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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

How to Handle the Friday February 16 Options Expiration

Diary, Newsletter

Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own five deep-in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, February 16 and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.

This involves the:

 

Current Capital at Risk

Risk On

(MSFT) 2/$330-$340 call spread       10.00%

(AMZN) 2/$130-$135 call spread        10.00%

(V) 2/$240-$250 call spread                 10.00%

(PANW) 2/$260-$270 call spread      10.00%

(CCJ) 2/$38-$41 call spread                  10.00%

 

Risk Off

NO POSITIONS

 

Total Net Position                                     50.00%

 

Total Aggregate Position                        50.00%

 

I’ll do the math for you on our deepest in-the-money position, the Amazon (AMZN) 2/$130-$135 call spread which I will almost certainly run into expiration.

Provided that we don’t have another monster move down in the market in two trading days, this position should expire at its maximum profit point.

So far, so good.

Your profit can be calculated as follows:

Profit: $5.00 expiration value - $4.30 cost = $0.70 net profit

(25 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.70 profit per option)

= $1,750 or 16.28% in 27 trading days.

Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.

The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.

You don’t have to do anything.

Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.

The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning February 19 and the margin freed up.

Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.

If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.

Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.

If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.

Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.

This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”

One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.

I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.

I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next quarter's end.

Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.

Well done, and on to the next trade.

 

 

You Can’t Do Enough Research

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/girls.png 447 479 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-14 09:02:272024-02-14 09:59:40How to Handle the Friday February 16 Options Expiration
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) February 13, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 13:08:482024-02-13 13:08:48Trade Alert - (NVDA) February 13, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 13, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
February 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(PILL PUSHERS IN PERIL)

(CVS), (WBA), (RADCQ), (SBUX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 12:02:242024-02-13 10:55:09February 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Pill Pushers in Peril

Biotech Letter

Once upon a time, in the not-so-distant 1980s, national pharmacy chains sprouted up across the American landscape like mushrooms after a rainstorm.

They nestled into every nook and cranny of our lives, from the bustling urban streets to the tranquil rural towns, becoming as ubiquitous as the local diner.

Fast forward to 2010, and their numbers had climbed from 18,600 to a staggering 22,500.

It was a golden era for these giants. Like a high school jock on prom night, Walgreens (WBA) and CVS Health (CVS) were on top of the world. Their share prices did the financial equivalent of bench pressing 300 pounds, ballooning to about 14 times their original size between 1995 and 2015, while the S&P 500 merely did a respectable fourfold increase.

Walgreens' wallet got a lot thicker, going from a total revenue of $42.2 billion in 2005 to a hefty $103.4 billion a decade later.

CVS wasn't far behind, with its treasure chest growing from $37 billion to an eye-watering $153.3 billion.

But as the saying goes, what goes up must come down. Today, the once invincible giants are feeling the squeeze, like a middle-aged man trying to fit into his high school jeans.

The tale of woe includes Rite Aid's (RADCQ) bankruptcy bow in October 2023, CVS's share price taking a more than 30% nosedive over two years, and pharmacists so fed up they're leaving their posts faster than rats from a sinking ship.

The crux of their dilemma? A dwindling stream of reimbursement rates from the pharmacy benefit managers, akin to trying to drink a milkshake through a cocktail straw.

Walgreens saw its adjusted operating income from its U.S. retail pharmacy division shrink by 31.1%, from $5.4 billion in 2016 to a more modest $3.7 billion in 2023.

In a similar bind, CVS saw its profits dip, leading to a drastic measure: closing up shop on hundreds of stores.

Despite these turbulent times, the enduring importance of chain pharmacies in the U.S. healthcare system cannot be overstated. They continue to play a crucial role, dispensing everything from life-saving medications to the latest in blood pressure tech.

The question now is, what's next for these once mighty titans? So far, we can see that both CVS and Walgreens are attempting a Hail Mary, broadening their healthcare horizons in hopes of justifying their sprawling presence across the nation.

Over the coming years, a significant transformation is expected to happen to Walgreens and CVS, with the brands likely to streamline their presence. With an extensive network of physical outlets, these companies are confronted with the inevitable: the need for a massive workforce and substantial resources, all of which escalate operational costs and complexities.

In an age where efficiency is king — think Starbucks (SBUX) with its pivot to drive-thru exclusives — it stands to reason that Walgreens and CVS might steer in a similar direction.

Actually, Walgreens has already dabbled in new solutions like drone delivery, a venture that aligns perfectly with the future of quick and efficient distribution of essentials, including medicines, to its customer base.

The next thing to consider is how dramatic this downsizing will be. Looking a decade ahead, we can anticipate a considerable shrinkage in their storefronts, possibly with a shift towards more compact, delivery- and pick-up-friendly formats.

As they move forward with these changes, one thing remains clear: the landscape of American healthcare and retail is evolving, and with it, these pharma giants need to adapt or risk being left behind in the annals of history, remembered as nothing more than relics of a bygone era.

The stories of these national pharmacy chains are far from over, but the next chapters promise to be as unpredictable as they are compelling. So grab your popcorn. This is one show you won't want to miss.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 12:00:402024-02-13 10:54:57Pill Pushers in Peril
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (MSFT) February 16, 2024 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 11:56:102024-02-13 11:56:10Trade Alert - (MSFT) February 16, 2024 - EXPIRATION AT MAX PROFIT
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trade Alert - (NVDA) February 13, 2024 - BUY

Trade Alert

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Alert-e1457452190575.jpg 135 150 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 11:35:122024-02-13 11:35:12Trade Alert - (NVDA) February 13, 2024 - BUY
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 13, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 13, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT THE ECONOMIST BIG MAC INDEX IS TELLING US NOW),
(FXF), (FXE), (FXA), (CYB)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 09:04:272024-02-13 10:04:06February 13, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

What The Economist “Big Mac” Index is Telling Us Now

Diary, Newsletter

The Swiss franc is wildly overvalued, as are the Norwegian kroner and the Uruguayan peso. On the other hand, the Venezuelan bolivar, UAE dirham, and the Brazilian real off real value.

Who has the cheapest currency in the world? The Ukrainian hryvnia, which at 25 cents to the US dollar offers the cheapest Big Mac in the world. I had one in October, and they taste just the same, but is a bargain at $5.00. That explains the proliferation of McDonald's hamburger stands in the capital city of Kiev. They are always packed.

With interest rates and inflation the urgent topics of the day, everyone has their favorite inflation indicator. The Fed has money supply growth, you have yours, and well, I have mine.

My former employer, The Economist, once the ever-tolerant editor of my flabby, disjointed, and juvenile prose (Thanks Peter and Marjorie), released its “Big Mac” index of international currency valuations in 1987.

Although initially launched as a joke, I have followed it religiously and found it an amazingly accurate predictor of future economic success. The heart attack on a plate costs $5.69 in most of the US.

The Economist index counts the cost of McDonald’s (MCD) premium sandwiches around the world, ranging from 142% the cost of an American Big Mac in Switzerland to only 84.5% in Brazil, and comes up with a measure of currency under and overvaluation.

I couldn’t agree more with many of these conclusions. It’s as if the August weekly publication was tapping The Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader for ideas.

I am no longer the frequent consumer of Big Macs that I once was, as my metabolism has slowed to such an extent that in eating one, you might as well tape it directly to my middle. Better to use it as an economic forecasting tool, than a speedy lunch.

Having followed this index religiously for 37 years, I am able to make some astute long-term observations. For a start, the US dollar has been at the top of the range for most of its life. This is because the US has had the best major economic growth rate over the last four decades, averaging a real 3.0%.

Another factor is that America has also had the world’s highest large economy interest rates, thanks to a very tough inflation-fighting Federal Reserve. I doubt Jay Powell eats Big Macs. He’s too thin.

You will also find that the cheap end of the range is always populated by the same countries year in and year out. These are poorly governed, money-printing, economically chaotic countries with little regard for their currencies. Don’t cry for me Argentina and throw in Venezuela. They will always be cheap. Invest there at your peril.

And yes, making your currency calls based on the price of hamburgers has its risks. But it does give me a wonderful excuse to travel around the world taking pictures of fast-food stands.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Big Mac in Swiss francs is Definitely Not a Buy

 

But it’s the Deal of the Century in Kiev

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/mcdonalds.png 810 1080 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-02-13 09:02:112024-02-13 10:03:58What The Economist “Big Mac” Index is Telling Us Now
Douglas Davenport

THE ORACLE’S ODDBALL

Mad Hedge AI

(SNOW), (BRK.B), (KO), (AAPL), (BAC), (AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NET), (DDOG), (MDB)

The legendary Warren Buffett, a man who's as synonymous with cherry Coke as he is with savvy investments, has a knack for picking stocks that resonate with the American spirit. 

His powerhouse, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), is a treasure trove of investments that scream "USA!" from the top of their lungs, boasting big names like Coca-Cola (KO), Apple (AAPL), and Bank of America (BAC). 

But, among the classic Americana, there lurks a tech unicorn that's not your typical Buffett bet: Snowflake (SNOW).

Snowflake, a cloud data platform, might not be the first thing that comes to mind when you think of consumer-driven stocks. Yet, Berkshire Hathaway has thrown $1.2 billion into this high-flyer, even though it's seen better days, price-wise. 

Despite its shares plummeting 50% from their zenith, Snowflake could very well be the dark horse in Berkshire's stable, with the potential to gallop ahead in the long run.

Why the excitement around Snowflake, you ask? Well, it's all about data. 

In the era of artificial intelligence (AI), where ChatGPT has become everyone's new best friend, the real MVP behind the scenes is data.  Snowflake is like the Marie Kondo of data - it helps businesses tidy up their digital mess, making sure everything sparks joy... or, in this case, insights.

Imagine trying to make sense of data scattered across different cloud services like Amazon's (AMZN), Microsoft's (MSFT), and Alphabet's (GOOGL). That’s pretty much like trying to assemble a jigsaw puzzle with pieces from different boxes. 

Snowflake's platform is the table that lets you lay out all the pieces, clearly see the big picture, and actually do something useful with it.

With the world becoming more digital by the minute, the amount of data we're producing is frankly crazy. It's estimated that 90% of the world's data was generated in just the last 2 years. Let that sink in. 

And, this digital deluge shows no signs of abating, making Snowflake's usage-based billing model an attractive proposition for businesses looking to scale their data operations without breaking the bank. 

With a net revenue retention (NRR) rate of 135%, Snowflake's appeal is evident, reflecting its capacity to grow its revenue base without needing to constantly hunt for new clients.

And Snowflake's business model is brilliantly simple yet genius: pay as you go, which means as the digital universe expands, so does Snowflake's wallet.

Financially, Snowflake is as robust as they come, with over $2.6 billion in annual revenue and a pretty 24% of that turning into free cash flow. 

The market looks to be bullish on this company, with Wall Street predicting a 61% annual earnings growth. 

However, let's not sugarcoat it. Snowflake doesn’t come cheap. In fact, it’s more expensive than its peers like Cloudflare (NET), Datadog (DDOG) or MongoDB (MDB).

Still, Snowflake's appeal is in its strategic moves, including securing FedRAMP authorization to engage with federal agencies, signaling its ambition to broaden its horizons beyond the private sector. 

This pivot not only diversifies its potential revenue streams but also positions Snowflake as a formidable contender in the cloud data arena, potentially encroaching on territories traditionally dominated by companies like Palantir (PLTR).

The stock's current valuation might make some investors sweaty, but for those willing to bet on Snowflake's continued expansion and growth, a long-term hold could be as rewarding as finding a rare vintage in your uncle's basement. 

Consider a strategy of dollar-cost averaging to mitigate the risk of its high-flying valuation. It's like adding spices to a stew; you don't dump them all in at once, but a little bit over time to get the flavor just right.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-12-163007.jpg 744 745 Douglas Davenport https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Douglas Davenport2024-02-12 16:32:222024-02-12 16:32:22THE ORACLE’S ODDBALL
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

February 12, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 12, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE AI WAR STOCK)
(PLTR), (SMCI), (NVDA)

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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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