I am often asked which semiconductor company to buy. After all, this is not just the high beta play for the stock market as a whole, but the entire economy as well.
When times are good, consumers can’t get enough chips to stockpile. When they are bad, they are used as landfill. Semiconductors are the economy on a bungee cord.
For the past five years, the answer was always the same: top-end graphics card maker Nvidia (NVDA).
It was a great call. Since my initial recommendation in 2015, the stock has soared by tenfold, one of several ten-baggers I have been able to rake in during recent years.
Now it’s time to call the next ten-bagger.
That’s easy enough: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
(AMD) is an American multinational semiconductor company based in Santa Clara, California that develops computer processors and related technologies for business and consumer markets.
While it initially manufactured its own processors, the company later outsourced all its manufacturing, a practice known as going fabless, after GlobalFoundries was spun off in 2009. Chip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) currently produces (AMD)'s chips.
AMD's main products include microprocessors, motherboard chipsets, embedded processors, and graphics processors for servers, workstations, personal computers, and embedded system applications.
In 2019, (AMD) brought in $6.48 billion in revenues, $631 million in operating revenue, and $341 million in net profits. It pays no dividend. For the current quarter, (AMD) expects revenue to rise an eye-popping 42% year over year to $2.55 billion.
The company was considered a lagging “also ran” for years, the poor cousin of Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), and powerhouse Nvidia (NVDA).
Then Lisa Hsu took over in 2014. It has been straight up ever since. She immediately launched into a new generation of faster and more efficient chips, such as the Ryzen PC processors and Epyc server chips in 2017.
(AMD) now expects to ship its first revolutionary 7-nanometer processors in late 2022 or early 2023. Next to follow will be once unimaginable 3-nanometer processors. Now we are trying to get single electrons to go through gates.
AMD is also working with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and nearby Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the El Capitan supercomputer for the U.S. Department of Energy. That gives the company another big advantage in developing new chip technologies.
As a result of (AMD)’s Herculean efforts, Intel was left behind in the dust, as its share price amply demonstrates.
Despite its recent ballistic growth (AMD) is still the smaller of the major chip companies. Its market capitalization stands at only $90 billion, compared to $209 billion for fading (INTC) and a monster $308 billion for (NVDA). Yet (AMD) boasts a higher growth rate.
If a global economic recovery ensues in 2021, (AMD) will be your play. As the move online vastly accelerates thanks to the pandemic, a global chip shortage is in the cards. Earnings, multiples, and share prices should all go up. The recent economic data from China shows that we are certainly headed in that direction.
Use this major selloff to stick your toe into (AMD).
To learn more about Advanced Micro Devices, please visit their website by clicking here.
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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Cashless payments have gained a major foothold into consumer’s lives all brought about by the pandemic, according to a new consumer survey.
This transformational trend is just another reason traders should look at Fintech firm Square (SQ) which has been one of my favorite tech stocks for the past 2 years.
The never-ending pandemic has accelerated the trend toward cashless transactions and the digit economy.
Conversely, the non-cashless society has taken the brunt of the pain in the form of job losses and the jobless rates remain stubbornly high in the Northeast and West trending above 10% in 10 states in the U.S. last month.
It’s clear which area of the economy to invest in and that’s digital payments.
Before the pandemic, in February 2020, 5.4% of Square sellers in the US were cashless, which Square defines as any business accepting more than 95% of their sales by in-person credit or debit card payments, online payments, or contactless payments.
Moving to April, that number soared to 23.2% and by August, when many stay-at-home restrictions were lifted, it was 30%.
To highlight the trend away from a hard currency society, for payments transacted by Square sellers, the share of cash transactions dropped from 37% in February to 33% in April at the height of the lockdown.
Square delivered an analysis indicating it would take over four years to achieve this oversized cashless drop.
That is the underlying story of the pandemic – multiple years of digital transformation and acceleration scrunched into 7 months.
Not only have the secular trends strengthened tech’s fundamentals, but the employees themselves have collaborated to deliver new products such as On-Demand Pay which will allow Square merchant employees to take a cash advance of up to $200 with no fee. The second service is Instant Payments which allows sellers to fund their payroll from their Square Seller account, speeding up the transaction.
Both services take advantage of the increasing number of consumers using Cash App, delivering wider access to cash for both employers and employees. The synergies between Square's consumer and seller ecosystem is a significant competitive advantage for the company that should drive continued adoption of its products and services.
Scaling the individual ecosystem, cross-selling services within each ecosystem, and finally connecting the ecosystem has been an effective three-prong strategy for Square’s management.
These are services that minimize business risk and an example of how it can disrupt the old way of handling something like payroll. As the two ecosystems grow, Square may find other areas where it can create value between them.
The new products will improve adoption for Payroll among merchants while boosting Cash App adoption and the direct-deposit feature in particular.
Both services will boost increased balances in seller and Cash App accounts. That should increase the appeal of other Square services like the Square Card or Cash Card. It could also lead to more Cash App users investing or sending cash to friends.
It would make sense that greater balances in seller accounts would produce similar results on the seller side. And as Square merchants use more than one service from the company, Square can start offering even better deals to sellers.
In the future, other products that could be rolled out include avenues like loyalty programs, lending products, or other ways to facilitate commerce. Square is just getting started, but the fintech company's new Payroll products show the potential to create significant change in the small business financial services industry and seize market share.
Contrast the bustling activity happening in the fintech space with brick and mortar stores and the difference couldn’t be starker.
The follow-through has been vivid with Square’s shares lurching higher by 150%.
Not only do Square’s engineers work together to create more revenue-building products at scale, but Square is feasting from a once in a generation pivot to mobile digital payments.
Square’s formula has been a recipe for success proving that the road to Damascus is shorter than it seems.
I am highly bullish Square.
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“You don't have to start from scratch to do something interesting.” – Said CEO of Twitter and Square Jack Dorsey
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While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.Read more
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Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter September 24, 2020 Fiat Lux
(PLAY YOUR CARDS RIGHT WITH MODERNA) (MRNA), (PFE), (AZN), (BNTX), (JNJ), (MRK), (VRTX), (CRSP)
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