:07:38June 17, 2013
Come join John Thomas for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Friday, July 12, 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $229.
The lunch will be held at a downtown Amsterdam hotel near Nieumarkt that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Amsterdam.jpg319479Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:06:162013-06-17 01:06:16July 12 Amsterdam Strategy Luncheon
I spent an evening with Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute and a winner of the coveted MacArthur Prize, for some long-term thinking about the environment and its investment implications.
Global warming is causing the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, glaciers in the Himalayas, and the Sierra snowpack. Water tables are falling and fossil aquifers are depleting. In the coming decades this will cause severe shortages of fresh water that could lead to crop failures in India and China, where one billion people depend on mountain runoff to irrigate crops, and even California, which delivers 80% of America?s vegetables.
The fresh water inputs in one person?s food and materials consumption works out to some 2,000 liters a day. That is no typo. As a result, all food prices will rise. To head off the greatest threat to the global food supply in human history, we need to cut carbon emissions by 80% before 2020, not 2050, as is being discussed in Copenhagen.
This can only be accomplished by redefining food and the environment as national security issue and launching a wartime mobilization. These difficult goals are achievable. Enough sunlight hits the earth in a day to power the global economy for a year. Texas alone has more than 20 gigawatts of wind power operating, under construction, or planned, enough to take 5% of our 250 coal fired power plants offline. Electricity demand could be cut by 90% purely through greater efficiencies, like switching from incandescent bulbs to LED?s.
Europe could get its entire 300 gigawatt power supply from solar plants in North Africa at current market prices. Cars powered by wind generated electricity would bring fuel costs down to an equivalent 75 cents a gallon, as electric motors are three times more efficient than internal combustion engines.
While Brown?s predictions are a little extreme for many, they mesh perfectly with my long term bullish cases for food and water plays. Take another look at the food sector ETF?s, (DBA) and (MOO), and the water space ETF?s (PHO) and (FIW).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Water-Fall.jpg249365Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:05:282013-06-17 01:05:28An Environmental Activist?s Take on the Markets
All of the high-grade paper used by the US Treasury to print money is bought by one firm, Crane & Co., which has been in the same family for seven generations.
Last year, the Feds printed 38 million banknotes worth $639 million. Although they have seen the recession cause the velocity of money to decline, recent reflationary efforts have spurred a big increase in demand for paper for $100 dollar bills. The US first issued paper money in 1861 to finance the Civil War, and Crane has been supplying them since 1879.
The average life of a dollar bill is 21 months. Who said no one was doing well in this economic slowdown? M1, or notes and coins in circulation, is already exploding. Is this a warning of an imminent jump in inflation? In the meantime, check out the new 3D $100 bill. It includes the latest anti-counterfeiting techniques, like a new blue security strip, tiny liberty bells that morph into the number 100, and ?United States of America? micro printed on Franklin?s jacket collar. The new bills should start entering circulation in September.
It?s ironic that the balanced scales, a symbolic reference to the founding fathers? commitment to maintaining a balanced budget, are still on the new Benjamin. Old Ben must be turning over in his grave.
Out With the Old
In With the New
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-17 01:04:062013-06-17 01:04:06Business is Booming at the Money Printers
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