My current scenario for global equities has them selling off over the summer, then a rebounding led by emerging markets starting sometime in the fall. In that case, you want to start building short lists of high growth countries to pile into, once the turn comes.
I would be including Columbia on any such list. It enjoys that sweet spot of being an oil exporting emerging country whose shipments hit an all-time high of 884,000 barrels a day, about half the quantity that Libya once shipped. The quality of the government has improved dramatically over the last decade. It is a narco state no more, although public and investors? perceptions lag deeply. The country has seen upgrades by leading credit agencies. Billionaire Carlos Slim, the world?s richest man, has recently been seen as a major investor.
The country also enjoys one of the world?s most favorable demographic pyramids. A young, upwardly mobile workforce is producing a rising tide of consumers and a burgeoning middle class, while expensive seniors requiring social services and medical care are few and far between.
Columbia was the world?s best performing equity market in 2010, bringing in gains of over 100%. That was how the country ETF (GXG) performed. Is history about to repeat itself?
Like most emerging stock markets this year (EEM), Columbia has been beaten like a red headed step child. That makes it a prime target for a rotation, should another leg to the ?RISK ON? market develop later in the year, as I expect. They also make great coffee. Just ask Juan Valdez.
Juan Valdez is Setting Up for a Buy
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Featured Trade: (MAY 1 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (OLD TECH?S BIG COMEBACK), (AAPL), (MSFT), (INTC), (HPQ), (XLK), (AMAT), (GET READY FOR YOUR NEXT BIG TAX HIT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Intel Corporation (INTC)
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)
Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
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Apple blew away the bears today with the issuance of $17 billion in bonds, the largest such corporate debt issue in history. Spread over two, five, ten, and 30 years, the deal was oversubscribed by more than 3:1, with $40 billion in demand left unfilled.
Foreign investors took down a major part of the deal, which explains Deutsche Bank?s senior role in the syndicate. The yield on the ten-year bonds came in at 2.40%, a mere 70 basis points over equivalent US Treasury paper.
The mega deal, dubbed ?iBonds? by traders, underlies the tremendous shortage of high-grade fixed income securities worldwide. Since 2007, the amount of double ?A? or better rated paper has declined by 60%, thanks to widespread downgrades inspired by the newfound religion of the ratings agencies.
As I never tire of pointing out at my strategy luncheons and lectures, the principal sin of governments is not that they are borrowing too much money, but not enough. This has given us a global bond shortage that has taken returns to insanely low levels. Look no further than the ten-year yield of 1.68% in the US, 1.20 % in Germany, and a pitiful 0.60% in Japan.
The issue also highlights the sudden fascination of all things Apple since its better than expected calendar Q1 earnings report last week, with $43 billion in revenues spinning off $9.5 billion in profits. Since then, we learned that the richest man in Russia, Alisher Usmanov, soaked up some $100 million of stock close to the $392 bottom. This is a man who?s proven track record of market timing is uncanny.
It doesn?t require a lot of imagination to figure out what this deal is all about. With $145 billion in cash on the balance sheet, why borrow another $17 billion? The reality is that this is a way of repatriating, through the back door and tax-free, some of the estimated $100 billion in cash the company has parked in offshore bank accounts.
What will it do with the money? How about buying back $17 billion worth of stock? Buy borrowing at 2.4% and retiring 3.2% dividend stock, the yield pick up on the transaction comes to $136 million a year. That goes straight to the bottom line. The deal reminds me of the kind of financial engineering that dominated Japanese finance during the late 1980?s. When I was a director of Morgan Stanley, I signed many of these multi billion dollar deals as a co-manager.
It wasn?t just Apple that has returned from the grave, which saw its stock rise by 14% since last week?s two year low. Look at many of the old tech warhorses, like Microsoft (MSFT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), and Intel (INTC), which have blasted forth from long moribund levels in recent weeks.
Which raises an interesting possibility. What if the long predicted selloff in May does a no show? What if, instead of the usual 10%-25% swan dive, we only get the 2.5% that has been the pattern for 2013? The possibilities boggle the mind.
In that case where will the money flood into next? Stocks that have been going up like a rocket for the past eight months, or shares that have either fallen like a stone during this time, or barely budged? Stocks that are trading at double the market multiple, or at half the market multiple? Hmmmm. Let me think about this one.
There are two major categories of the latter, commodity related shares and technology ones. China is still slowing, placing a monkey on the back of most commodities related companies. So I vote for technology, which by the way, is the cheapest it has ever been on an earnings multiple basis.
In that case, the strength in old tech will develop into far more than a one-week wonder. It could provide the rocket fuel that will power the major indexes for the rest of the year. That would take the S&P 500 up to 1,700 where it can flaunt a glitzy earnings multiple of 17.
Don?t get too giddy. This is definitely a best-case scenario. But then lately, the best-case scenarios have been happening, thanks to the reflationary efforts of our friend, Ben Bernanke.
That would be fantastic news for Apple?s long-suffering shareholders. Now that its stock has clearly broken through the 50-day moving average on the upside, the eventual target of this leg could be as high as the 200-day moving average at $541. One can only hope.
Old Tech is Rising From the Dead
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No matter what anyone promises you today, this week, or this year, your taxes are going up. I don?t care if you are still licking your wounds from the January 1 payroll tax rise, or the federal tax hike for millionaires, which in my case took my rate up from 35% to 39.6%. At least the capital gains tax is still a steal at 20%.
At $1.3 trillion, the budget deficit is so enormous that bringing it into balance merely through spending cuts is a mathematical impossibility. Chopping funding for Planned Parenthood and National Public Radio just isn?t going to do it.
If you own your own home, work for a large company, save for your retirement, earn money from capital gains, and toss in a check when they pass the dish around at church every Sunday, you are the biggest beneficiary of the current tax system. Therefore, you are about to take a big hit. Check out the target list below, and the tax revenues the death of these tax breaks will raise:
$264 billion- Should those without health care subsidize those who receive it for free from their employers? This is the amount raised by taxing company provided health insurance as regular income. Think large banks and oil companies.
$100 billion- Should renters be subsidizing homeowners? Kiss that home mortgage interest deduction on loans under $1 million goodbye. Ditto for the real estate market as a whole. The more aggressive version of this has the ceiling on deductions dropping to $500,000.
$100 billion- End the tax deductibility of charitable contributions. Should those who don?t go to church subsidize those who do? Universities, churches, and political fund raising go begging.
$52 billion- Should those without savings subsidize those salting away money for retirement. This is the argument that will be made to end tax deductibility of 401k contributions.
$39 billion- Savings on taxes exempted by the step up in the cost bases for investments inherited by surviving spouses. She doesn?t need that McMansion anyway.
$36 billion- Tax capital gains as regular income. This won?t affect you if you never sell and let your heirs sort out the mess.
$31 billion- Stop special tax treatment of dividend incomes.
Please note that these most draconian measures only raise $586 billion a year, a mere 45% of last year?s deficit. Without raising tax rates, the remaining $714 billion will have to come from cutting Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Defense spending. In any case, I think it will be politically impossible to get any of these changes through the current congress. An energy tax and a national value added tax are also on the table.
None of these hikes would be necessary if the economy grew at a 4% real rate instead of 3%. This is why tax rates in emerging countries are so low. But I believe that America?s long-term growth rate is falling, not rising, and that our budget problems are going to get worse, not better. What happens if interest rates rise for the world?s largest borrower? Oops.
Of course, we could adopt Mary Meeker?s suggestion in her paper on USA, Inc. and eliminate all deductions, raising about $1 trillion a year. That would involve shrinking the Internal Revenue Code from the current 71,000 pages to a single page, and moving to a flat tax system. The mass unemployment of one million CPA?s and 106,000 internal revenue agents alone would be worth the price.
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Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT SERVICE POSTS TWO YEAR 90% PROFIT), (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (IT?S OFFICIAL: THERE?S NOTHING TO DO), ?(SPY), (TLT), (JNK), (DINNER WITH ELIOT SPITZER)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK)
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The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 90.6% profit since the inception of the service 30 months ago. That compares to a modest 21% return for the Dow average during the same period. This raises the average annualized return for the service to 36.2%, elevating it to the absolute apex of hedge fund ranks.
My bet that the stock markets would continue to grind up to new all time highs in the face of complete disbelief and multiple international shocks paid off big time, as I continued to initiate new long positions in the S&P. After steering readers away from gold (GLD) all year, I then caught the bottom and rode a $74 rally on the way back up. Every short position in the yen has been a money maker. I even managed to cover a brief short in the Treasury bond market for a small profit.
Trade Alerts that I wrote up, but never sent, worked. That?s because I have been 100% invested for the entire year in long stock/short positions. However, followers of my biweekly strategy webinars caught my drift and benefited from the thinking, and many did these trades on their own. These included shorts in the Treasury bond market, (TLT), the Euro (FXE), (EUO), and the British pound (FXB).
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don?t do. I have been able to dodge the bullets that have been killing off other hedge funds, including those in (USO) and commodities (CORN), (CU). The average hedge fund is up only 4% in 2013, as their short positions in the lowest quality companies have easily outpaced their longs on the upside.
All told, the last 35 of the 42 trade alerts issued by the Trade Alert Service in 2013 were profitable, a success rate of 83%. The year-to-date profit stands at a stunning 35.5%.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011 and 14.87% in 2012. The service includes my Trade Alert Service, daily newsletter, real-time trading portfolio, an enormous trading idea database, and live biweekly strategy webinars. To subscribe, please go to my website at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, find the ?Global Trading Dispatch? box on the right, and click on the lime green ?SUBSCRIBE NOW? button.
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Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I will also explain how I have been able to deliver a blowout 40% return since the November, 2012 market bottom. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $179.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. The PowerPoint presentation will be emailed to you three days before the event.
The lunch will be held at a major Las Vegas hotel on the Strip, the details will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. Please make your own hotel reservations, as business there is booming.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
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You may have noticed that I am a man who is never short of words. I also rarely am for wont of things to do.
This is one of those times.
Every morning, I drag myself out of bed early, throw cold water on my face, and drag my sorry ass to my computers, where I compile lists of the positives and negatives facing the markets. Here is this morning?s list:
Negatives
*Almost all macro data has turned negative
*Economic growth is weak at 2.5%
*Q2 growth is decelerating
*Corporate earnings growth is weak
*Bonds are going up with stocks Volume spikes on down days Buying focused on defensives Buying in a narrowing number of names Top of 13 year channel Commodities are crashing everywhere Eve of seasonal weakness for 6 months
The sequester is slowly eating into our economy
The bottom line here is that even a first year intern would be out of his mind to buy stocks now.
Positives
The net net here is that you would be crazy not to pour every penny you had into stocks now. And therein lies the problem.
It would be easy to say that the two lists balance each other out. The reality is that the edge is in favor of the positives, and that the outlook for risk assets is still a friendly one, just. Some $170 billion a month is a lot of money, and buys truckloads of paper, like stocks and bonds. That means stock prices will probably go up before they go down.
This is the dilemma. Just as the markets was becoming exhausted of Ben Bernanke?s QE3, now eight months old, and stocks are hitting the top of a 13 year channel in the (SPY), we got an entire new round of quantitative easing from Japan. That was the outcome of ?Abenomics,? the last ditch, throw in the kitchen sink effort by the Japanese government to pull the country?s economy out of a death spiral.
The real shocker here is how much of the Japanese QE is diverting into foreign markets. Japanese institutions have been using the government buying to unload their domestic positions and buy the American equivalents. Japanese bond funds have begun soaking up US debt instruments (TLT), (JNK) on a large scale, and equity players have been piling into US high dividend stocks. They have also been flooding into high yielding instruments of any other description, including European sovereign debt, creating the mother of all rallies there.
So the choice here is very simple. Buy at the top of the biggest stock market rally in history, or do nothing at all. Sitting on top of a humongous 35.6% gain this year, and 46% off of the November bottom, I am inclined to do the latter.
I kind of like being up 35.6% on the year. I like posting a 26.6% gain less. I positively dislike being up only 16.6%, and I despise a mere 6.6% return, where most hedge funds now live. I think I?ll vote for sitting on my hands.
It is not like I?m really going to do nothing. But my standards for opening a new trade just got a lot tougher. I am going to wait for more extreme moves up before going short, bigger selloffs ahead of buying, and doing so with smaller sized positions when I do. I?ll be quicker on the draw when it comes to taking profits or stopping out. Better to wait for the market to come to me, than try and jump on a moving train.
To paraphrase an old expression from Navy flight school, it is better to be flat, wishing you had a position, than having a position and wishing you were flat.
Maybe It?s Better to Be Flat
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I couldn?t for the life of me figure out why New York?s former governor and federal prosecutor, Eliot Spitzer, wanted to invite me to dinner. He wasn?t flogging a book or promoting a movie, and he certainly wasn?t running for office again. But I went anyway, thinking perhaps the notorious ?Client No. 9? might let me peek at his famous black book.
Eliot, who showed up wearing a classic New York blue pin striped suit that seems oddly out of place in San Francisco, is currently running his family?s commercial real estate business.
He told me the advantages that the US enjoyed over the rest of the world in 1945, such as a monopoly in skilled labor, are now long gone. The driver of the world economy has switched from America to Asia in the nineties.
As a result, income distribution here has morphed from a bell shaped curve to a barbell, with both the wealthy and the poor increasing in numbers, squeezing the middle class. The financial crisis compressed 30 years of change into two, taking us from libertarian Ayn Rand to pay czar Ken Feinberg in one giant leap.
Having cut his teeth prosecuting the Gambino crime family in the eighties, Eliot had some views on the need for more regulation. We only need to enforce the laws on the books, not pass new ones. The ?white collarization? of organized crime has been a secular trend since the sixties. He said the ethical lapses in the run up to the crash were best characterized by a quote from Merrill Lynch?s Jack Robins; ?What used to be a conflict of interest is now a synergy.?
AIG getting 100 cents on the dollar from the federal government was the greatest scam in history. The US did not extract a high enough price from top paid executives and shareholders of financial institutions for failure, and should have let more firms go under. As for his own scandal in 2008, Eliot admitted that he failed, that his flaws were made publicly apparent, and that other politicians should be smarter than he was.
Although Eliot had some good ideas, I was still puzzled over what this was all about as I ploughed through my cr?me brulee. Perhaps the governor has a pathological need to be in front of the spotlight, even at the risk of flaming out. And no luck with the black book.
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Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I will also explain how I have been able to deliver a blowout 40% return since the November, 2012 market bottom. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $179.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. The PowerPoint presentation will be emailed to you three days before the event.
The lunch will be held at a major Las Vegas hotel on the Strip, the details will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. Please make your own hotel reservations, as business there is booming.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
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