Global Market Comments for January 14, 2009
Featured Trades (C),

1) The financial supermarket is an idea whose time has clearly gone, as we learn that it was just a strategy to lose more money, in more exotic places, in more exciting ways. The sale of Citibank's (C) crown jewels at fire sale prices, like the deal with Morgan Stanley for Smith Barney, just to get enough cash to make it through the quarter, marks the beginning of the end. I believe that we are witnessing an effective voluntary dissolution of (C) to head off an involuntary chapter 11 filing. US bank earnings forecasts are still lost in Lala land. Expect more surprise shotgun marriages between banks, and dilution of existing bank common shareholders.

2) The Citibank developments, which have been unfolding since Monday, stuck a thumb in the eye of the stock market's fragile 2009 rally. The 857 level in the S&P 500 a make or break point for the market, and traders had no problem taking it through the key number like a hot knife through butter. Bank and railroad sub indexes have already broken through their November lows, and retest for the main indeces is now in the cards. The markets are now telling us that the 'end of the world' trade is back in play.

3) I attended a luncheon today for old college economics professor, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich. The bad news is that we will lose another three million jobs this year, taking unemployment easily into double digits. The good news is that we are not entering another Great Depression, or even a Japanese style lost decade. We are in the midst of a cyclical recession, albeit a very deep one, from which we will emerge in 2010. Part of the problem is that the share of earnings of the top 1% of American income earners has soared from 8% in 1980 to 23% in 2006. These people don't spend their money, they invest it, effectively removing it from the retail economy.

4) In July, when gas was at $4.49 a gallon, I told you to buy a Hummer. Now I'm telling you to go skiing. Friends tell me that despite the best snow in years, the slopes at Vail are deserted. According to my old CPA, who is now the CFO of Vail Resorts, visitors are down 5.8%, lift ticket sales are down 7.8%, and hotel bookings are down 14.8%. Parking for private jets at the airport is easily available for the first time in years. Indeed, Costco is now offering two for one discount lift passes for almost every ski resort at Lake Tahoe.

5) Crude dives. More than 325 million barrels of crude are now in storage worldwide, a new record. This is equivalent to four days of global consumption, 16 days of US consumption, and 32 days of US imports, and the world is running out of storage.

6) With the Big Three carmakers now in their final death throes, there is one car maker whose sales are still booming. Smart Cars saw December sales jump 24% MOM to a total for the year of 25,000 units. With gas prices low, dealers are still able to market the 30 mpg vehicles as a hedge against future gas price spikes. At $12,000 they are so cheap they don't need financing, are environmentally friendly, easy to park, a new fashion item, and are 'cute.'

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Ten billion, here, ten billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money,' said the late senator Everett Dirksen.

Global Market Comments for January 13, 2009
Featured Trades: (PTEN)

1) The 'all clear' signal given by the markets last week has been cancelled. All of the 'feel good' trades, like stronger crude, gold, commodities, and Dow, have all viciously reversed in lockstep. The 'feel bad' trades like a stronger yen, euro yen, and Treasuries have once again reared their ugly poxy heads. There are basically only two trades in the world right now: 'things are getting better' and 'things are getting worse.' Only corporate bonds have held up because they are the cheapest thing out there, and will be the earliest to recover. I have a feeling that this kind of choppy, frustrating, range trading will continue for another six months. Things will become even more difficult to trade when the economic data evolves from all bad, to some good, some bad, later in the year. If you want to trade the market, lie down and take a long nap first. Like until September.

2) Hybrids now account for 2.4% of the severely diminished US car market, and 125,000 of these, or half, are accounted for by Toyota's Prius. The Japanese car maker has been developing this vehicle for more than a dozen years, and has had a competitively priced product on the market that consumers love for eight years. The just launched 2009 model is bigger, more powerful, with better mileage, for the same price. And the company's plug in version, now in fleet testing, which will enable drivers to live a largely carbon free existence, will be available in the US in 2010. Listening to Detroit and its apologists promise Congress they can save their industry with a ground up design of an inferior, later, and more expensive product, shows you how delusional they really are.

3) If you don't like the way the markets have been behaving lately, blame sun spots, which have been appearing in the fewest numbers since 1913. Many days this autumn saw no sun spots at all! Many economic historians are convinced of the validity of this theory. Fewer sun spots correlate with colder winters and agricultural failures, which feed into the economic cycle. Higher wheat and soybean prices this month are already starting to reflect this.

4) After last year's carnage, you can expect the remnants of the hedge fund industry to split in two. One group will inherit large, illiquid fixed income positions, like convertible bonds and subprime CDO's, and evolve into private equity funds, which they should have been all along. The rest will retreat to trading large liquid global positions that did well during the nineties, offering investors quarterly redemptions they now demand. Fees will fall across the board. This is how hedge funds will cope with a new world that is transitioning from excess capital to a capital shortage.

5) The world is drowning in crude. The spot/June contango is now up to an unbelievable $12. This means that you can buy crude today at $38, store it, and resell it for June delivery for $50. The trade has filled 75% of the world's storage capacity, and the balance can be had only for an enormous premium. There are so many dislocations going on in the world economy today that it is hard to keep track of them all.

6) I continue to feel like a kid in a candy store with these oil service stocks because I believe they have one more good crude spike in them. Look at Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN), which operates 403 rigs for oil and gas drilling in the Midwest. The stock has been truly trashed by the oil glut, so the PE is now down to 5 X, and the dividend stands at a generous 5.5%. At its book value you are buying a rig for $5 million, which costs $15 on the open market. This means that it is now cheaper to drill on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange than in an oil field. I did business with these guys in my wildcatting days and they are a standout bunch.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Sometimes the end of an old technology is more exciting than the beginning of a new technology,' says comic Jay Leno of his new 650 horsepower SLR McLaren Mercedes.

Global Market Comments for January 12, 2009
Featured Trades: (FLS)

1) If you had any doubt where the next equity play is going to be, take a look at the chart below, which I lifted from The Economist. It shows that by the end of this year, 80% of GDP growth will be generated by emerging economies, while only 20% will come from developed ones. Time to brush up on your Portuguese, Russian, Hindi, Mandarin or Cantonese, and for good measure, Korean. Forgetting you know where Wall Street is might also help.

2) Hennessee Group says that hedge funds lost an average 18.9% in 2008, the worst year ever. Despite all of the moaning, I think this is pretty good for a year when all known asset classes, except Treasuries, dropped by half. And the jungle telegraph tells me that there are thousands of disciplined, risk controlled, low leveraged traders out there who used the volatility to generate great years, but are keeping a low profile. Making tons of money has suddenly gone out of fashion.

3) War sure has changed in the Internet age. Israelis are coming home from work, setting up lawn chairs outside, and making videos of incoming missiles. They then post these on YouTube to be viewed by cheering supporter in the US. The closest explosions are getting the most views.

4) Many economists believe that the Great Depression?? was only ended by the massive spending brought on by WWII, which cost $4 trillion in today's dollars. So when Obama says that we are looking at trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, he is not kidding.

5) I continue to like buying key oil infrastructure stocks here at throw away prices, as cheap undated calls on the future resurgence of crude prices. Flowserve (FLS) is a global supplier of pumps, valves, seals, automation, and services to the power, oil, gas, and chemical industries. After a 75% drop in the stock, it now sells at a PE multiple of 7 X, giving you a return on equity of 33%. It's a perfect case of a baby being thrown out with the bath water. Remember my call eight months ago to buy airline stocks as cheap puts on crude before their 400% rise? Same thing. You are getting free leverage on multiple fronts with no expiration date.

4) Some 23% of the population of California does not speak English, compared to 14.5% for the entire US. These numbers have gone up since Homeland Security closed the border with Mexico.

Global Market Comments for January 9, 2009
Featured Trades: (NUE), (WMT), (AMTD), (SWIM), (SCHW)

1) The December nonfarm payroll came in at 524,000, taking the unemployment rate up to a 26 year high of 7.2%. At least the Labor Dept. didn't post a job loss of a million, as the Cassandras had predicted. More than 11 million Americans are now out of work. Some 2.6 million lost jobs in 2008, including 1.9 million in just the last four months. That is almost a whole recession's worth. Seasonal hiring for Christmas by retailers never happened. Only education and health care are still hiring workers. If you throw in those workers who have given up looking for jobs, and those whose unemployment benefits have run out, the real unemployment rate is probably closer to 15%.

2)?? Dan Dimicco, CEO of Nucor (NUE), the best run steel company in the US, says that only $1 billion in infrastructure spending can create 35,000 jobs. We need seven million jobs to put the unemployed back to work, along with new workers joining the labor force from natural population growth and immigration. So only $200 billion of well placed public works projects should do the trick.?? The only question is, can you turn stock brokers and mortgage brokers into ditch diggers?

3) I can't resist showing you the chart for Greek Shipping giant Dry Shipping (DRYS), which I recommended in November at $3. It is up 500% off the back of a healthy recovery in the Baltic Dry Shipping market ($BDI). This is yet another indication that the world is not ending.

4) 'Abandon Hope All Ye Who Enter.'?? So says Dante in his description of the Gates of Hell. This is how retailers must feel after enduring their worst December on record. Yesterday, Walmart (WMT), viewed by many as the only safe hideout in the sector, announced a sales shortfall, taking the stock down 7%. It turns out that WMT has the highest percentage of sales to customers who are getting laid off, maxing out credit cards, and losing homes in foreclosure. It is also believed that the new Obama administration will make it easier for WMT's workers to finally unionize, never a good development for a listed company. Think GM.

5) One of the few safe havens in the financial sectors is online brokers, who dodged the bullet, because they are pure fee collectors, don't have proprietary trading desks, don't take risk, and didn't use leverage to invest dubious high yield paper to artificially boost earnings. This approach was highlighted yesterday by TD Ameritrade's (AMTD) takeover of competitor Thinkorswim Group (SWIM) for $600 million. The move gives AMTD access to a first class online trading platform in options and an expanded customer base. Another good pick in this area is Charles Schwab (SCHW).

5) Governor Blagojevich was impeached, the vote coming in at 114-1. Thank you, thank you, People of Illinois, for making California no longer appear as the worst run state in the country!

FACT OF THE DAY

If Elvis had lived, he would have been 74 yesterday. Perish the thought of what he would look like now! I have to tell you that I was once given a personal tour of Graceland by his last girlfriend, and was shown the exact toilet where the King expired. It's been a full life. ?.

Global Market Comments for January 8, 2009
Featured Trades: (TRN), (JEC), (WTIC)

1) It is still possible to buy stocks on the cheap that will benefit greatly from the massive public works projects Obama is about to unleash. Trinity Industries (TRN), a major provider of concrete and aggregates with a presence in construction and rail cars, recently dropped 80%. It is now selling at 4 X earnings, 70% of book, and has a juicy 7% dividend yield. Another one to peek at is Jacobs Engineering (JEC), a leader in construction consulting and services.

2) Yesterday, Morgan Stanley led a jumbo 30 year, 7% bond issue for GE credit which was oversubscribed. This is 400 basis points through Treasuries, and is good news for all corporate borrowers. The credit thaw continues, even though stock traders can't see it.

3) The real estate disaster once known as Las Vegas, where 27,000 homes are for sale, continues to probe new lows. Hotel vacancy rates have hit 18%, and you can now get a four day weekend at a top hotel there, including flights from San Francisco, for $200! Construction has halted on the $5 billion Echelon Resorts for lack of financing, leaving a major eyesore on the city's skyline. MGM Mirage's massive City Center complex continues, only because of credit from Dubai. Sitting pretty is the Palms, which is just being completed, but sold out all of its condos two years ago when the market fever was still alive. While 10% of the buyers have walked away from their deposits, the owners are converting these to luxury hotel rooms.

4) The crude market continues to reel after yesterday's stunning inventory figures, with prices down another 5% to $40. The US should buy the fleet of tankers at sea storing crude, and add it to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at these prices. With unlimited financing, the government is the only entity which can exploit the incredible 40% contango now present in the crude market. While this opportunity is screaming out to every junior trader in the energy pits, it is oblivious to Washington, where, in any case, we are leaderless. It was government buying for the SPR at $140 which put the top in for the crude market.

5) Most economists view the ECB's continued reluctance to further cut interest rates as nothing less than insanity. Trichet is living in a bubble. It can't last much longer. One out of seven German jobs depends on the car industry, and there is now excess global capacity of 20 million units/year. At least someone in the UK has some sense, where the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 0.5% to 1.5%, the lowest since the institution was created in 1694.

6) While weekly jobless claims fell, total unemployment hit a 27 year high of 4.6 million.

AMAZING FACT OF THE DAY

Investigators found $143 million in signed bonus checks for favored employees in Bernie Madoff's desk. I have pretty much seen everything after 35 years in the financial world, but the revelations in this case continue to floor me.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Someone once asked the late Chinese premier Zhou Enlai what was the international impact of the 1789 French Revolution. He answered, 'It's still too early to tell.'