While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
April 27, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HEARD ON THE ROAD PART II),
(CONTANGO IN THE (UVXY) EXPLAINED ONE MORE TIME),
(UVXY), (VIX), (VXX), (SPY),
(TESTIMONIAL)
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
New York City was as alive as I have ever seen it. Maybe it was because it was the beginning of spring and the residents were venturing outdoors for the first time this year, their eyes blinking in the bright sunlight.
Old neighborhoods are gentrifying at an incredible rate. At this pace there won?t be any poor people left in Manhattan. I couldn?t get into the Tenement Museum because the tickets were sold out. That?s where tenements belong, in museums.
Instead of my usual ten-mile hike around the Tahoe Rim Trail, or up Berkeley?s Grizzly Peak, I hoofed it about Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, and then back over the Brooklyn Bridge.
It was interesting to notice that the French custom of cementing a long term relationship by placing a lock on a public fence has spread to the Brooklyn riverside park. All culture is going global.
I made my ritual lunch stop at Katz?s Deli, the oldest such establishment in the country, and the location of the cult film, ?Where Harry Met Sally?. Nobody makes a better pastrami on rye, even if you have to wait in line a half hour to get one.

On my day off I made the long trek all the way up to visit the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Presidential Library and the Hyde Park Estate where he lived.
It is the best of the presidential libraries I?ve visited. In it I saw a letter from Albert Einstein urging him to start a nuclear program with the goal of building a massive bomb, dated August, 1939, just a month before WWII started.
I also saw a note handwritten by FDR to the Joint Chiefs of Staff ordering them to hold Guadalcanal ?at all cost.? Both my Dad and my Uncle Mitch were fighting on that hellish South Pacific island at the time.

On the way home I stopped at the Vanderbilt mansion, the apex of Gilded Age consumption. Incredibly, there is no Vanderbilt fortune today, once one of the largest in the country. It was all spent.
The only money the Vanderbilt?s now have, such as Gloria and her son CNN reporter Anderson Cooper, they earned themselves.
On the flight to Chicago I sat next to an executive recruiter whose colleague specialized in the oil business. There is a total industry cleanout going on. CEO?s who were complete bastards two years ago have come back begging for jobs. Such is the price of hubris.
We spent much of my Chicago Global Strategy Luncheon discussing the future of the US commercial real estate business with a very intelligent group of people. I think it is one of the safest bets around, and will be a huge winner if my deflationary century scenario unfolds. Where else can you get double-digit returns and still take the paper home to meet your mother?
The big gossip in the Windy City was Hillary Clinton?s aggressive recruitment of a transition team, even though the election was still six months off. Apparently they want to hit the ground running.
At he University Club I listened in on the table next to me as a young African American women was interviewed and answered every question perfectly. She was whip smart.
Having traveled around the United States for a half century, I have noticed a few changes.
The regional accents are dying out, but the food is getting better. The cities have grown enormously, both upward and outward. Some 50 years of mostly nonstop prosperity accomplishes quite a lot.
We are all becoming much more diverse and educated, and far more demanding consumers. Unfortunately, we are a lot bigger too, creating the root of all our health care problems.
The star of the trip was the Uber ride sharing app. In a week I jumped in and out of cars 40 times, each vehicle clean and efficient. No hassles about payment, change, directions, or receipts. Maybe the company really is worth $65 billion.
As I sped down the tracks to New York at 70 miles per hour, I could see cars clustering at every station in New England. Amazing.
It?s all been another week in the life of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.

It was great seeing you today in Atlanta. Thank you for just being you. As I mentioned, there's so much "crap" out there that's it's so nice to just hear it straight.
Several years ago I finally realized it just doesn't matter what I think, only what is (although I still cringe sometimes). That's the hard part. Actually finding the truth.
Even harder is how to act on it! And risk management. I have much to learn but I was glad to find out how much I do understand. (But I'll never be a coder! Too late for that.)
I'm looking forward to your options video book coming out soon. I will study hard and try to be a model student you can be proud of. Then I can write that glowing thank letter you enjoy using in your newsletters!
Safe journeys! I'll continue to live vicariously through your travels via newsletter, although I'd take you up on being your welcoming committee at your events!
I look forward to hearing you on the webinars!
Thanks again and see you next time!
Karen
Orlando, Florida

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
April 26, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 27 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(HEARD ON THE ROAD PART I),
(IT?S ALL ABOUT YIELD),
(SPY)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Every Global Strategy Luncheon was a real blast. It?s as if the dozen smartest people in each city got together to exchange notes and jokes. They then formed their own local community of Mad Hedge Fund Trader followers.
I love doing these things.
Last year, my flight to Houston cost $600. This year it was $99. What a difference a year, and $50 in the price of oil, makes.
Not to be missed on the trip from the airport were giant storage yards filled with hundreds of pieces of rusting oil drilling equipment.
A big energy hedge fund manager told me that Schlumberger (SLB) just pulled all their people out of Venezuela because they haven?t been paid. Oil production there will go to zero, taking prices up to $70/barrel by yearend.
As for natural gas, its price is going to negative numbers.
The Tampa Marriott Waterside was jammed to the gills with two conferences, one for veterinarians, the other for the Florida girls? high school volleyball championships. So the lobby was constantly filled with hundreds of very tall teenage girls wearing tight shorts.
Water, water everywhere?.
Had lunch with Harry Dent, whose unmatched demographic research I have been following for decades. He agrees that in a NIRP world stocks could stagnate, moving sideways, within a tight 15% band. That would be slow death for we traders.
I spent my day off in Charleston, South Carolina, where the Civil War began with the Confederates firing on Fort Sumter in 1861.
It is a big wedding destination now, with young couples pouring in from all over the South to tie the knot. Saturday night on Market Street saw at least a dozen bachelor and hen parties going bar to bar and getting wasted, the women falling off their platform shoes.
I attended Sunday church services at the Mother Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, where 15 people were gunned down last year.
They stopped me at the door for 20 minutes where they suspiciously checked me out. Then they invited me in and sat me down next to the only other white person there, a Jewish woman from New York.
The gospel singing was incredible, if not angelic. When I left, an usher thanked me for supporting their cause. Very moving.

Some 11 flights into this trip, and every seat was full, with airlines buying back seats for excess passengers. Where is the recession?
Miami turned into Manhattan South when I wasn?t looking. Prices for $20 million penthouses are said to be in free fall as the Russians and Chinese have pulled out because of greater disclosure rules and trade sanctions.
It was back to back meetings with my $10,000 a year Concierge Service clients all day. I didn?t even get out of the hotel. However, I did manage to meet up with an old pal though, a former Navy carrier F-18 pilot, and now a serious options trader.
I guess glide path and angle of approach easily translates into implied volatility and time decay.

Things have certainly changed in the Deep South.
When I first hitch hiked through here to join the civil rights movement, I got rides from guys driving to their local Klu Klux Klan meeting. They always invited me to come along.
I answered ?No, I?m going to another Klan meeting further down the road, but thanks anyway,? and they let me out.
Today, Atlanta has a black mayor with a white wife. Confederate flags abound in the countryside, but every one of these guys will tell you that some of their best friends are African American. The stars and bars are really more of a Declaration of Independence.
The South will rise again.
A lunch guest gave me a bottle of Glenmorangie scotch in thanks for his many profitable Trade Alerts. Another gave me a book describing his father?s participation in the CIA during the Cold War.
In my free one hour I managed to squeeze in visits to the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library, vaguely looking for a picture of myself, and the Coca Cola Museum.

The cherry blossoms were still blooming in Washington DC.
When I checked into the Army & Navy Club in Washington DC, the young clerk asked if I stayed there before. I replied, ?I stayed here once during the Civil War. Do they still have that painting of me leading a charge on the fourth floor??
Ran into a dozen visitors from the Saudi Air Ministry. Guess what that?s all about?

Nothing else to say about Washington DC but that Obama?s presidential helicopter, Marine One, is incredibly loud, but is the coolest metallic green color.

Back in Boston, and the clam chowder is to die for. I have read so much about the Revolutionary War history that it is fascinating to visit the actual locations at which these events took place.
Of course, most of the local population is clueless about their past, and I ended up explaining their history on multiple occasions.
In my free hour I visited the USS Constitution, or ?Old Ironsides,? the oldest ship in the US Navy. The 219-year-old vessel is in dry dock getting new masts and copper plating for its hull. It sank four British warships during the War of 1812.
Looking for the Next Great Trade
Then I shot over to Harvard Yard to practice my Mandarin. At the bookstore I picked up ?50 Essays That Got Accepted to Harvard? for my girls. It?s never too early to start.
Tiring of the TSA, I took Amtrak from Boston to New York. Rhode Island appears to be one big yacht harbor. They are just emerging from winter here, with the bare pale green shoots of leaves on the trees.
Nothing like arriving in the Big Apple by train, with the Empire State Building, the Chrysler Building, and Liberty Tower looming out of the evening mist.
To be continued?.
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