Global Market Comments
December 6, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JOIN ME ON MY JANUARY 3, 2025 PANAMA CANAL SEMINAR AT SEA LUNCHEON)
(TESTIMONIAL)
(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)

Global Market Comments
December 6, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JOIN ME ON MY JANUARY 3, 2025 PANAMA CANAL SEMINAR AT SEA LUNCHEON)
(TESTIMONIAL)
(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)

Come join me in the grand appointments of the Princess Coral on an adventurous 16-day cruise from Los Angeles, California to Fort Lauderdale, Florida through the Panama Canal.
The ship departs from the Port of San Pedro, Los Angeles at 12:00 PM on Thursday, December 19, 2024 and reaches Fort Lauderdale at 7:00 AM, on Saturday, January 4.
The ship will make day stops at Huatulco, Mexico, Puerto Chiapas, Mexico, Puntarenas, Costa Rica, Fuerte Amador, Panama, and Cartegena, Columbia. There will be seven full days at sea in the Pacific Ocean and The Caribbean.
There, I will be conducting the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Strategy Luncheon where I will discuss the future of the global financial markets.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate. I’ll highlight the best long and short opportunities.
And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $499 for the seminar only.
Attendees will be responsible for booking their own cabin through Princess. I just checked availability and the cheapest offer is for an inside stateroom from $2,393 per person. If you do the math, that is cheaper than staying at Motel 6 for 16 days and eating at Taco Bell every day, which is why the cruise industry is booming. Or, you can step up to $4,202 per person for a luxury mini-suite with an outside deck.
Just visit their website at https://www.princess.com/en-us or call them directly at 800-774-6237 to make your own arrangements. Only reserve cruise number 6501 for 2024.
The weather this time of year should be balmy and tropical, depending on our luck. A brisk walk four times around the boat deck adds up to a mile. Full Internet access will be available, for a price, to follow the markets. Princess is now using the SpaceX Starlink satellite access on all their ships.
Two dinners during the voyage will be black tie, so bring two tuxes or formal dresses.
The event will be held at the ship’s luxurious Owners Suite, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.
See you aboard!



Come Join Me at Sea
Dear Mr. Thomas,
Thanks for the 10-bagger on Palantir. I bought it at $7.50 and it’s now at $63.50, so I'd call that close enough to qualify. You pointed me to this company long ago, and I was patient.
Best regards,
David

It was with great sadness that I learned of the passing of travel guru Arthur Frommer at the age of 95. Arthur had a great influence on my life.
Since many of you are now planning summer vacations, I thought I would pass on what I learned from the ultimate travel guru of all time.
When I backpacked around Europe in 1968, I relied heavily on Arthur Frommer’s legendary paperback guide, Europe, on $5 a Day, which then boasted a cult-like following among impoverished but adventurous Americans. The charter airline business had just taken off, plunging airfares, and suddenly, Europe came within reach of ordinary Americans like me.
Over the following years, he directed me down cobblestoned alleyways, dubious foreign neighborhoods, and sometimes converted WWII air raid shelters to find those incredible travel deals. When he passed through town some 60 years later, I jumped at the chance to chat with the ever-cheerful worshipped travel expert.
Frommer believes there are three sea change trends going on in the travel industry today. Business is moving away from the big three travel websites, Travelocity, Orbitz, and Priceline, who have more preferential lucrative but self-enriching side deals with airlines than can be counted, towards pure aggregator sites that almost always offer cheaper fares, like Kayak.com, Sidestep.com, and Fairchase.com.
There is a move away from traditional 48-person escorted bus tours towards small group adventures, like those offered by Gap Adventures, Intrepid Tours, and Adventure Center, that take parties of 12 or less on culturally eye-opening public transportation.
There has also been a huge surge in programs offered by universities that turn travelers into students for a week to study the liberal arts at Oxford, Cambridge, and UC Berkeley. His favorite was the Great Books programs offered by St. John’s University in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Frommer says that the Internet has given a huge boost to international travel but warns against user-generated content, 70% of which is bogus, posted by the hotels and restaurants touting themselves.
The 94-year-old Frommer turned an army posting in Berlin in 1952 into a travel empire that publishes 340 books a year, or one out of every four travel books on the market. I met him on a swing through the San Francisco Bay Area (his ticket from New York was only $150), and he graciously signed my tattered, dog-eared original 1968 copy of his opus, which I still have.
Which country has changed the most in his 60 years of travel writing? France, where the citizenry has become noticeably more civil since losing WWII. Bali is the only place where you can still actually travel for $5/day, although you can see Honduras for $10/day. Always looking for a deal, Arthur’s next trip is to Chile, the only country in the world he has never visited.
With the advent of AI, Arthur has been met with an onslaught of new competition. Recently, Amazon (AMZN) has been flooded with hundreds of new travel books written entirely by algorithms. They have no human author who’s ever visited the country in question and are written entirely from existing information found on the Internet. But they’re cheap.
You can easily spot them from their wishy-washy, non-committal language and factual errors and omissions. For example, I recently found a travel book about Ukraine that neglected to mention that there was a war going on there and that its cities were being bombed by Russians daily.
Not for me.


Arthur’s Next Big Play is Bali

1968 on the French Riviera
“The individual investor in America sits at the bottom of the food chain,” said John C. Bogle, the late founder of the Vanguard Group of index funds.

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 5, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(GRANT EXPECTATIONS)
(TXG), (ILMN), (TMO), (DHR)

The first time I visited the National Institutes of Health (NIH), I got lost trying to find the bathroom and ended up in a lab where someone was studying glow-in-the-dark zebrafish.
"Wrong door," the researcher said, "but at least you didn't walk in on the fruit fly mating experiments."
Such wrong turns seem oddly fitting now as the NIH, with its $45 billion research budget, navigates its own unexpected direction under new director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.
This reminds me of a conversation I had with a university tech transfer officer who once described the grant distribution process as "academic musical chairs but with billion-dollar stakes."
Bhattacharya seems determined to change the tune, proposing limits on how many grants individual researchers can hoard like squirrels before winter.
It's a move that has some biotech companies sweating through their lab coats, particularly 10x Genomics (TXG), whose financial statements show a quarter of their revenue sprouting from NIH grants like bacteria in a petri dish.
The last time someone tried to cap grants—back in 2017—the scientific community reacted as if someone had suggested replacing peer review with a Magic 8-Ball.
The proposal was quietly buried in the bureaucratic equivalent of a drawer labeled "Ideas We'd Rather Forget." But like that mysterious experiment growing in the back of the lab fridge, it's back.
Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been making noise about trimming the NIH's organizational chart. While Kennedy's influence carries weight, Congress still holds the purse strings, and they've historically treated the NIH like their favorite child at allowance time.
Bhattacharya's critique of the NIH's traditionally cautious approach to funding feels like watching someone suggest skydiving to their risk-averse aunt.
He's pushing for more high-risk, high-reward projects, which could be a windfall for companies playing in cutting-edge sandboxes like CRISPR and AI-driven diagnostics.
Illumina (ILMN) and 10x Genomics are practically salivating at the possibilities, while established institutions might find themselves feeling like that last teenager picked for the dodgeball team.
The global picture adds another layer of intrigue to these changes. While we're debating grant caps and organizational reshuffling, China has been quietly doubling its biotech investments over the past decade, particularly in regenerative medicine and precision oncology.
If NIH reforms stumble, U.S. companies could find themselves playing catch-up. For those who want to take part in the action, this presents an opportunity to diversify.
International markets with increasing government funding for biotech offer new avenues for growth. Global biotech ETFs could also serve as a hedge against domestic uncertainties.
Against this backdrop, diversification becomes key. Consider companies with revenue streams less tethered to NIH funding.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Danaher (DHR), for example, boast a global footprint that cushions them against domestic policy shifts.
After all, the global life sciences tools market, valued at $52 billion today, is projected to grow to $95 billion by 2030, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of nearly 15.89%.
Emerging frontiers like gene therapy and personalized medicine also deserve attention. These fields aren’t just buzzwords—they’re the future of biotech.
ETFs focused on genomic innovation, like the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), provide exposure to high-growth sectors while spreading risk.
So, what’s the play here? Well, investment opportunities in this space will depend on your appetite for disruption.
10x Genomics presents an intriguing case at $15.90. Yes, up to 25% of its revenue comes from NIH funding, making it vulnerable to policy shifts.
But this same connection positions them perfectly to benefit from Bhattacharya's high-reward research initiative. The upside potential here is massive for those willing to weather some volatility.
Illumina stands out at $144.15 as a different kind of opportunity.
Their lock on the genomic sequencing market combined with aggressive R&D investments offers that rare combination: steady performance with genuine growth potential. Think of it as smart defense for your biotech portfolio.
Then there's Thermo Fisher Scientific, trading at $529.63. Their global reach and diverse revenue streams make them remarkably resilient to NIH policy changes.
The stock won't double overnight, but it offers the kind of reliability that lets you sleep soundly.
In the end, the NIH's transformation under Bhattacharya feels a bit like watching a scientist redesign an experiment mid-trial. Some see doom and gloom in these changes, while others spot golden opportunities.
But if you ask me whether the biotech glass is half empty or half full, I'd say we're missing the point entirely—in this industry, the glass has always been refillable.



Global Market Comments
December 5, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAUNCHING “TRADING OPTIONS FOR BEGINNERS”)

(NVDA), (MSFT), (META), (PLTR), (AI)
Did you know that the average person spends about 7 hours looking for their lost keys each year?
Well, the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu is facing a slightly bigger lost-and-found crisis: they're about to lose their entire country to rising seas.
But instead of calling the planetary equivalent of AAA, they've come up with a solution that would make Philip K. Dick drop his jaw: they're backing up their entire nation to the cloud.
And no, I don't mean they're storing their family photos on Google Drive.
In what might be the most ambitious "control+C, control+V" operation in human history, Tuvalu is creating a digital twin of itself in the metaverse.
When I first heard this, I spent three fascinating hours down the digital rabbit hole to better understand the project, and let me tell you, it's a far cry from your nephew's Minecraft server.
The artificial intelligence they're using is incredibly sophisticated. Just think about this: the computing power required to render just one square mile of Tuvalu's virtual landscape could run approximately 10,000 Nintendo 64s simultaneously – though I'm not sure why you'd want to.
But raw computing power is just the beginning.
This AI isn't just playing SimCity here. It's analyzing everything from the way palm trees sway in the breeze (did you know a coconut palm can survive winds up to 145 mph?) to the subtle nuances of Tuvaluan dance movements.
Though I have to wonder if it can capture the precise sensation of stepping on a sea urchin – some experiences might be better left un-digitized.
Speaking of digital preservation challenges, let's look at the players making this virtual island possible.
First up is NVIDIA (NVDA), the company whose graphics cards probably cost you a month's rent.
Their Omniverse platform is like Minecraft meets NASA, except instead of building blocky castles, they're preserving entire civilizations.
Working alongside NVIDIA, Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure cloud services are providing what amounts to digital real estate in the sky.
Remember when cloud storage meant having enough space for your vacation photos? These folks are storing an entire country.
To put that in perspective, the amount of data required to recreate Tuvalu virtually is roughly equivalent to streaming "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy 47,000 times in 4K – extended editions included.
Not to be outdone in this digital nation-building exercise, there's Meta (META), throwing money at their Reality Labs division for months now.
But creating a digital nation isn't just about pretty graphics and virtual spaces.
Behind the scenes, Palantir Technologies (PLRT) is handling the heavy lifting in the data department, processing environmental data so complex that one scientist described it as "trying to drink from a fire hose while solving a Rubik's cube blindfolded."
Their AI systems are essentially keeping tabs on an entire nation's slow-motion disappearing act – talk about job pressure.
Rounding out this tech dream team is C3.ai (AI), which is essentially creating the virtual world's utility companies.
They're making sure all these digital nations run on clean, efficient energy – though I'm still waiting for someone to explain how a virtual country can have a carbon footprint.
With all these tech giants building digital lifeboats, the investment opportunities in this digital Noah's Ark scenario are about as diverse as a tech conference buffet. But unlike that suspicious-looking sushi that's been sitting out too long, these opportunities might actually be worth your attention.
The sheer scale of this undertaking is mind-boggling.
During my research, I came across a fascinating statistic: the processing power needed to run a full-scale digital nation is roughly equivalent to playing 500,000 games of chess simultaneously while also streaming every episode of "Friends" ever made. In 8K. With director's commentary.
And while that might sound like overkill, consider this: Tuvalu might be the first nation to create a digital twin, but they're unlikely to be the last.
Climate change isn't exactly known for its patience, and other vulnerable nations are watching this experiment with intense interest.
The urgency of this digital preservation project becomes clearer with each passing moment. Here's a sobering thought: by the time you finish reading this article, Tuvalu's physical shoreline will have eroded by about the same amount as a grain of sand.
But in their virtual world, that shoreline will remain pristine, unchanged, and permanently preserved in digital amber. It's a bit like having a backup drive for an entire culture, except with better graphics and fewer annoying update notifications.
As Tuvalu's physical shores slowly slip beneath the waves, the message is becoming crystal clear: the future might be virtual, but the opportunities are very real.
Whether you're betting on the hardware giants, the cloud providers, or the data wizards, you're essentially investing in humanity's first attempt at digital immortality.
Just remember: like any good backup system, it's probably wise to diversify.
In the meantime, if you need me, I'll be practicing my virtual handshake. I'm told it's going to be an essential skill in the metaverse, though I'm still not quite sure how that works without haptic feedback.
But that's another story for another time, preferably after I figure out how to stop my avatar from accidentally walking through walls.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 4, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MANAGEMENT TURNOVER IN TECH SPURRING CHANGES)
(INTC), (CRWD), (PANW)

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