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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 15, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(GM’s INVESTMENT IN EVs IS ATTRACTING ATTENTION)

May 15, 2024

 

Hello everyone,

General Motors could be a bright spot in an automobile industry challenged by a weakening electric vehicle market.

Slowing sales and sluggish adoption rates have driven down shares of EV leader Tesla by 31% this year, raising concerns over whether the Elon Musk-led company can build on its EV market share globally while also delivering on full self-driving initiatives.

Citigroup and Bank of America have General Motors in their sights as they believe this company can strengthen its position in EVs.

Shares of General Motors have climbed 26% in 2024, far outperforming the 9.5% gain in the S&P500.  Last month, GM topped sales and earnings in the first quarter and raised its full-year outlook.

Citigroup has a buy rating on GM with a $96 per share price target, implying a 113% upside from Monday’s $45.17 close.

Also bullish on the stock is Bank of America.  Analysts at the bank think GM’s forward guidance after its first-quarter results will prove too conservative.  GM’s execution and strength in its Core business continue to enable the company to make investments in EVs [autonomous vehicles] and other areas to future-proof the business while continuing to return value to shareholders.  BofA analysts have given GM a $75 per share price target implying a 66% upside over the next 12 months.

Recommended Action:  Buy 50/60 out of the money June 2025 Bull Call LEAPS and/or buy the stock.  GM stock price:  $45.03

 

General Motors – committing to an all-electric future

 

 

 

 

Cheers,

Jacquie

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 15, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 15, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (TTEK), (PNR)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 14, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 14, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(EARS TO THE GROUND)

(REGN), (LLY), (FENC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-14 12:02:032024-05-14 13:22:08May 14, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Ears To The Ground

Biotech Letter

When your kid is part of a cutting-edge trial for hearing restoration, you're practically glued to their every reaction. That's the case for the parents of the first little one to receive Regeneron's (REGN) experimental gene therapy, DB-OTO.

This groundbreaking treatment delivers the missing otoferlin protein to the sensory hair cells in the ear, restoring signal transmission and, theoretically, giving these kids the gift of hearing.

The baby, part of the CHORD trial, started responding to sounds at home way before the docs officially confirmed it.

"Beautiful" is Regeneron described this early sign of progress. Turns out, nothing beats seeing your kid react to the world of sound for the first time.

Let me give you the basics of this therapy. So, imagine the sensory hair cells in your ear as a team of tiny dancers. They groove to the vibrations of sound, signaling to your auditory nerve and ultimately your brain.

Kids with this specific genetic hearing loss have the dancers, but they're out of sync – they can't communicate that signal to the brain. DB-OTO is like giving these dancers a choreographer, delivering the missing otoferlin protein, and restoring the signal transmission.

Actually, DB-OTO isn't entirely a Regeneron creation. They snagged it up when they acquired Decibel for $109 million in 2023. But this wasn’t a hostile takeover – these two companies had been working hand-in-hand on DB-OTO since 2017, making the deal a no-brainer. Heck, Regeneron even brought over the team behind the project to keep things running smoothly.

And as it turns out, Regeneron and Decibel didn't have to reinvent the wheel (or the eardrum) with their delivery method.

They took a page from the cochlear implant playbook, making it easier for ear, nose, and throat docs (ENTs) to jump on board when this therapy eventually hits the market. They figured that they could just take this groundbreaking technology and make it work with techniques surgeons already know like the back of their hands. Smart move, right?

One unexpected twist? The family noticed the kid's voice sounded less harsh without the cochlear implant.

Now, that's not a hard data point, but it hints that DB-OTO might offer something unique: a more natural hearing experience compared to cochlear implants, which tend to have a robotic sound that takes some getting used to. Cochlear implants bypass the ear altogether, zapping the auditory nerve directly. Effective, sure, but not exactly the most elegant solution.

It's not just about regaining hearing – it's about unlocking a child's world. Regeneron’s ASGCT presentation showcased patient 1's incredible journey: responding to sounds at 3 weeks, meaningful sounds by 6 months, and even hearing with the cochlear implant turned off at 24 weeks.

A second 4-year-old patient is also showing promising signs, with improved hearing at the same early time points. Side effects? Nothing more than a common ear infection, which was easily treated.

But this wasn't an overnight miracle. Regeneron and Decibel brainstormed this idea six years ago, putting their heads together to figure out where they could make a real difference. They seem to have found their niche.

And they didn't just buy one therapy – they snagged a whole pipeline of possibilities. There's AAV.103 for a different type of hearing loss, and AAV.104 for another genetic form. They're even tackling balance issues, because apparently, ears do more than just listen. These additional therapies fit into Regeneron's broader strategy of becoming a leader in the auditory space.

Next, let's talk dollars and cents, shall we?

Regeneron shelled out $213 million (if you include those fancy CVRs) for Decibel. That's a hefty bet, but they're banking on DB-OTO getting regulatory approval in multiple countries by 2028. Ambitious? Absolutely. But the potential payoff for patients – and investors – could be worth it.

As expected, Regeneron's not the only one with their stethoscope in this growing market.

Eli Lilly (LLY) wasn't far behind, scooping up Decibel's rival Akouos for a whopping $487 million in late 2022. Plus, they're also gunning for that otoferlin gene therapy prize.

And don't forget Fennec Pharmaceuticals (FENC), who snagged FDA approval for their chemo-induced hearing loss treatment last year. Looks like everyone wants a slice of this pie.

Now, for the data geeks (I know you're out there).

Regeneron's Q1 results were a tad underwhelming for Wall Street, with EPS at $9.55 (below the $10.17 estimate) and revenue dipping slightly to $3.15 billion, mostly due to the COVID drug Ronapreve drying up.

But take that out of the equation, and revenue actually grew 7%. Not that bad.

And there's good news elsewhere. Sales of Dupixent and Libtayo are soaring, up 24% and a whopping 45% respectively. That's where the future lies.

Sure, they've had some bumps in the road (the FDA rejecting odronextamab wasn't ideal), but their Eylea HD launch is gaining steam, with $200 million in sales already.

These successes, coupled with the potential of DB-OTO and the other auditory therapies, paint a promising picture for Regeneron's future growth.

So, what should you do? Keep your eyes on their pipeline, especially those new oncology and weight-loss treatments. And with a $3 billion stock buyback plan, Regeneron's showing they're confident in their future.

This might not be a slam dunk, but it's a bet on a company that's not afraid to swing for the fences in the biotech game. With a strong pipeline, a track record of innovation, and the financial muscle to back it up, Regeneron is positioning itself to be a major player in this growing market.

For those willing to ride out the bumps, the long-term payoff could be music to their ears.

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) May 14, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-14 11:13:182024-05-14 11:13:18Trade Alert - (NVDA) May 14, 2024 - TAKE PROFITS - SELL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 14, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
May 14, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(LOOKING AT THE LARGE NUMBERS)
(TLT), (TBT) (BITCOIN), (MSTR), (BLOK), (HUT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-14 09:04:512024-05-14 12:41:03May 14, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 13, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(BUY THE TOURIST PLATFORM TECH STOCK)
(ABNB), (EXPE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-13 14:04:412024-05-13 15:25:28May 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Buy The Tourist Platform Tech Stock

Tech Letter

Any type of selloff in Airbnb (ABNB) shares will be short-lived as we approach the summer Olympics and European soccer summer tournament.

Global Events of a month-long will get people out of their homes and spending their cash.

These premium events will move the needle for Airbnb revenue-wise in Europe.

The heart of world travel is Western Europe so it’s convenient that these mega-events are in France and Germany and not in some backwater. 

Better luck next time if you haven’t locked up your Airbnb in Germany or France by now.

Travelers even have the option to stay through September and enjoy the annual Oktoberfest in Bavaria.

There isn’t lodging to be found in Western Europe in the summer months and even though the economy is starting to weaken around the edges, we are still in for another summer of travel post-pandemic style.

Tourists are splurging like there is no tomorrow held up by the higher income bracket. 

Italy is famous for hosting 8 million Americans per year and is otherwise known as Americans' favorite European destination.

That number is poised to balloon to 12 million by 2030 and that means revenue growth for Airbnb as Italian Airbnb’s are rampant everywhere you go in Italy.

As for the company, the business model has been doing great ever since CEO and Founder Brian Chesky put a tight leash on expenses after being caught wrongfooted during the pandemic.

The stock sold off on the earnings even with the nice beat and the Mad Hedge tech letter executed a call spread on the underlying shares.

Weak guidance has been a hallmark of this past earnings season as the economy softens.

Management needs a lower bar to jump over for later this year.

Revenue increased 18% year over year to $2.14 billion last quarter, ahead of the $2.06 billion consensus.

The surge in profit margins was due in part to a shift in the Easter holiday to the first quarter, strong interest income, and leverage from its revenue growth and cost discipline.

The stock is now down 13% from its year-to-date peak and at its lowest point in close to three months.

Airbnb competes with hotels and other types of overnight accommodations, but its closest competitors are other home-sharing platforms like Expedia's VRBO.

But Airbnb already dominates the home-sharing niche with a leading market share among those platforms, and the company appeared to strengthen its position in the first quarter. Revenue at Expedia (EXPE) increased 8% in the period, while its B2C division which includes VRBO was up just 3%.

Competitors have been unable to overcome the powerful network effect present on Airbnb's platform, allowing it to continue growing its lead.

The shareholder returns program is beefing up.

The company continues to return capital to shareholders, buying back $750 million in stock last quarter. With $2.5 billion in total share repurchases over the past year,

Airbnb has reduced its shares outstanding by nearly 3% over that period. While 3% might not sound like much, this strategy compounds over time, and Airbnb should be able to increase buybacks as profits grow.

Additionally, the company is benefiting from higher interest rates as it's on track to generate close to $1 billion in interest income this year, giving it a significant boost on the bottom line.

I’m betting on an uptick in shareholder interest in the short term at these price levels.

I was a little uncomfortable chasing it higher from $170, but $150 is more reasonable and I do believe the Fed pivot tailwinds could catapult us into profits with this trade.

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day

Tech Letter

“He does not possess wealth; it possesses him.” – Said Benjamin Franklin

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/benjamin-franklin.png 394 302 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-13 14:00:052024-05-13 15:24:53May 13, 2024 - Quote of the Day
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 13, 2024

Jacque's Post

 

(REITS ARE DUE FOR A TURNAROUND SOON)

May 13, 2024

 

Hello everyone.

 

Week ahead calendar

Monday, May 13

Switzerland Consumer Confidence

Previous: -38

Time: 3:00am ET

 

Tuesday, May 14

8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (April)

UK Unemployment Rate

Previous: 4.2%

Time: 2:00am ET

Earnings:  Home Depot, Charles Schwab

 

Wednesday, May 15

8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (April)

Previous: 3.8%

8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings (April)

8:30 a.m. Average Workweek (April)

8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (May)

8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (April)

10 a.m. Business Inventories (March)

10 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

Earnings: Progressive, Cisco.

 

Thursday, May 16

8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (April)

8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (05/04)

8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (April)

8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (April)

8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (April)

8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/11)

8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (May)

9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (April)

9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (April)

9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (April)

China Retail Sales

Previous: 3.1%

Time: 10pm ET

Earnings:  Take-Two Interactive Software, Applied Materials, Walmart, Deere.

 

Friday, May 17

10 a.m. Leading Indictors (April)

Euro Area Inflation Rate (final)

Previous: 2.4%

Time: 5am ET

The economic data this week is rather light apart from the US CPI on Wednesday. 

The Real Estate Sector is Oversold

Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist, and leader of the Investment Strategy Group at BMO sees opportunity for investors in the real estate sector which is currently oversold.

Belski notes that the REITS sector is the only S&P500 sector that is in the red this year, off 6%.

He believes the sector will turnaround in the coming months and is recommending that investors use the current weakness as a dip buying opportunity.

There are only four other periods, Belski argues, that this sector has showed abnormal underperformance.  In the year following such troughs, real estate investment trusts outperformed the S&P500 by about 17%, on average.

Listed here are BMO’s REITS rated to outperform.

 

 

These REITS also pay dividends. For example, Boston Properties pays a dividend yield of 6.4%.  The company develops, owns, and manages workspaces across the country, including New York and San Francisco.  Belski believes there is a slow return to the office taking place.

Data Centre REIT, Equinix, will benefit immensely from the rapidly developing landscape of AI.  In a statement, CEO Charles Meyers said that “digital initiatives will drive long term revenue growth and operational efficiency.”  If BMO’s price target is any guide, Equinix has 25% upside ahead.

 

 

Ventas is also down about 4% year to date.  The company’s investments include senior housing communities, which stand to benefit from the aging population.  The stock which yields 3.8% has roughly 7% upside to BMO’s price target.

Host Hotels & Resorts, which owns luxury and upper-upscale hotels is down nearly 6% this year.  Like Equinix, BMO’s price target sees it rallying 25%.  This company has a 4.4% dividend yield.  Earlier this month, the company posted a revenue beat, and upped its full-year funds-from-operations and revenue guidance.

Market Update:

S&P500 – Bull market in progress.  The market is still interpreted to be undergoing a final 5th wave advance onto new highs for the year (around 5,700).

GOLD – New highs are ahead.  Looking for a rally to around an initial target of 2400 and then onto 2500-2550.

BITCOIN – Waiting for the next advance.  Support lies around $60k/$59k.  Looking for an upside target around $80k in the next several weeks to months.

 

QI Corner

 

 

Fees make all the difference.

 

 

Northern Lights

 

 

Cheers

Jacquie

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