Newsletter Archives - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Looking for Shorting Opportunities Among the Homebuilders

As we continue flirting with a final top in equities for the year, I am stepping up my search for the best ways to participate on the downside. At the very top of the list are the homebuilders, one of the top performing sectors since the October, 2011 bottom. The performance of individual names has been absolutely blistering, with Pulte Homes (PHM) clocking a 245% move to the upside, beating the (SPX) by 210%.

You do not need to engage in any sophisticated financial analysis to see how expensive this group is. Spend a day visiting open houses put on by the big companies, like Pulte Homes (PHM), KB Homes (KBH), Ryland Group (RYL), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Lennar (LEN), as I did yesterday. Then scan the real estate pages of your hometown newspaper with a calculator in hand. You will quickly find that new homes are selling for double the cost of existing homes on a dollar per square foot basis.

This is a lot to pay for that black granite kitchen counter, built in vacuum system, flashy gas barbeque in the back yard, and solar panels on the roof. You may also notice that the homes are shoehorned so tightly on to their plots that you will become too familiar with the intimate details of the lives of your prospective neighbors. In fact, new homes are trading at the biggest premium over used in history.

I am loathe to bet against those lucky ones selling to the 1%, or anyone who earns close to them, whose wealth and spending power are expanding exponentially as I write this. That knocks out Lennar (LEN) and Toll Brothers (TOL). I am very happy to short stocks of companies saddled with selling on an increasingly impoverished 99%.

That trains my sites over to Pulte Homes (PHM) and KB Homes (KBH), the old Kaufman & Broad. (KBH) has already fallen 38% off of a poor earnings report. At least Eli Broad had the decency to give away most of his money after selling out at the market top. The Los Angeles art world is all the richer for it. That leaves Pulte (PHM) as the next overripe piece of fruit to fall.

I know that many of you have been getting calls from real estate brokers insisting that the bottom is in and prices are on their way up. I get the same calls from stock brokers too. Here are the reasons for you to let those calls go straight to voicemail.

There is still a huge demographic headwind, as 80 million baby boomers
try to sell houses to 65 million Gen Xer?s, who earn half as much money. Don?t plan on selling your home to your kids, especially if they are still living rent free in the basement. There are six million homes currently late on their payments, in default, or in foreclosure, and an additional shadow inventory of 15 million units. Access to credit is still severely impaired to everyone, except, you guessed it, the 1%.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which supply 95% of all the home mortgages in the US, are still in receivership, and are in desperate need of $100 billion in new capital each. Good luck getting that out of Washington, which is likely to be gridlocked for at least another five years, and maybe more.

The home mortgage deduction is a big target in any revamp of the tax system, which would immediately yield $250 billion in new revenues for the government. How do you think that will impact home process?

There are undeniable signs of life in best prime markets, where the pent up demand can be substantial. Here in the San Francisco Bay area you are seeing bidding wars for anything that is commuting distance from Apple, Google, and Facebook, or the rest of the booming tech world. Real estate is more local now than it ever has been.

The best case scenario for home prices is that we continue bumping along a bottom for as long as ten more years, when the demographic picture shifts from a huge headwind to a major tailwind. The worst case is that this is just another bear market rally and that we have another 20% on the downside.

Show me the Rally

Yes, But Does It Have Solar?

Payroll Bombshell Give Market Technicians Heart Attack

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I am sitting here on Easter weekend sifting through pages and pages from the various technical programs I follow warning that the roof is about to cave in on the stock market. Friday?s nonfarm payroll bombshell was dropped right at a key, make or break level for the S&P 500 and the Dow Average. Hold here, and we grind to a marginal new high in weeks. Fail, and it is all over this year but for the crying.

The action in the futures market immediately after the release of the dismal numbers showed that the outcome of this contest has already been decided. S&P 500 futures gapped down from plus 4 points to down 15 points in minutes. The Dow saw a net swing of a gut churning 170 points. Ten year Treasury yields gapped down from 2.22% to 2.08%. The safe haven dollar soared against the euro. It was all, yet again, another harsh lesson on why you don?t take big positions before monthly nonfarm payroll figures, and why you should never listen to the ?experts?.

I couldn?t be more amused watching analysts? reactions to the figures on TV, who had been forecast as high as 250,000 and noticeably blanched when the flash hit the screen. In fact, this is one of the biggest head fakes that I have seen in sometime. The Thursday weekly jobless claims hit a four year low only the day before, pointing followers to the exact opposite direction. So did Canadian job gains, which hit a 30 year high for the month. Extrapolate that to the US and we should have seen of blistering gain of 750,000, not the feeble 120,000 we got.

A closer examination of the numbers offered little solace. The headline unemployment rate fell from 8.3% to 8.2%, but only because there are fewer job seekers. Manufacturing showed the biggest gain, +37,000, followed by food and drinking services, +37,000, professional and business services +31,000, and health care, +26,000. The big hit was taken by retail, -34,000. There are 12.7 million total unemployed, and the broader U-6 unemployment rate dropped from 14.9% to 14.5%.

It looks like the good winter weather bump we saw in February disappeared after possibly pulling as many as 50,000 jobs forward from the spring, generating the great payroll number for the previous month. That explains why the February correction in the market I had been expected never showed.

These unwelcome developments call into question the survival of the entire 35% bull move. It will be very interesting to see how many traders flip to sell every rally mode this week after spending the last six months buying every dip. Watch Apple. It will be key. So will the raft of data releases about the Chinese economy, which will be tricking out every night this week.

I was hoping for a healthy payroll number on Friday to give us a nice two day rally which I could use to reestablish my short positions. At least I covered my yen short, which is also bouncing hard. Now I have to decide if I want to sell into the dip. Welcome to show business.

The Payroll Figures Did Not Come in as Expected

Cross Asset Class Analysis Warned ?RISK OFF? Was Coming

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Last week saw a dramatic deterioration in the economic data that has been the foundation of the Great Bull Market of 2012.

First, we read minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting suggesting that QE3 has been put on a back burner. Then the Department of Labor?s Friday nonfarm payroll report poured gasoline on the fire, coming in at 120,000, versus an expected 210,000. Until this week, the best you could say about the data flow was that it was mixed. Now it is decidedly negative.

Whenever we see sea change events like this bunch up over a short time period, I like to show readers my cross asset class review, which I conduct on a daily basis. This discipline is great at showing which securities are trading in line with the rest of the world, and which ones aren?t. And guess what is looking outrageously expensive right now?

The charts show that trouble has in fact brewing for a few months. Asset classes have been rolling over like a line of dominoes. This is the way bull markets always end, and this time should be no different.

The Australian dollar (FXA) saw the weakness coming first, which peaked on April 6.

The Australian stock market (EWA) followed, peaking on February 28.

Copper (CU) warned that trouble was coming, peaking on February 12.

Then Gold (GLD) faded on April 12.

And Silver (SLV) on February 28.

Bonds never bought the ?RISK ON? on scenario. The ten year Treasury ETF (IEF) is down less than three points from its 2011 peak, instead of the 15 points we should have gotten if the economy had truly entered a sustainable stage in the recovery.

Only equities (SPX) didn?t see ?RISK OFF? coming

Because it was all about Apple (AAPL), which added $225 billion in new market capitalization this year. That amounts to creating the third largest company from scratch, right after Exxon (XOM).

The final message of all of these charts is that equities alone have been powering up for months while every other asset class in the world has been dying a slow death. Experience shows that this only ends in tears for equity holders. I?ll let you adjust your own positions accordingly.

Has Gold Had It?

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With the Federal Reserve signaling yesterday that QE3 is off the table, many traders are now betting that the barbarous relic is about to take a prolonged vacation.

Without a dividend or an interest yield in a world desperate for cash flow, the yellow metal suddenly doesn?t have so much to offer. Take away the fear of inflation that our deflationary reality assures, and gold is suddenly left wanting, along with all other hard assets. Uncle Buck becomes the big man on campus.

For the first time in many years, gold is ranking high on the list of preferred hedge fund shorts. The US Treasury?s sale of America eagle one ounce gold coins is down 70% from last year and is now plumbing a four year low. Open interest in the gold futures market has hit a 2 ? year low, indicating that capital is fleeing the market. This is usually what happens before prices die.

Physical markets in Asia, long a bulwark in the gold bull case, are suffering from declining volumes. India, long the world?s largest buyer of physical gold, just doubled import taxes, causing widespread strikes among jewelers.

Industry experts have been warning me for some time that the scrapage rate was soaring, thanks to retail gold buying shops popping up on almost every other street corner, and it was just a matter of time before this would have a major dampening effect on prices.? Remember those stories about gold coin vending machines popping up around the world? You don?t hear those anymore.

Indeed, the gold miners have been signaling for some time that the gold bugs were about to suffer a healthy dose of insecticide. Look no further than the chart for Barrack Gold (ABX), the world largest producer of the yellow metal, and a woeful underperformer compared to its benchmark product. Other miners have fared far worse.

Take speculation about future gold price appreciation away, and all of a sudden miners don?t have such a great business model. The problem is that they are not making gold anymore. Companies are having to dig deeper in more dangerous and inaccessible parts of the world, and pay bigger bribes to get there. (ABX) isn?t opening a new mines at 15,000 feet in the Andes because their like the fresh air and the scenery. Freezing water, and essential ingredient in the mining process, has become a major problem.

There is the added dilemma that the inventory sitting in the back of the shop is now falling in value instead of increasing. Barrack has made a big deal about abandoning its gold hedging strategy. That worked great for the past three years, but may not do as well going forward.

Cost inflation suffered by mining companies is the highest in the industrial world, and is now running at about a 20% annual rate, be it for labor, heavy equipment, infrastructure development, royalty fees, and so on. The tires for those giant trucks used in mining now cost $100,000 each and have a three year waiting list. The secondary market for them is booming.

It doesn?t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the technical picture for gold has been rapidly deteriorating. Gold has suffered an 8% sell off since the end of February, and is now up only 6% in 2012, underperforming most other asset classes. Look at the chart below, and the most charitable thing you can say is that with are approaching the bottom end of a $1,500-$1,925 range. But look at the longer term charts and it is clear that we have just witnessed a head and shoulders formation that has dramatically failed.

The chip shot on the downside for gold here is $1,500. More aggressive traders may want to reach for $1,450. Bring a double dip scare for the economy into the picture, which I expect to see this summer, and $1,100 is a possibility. If you get a real stock market crash in 2013, as many analysts are predicting, and you?ll get another chance to buy at $750.

Use the periodic short term bursts of buying, that are increasingly being seen by the trading community as a contrarian trade, as a great chance to leg into short dated puts on the SPDR Gold Trust Shares ETF (GLD).

Long term, I still like gold and expect it to hit the old inflation adjusted high of $2,300 during the next hard asset buying binge. But remember also that long term, we are all dead.

Watch Out for Gold?s Fatal Attraction

If You Sell in May and Go Away, What to do in April?

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That is the conundrum facing traders, investors, and individuals as we enter the new quarter. For some hedge fund managers, Q1, 2012 was clearly the quarter from hell.

I have been in the market for four decades, long enough to collect an encyclopedia worth of words of wisdom. One of my favorites has always been ?Sell in May and Go? away. On close inspection you?ll find there is more than a modicum of truth is this time worn expression.

Refer to your handy Stock Traders Almanac and you?ll find that for the last 50 years the index yielded a paltry 1% return from May to October. From November to April it brought in a far healthier 7% return.

This explains why you find me with my shoulder to the grindstone from during the winter, and jetting about from Baden Baden to Monte Carlo and Zermatt in the summers. Take away the holidays and this is really a four month a year job.

My friends at StockCharts.com put together the data from the last ten years, and the conclusions on the chart below are pretty undeniable. They have marked every May with a red arrow and Novembers with green arrows.

What is unusual this year is that we are going into the traditional May peak on top of a prodigious 12 % gain in the S&P 500, one of the sturdiest moves in history. History also shows that the bigger the move going into the April peak, the more savage the correction that follows. What do they say in golf? Fore?

Being a long time student of the American, and indeed, the world economy, I have long had a theory behind the regularity of this cycle. It?s enough to base a pagan religion around, like the once practicing Druids at Stonehenge.

Up until the 1920?s, we had an overwhelmingly agricultural economy. Farmers were always at maximum financial distress in the fall, when their outlays for seed, fertilizer, and labor were at a maximum, but they had yet to earn any income from the sale of their crops. So they had to all borrow at once, placing a large call on the financial system as a whole. This is why we have seen so many stock market crashes in October. Once the system swallows this lump, its nothing but green lights for six months.

Once the cycle was set and easily identifiable by low end computer algorithms, the trend became a self fulfilling prophesy. Yes, it may be disturbing to learn that we ardent stock market practitioners may in fact be the high priests of a strange set of beliefs. But hey, some people will do anything to outperform the market.

Are the Bull?s Days Numbered?

Double Dipping on the Yen

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You know how I love second helpings, especially when the sushi bar is involved. I especially like unagi, or cooked eel, which is said to be an oriental aphrodisiac.

I am going to take advantage of Japan?s fiscal year end book closing on March 30 to reenter my short position of the Japanese yen. This is the one time a year when Japanese corporations suddenly repatriate yen back to Japan to beef up the cash on their books for their annual reports. Every year, this creates a quick boost to the yen against the US dollar which fades away in the following weeks like so much smoke.

Like everything else this year, the yen has had a straight line move since I put out my last call to sell the yen at the end of January. So while I made a nice profit on the first trade, I was never given another chance to reenter on the way down. Now I have that opportunity.

Since the yen bottomed on March 21, it has given back 25% of the move. Sure, I would prefer to get back in on the traditional one third pull back. But there are so few attractive trading opportunities out there right now that I am happy to jump the gun. If the yen strengthens more from here I will simply double up the position. This is a trade that I?ll be happy to live with for a while.

I have hammered away at the structural weakness of the Japanese economy ad nauseum for the past year. The one liner is that buyers of the country?s 1% yielding ten year bonds are dying off in droves, it has the world?s worst debt to GDP ratio, and labors under an Armageddon like demographic burden. It doesn?t help that they haven?t invested anything new since Godzilla ate the big screen. Sony (SNE) should have become Apple (AAPL). For those who wish to undertake a refresher course, please read the research pieces listed below:

* ?Momentum is Building for the Yen Shorts? on March 26 at http://madhedgefundradio.com/momentum-is-building-for-the-yen-shorts/

*? ?Nikkei Shows the Yen Move is Real? on February 20 at http://madhedgefundradio.com/nikkei-shows-the-yen-move-is-real/

*? ?Global Trading Dispatch Hits 64%, 11 Day Home Run on Yen Short? on February 13 at
http://madhedgefundradio.com/global-trading-dispatch-hits-64-11-day-home-run-on-yen-short/

*? ?Rumblings in Tokyo? on February 5 at http://madhedgefundradio.com/rumblings-in-tokyo/

*? ?Is This the Chink in Japan?s Armor?? on January 29 at http://madhedgefundradio.com/is-this-the-chink-in-japans-armor/

My preferred instrument here is the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY) , where I will be buying the June, 2012 puts. At the very least, the (FXY) should make it back down to $117 in the near future, a price we visited just a week ago, which should give you a quickie 70%? return on the June $120 puts.

For those who are unwilling or unable to play in the options space, you can invest in the ProShares Ultra Yen Short ETF (YCS), a 2X leveraged bet that the yen falls against the dollar.

Do I hear Any Bids?

Japan?s Last Good Invention

Where to Play From the Short Side

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This time I am going to start with the fundamental argument first, then follow up with the Trade Alert.

We are getting perilously close to a substantial pull back in global risk assets. While this has already started in commodities, the ags, oil, copper, and precious metals, we have yet to see the whites of their eyes in equities. I believe at these levels stocks are the planet?s most overvalued assets, at least on a short term trading basis. So I have begun more aggressively searching for plays that would benefit from substantial moves southward.

My personal preference is to gain downside exposure on small capitalization stocks. You can achieve this through buying put options on the Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM).

You have several things going for you in falling markets with this ETF. Small stocks are illiquid and therefore suffer the biggest pullback during market corrections. If Heaven forbid, double dip fears return this summer, small caps will fall the farthest and the fastest. They are most dependent on outside financing which rapidly dries up during times of economic distress.

You can see this clearly during last year?s summer swoon. The last time we thought the world was going to end, the (SPX) fell by 20% while the (IWM) plunged by 29.5%. This means that small cap stocks are likely to deliver 150% of the downside compared to big cap stocks. Making money then with shorts in the (IWM) was like shooting fish in a barrel.

You see this on the upside as well. Since the October, 2011 lows, the (SPX) leapt by 30% compared to a much more virile 38% move by (IWM). The (IWM) really does present the scenario where the smaller (or higher) they are, the harder they fall.

If you go into the options market you get this extra volatility at a discount. June at-the-money puts for the (SPY) carry an implied volatility of 15%, compared to 20% for the (IWM) puts. That means you get 50% more anticipated movement in the index for a premium of only 33%.

For those who wish to avoid options, you can buy the inverse ETF on the sector, the (RWM). But the liquidity for this instrument is a mere shadow of its upside cousin, the (IWM). You are better off shorting the (IWM) than buying the (RWM).

These Look Pretty Interesting

The Death of the Mutual Fund

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ETF's are much more attractive than mutual fund competitors, with their notoriously bloated expenses and spendthrift marketing costs. You can't miss those glitzy, overproduced, big budget ads on TV for a multitude of mutual fund families. You know, the ones with the senior couple holding hands walking down the beach into the sunset, the raging bulls, etc? You are the sucker who is paying for these. Sometimes I confuse them for Viagra commercials.

I once did a comprehensive audit on a mutual fund, and a blacker hole you never saw. There were so many conflicts of interest it would have done Bernie Madoff proud. Any trainee assistant trader can tell you that more than 90% of all mutual fund managers reliably underperform the indexes, some grotesquely so. Published performance is bogus, they show a huge survivor bias, not including the hundreds of mutual funds that close each year. And there's always that surprise tax bill at the end of the year.

If there was ever an industry crying out for a fundamental restructuring, consolidation, price competition, and ultimately a whopping great downsizing, it is the US mutual fund industry. ETF's may be the accelerant that ignited this epochal sea change, with the number of mutual funds recently having shrunk from 10,000 to 8,000. It's still early days, with ETF's only accounting for 5-6% of trading volume, even though they have been around for a decade.

The Mutual Fund's Days Are Numbered

Coal?s Hatchet Job on Natural Gas

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After my year in the White House Press Corps, I vowed never to return, and took a really long shower, hoping to scrub every last spec of prejudice, self-interest, and institutionalized dishonesty off of my battered carcass. But sometimes I see some maneuvering that is so unprincipled, crooked, and against the national interest that I am unable to restrain my fingers from the keyboard.

I?m talking about the absolutely merciless hatchet job the coal producers are inflicting on the natural gas industry. Coal today accounts for 50% of America?s 3.7 trillion kilowatts in annual power production. Chesapeake Energy?s (CHK) Aubrey McClendon says correctly that if we just shut down aging conventional power plants over 35 years old, and replace them with modern gas fired plants, the US would achieve one third of its ambitious 2020 carbon reduction goals.

The share of relatively clean burning natural gas of the national power load would pop up from the current 23% to 50%. Even the Sierra Club says this is the fastest and cheapest way to make a serious dent in greenhouse gas emissions. So what do we get?

The press has recently been flooded with reports of widespread well poisonings and forest destruction caused by the fracking processes that recently discovered a new 100 year supply of ultra-cheap CH4. The YouTube images of flames shooting out of a kitchen faucet are well known. But MIT did a study investigating over 50 of these claims and every one was found to be due to inexperienced subcontractor incompetence, not the technology itself. The demand for these wells is so great that it is sucking in neophytes into bidding for contracts, whether they know how to do it or not.

While the coal industry has had 200 years to build a formidable lobby in Washington, the gas industry is just a beginner, their only public champions being McClendon and T. Boone Pickens. Every attempt they have made to get a bill through congress to speed up natural gas conversion has been blocked not by environmentalists, but other conflicted energy interests.

Memories in Washington are long, and Obama & Co. recall all too clearly that this was the pair that financed the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth that torpedoed Democrat John Kerry?s 2004 presidential campaign. What goes around comes around.

This will be unhappy news for the 23,000 the American Lung Association expects coal emissions to kill this year. Can?t the coal industry be happy selling everything they rip out of the ground to China?

There! I?ve had my say. Now I?m going to go have another long shower.

Time to Take That Shower

The Final Word on the Volatility Index

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The inside story on the collapse of volatility is now out, and as a result, managers are reviewing the harsh lessons learned and tweaking their strategies. It highlights the dangers of buying securities without reading the prospectus and understanding what is under the hood.

As investors piled into stocks in February, they also bought downside protection in the form of the Velocity Shares Daily 2X VIX Short Term ETN (TVIX). For reasons that are yet to be explained, the issuer, Credit Suisse, arbitrarily decided to quit issuing new shares, effectively turning this vehicle into a closed end fund. Money poured in anyway, driving the price up to a 100% premium over the intrinsic value of the fund.

Then, out of the blue, Credit Suisse reversed its decision and decided to issue new shares after all last week. This could mean only one thing to the professional volatility trading community, which jumped on the (TVIX) with both feet. They took the ETF down a stunning 65% in a week, all the way down to a 20% discount to intrinsic value. During the same time, the (VXX) fell by 25%, while the (VIX) was up 10%. Now that?s a tracking error with a turbocharger!

It now appears that there was some advanced knowledge about the reissuance of shares, and the SEC is almost certain to make inquiries. Those who had hoped for downside protection in the stock market got a slap in the face instead. To say the least, confidence in the financial system has not been advanced.

To make matters worse, a major hedge fund based in Chicago has a gigantic position in the (TVIX) with a ?put tree?. This involved buying one $21 put and selling short one $18 put and three $17 puts. Below $17 they were 300% long the (TVIX). When the ETF broke that level, the sushi hit the fan, triggering panic selling of all (VIX) products at any price, including the unrelated (VXX). I can?t tell you who it is without risking litigation. But with the quarter end upon us, their investors will find out soon enough. Watch the newspapers to find out whom.

The debacle has sent analysts scurrying to find other ETF?s that may be trading at premiums to their underlying. Here are the top three:

Platinum (PGM) 27%
Municipal bonds (GMMG) 14%
China small cap (PEK) 6%

The premium in the (UNG) frequently goes as high as 50% and results from the contango in the futures market, where far month contracts are trading at big premiums to the front month. That makes it a great shorting vehicle in falling markets, because the ETF always falls faster than the underlying. I have drunk at this well many times.

What happens from here? My guess is now that managers see that their downside protection is a sham, they won?t want to play. That could translate into stock selling, now that holders understand that these positions involved more risk than they realized.

In the meantime, if you plan on dabbling in the $1.4 trillion 1,400 issue ETF market, it may prove wise to check out the intrinsic value of any ETF before you buy it. You can do this easily by going to Yahoo Finance and adding .iv to any ticker symbol. So while the (TVIX) intrinsic value this second is at $7.51, the current market is at $7.96, a 6% premium. If you value your wealth, you might well get familiar with this exercise.

Trading Volatility Isn?t Always So Fun