Global Market Comments
April 17, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE LAZY MAN’S GUIDE TO TRADING),
(ROM), (UXI), (BIB), (UYG),
(THE NEXT THING FOR THE FED TO BUY IS GOLD)
(GLD), (GOLD), (GDX), (NEM)

Global Market Comments
April 17, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE LAZY MAN’S GUIDE TO TRADING),
(ROM), (UXI), (BIB), (UYG),
(THE NEXT THING FOR THE FED TO BUY IS GOLD)
(GLD), (GOLD), (GDX), (NEM)

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 16, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(IS THIS BIOTECH BULL RUN OUT OF STEAM?)
(VRTX), (CRSP)

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) has been crushing it. They're a powerhouse in the healthcare game, no doubt.
But with that stock price shooting for the moon and a $100 billion valuation, it's got me asking: Is this ride getting a little too rich for our blood? Is it time to cash out and look for greener pastures, or is there still some juice left in Vertex's tank?
Let's take a look at why the Vertex bulls are so pumped.
The company's a giant in cystic fibrosis – no argument there. Their drug Trikafta/Kaftrio is practically printing money, raking in a whopping $8.9 billion last year. Sure, things slowed a bit in 2023, but hey, that's still serious cash.
But here's the thing: If Vertex was just about cystic fibrosis, the price tag could make a careful investor go "Whoa, Nelly!" Growth investors, though, see a bigger picture, a company ready to branch out and rake in even more dough.
Take the recent FDA approval for Casgevy, the gene therapy treatment Vertex developed with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP). This thing could be HUGE for treating blood disorders like sickle cell disease. In fact, its potential peak sales are projected at $3.9 billion — and even with Vertex splitting the profits, that's a juicy opportunity.
Another potential blockbuster is Vertex's non-opioid painkiller, VX-548. The results so far are looking good, and it’s pegged to become a $5 billion moneymaker. Think about the opioid mess we're in – a safe, effective alternative could be massive.
We need to be patient with VX-548 though. It's not approved yet, but it's definitely one to watch. Vertex is aiming to file for approval around the middle of this year, specifically for treating those nasty post-surgery pains.
Aside from these, Vertex is setting its sights on other serious unmet needs. Take APOL1-mediated kidney disease. This nasty condition lurks in the shadows until BAM, your kidneys are about to bail on you. Signs like protein in your urine and swelling mean it might be too late.
But, Vertex has a potential solution up its sleeve: inaxaplin. Early trials look promising, with patients seeing major improvement. The results were so good that they're even going to start testing it in younger patients.
Could inaxaplin be another game-changer? Well, Vertex thinks it could help at least 100,000 patients in the US and Europe – that's even more than the number of people with CF they already serve.
And, get this: There's NO approved treatment for the root cause of this kidney disease. If Vertex wins this race, it could turn into a blockbuster franchise to rival its lucrative CF success.
On top of these candidates, Vertex recently scooped up Alpine Immune Sciences (ALPN), and that move shows just how serious they are at adding more firepower to their pipeline. And, if Alpine's drug makes it through those big Phase 3 trials – the ones set to start soon – Vertex could end up being worth a LOT more than the $4.9 billion they shelled out.
For context, let's break down what Alpine does. They're all about those fancy protein-based immunotherapies, fancy words for treatments that target the immune system for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. While their drugs are still in the testing phase, one called povetacicept looks especially promising for autoimmune kidney diseases like IgA nephropathy.
Translation: Alpine's got some traction towards treating these nasty kidney diseases. They've finished Phase 2 trials and are gearing up for the big leagues: Phase 3. That's where they test the drug on a whole bunch of patients, comparing it to a placebo, to get the data that could make regulators give the thumbs up for market launch.
With all these in mind, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Is Vertex overpriced?
The stock's been on a tear, rocketing up 90% in just three years. And at those hefty multiples – 29 times earnings, 11 times revenue – it sure doesn't look cheap.
But, if you believe in the promise of Vertex's future, things look a little different. Check out that PEG ratio – a measly 0.5. That's a bargain hunter's dream, especially for a stock with so much growth potential.
So, what should you do: buy, sell, or hold Vertex? Well, this stock's got growth potential and it's not so insanely expensive that you gotta dump it today. If you already own it, hang tight – it doesn't look like disaster's lurking around the corner.
The bigger question is for those of you who missed the boat. Is it worth jumping on now?
As long as you're in it for the long haul, Vertex could still make you a nice pile of cash. Keep an eye on those VX-548 regulatory filings – if Vertex is moving ahead, they're probably feeling good about the drug's chances. And with Casgevy getting the green light for multiple uses, Vertex already has a shiny new revenue stream alongside its cystic fibrosis powerhouse.
So while the stock price might make you wince, don't discount the long-term potential. This biotech bull might take a breather every now and then, but the race has just begun. I suggest you buy the dip.

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
April 16, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAY 3, 2024 QUITO, ECUADOR STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(BIDDING FOR THE STARS)
(SPX), (INDU)
(TESTIMONIAL)

Come join me for lunch for my Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Quito Ecuador at 12:00 PM on Friday, May 3, 2024. A three-course lunch is included.
I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $269.
Quito, the capital of Ecuador, is high in South America’s Andes mountains at 8,000 feet and dead on the equator. The Old Town was built by the Conquistadors on the ruins of an Inca city. It has since become a key stopover for illegal immigrants from China. Those with heart conditions should not attend.
I’ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel in Quito’s Old Town, the details of which will be emailed to you.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.


Risk assets everywhere are now facing a good news glut.
My 2024 market top target of 6,000 for the Dow S&P 500 is rushing ever forward with reckless abandon.
Today’s price action really gives you the feeling that we have just seen a short-term blow-off market top.
The stock market is turning into the Bitcoin market.
A few years ago, I went to a charity fundraiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and their mother’s Channel No. 5.
Amply fueled with champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties who shall remain nameless. Suffice it to say, she is now married to a tech titan and has a sports stadium named after her.
Obviously, I didn’t work hard enough.
The bids soared to $37,000, $38,000, and $39,000.
After all, it was for a good cause. But when it hit $40,000, I suddenly developed a severe case of lockjaw. Later, the sheepish winner with a severe case of buyer’s remorse came to me and offered his date back to me for only $37,000. I said “No thanks.” $36,000, $35,000, $34,000?
I passed.
The altitude of the stock market right now reminds me of that evening.
If you rode the S&P 500 (SPX) from 700 to 5,200 and the Dow Average (INDU) from 6,000 to 39,000, why sweat trying to eke out a few more basis points, especially when the risk/reward ratio sucks so badly, as it does now?
I realize that many of you are not hedge fund managers and that running a prop desk, mutual fund, 401k, pension fund, or day trading account has its own demands.
But let me quote what my favorite Chinese general, Deng Xiaoping, once told me in person: “There is a time to fish and a time to hang your nets out to dry.” If you followed my Trade Alerts this year and are now up 15%, you don’t have to chase every trade.
At least then I’ll have plenty of dry powder for when the window of opportunity reopens for business. So while I’m mending my nets, I’ll be building new lists of trades for you to strap on when the sun, moon, and stars align once again.

In my wealth management practice, you helped me finesse last October like a virtuoso. As my client’s investments were crashing through their stops…I hung on. Your sage counsel helped me ignore the noise, focus on the numbers and add to positions at a great entry point. The scar tissue you’ve built up over your career is no small benefit to your subscribers.
Thank you so much!
Brad
Bakersfield, California

“You can become rich by having more than you need, or by needing less than you have,” said a wise friend.

(PLTR), (ARM), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NVDA)
Investing trends come and go faster than your wives or girlfriends can change their minds about dinner plans. But every once in a while, a trend comes along that's got some serious staying power. I'm talking about the kind of trend that makes investors filthy rich and leaves the rest of us kicking ourselves for not jumping on the bandwagon sooner.
Just look at the cloud computing craze. Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL) have been raking in the dough with their fancy cloud services, to the tune of $64 billion in just the last quarter.
But before the cloud, it was the internet that had everyone buzzing. And let's not forget about the automobile – that baby dominated the 20th century like a boss. The common thread? Efficiency and practicality. We humans just can't resist anything that makes our lives easier and more productive.
And that brings us to the latest and greatest enduring trend: artificial intelligence (AI).
Now, I know you're probably thinking, "Hey, isn't everyone and their mother investing in AI these days?" And you'd be right.
But here's the thing – not all AI stocks are created equal. You need to be smart about where you put your money, or you'll end up with a portfolio full of duds.
As the legendary investor Peter Lynch once said, "Know what you own and why you own it." In other words, before you jump on the AI bandwagon, make sure you understand the companies you're investing in and the reasons behind their potential for success.
It's not just about chasing the hottest trends or getting caught up in the hype. It's about doing your due diligence, looking under the hood, and identifying the businesses with the right ingredients for long-term growth and profitability.
And that's exactly why I'm excited about companies like Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Arm Holdings (ARM). These aren't just any old AI stocks – they're well-established players with unique strengths and a proven ability to innovate and execute in this fast-moving field.
Let's start with Palantir. Now, I know their stock might seem a bit pricey, but trust me, they're proving the naysayers wrong.
The knock on Palantir was that they couldn't turn a profit to save their lives. Well, guess what? They just reported their fifth straight profitable quarter. And don't even get me started on their commercial business – it's growing like a weed on steroids.
At its core, Palantir's software is all about helping businesses and governments make sense of their data. It's like having a super-smart assistant who can crunch numbers, spot patterns, and give you the insights you need to make better decisions. And with their new Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), they're taking things to a whole new level.
Next, let's talk about Arm Holdings.
Back in 2020, Nvidia (NVDA) was so hot to trot for Arm Holdings back, to the tune of $40 billion. Do you know why? It's simple, really – Arm is the backbone of the semiconductor industry, and without them, the AI revolution would be running on fumes.
You see, for AI to work its magic, you need some seriously powerful chips that can crunch through massive amounts of data at breakneck speeds, all while sipping power like a Tesla (TSLA). And that's where Arm comes in.
But, here's the thing – Arm doesn't actually make the chips themselves. They're more like the brains behind the operation, designing the blueprints (or "architecture," as they like to call it) that other companies use to bring these high-tech wonders to life.
And every time someone uses an Arm design, ka-ching! Arm gets a nice little payday in the form of royalties and license fees.
In fact, 99% of smartphones out there already have Arm's technology inside. That's right, you're probably using Arm's tech every single day without even realizing it.
We're talking about a massive market here. To date, a whopping $280 billion worth of chips built on Arm's designs have been shipped worldwide. That's a lot of zeros, and it just goes to show how critical Arm is to the future of AI and the semiconductor industry as a whole.
And with the AI race heating up, demand for Arm's designs is going through the roof. Their revenue might not be mind-blowing yet, but the backlog of orders tells a different story – it's up a whopping 38% to $2.4 billion.
Now, I know what you're thinking – these stocks aren't exactly cheap. But, the reality is, sometimes you've got to pay up for quality. And when it comes to AI, Palantir and Arm Holdings are the cream of the crop.
My advice? Don't go all-in on one stock. Spread your bets, buy a little at a time, and be ready to pounce when the market gives you a discount. AI is the future, and these two companies are leading the charge.
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